Part One of : Population and price Comparisons of Various MS and PR Type Coins

coinguy1

As per this thread link to trial balloon thread on this topic I have started with a couple of copper type coins, namely Indian Head Cents and Two Cent Pieces. If it appears that there is enough interest in this subject matter, I will post on additional coin types, including nickel and silver coinage, in subsequent threads.

A few comments, disclaimers and explanations before I get started:

1) I have cited population figures as reported in the July, 2004 PCGS Population Report.

2) I have cited bids as listed in the September 24, 2004 Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter (CCDN). I am utilizing that publication instead of the Coin dealer Newsletter because the latter does not list prices for some of the grades included in this exercise.

3) I do not claim that coins trade at the levels listed in the CCDN.

4) I have chosen coins of the grade(s) that I think might interest the greatest number of people and which allow for at least a somewhat practical/fair comparison of populations and prices.

5) A number of factors can and do account for what appear to be high (or low) relative prices for certain coins, based upon their reported populations.

6) If someone would like to present this information in a better/nicer format for the benefit of the forum, please feel free to do so.

7) I cannot guarantee that my figures have been recorded accurately and apologize in advance if I have made any errors.

8) I welcome and encourage your feedback - your opinions, explanations, analysis, etc.

9) I will refrain from sharing my thoughts on this data until others have had time to post theirs. (see #7 above)

Indian Head Cents:
MS63RB population 3904 CCDN Bid $36 PR63RB population 1599 CCDN bid $105
MS63RD population 728 CCDN bid $53 PR63RD population 187 CCDN bid $130
MS64RB population 8337 CCDN bid $55 PR64RB population 4025 CCDN bid $140
MS64RD population 5850 CCDN bid $124 PR64RD population 1496 CCDN bid $235
MS65RB population 2014 CCDN bid $110 PR65RB population 1799 CCDN bid $220
MS65RD population 3896 CCDN bid $290 PR65RD population 1057 CCDN bid $800
MS66RB population 84 CCDN bid $200 PR66RB population 378 CCDN bid $400
MS66RD population 944 CCDN bid $750 PR66RD population 447 CCDN bid $1460

Two Cent Pieces:
MS63RB population 1094 CCDN bid $104 PR63RB population 287 PR63RB bid $317
MS63RD population 52 CCDN bid $280 PR63RD population 43 CCDN bid $420
MS64RB population 1821 CCDN bid $170 PR64RB population 739 CCDN bid $367
MS64RD population 520 CCDN bid $425 PR64RD population 275 CCDN bid $650
MS65RB population 607 CCDN bid $340 PR65RB population 503 CCDN bid $550
MS65RD population 503 CCDN bid $900 PR65RD population 267 CCDN bid $1480
MS66RB population 31 CCDN bid $885 PR66RB population 78 CCDN bid $840
MS66RD population 100 CCDN bid $2400 PR66RD population 84 CCDN bid $2350

mgoodm3

IHC's seem to follow the price vs. populations fairly well. The pops for proof are almost all lower for proof than MS, and the prices are acordingly higher. Dang, I wold love to buy proof IHC's at those prices.

2c'ers also seem to follow the price vs slabbed numbers.

coinguy1

Please tell me that is not the end of your replies?

Baley

In every case, I think, there are fewer proofs, and they cost more. They (proofs) may or may not be more attractive or otherwise desireable, but regardless, they cost more, if one compares similar grades.

I'm not sure what else i can glean from the data, coinguy can you guide the discussion a little bit?

relayer

<< <i>Please tell me that is not the end of your replies? >>



Yep - that was it. Hope it didn't waste too much of your time

RYK

Mark,

I was one of the first to request that you proceed with the analysis, and I appreciate your effort in doing so. The results of your analysis so far are not especially interesting for me. I do not follow the series that you chose to report, and I was admittedly expecting to see some huge counter-intuitive price dislocations.

Plus, I am too busy "ttt"ing posts on the BST board to give this issue much thought. Later.

michael

i like this analysis and

for me

it shows two cents and indians both proofs and ms coins are undervalued in relation to other more modern series and evenmoreso the ms coins

but the proofs are more flashier and also more popular so to me demand is the key to price

michael

magikbilly

Hi Mark,
I also agree that this data is valuable and the subject will provide a good read and the basis for much subsequent conversation. I will speak for myself and say that the format the data is presented in is apparently playing extreme havoc with my unequal astigmatism. I am simply unable to read it through and it is very confusing (not intellectually - visually ) it actually makes me nervous to look at if you can believe that LOL. Maybe if it were reformatted, as you mentioned. I will thank you in advance for what was certainly time well spent. I appreciate it and will read it - perhaps I will break it up a bit right now in my word program.

Thanks for your efforts!
Billy

relayer

It’s a fickle crowd.

I tried to see if there was something I could learn from this information but the problem is comparing apples with oranges and pears and grapefruit.

