Market Report- Just Posted

JohnMaben

Hope you enjoy it. Comments/suggestions/questions always welcome.

Regards,
John

John Maben's Fall Market Report

roadrunner

Thanks for your comments John. Gold has certainly been helping the rare coin market along since early 2002 and I expect the trend to continue. It will be a rocky road up and down, but the trend will be decidedly up until our economic mess is sorted out. This won't happen in 12 months nor even 24 months. Contrary to the majority stated on the this forum, gold is headed upwards long term and it certainly makes sense that coins will benefit greatly from the association.

roadrunner

JohnMaben

Amen. I am afraid that neither President Bush or John Kerry represent a solution to the many problems we face as a nation, but I will still support Bush. Over time our great nation will fix it's problems as we always have and continue to be the best nation in the world. Sorry, for going off here on a political tangent.

John

UncleWiggly

How do you get to look at your inventory for what you have to sell? I didn't see any coins on your site.

Jerry

JohnMaben

Uncle,

It will be a while before I am able to do that. Too many things going on right now. However, if you grab a Coin World from Sept 27th, page 43, you'll get a real good idea of what I try to keep in inventory, all NGC & PCGS certified, though it is only a fraction of what I currently have. I am thinking about imaging every coin in my retail inventory so I can email the image to prospective buyers, but in the meanwhile I do offer a 10 day no questions return option. Email me with your wants and I'll see if I can help you, thanks.

John

mrearlygold

<< <i>Amen. I am afraid that neither President Bush or John Kerry represent a solution to the many problems we face as a nation, but I will still support Bush. Over time our great nation will fix it's problems as we always have

John >>





Really? How do you reckon a 7+ Trillion dollar debt's going to be "fixed" and when was the last time that happened?


Tom

dollardude

Good report on one of my favorite topics here, thank you. Also congratulations on your business doing so well. Unfortunately, I agree that the price of gold is becoming more connected with rare coins. The two should remain mostly separate, IMO. However, the price of precious metals will, to some degree, always be tied to rare coins, as the market of potential buyers is generally the same.

darktone

<< <i>How do you get to look at your inventory for what you have to sell? I didn't see any coins on your site. >>

That would be considered spamming the boards if you linked your website with stuff for sale. It's just fine this way I think? mike

OnlyBuffalos

The US government debt is considerably over 7 trillion if one considers the unfunded obligations of the USA if one projects out over the next 75 years. The shortfall is approximately 75 trillion for Social Security, Hospital Insurance, Medicare Part B and the new Medicare Part D (new prescription drug plan). The $75 trillion is net of future expected taxes and is in today's dollars according to the Trustees for Social Security and Medicare.

We could be headed for a Bananna Republic inflation syle economy.

roadrunner

Mr. Early, addressing that $7 TRILLION defict almost certainly means not getting re-elected. And don't forget that without tossing in the annual overpayments from Social Security payments, our deficit would be growing hundreds of $$ Billions per year more. Within the next 10 years those overpayments will be used up each year just to pay growing SS benefits. We won't even talk about how to cover the $45-72 TRILLION in unfunded liabilities projected out over the next several decades. There's no money in the bank yet for that.

roadrunner

mrearlygold

<< <i>Mr. Early, addressing that $7 TRILLION defict almost certainly means not getting re-elected. And don't forget that without tossing in the annual overpayments from Social Security payments, our deficit would be growing hundreds of $$ Billions per year more. Within the next 10 years those overpayments will be used up each year just to pay growing SS benefits. We won't even talk about how to cover the $45-72 TRILLION in unfunded liabilities projected out over the next several decades. There's no money in the bank yet for that.

roadrunner >>





Well of course Mr R and after all, it's all in the name of "Freedom".

Tom

BAJJERFAN

Maybe its not all that important that the debt be paid or even reduced. If it was I would have to believe that smoeone would be doing smoething about it. When the interest on it eats up all of the tax receipts then smoeone might start to worry.

TWQG

The national debt is a small fraction of this economy's output. In fact it was much larger as a percentage of GDP in 1991 than it is today and we weren't involved in world war III at that time.
The sky is not quite falling yet.

