<< Threads like this are always interesting, and I personally enjoy reading every post, but the fact remains that the system in place is better than we had before the TPG’s.
i completely disagree. the fact is that 3pg has convinced a lot of people who are coin-ignorant to think that they CAN be collectors w/out the work & effort needed to actually LEARN SOMETHING about coins. on the contrary, i honestly believe 3pg has damaged the HOBBY I believe you've confused these 2 issues on multiple occasions in the past as well,
Karl, I am not confused, and this is strictly my personal opinion. My opinion is that the TPG’s in the majority have no vested interest in a transaction or ownership, and therefore as trained graders will give a better opinion of the grade of a coin than someone with an vested interest.
I don’t think any one here will dispute the fact that all grading is strictly in the eyes of the beholder. In fact the PCGS and NGC grading tournaments prove the very fact that not even expert dealers, or expert collectors, agree on grades when offered several coins to grade.
In order to have grades fixed in stone you must at some point have a consensus of several experts on a grade, and how often does that happen?
My main point here is that people’s opinions are Jaded by there emotions. That is not a bad thing necessarily, but the fact remains that in most cases it is an illusion.
Since I assume we are still discussing Bust Halves I truly believe that a collector can drive himself insane trying to become an expert grader when we all know there are NO expert graders. Why not spend what time a collector has studying the history of the coins, making money to buy the coins, studying different marriages, and enjoying the social part of the hobby, rather than striking out on a quest to become an EXPERT GRADER. Karl, even if you finally claim you are one, no one will agree with you.
As far as the long-term investment part of the equation, why would anyone disagree that in most cases it is more acceptable to the market place to own certified coins. If this were not the case dealers would not be sending most decent Bust Halves to the TPG’s before sale.
the system in place before tpg's was FAR FAR superior, because then, YOU bought a coin because YOU liked it, not because some anonymous, faceless, nameless consensus group liked it.
Yeah, the system in place in the 1970's up to 1985 was just great. I would say the MAJORITY of dealers sold overgraded and cleaned coins. Sorry, my opinion. For every Numismatic Professionals (Jay Miller and Chris Tracey) there were 3 other firms screwing you royally. And the biggest were often worst. Cleaned, AT, altered, fake, sliders, you name it. More people lost their shirts but according to Iwog they were "collectors". Funny that you had to lose money to earn that title. I recall sending my first few coins into PCGS in 1987 only find out a number of my early proof seated coins were AT. It cost me thousands once I sold them. But I learned. But hey, I was a "collector" so IT DIDN'T MATTER. It's just about fun, right?
It is far superior today. Back then, your downside was about 90%. Today maybe 50% if a grade off on most coins and you picked an ultra dog. And if you have any eye at all for marks, luster, and eye appeal you can use the services opinion on counterfeit, AT, AS, ENV damage, lasered, puttied, etc to your advantage. But of course Iwog is an expert in all these areas because he is a collector and has paid his dues. Frankly, I'm not an expert in those areas and make mistakes from time to time on raw coins. Thank Heavens I have the Iwog's of the world to help me out.
Interesting that I purchased an alleged lasered seated proof coin out of a B&M sale 2 years ago (ANACS slabbed PF65 DCAM) and had no problem "selling" the coin to any number of leading dealers.....until I told them NGC felt it was lasered/frosted and would not cross it. I later sold the coin to one of the very best graders in the world who either didn't care or didn't know. That was one time where you could debate who knew more, NGC or the top dealer. I took my 5% loss and felt lucky to get out of it. That's what grading services are for and imo things are 10x better than they were from 1977 to 1985. The gradeflation thing occurred from 1992 onward. Prior to that I think the TPG's were doing a good job.
roadrunner, when you write, More people lost their shirts but according to Iwog they were "collectors". , I think you mean "dorkkarl", not "Iwog"
I didn't see Iwog posting to this thread at all; it is dorkkarl who pontificates, oversimplifies, and basically sounds like a jerk, in this particular thread.
<< <i>I didn't see Iwog posting to this thread at all; it is dorkkarl who pontificates, oversimplifies, and basically sounds like a jerk, in this particular thread. >>
well, somebody has too. everyone else can only see things as they are through a plastic lens.