There are three attributes categorized here
1) Production Method
2) Strike
3) Designation

Trying to compare those attributes against each other while applying the population to determine a value is, like grading, subjective.

Production Method MS vs. PR
The first split has to be the Production Method, since a Proof is manufactured to be better than a Business Strike.

If we first split the list by Production Method, then strike and then designation (for the 2c pieces) we have these groups.

MS Production, RB Designations
MS63RB 1094 $ 104.00
MS64RB 1821 $ 170.00
MS65RB 607 $ 340.00
MS66RB 31 $ 885.00

MS Production RD Designations
MS63RD 52 $ 280.00
MS64RD 520 $ 425.00
MS65RD 503 $ 900.00
MS66RD 100 $2,400.00

PR Production RB Designation
PR63RB 287 $ 317.00
PR64RB 739 $ 367.00
PR64RB 503 $ 550.00
PR66RB 78 $ 840.00

PR Production RD Designation
PR63RD 43 $ 420.00
PR64RD 275 $ 650.00
PR65RD 267 $1,480.00
PR66RD 84 $2,350.00

Strike vs. Designation

Sorting by Production type, then value, we see that the designation increases the value more than the strike (i.e. a 63-RD is worth more than a 64-RB)

$ 104.00 MS 63 RB
$ 170.00 MS 64 RB
$ 280.00 MS 63 RD
$ 340.00 MS 65 RB
$ 425.00 MS 64 RD
$ 885.00 MS 66 RB
$ 900.00 MS 65 RD
$ 2,400.00 MS 66 RD

$ 317.00 PR 63 RB
$ 367.00 PR 64 RB
$ 420.00 PR 63 RD
$ 550.00 PR 64 RD
$ 650.00 PR 65 RB
$ 840.00 PR 66 RB
$ 1,480.00 PR 65 RD
$ 2,350.00 PR 66 RD

If all 16 types are sorted in ascending order by value

MS63RB 1094 $ 104.00
MS64RB 1821 $ 170.00
MS63RD 52 $ 280.00
PR63RB 287 $ 317.00
MS65RB 607 $ 340.00
PR64RB 739 $ 367.00
PR63RD 43 $ 420.00
MS64RD 520 $ 425.00
PR64RB 503 $ 550.00
PR64RD 275 $ 650.00
PR66RB 78 $ 840.00
MS66RB 31 $ 885.00
MS65RD 503 $ 900.00
PR65RD 267 $ 1,480.00
PR66RD 84 $ 2,350.00
MS66RD 100 $ 2,400.00

The progression of the attributes that increase the value is
1) Production Type (MS is valued less and PR)
2) Strike (Strike is valued less than designation)
3) Designation

Populations Affect on Value

Assuming the most desired coin is worth the stated value ($2,400 for MS 66RD and $2,350 for PF66RD) this shows what the price SHOULD be on lower levels.

This shows the type,grade and designation with the cumulative population.
For example if there are 100 available for $2,400 the next group of 503 with equal attributes should be worth 1/6th of the since there are 5 times as many available.

MS 66 RD 100 $ 2,400.00
MS 65 RD 603 $ 398.01
MS 66 RB 634 $ 378.55
MS 64 RD 1154 $ 207.97
MS 65 RB 1761 $ 136.29
MS 63 RD 1813 $ 132.38
MS 64 RB 3634 $ 66.04
MS 63 RB 4728 $ 50.76

PR 66 RD 84 $ 2,350.00
PR 65 RD 351 $ 562.39
PR 66 RB 429 $ 460.14
PR 65 RB 704 $ 280.40
PR 64 RD 1207 $ 163.55
PR 63 RD 1250 $ 157.92
PR 64 RB 1989 $ 99.25
PR 63 RB 2276 $ 86.73

Summary

1) Designation is more important than strike
2) Proofs are valued more than business strikes (except when they are not)
3) Population numbers don’t affect the price proportionally to the supply
4) Coin pricing has no basis in logic
5) I wasted more time than coinguy1 did on this project

RYK

Relayer,

I like your analysis, especially point #5.

ziggy29

Part of the problem in digesting this is trying to determine the role crackouts and resubmissions are playing.

My gut would tell me that this game is played more with MS coins than proof coins, but admittedly I don't know.

coinguy1

Thanks guys. I will add other types next week and make some observations after doing so. I will also check into the possibility of presenting the date in a different/better format.

zenny

Thanks Mark, your topics are often thought provoking, if not quite as amusing as coin-a-lot.

Small red/brown thingies aren't really my thingy, but interesting so far, nonetheless.


z

Trime

Sorry I missed this thread last week. The information readily available to everyone is worth understanding. Relayer did the work necessary to begin an understanding of "market vakuation"

BASEagle

Thanks, Mark, for your work. Within the Indian Head Cents there are a few years where the proofs sell for less than the MS coins. Like 1872, MS65RD - $30,000 PR65RD $6,250 (these prices are from the PCGS price guide). Also, 1877, MS65RD $27,500 PR65RD $15,000.

Thanks,

Mike