BAJJERFAN

They have been using that logic for at least the last 50 years.

Would it be a desirable situation if no individual or company or government owed anyone anything from a monetary standpoint?

roadrunner

The national debt is a small fraction of this economy's output. In fact it was much larger as a percentage of GDP in 1991 than it is today and we weren't involved in world war III at that time.
The sky is not quite falling yet.

What do you consider a small % of our economy's output? Considering that our GDP is in the range of just over $10 TRILLION doesn't 70% of our output seem like a lot of debt? It does to me.
The definition of banana republic starts with a debt ratio a lot lower than 70%. The only difference is that we are still the world's major power and our dollar is the world's reserve currency. If we continue on our current course that will no longer be the case.

If you earned say $75,000 per year would you consider $50,000 in debt to be a good place to be? Doesn't sound good to me. And as others have said, the $7 TRILLION is only the immediate debt. We have promised to pay another $72 TRILLION over the next 75 years.
That's real big-time debt. Social security starts going negative within 10 years (inflows will be less than payments made) as baby boomers retire. I doubt any real fix will be discussed until that time.

roadrunner

mrearlygold

<< <i>Maybe its not all that important that the debt be paid or even reduced. If it was I would have to believe that smoeone would be doing smoething about it. When the interest on it eats up all of the tax receipts then smoeone might start to worry. >>





Really? Do you know what your share of the debt is? Do you know what it was a year ago and what's being accumulated on a monthy basis? This is of course what's in addition to every other kind of theft the government lays on us.

The blind faith that "someone would be doing something about it" is one of the reasons why this place has gone from creditor to debtor in a span of 25 years.

They ARE doing something about it. They're spending more and as such are stealing and will steal more.

Look at my website and take a gander at the debt clock, Then click on it and see what everyone in your family owes. Do that for a couple weeks and you'll get a clearer view as to what direction this is going in.

Far as the dollar is concerned, you would be hard pressed to find anyone in Asia other than Japan who will willingly accept dollars as payment at this point. Even places like Thailand which is 3rd world will reject them in the vast majority of places.

It wasn't like that just a decade ago.

Tom

tradedollarnut

Would I be worried about $50k in debt if I earned $75k per year? Depends - is it credit card debt spent on convenience items frittered away - or real estate debt accumulated when I bought my house that's appreciating faster than inflation? It definitely matters. Just like it matters what the debt our country is accumulating is utilized for as well.

Blanket statements about debt, the state of the economy and the country are rarely wise. With that said, I'll break my own rule and state that W is an empty figurehead surrounded by very smart, very dangerous people with their own agenda. It's time for a change.

mrearlygold

Blanket statements about debt, the state of the economy and the country are rarely wise. With that said, I'll break my own rule and state that W is an idiot surrounded by very smart, very dangerous people with their own agenda. It's time for a change. >>





And if you think there's any difference between the 2 idiots who are running, the you have another thing coming.


Tom

Catch22

I've always said that betting against America is a sucker's bet. Nowhere on this planet exists the degree of incentive for prosperity and achievement. Betting against America is like betting against humanity. However, I will concede that the commielibs are doing their best to put America on a more equal footing with the rest of the World...equally poor and socialized for the greater good of the slackers.

mrearlygold

However, I will concede that the commielibs are doing their best to put America on a more equal footing with the rest of the World...equally poor and socialized for the greater good of the slackers. >>





Yup and they're on both sides of the aisle.

Tom

roadrunner

I've always said that betting against America is a sucker's bet. Nowhere on this planet exists the degree of incentive for prosperity and achievement. Betting against America is like betting against humanity. However, I will concede that the commielibs are doing their best to put America on a more equal footing with the rest of the World...equally poor and socialized for the greater good of the slackers.