<< <i>Yeah, the system in place in the 1970's up to 1985 was just great. I would say the MAJORITY of dealers sold overgraded and cleaned coins >>
only to those stupid enough not to learn what overgraded/cleaned coins are. amazingly, despite how horrible the system was before 3pg, a few folks, such as eliasberg & norweb, were able to put together some pretty decent sets.
<< <i>It is far superior today. Back then, your downside was about 90%. Today maybe 50% >>
don't fool youself. have you noticed the insane escalation of coin prices since the advent of 3pg??? i assure you, the average budget today can afford FAR fewer coins than it could in those horrible dark ages before plastic. 90% downside??? i would love to see where you come up w/ such a statistic.
but if you mean "it is far superior today" for the BUSINESS, i'll totally agree.
<< <i>My opinion is that the TPG’s in the majority have no vested interest in a transaction or ownership, and therefore as trained graders will give a better opinion of the grade of a coin than someone with an vested interest. >>
a better opinion ... or a DIFFERENT 1? that's where you & i totally disagree. a 3pg's opinion is no "better" then yours, in fact, it is worse becuase after all, IT'S YOUR COIN.
again, this is from a COLLECTOR'S perspective. i've said it before, i'll say it again, IF YOU CAN'T TRUST YOUR OWN OPINION ON COINS, DON'T COLLECT THEM.
<< <i>I truly believe that a collector can drive himself insane trying to become an expert grader >>
this is what i mean by, you are COMPLETELY missing the point.
a true COLLECTOR just doesn't really fret all that much about the "GRADE". why? because the reality is , "GRADING" IS AN ILLUSION.
what matters to a COLLECTOR is very simply: "do i like the coin".
it is INVESTORS who delude themselves into THINKING they are collectors, THOSE are the folks who drive themselves insane over grades. those are the people who think we need more grades, more adjectives like "FSB, FH, FT, CAM, DCAM, RB" & on & on ad nauseum.
a collector just does not get all hung up on wacky, silly little numbers that no matter how you look at it, NO MATTER how you look at it, are not inherent to the coin. the numbers are pure imagination.
<< <i>EXPERT GRADER. Karl, even if you finally claim you are one, no one will agree with you. >>
i have never claimed that. in fact i've said on numerous occasions that i am NO EXPERT at grading.
dear Karl, I have no doubt that you are a passionate collector.
However, and with all due respect, you only have the exclusive right for defining a collector for you, not anyone else.
Everyone makes their own decisions as to what they will collect (and what they are comfortable with) whether that be by type, slab, raw, price or hold on now, by GRADE. There is nothing wrong with collecting by grade if that is what pleases you. So please don't say that if you collect by grade that you cannot have the title "collector".
Case in point. I don't do MS because first I really do like circulated coins but also because I don't have the "eye" or at least my "eye" is not the same as the market "eye". If I started collecting MS coins I would need help and not the kind of help that was rampant in the 70's and 80's where sliders and problem coins were routinely passed as MS. Regardless of whether or not the "collector" liked his purchase he was at the very least wronged.
I agree that the TPG's have created some ills but they have also provided a needed service for those "collectors" (and others) that choose to use them or purchase their "product". There is nothing wrong with that.
A search for "gradeflation" in the title reveals only one of thread from Kranky in 2/02. In this thread, TDN gave examples of at least 10 of 15 coins submitted as upgrading, including AU58's that came back as MS63 and MS64. TDN stated, "Wildly lucky - I don't think so, the standards have changed from 10 years ago." TDN also commented "Georgous AU58's with full luster and a bit of cabinet friction are a thing of the past."
Filtering through Dorkkarl's ranting, he says that coin prices have increased insanely since the advent of TGG. Most of this is from increased demand, but how much more will TDN's MS64 cost, compared to when it was a AU58? How much more are the thousands of upgrades from gradeflation costing collectors? As Dorkkarl has stated in the past, the TPG's guarantee only half of the risk, which accomodates gradeflation. An undergraded coin is simply upgraded to new looser standards. Sharp collectors and dealers will get windfall profits from upgrades, but the average collector will unknowingly sell a coin for less than its value based on "new" grading standards, the dealer will get the windfall profit (they don't seem to talk about this much) and the new collector will pay for an overgraded coin. This is not much different than a 70's dealer who would pay AU to a seller (you see those scratches there?), and turn around and sell the coin as an MS.
I started this post to try and clarify the definition of mint state bust halves, but what we have found is two definitions - the experts, and TPG's, along with dealers. I can guarantee you that Downey's and Souder's opinions of mint state has not waivered, but it obvious that TPG's and dealers opinions have changed.
As Tom pointed out, TPG's exist to make money, the industry supports dealers, and collectors are not the prime beneficiary. I am not completely against TPG's, as Roadrunner said they offer more downside protection, and protect novice collectors from buying counterfeits and abrasively cleaned coins (but not lightly cleaned, dipped, or AT). But it is wrong for a new collector to think that a TPG has accurately graded a coin, or the TPG exists soley for the collectors benefit. And for the collectors who are paying $3000 for MS64's that were previously in $500 very choice AU58 holders, they are unknowingly wasting a small fortune on coins.
Take Roadrunners advice - if you want a true MS65 bust half, look over many, many examples before you make your decision.
Bill
Robert Scot: Engraving Liberty - biography of US Mint's first chief engraver
<< <i>you only have the exclusive right for defining a collector for you, not anyone else. >>
... & i do respect that. however, you'll note that i specifically said "coin collector", not "collector".
i recognize that there are also "slab collectors", but i decry where a "slab collector" deludes himself into think he's a "coin collector". THAT is where he pays the penalty for ignorance.
accumulating slabs does NOT by itself make you a coin collector.
<< <i>As Dorkkarl has stated in the past, the TPG's guarantee only half of the risk, which accomodates gradeflation >>
ding ding ding !!! & the sad fact is, i'm sorry to say that MOST of you who buy plastic & wonder why coins are escalating in price are oblivious of this.
your coins haven't gone up in value nearly as much as you think. what has happened is that grading has become poorer & poorer over time. but where you ARE spending more $$$ is to subsidize the overhead of plastic.
Bill, Who is to say that any company, grader, or collector’s opinion about anything in the hobby must remain consistent and unchanging over long periods of time? Why must we assume that TPG’s and their staff cannot learn, or be swayed by the arguments of others through time? Is it not possible that what TPG’s graded as AU 58’s in the past have now become MS 62 coins simple because they now feel that cabinet wear, soft strikes, etc. is no longer to classified by them as circulation. As far as prices being pushed buy the TPG’s I am not sure one might not make a different argument. Lets say that in the case of Bust half dollars that the TPG’s were so tough they wanted them all to look like new ASE coins straight out of the mint before they were graded MS anything. Where do you think the prices would be for those very high-end Au coins? If the highest-grade coin you could buy in a Bust Half was AU 58 my belief is that Dale’s set would be all AU 58’s and he might have paid the same high prices. Does the fact that most of the Washington Half Disme’s can only be found in grades below AU make them cheap? Regardless of where one tries to place blame for market increase in coins the ball will always stop in our court. It is we who except, bid, and buy the coins, and it is we that move the market up or down. If there comes a point in time that we feel the coins are over graded, and the prices are to high, and therefore refuse to buy, the market will come down.
“i recognize that there are also "slab collectors", but i decry where a "slab collector" deludes himself into think he's a "coin collector". THAT is where he pays the penalty for ignorance.”
O.K. Karl, Perhaps you can help me solve the dilemma I seem to find myself in. From the age of 8 until the age of 56 I collected lots of various coins, built various sets, studied my coins, read numerous books on grading, buy, selling, cleaning, toning, etc. etc. etc. I kept all my coins in Whitman and Dansco books and had many hundreds of hours of enjoyment examining them, and discussing them with other collectors. I was pretty good at all this, and opened a coin shop in Austin Texas for a couple of years from 1978 to 1980. I bought, sold, and collected thousands of coins from across the U.S. and World spectrum. As my family grew and my responsibilities increased I had no money to collect, but still loved the hobby and just stop acquiring new coins until last year. After getting back in the hobby and starting to build on to what I had, I noticed that many changes had taken place since I had stopped acquiring, and after much flip-flopping on the issues, and the changes that had occurred, I made a personal decision to join the modern world of coin collecting. I had my collection looked at by expert third party graders. I won’t bore you with all those details most of which you have heard since I have been a member here.