Hey, I though the Bushwhackers stayed over on the Open Forum? In any case, anyone who blindly believes that it is our birthright to be rich, lazy, and get benefits for free, has another thing coming. Yes, things have come fairly easy the past 25 years....all by the magic of credit and debt. History shows us that every powerful nation that built its power on fiat currency and then debt, eventually lost that power & wealth. We are not the first to be in this situation and won't be the last. To believe that we are special and can avoid the same fate by following the EXACT same course of action is folly. America is actually betting against itself and there is nothing we can do about it short of reforming our current "1" party system and ever-increasing govt scope. Having a net worth of "-$50,000" when one only makes $75,000/yr is just NOT where I would want to be. But I believe like TDN that its time for a change. With every Dubya "smirk" I see, I can just hear GW thinking: "those poor bums haven't a clue on how badly Dick and I are screwing them and their grandkids."
The past 4 years shows that GW has done a pretty good job of giving out handouts for just about everything. Seems like he's a neolib at heart.

roadrunner

Coinosaurus

RR-

Having 50K of debt on a 75K salary is NOT a big deal. It means you pay 3K a year in interest - 4 whole points of your salary. Unless you have 12 kids (and the NYT just reported that family sizes are becoming smaller, partly it is believed, due to welfare reform under Clinton limiting lifetime benefits) this is not that hard to manage.

roadrunner

Commercialism, politics, satire, cynacism.....yeah, what is this forum coming to!

While the interest in paying off a $50K debt is not insurmountable by itself, when you add in all the other costs of living, I would submit it gets pretty tough. For a brief period during in the early 1990's I was into CC debt to the tune of about $18,000 and not making $75,000 either. It was a strain to make all the ends meet. I finally paid it all off and have sworn off CC debt ever since. Had I run that up to $50K I can only imagine the stress it would have caused. I would not expect that many forum members carry $50K in debt
today (not including home or cars). But feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

roadrunner

tradedollarnut

If the debt is spent on infrastructure, such as roads highways schools hospitals factories and the like, then it is a cheap overall investment in improving the efficiency and size of the economy - and is rewarded many times over. Much like taking on debt to buy your home vs renting.

JohnMaben

Do I detect a bit of jealousy in that tone Laurie that someone other than you has launched a hot thread?
BTW, I'm still mad you wouldn't show me those coins you bought at T&G.

John

Fountainhead

A purely commercial thread turns politcal. Now what is this board coming to?

Good things, I hope! Anybody see good campaign tokens lately? A two-faced Kerry, perhaps? A Malaprop-legended Bush?

JohnMaben

Oh pa-leeeaaase. What difference does it make if you start it or someone else does? You've probably got more hits off this board than everyone else combined. You're preaching to the wrong person here. Get real.

JohnMaben

Ok, in all sincerity, what is the BST?

BowTieCoins

Buy sell & trade forum.


Katrina

roadrunner

Personally, I'd rather see the market related stuff over here because 90% of the traffic is on the Coin Forum, not the BST. The BST is so choked up with stuff that I no longer even go over there except maybe once a week. For every person selling something within the realm of reason, there are too many others who want something closer to retail for their dupes or castoffs.

I see no problem with Market views over here. It has more to do with coins than 90% of the material posted.

roadrunner

darktone

Hi John, if one person is allowed to post ads/commercial stuff here- should not all then be allowed? If so it would look just like the BST forum and we already have one of those. mike

darktone

<< <i>The BST is so choked up with stuff that I no longer even go over there except maybe once a week. >>

Exactly my point for not allowing this stuff over here! mike

UncleWiggly

<< <i>

<< <i>How do you get to look at your inventory for what you have to sell? I didn't see any coins on your site. >>

That would be considered spamming the boards if you linked your website with stuff for sale. It's just fine this way I think? mike >>



I don't believe so. Allot of people's websites under their names have coins for sale.


Jerry

darktone

<< <i>I don't believe so. Allot of people's websites under their names have coins for sale. >>

Jerry you are referring to their signature line which is fine- I am referring to starting a thread for the purpose of providing a link to you website. mike

JohnMaben

Mike,

Point well taken. But I ask, is a legitimate market report REALLY the level of commercial stuff that needs to be filtered out???
Yes, I know I make references to my coins (without being specific) and my new offices, etc at the end, but by and large the content is always just information.
Information that most seem to enjoy reading.

John

JohnMaben

Banner? What banner? Oh, that banner! I need to get me one of those!

Stuart

John: Thanks for posting your market report link on the U.S. Coin Forum.