So Karl here is my dilemma, was I a REAL coin collector for those 48 years but now in the last 9 months have degenerated into a “slab collector/ investor”? Exactly what would you say has changed as far as all my experience and knowledge goes, is it now gone because my collection is now slabbed?
I'm in a hurry, but a basic answer your questions is: I included experts opinions on MS grades because I know they are constant and will not change over time, regardless of industry gradeflation. As I mentioned previously, AU58's can sell in Downey sales for MS62 prices if they are choice, but not MS64 prices. I am not saying every MS64 should be AU58, but a certain percentage WERE AU58's, we don't know how many.
Bill
Robert Scot: Engraving Liberty - biography of US Mint's first chief engraver
One thing that was not touched on with regard to price increases is consumer confidence. Regardless of anyone's view on the legitimacy of a given grade on a slab, the presence of TPGs (Reputable ones) gives consumers more confidence in what they are buying. And more confidence usually leads to increased competition and prices.
I still find this overall argument both interesting and amusing. Interesting because it stimulates passionate arguments and ideas. Amusing because sometimes it is tilting the windmills and exposes the fact that the hobby is large enough to accomodate many collectors with many different motivations. And that sometimes people just need to chill out.
Terry: I don't think that Karl is saying that everyone who owns slabbed coins is necessarily a “slab collector/ investor”...
I think he's saying that people who don't know about the coins themselves, and who solely rely on the printed grade on the certified slab are not true numismatists, and are totally dependant on the TPGS's when they purchase coins.
And that this segment of collectors (not true numistmatists) are very susceptible to grade inflation and may place themselves in a perilous position if they are making sizable monetary investments in coins solely on the basis os printed grade on the certified slab.
(Karl I hope that this is a reasoably accurate paraphrase of your position -- with which I concur...)
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
<< <i>Is it not possible that what TPG’s graded as AU 58’s in the past have now become MS 62 coins simple because they now feel that cabinet wear, soft strikes, etc. is no longer to classified by them as circulation. >>
if that is the case, & i have no question that it is true, then you can imagine how many folks who've invested in slabs because they are a "safer" investmen then raw coins have gotten badly screwed.
<< <i>Regardless of where one tries to place blame for market increase in coins the ball will always stop in our court. It is we who except, bid, and buy the coins, and it is we that move the market up or down. If there comes a point in time that we feel the coins are over graded, and the prices are to high, and therefore refuse to buy, the market will come down. >>
the problem is though, that there are too many sheep-like collectors who truly, honestly believe then can always believe the number on the pcgs or ngc slab.
<< <i>“i recognize that there are also "slab collectors", but i decry where a "slab collector" deludes himself into think he's a "coin collector". THAT is where he pays the penalty for ignorance.”
O.K. Karl, Perhaps you can help me solve the dilemma I seem to find myself in. From the age of 8 until the age of 56 I collected lots of various coins, built various sets, studied my coins, read numerous books on grading, buy, selling, cleaning, toning, etc. etc. etc. I kept all my coins in Whitman and Dansco books and had many hundreds of hours of enjoyment examining them, and discussing them with other collectors. I was pretty good at all this, and opened a coin shop in Austin Texas for a couple of years from 1978 to 1980. I bought, sold, and collected thousands of coins from across the U.S. and World spectrum. As my family grew and my responsibilities increased I had no money to collect, but still loved the hobby and just stop acquiring new coins until last year. After getting back in the hobby and starting to build on to what I had, I noticed that many changes had taken place since I had stopped acquiring, and after much flip-flopping on the issues, and the changes that had occurred, I made a personal decision to join the modern world of coin collecting. I had my collection looked at by expert third party graders. I won’t bore you with all those details most of which you have heard since I have been a member here.
So Karl here is my dilemma, was I a REAL coin collector for those 48 years but now in the last 9 months have degenerated into a “slab collector/ investor”? Exactly what would you say has changed as far as all my experience and knowledge goes, is it now gone because my collection is now slabbed? >>
you were already a coin collector before, now you are also a slab collector (i assume). i have no problem w/ that.
the the problem is "virgin collectors" who come into the market truly, honestly believing the number on the pcgs or ngc slab is always right. they have never actually colleted coins, & actually believe that "buying slabs" equates to "collects coins"
lemme answer your question w/ another question: when was the last time you saw a plastic co. publicly state that their grades CHANGE over time? when was the last time you saw them publicly state that they only offer 1/2 a grading guarantee, because the know darned well they cannot truly GUARANTEE a grade?
<< <i>One thing that was not touched on with regard to price increases is consumer confidence. Regardless of anyone's view on the legitimacy of a given grade on a slab, the presence of TPGs (Reputable ones) gives consumers more confidence in what they are buying. And more confidence usually leads to increased competition and prices. >>
Comments
i completely disagree. the fact is that 3pg has convinced a lot of people who are coin-ignorant to think that they CAN be collectors w/out the work & effort needed to actually LEARN SOMETHING about coins. on the contrary, i honestly believe 3pg has damaged the HOBBY
I believe you've confused these 2 issues on multiple occasions in the past as well,
Karl,
I am not confused, and this is strictly my personal opinion. My opinion is that the TPG’s in the majority have no vested interest in a transaction or ownership, and therefore as trained graders will give a better opinion of the grade of a coin than someone with an vested interest.
I don’t think any one here will dispute the fact that all grading is strictly in the eyes of the beholder. In fact the PCGS and NGC grading tournaments prove the very fact that not even expert dealers, or expert collectors, agree on grades when offered several coins to grade.
In order to have grades fixed in stone you must at some point have a consensus of several experts on a grade, and how often does that happen?
My main point here is that people’s opinions are Jaded by there emotions. That is not a bad thing necessarily, but the fact remains that in most cases it is an illusion.
Since I assume we are still discussing Bust Halves I truly believe that a collector can drive himself insane trying to become an expert grader when we all know there are NO expert graders. Why not spend what time a collector has studying the history of the coins, making money to buy the coins, studying different marriages, and enjoying the social part of the hobby, rather than striking out on a quest to become an EXPERT GRADER. Karl, even if you finally claim you are one, no one will agree with you.
As far as the long-term investment part of the equation, why would anyone disagree that in most cases it is more acceptable to the market place to own certified coins. If this were not the case dealers would not be sending most decent Bust Halves to the TPG’s before sale.
Yeah, the system in place in the 1970's up to 1985 was just great.
I would say the MAJORITY of dealers sold overgraded and cleaned coins. Sorry, my opinion. For every Numismatic Professionals (Jay Miller and Chris Tracey) there were 3 other firms screwing you royally. And the biggest were often worst. Cleaned, AT, altered, fake, sliders, you name it. More people lost their shirts but according to Iwog they were "collectors". Funny that you had to lose money to earn that title. I recall sending my first few coins into PCGS in 1987 only find out a number of my early proof seated coins were AT. It cost me thousands once I sold them. But I learned. But hey, I was a "collector" so IT DIDN'T MATTER. It's just about fun, right?
It is far superior today. Back then, your downside was about 90%.
Today maybe 50% if a grade off on most coins and you picked an ultra dog. And if you have any eye at all for marks, luster, and eye appeal you can use the services opinion on counterfeit, AT, AS, ENV damage, lasered, puttied, etc to your advantage. But of course Iwog is an expert in all these areas because he is a collector and has paid his dues. Frankly, I'm not an expert in those areas and make mistakes from time to time on raw coins. Thank Heavens I have the Iwog's of the world to help me out.
Interesting that I purchased an alleged lasered seated proof coin out of a B&M sale 2 years ago (ANACS slabbed PF65 DCAM)
and had no problem "selling" the coin to any number of leading dealers.....until I told them NGC felt it was lasered/frosted and would not cross it. I later sold the coin to one of the very best graders in the world who either didn't care or didn't know. That was one time where you could debate who knew more, NGC or the top dealer. I took my 5% loss and felt lucky to get out of it. That's what grading services are for and imo things are 10x better than they were from 1977 to 1985. The gradeflation thing occurred from 1992 onward. Prior to that I think the TPG's were doing a good job.
roadrunner
I didn't see Iwog posting to this thread at all; it is dorkkarl who pontificates, oversimplifies,
and basically sounds like a jerk, in this particular thread.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>I didn't see Iwog posting to this thread at all; it is dorkkarl who pontificates, oversimplifies, and basically sounds like a jerk, in this particular thread. >>
well, somebody has too. everyone else can only see things as they are through a plastic lens.