I personally feel that market insight is relevant info for the U.S. Coin Forum and would never see it if it were with all of the other trash in the open forum because I stay away from there...

JohnMaben

"In the past, some forum members have posted links to dealers' (Legend's, Pinnacle's, etc.) market reports and that seems to be ok here. But, if you as the dealer with the report do it, it's considered naughty/spam, etc."

My point exactly.... why is it any better to get the message out indirectly vs directly?

I was wondering how long it would take you to weigh in Mr Feld. I wish you would move to Florida.


"I personally feel that market insight is relevant info for the U.S. Coin Forum and would never see it if it were with all of the other trash in the open forum because I stay away from there... "

Stuart--- My thoughts too, you hit the nail on head, IMO.

John

Bear

John, yours is a top quality report on the Coin Market.

I am delighted to read such informed reports, no matter what

Forum they may be on. Thank you for going to the effort of

preparing such erudite and concise reviews.

JohnMaben

Why does everyone always want to seperate the two? We're all just people. Can't we just get along???

Bear

Dealers and collectors are symbiotic and we all like coins.

No problem here.

darktone

<< <i>Why does everyone always want to seperate the two? We're all just people. Can't we just get along??? >>

I agree John. mike

tradedollarnut

Can't we just get along???



Have you taken a good look around here lately?


Bottom line is that there's another forum for posting it yourself. It's a very slippery slope that doesn't take much for this to become another BST forum. Besides.... why would you want to displace another 'look what's wrong with this ebay auction' or 'AT/NT' thread? Have you no compassion?

lloydmincy

Well, politics:

My question is, WHAT are all the problems the U. S. is having? What hand outs is George Bush giving out? I got a 4% tax break last year, (2003) but still payed $190,000. Am I to be punished for a break, when I (among many others) is paying most of the tax (average per person ) anyway? What have I received in return for my success and for dishing out $190,000 in taxes? And what about the debt? Road Runner is right. NO hand outs to the lazy and the ones looking for benefits for free. SS is going up because of the baby-boomers all hitting that age (62 or higher) and living too long.

Why is the press (and Americans) so worried about terror? Out of 278,000,000 americans, how many have died from a terror attack in the U.S. since 9/11? A murder happens once a day/night in Detroit, 40 minutes from my home. At least 1000 since 9/11.

Americans will continue it's "irrational exhuberance" in spending, want cheaper products (have no problem buying "made in China" stuff), and lay around and complain. We are all very fortunate and lucky. Doubt any of these forum members are struggling for a meal or a roof over their head.

Tradedollarnut is correct. What if the $50,000 credit card debt is 3% a year, and you are using it to buy rare coins! (hahaha). Again, most have quite a bit of debt, and it is in the mortgage.

Laura: You do not have to worry about the "wannabe" dealers. Everyone in the numismatic community knows who the reputable dealers are. I've personally never met you, but I know who you are. I lost some respect for you, if you ever bet for the JETS. Go against the LIONS on a regular basis, you'll be rich.

Still think both candidates are "weak" though. Not sure what either one can truly offer to do anyway.

JohnMaben

Let's just call an armistice instead of getting bemused with stereotype images of dealers and collectors. We should all have greater cognizance of our need for each other. There is no need for a collector/dealer dichotomy of sorts. Huh? Boy, am I bored. I'm up to the letter "E" in Websters now. Seriously though, I am impressed with your vocabulary Bear.

morgannut2

John---- Let me put it this way. Next to the house, Stocks and bonds, comes my coins in net worth. There's the real estate section of the paper, the Wall Street Journel, and guess what for my coins? Zip! Thanks for a great service.

JohnMaben

Morgan-nut,

Let me plug a friend. Yes, I am going to commit another no-no. Maurice Rosen's newsletter (RNA) is a superb source of information.

John

JohnMaben

ok, I'll do it if you email me the thread...
John@JohnMaben.com

kieferscoins

Tell him what a PM is and how to reply.

Cameron Kiefer

JohnMaben

wow, there's 5 of them up there. dah........

kieferscoins

Yep, just click on the flashing # and reply to them if you want. If you want to send a PM to another member, either type in their screenname or click on the little yellow lock icon in their posts and you can send a message.

Cameron Kiefer