<< <i>Yeah, the system in place in the 1970's up to 1985 was just great.
I would say the MAJORITY of dealers sold overgraded and cleaned coins >>
only to those stupid enough not to learn what overgraded/cleaned coins are. amazingly, despite how horrible the system was before 3pg, a few folks, such as eliasberg & norweb, were able to put together some pretty decent sets.
<< <i>It is far superior today. Back then, your downside was about 90%. Today maybe 50% >>
don't fool youself. have you noticed the insane escalation of coin prices since the advent of 3pg??? i assure you, the average budget today can afford FAR fewer coins than it could in those horrible dark ages before plastic. 90% downside??? i would love to see where you come up w/ such a statistic.
but if you mean "it is far superior today" for the BUSINESS, i'll totally agree.
<< <i>My opinion is that the TPG’s in the majority have no vested interest in a transaction or ownership, and therefore as trained graders will give a better opinion of the grade of a coin than someone with an vested interest. >>
a better opinion ... or a DIFFERENT 1? that's where you & i totally disagree. a 3pg's opinion is no "better" then yours, in fact, it is worse becuase after all, IT'S YOUR COIN.
again, this is from a COLLECTOR'S perspective. i've said it before, i'll say it again, IF YOU CAN'T TRUST YOUR OWN OPINION ON COINS, DON'T COLLECT THEM.
<< <i>I truly believe that a collector can drive himself insane trying to become an expert grader >>
this is what i mean by, you are COMPLETELY missing the point.
a true COLLECTOR just doesn't really fret all that much about the "GRADE". why? because the reality is , "GRADING" IS AN ILLUSION.
what matters to a COLLECTOR is very simply: "do i like the coin".
it is INVESTORS who delude themselves into THINKING they are collectors, THOSE are the folks who drive themselves insane over grades. those are the people who think we need more grades, more adjectives like "FSB, FH, FT, CAM, DCAM, RB" & on & on ad nauseum.
a collector just does not get all hung up on wacky, silly little numbers that no matter how you look at it, NO MATTER how you look at it, are not inherent to the coin. the numbers are pure imagination.
<< <i>EXPERT GRADER. Karl, even if you finally claim you are one, no one will agree with you. >>
i have never claimed that. in fact i've said on numerous occasions that i am NO EXPERT at grading.
but i sure as he11 know what I LIKE.
K S
However, and with all due respect, you only have the exclusive right for defining a collector for you, not anyone else.
Everyone makes their own decisions as to what they will collect (and what they are comfortable with) whether that be by type, slab, raw, price or hold on now, by GRADE. There is nothing wrong with collecting by grade if that is what pleases you. So please don't say that if you collect by grade that you cannot have the title "collector".
Case in point. I don't do MS because first I really do like circulated coins but also because I don't have the "eye" or at least my "eye" is not the same as the market "eye". If I started collecting MS coins I would need help and not the kind of help that was rampant in the 70's and 80's where sliders and problem coins were routinely passed as MS. Regardless of whether or not the "collector" liked his purchase he was at the very least wronged.
I agree that the TPG's have created some ills but they have also provided a needed service for those "collectors" (and others) that choose to use them or purchase their "product". There is nothing wrong with that.
Joe.
Filtering through Dorkkarl's ranting, he says that coin prices have increased insanely since the advent of TGG. Most of this is from increased demand, but how much more will TDN's MS64 cost, compared to when it was a AU58? How much more are the thousands of upgrades from gradeflation costing collectors? As Dorkkarl has stated in the past, the TPG's guarantee only half of the risk, which accomodates gradeflation. An undergraded coin is simply upgraded to new looser standards. Sharp collectors and dealers will get windfall profits from upgrades, but the average collector will unknowingly sell a coin for less than its value based on "new" grading standards, the dealer will get the windfall profit (they don't seem to talk about this much) and the new collector will pay for an overgraded coin. This is not much different than a 70's dealer who would pay AU to a seller (you see those scratches there?), and turn around and sell the coin as an MS.
I started this post to try and clarify the definition of mint state bust halves, but what we have found is two definitions - the experts, and TPG's, along with dealers. I can guarantee you that Downey's and Souder's opinions of mint state has not waivered, but it obvious that TPG's and dealers opinions have changed.
As Tom pointed out, TPG's exist to make money, the industry supports dealers, and collectors are not the prime beneficiary. I am not completely against TPG's, as Roadrunner said they offer more downside protection, and protect novice collectors from buying counterfeits and abrasively cleaned coins (but not lightly cleaned, dipped, or AT). But it is wrong for a new collector to think that a TPG has accurately graded a coin, or the TPG exists soley for the collectors benefit. And for the collectors who are paying $3000 for MS64's that were previously in $500 very choice AU58 holders, they are unknowingly wasting a small fortune on coins.
Take Roadrunners advice - if you want a true MS65 bust half, look over many, many examples before you make your decision.
Bill
<< <i>you only have the exclusive right for defining a collector for you, not anyone else. >>
... & i do respect that. however, you'll note that i specifically said "coin collector", not "collector".
i recognize that there are also "slab collectors", but i decry where a "slab collector" deludes himself into think he's a "coin collector". THAT is where he pays the penalty for ignorance.
accumulating slabs does NOT by itself make you a coin collector.
<< <i>As Dorkkarl has stated in the past, the TPG's guarantee only half of the risk, which accomodates gradeflation >>
ding ding ding !!! & the sad fact is, i'm sorry to say that MOST of you who buy plastic & wonder why coins are escalating in price are oblivious of this.
your coins haven't gone up in value nearly as much as you think. what has happened is that grading has become poorer & poorer over time. but where you ARE spending more $$$ is to subsidize the overhead of plastic.
K S
Who is to say that any company, grader, or collector’s opinion about anything in the hobby must remain consistent and unchanging over long periods of time?
Why must we assume that TPG’s and their staff cannot learn, or be swayed by the arguments of others through time?
Is it not possible that what TPG’s graded as AU 58’s in the past have now become MS 62 coins simple because they now feel that cabinet wear, soft strikes, etc. is no longer to classified by them as circulation.
As far as prices being pushed buy the TPG’s I am not sure one might not make a different argument. Lets say that in the case of Bust half dollars that the TPG’s were so tough they wanted them all to look like new ASE coins straight out of the mint before they were graded MS anything. Where do you think the prices would be for those very high-end Au coins?
If the highest-grade coin you could buy in a Bust Half was AU 58 my belief is that Dale’s set would be all AU 58’s and he might have paid the same high prices.
Does the fact that most of the Washington Half Disme’s can only be found in grades below AU make them cheap?
Regardless of where one tries to place blame for market increase in coins the ball will always stop in our court. It is we who except, bid, and buy the coins, and it is we that move the market up or down. If there comes a point in time that we feel the coins are over graded, and the prices are to high, and therefore refuse to buy, the market will come down.
“i recognize that there are also "slab collectors", but i decry where a "slab collector" deludes himself into think he's a "coin collector". THAT is where he pays the penalty for ignorance.”
O.K. Karl,
Perhaps you can help me solve the dilemma I seem to find myself in.
From the age of 8 until the age of 56 I collected lots of various coins, built various sets, studied my coins, read numerous books on grading, buy, selling, cleaning, toning, etc. etc. etc. I kept all my coins in Whitman and Dansco books and had many hundreds of hours of enjoyment examining them, and discussing them with other collectors. I was pretty good at all this, and opened a coin shop in Austin Texas for a couple of years from 1978 to 1980. I bought, sold, and collected thousands of coins from across the U.S. and World spectrum.
As my family grew and my responsibilities increased I had no money to collect, but still loved the hobby and just stop acquiring new coins until last year. After getting back in the hobby and starting to build on to what I had, I noticed that many changes had taken place since I had stopped acquiring, and after much flip-flopping on the issues, and the changes that had occurred, I made a personal decision to join the modern world of coin collecting. I had my collection looked at by expert third party graders. I won’t bore you with all those details most of which you have heard since I have been a member here.
So Karl here is my dilemma, was I a REAL coin collector for those 48 years but now in the last 9 months have degenerated into a “slab collector/ investor”?
Exactly what would you say has changed as far as all my experience and knowledge goes, is it now gone because my collection is now slabbed?
I'm in a hurry, but a basic answer your questions is: I included experts opinions on MS grades because I know they are constant and will not change over time, regardless of industry gradeflation. As I mentioned previously, AU58's can sell in Downey sales for MS62 prices if they are choice, but not MS64 prices. I am not saying every MS64 should be AU58, but a certain percentage WERE AU58's, we don't know how many.
Bill
I still find this overall argument both interesting and amusing. Interesting because it stimulates passionate arguments and ideas. Amusing because sometimes it is tilting the windmills and exposes the fact that the hobby is large enough to accomodate many collectors with many different motivations. And that sometimes people just need to chill out.
I think he's saying that people who don't know about the coins themselves, and who solely rely on the printed grade on the certified slab are not true numismatists, and are totally dependant on the TPGS's when they purchase coins.
And that this segment of collectors (not true numistmatists) are very susceptible to grade inflation and may place themselves in a perilous position if they are making sizable monetary investments in coins solely on the basis os printed grade on the certified slab.
(Karl I hope that this is a reasoably accurate paraphrase of your position -- with which I concur...)
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
<< <i>Is it not possible that what TPG’s graded as AU 58’s in the past have now become MS 62 coins simple because they now feel that cabinet wear, soft strikes, etc. is no longer to classified by them as circulation. >>
if that is the case, & i have no question that it is true, then you can imagine how many folks who've invested in slabs because they are a "safer" investmen then raw coins have gotten badly screwed.
<< <i>Regardless of where one tries to place blame for market increase in coins the ball will always stop in our court. It is we who except, bid, and buy the coins, and it is we that move the market up or down. If there comes a point in time that we feel the coins are over graded, and the prices are to high, and therefore refuse to buy, the market will come down. >>
the problem is though, that there are too many sheep-like collectors who truly, honestly believe then can always believe the number on the pcgs or ngc slab.
<< <i>“i recognize that there are also "slab collectors", but i decry where a "slab collector" deludes himself into think he's a "coin collector". THAT is where he pays the penalty for ignorance.”
O.K. Karl,
Perhaps you can help me solve the dilemma I seem to find myself in.
From the age of 8 until the age of 56 I collected lots of various coins, built various sets, studied my coins, read numerous books on grading, buy, selling, cleaning, toning, etc. etc. etc. I kept all my coins in Whitman and Dansco books and had many hundreds of hours of enjoyment examining them, and discussing them with other collectors. I was pretty good at all this, and opened a coin shop in Austin Texas for a couple of years from 1978 to 1980. I bought, sold, and collected thousands of coins from across the U.S. and World spectrum.
As my family grew and my responsibilities increased I had no money to collect, but still loved the hobby and just stop acquiring new coins until last year. After getting back in the hobby and starting to build on to what I had, I noticed that many changes had taken place since I had stopped acquiring, and after much flip-flopping on the issues, and the changes that had occurred, I made a personal decision to join the modern world of coin collecting. I had my collection looked at by expert third party graders. I won’t bore you with all those details most of which you have heard since I have been a member here.
So Karl here is my dilemma, was I a REAL coin collector for those 48 years but now in the last 9 months have degenerated into a “slab collector/ investor”?
Exactly what would you say has changed as far as all my experience and knowledge goes, is it now gone because my collection is now slabbed? >>
you were already a coin collector before, now you are also a slab collector (i assume). i have no problem w/ that.
the the problem is "virgin collectors" who come into the market truly, honestly believing the number on the pcgs or ngc slab is always right. they have never actually colleted coins, & actually believe that "buying slabs" equates to "collects coins"
lemme answer your question w/ another question: when was the last time you saw a plastic co. publicly state that their grades CHANGE over time? when was the last time you saw them publicly state that they only offer 1/2 a grading guarantee, because the know darned well they cannot truly GUARANTEE a grade?
<< <i>One thing that was not touched on with regard to price increases is consumer confidence. Regardless of anyone's view on the legitimacy of a given grade on a slab, the presence of TPGs (Reputable ones) gives consumers more confidence in what they are buying. And more confidence usually leads to increased competition and prices. >>
confidence is good, very good.
but where does OVER-confidence lead you?
K S