Call it what you want to, but I see a trend developing fast!

jdimmick

This thread is not to comment on the market goods or bads, but I see a trend developing and developing fast. More and more people are starting to sell of parts of thier collections? Is this a sign?

Several memebers of this board have started and several that I know from the industry?

Russ

I think the trend actually started in the spring of this year. So far, the market has appeared to be capable of absorbing the material and keep on trucking. But, when you consider the number of high end collections from savvy collectors that have been offered, and are continuing to be offered, it does cause one to ponder.

Russ, NCNE

magikbilly

Hi,
I have seen it all over the place - besides coins - ocean liner and transportation memorablia, World's Fair Memorabilia, vintage photography/Kodachrome, vintage Hollywood and entertainment autographs...almost every area I collect in has seen large amounts of material on offer lately. And several friends have been selling stuff I thought I would never see them part with. I have no idea what it means, but I am buying as fast as I can! (No, I am not speaking of buying coins - I am buying other things these days)

Best,
Billy

sliderider

It's like I've been saying, there's a credit crunch coming and those who are smart enough to recognize it are liquidating and paying down their debts so they won't be so badly off when it comes. If you can afford to buy from cash reserves then go ahead, but I don't think now is a good time to use leverage to buy some of the coins that are now coming to market.

ksteelheader

I agree with all four previous posters! There is going to be a substancial correction! And, I'll be buying!!!

nwcs

Actually, I saw that trend start late last fall when metals prices rose. It was easier for people to offload common stuff. Now people are selling other things. I'm buying now, though. But everything I'm buying is for my permanent collection. Although I'm still selling my mistakes and the coins I don't want to keep.

BAJJERFAN

What would a credit crunch have to do with it? Either you have credit or you don't. If you are buying on credit then you shouldn't be spending what can't be paid off in the short term.

Maybe the selling means that more coin collectors are more investor than collector; apparently more investor/speculator than they are willing to admit.

K6AZ

All you have to do is look at the Morgan registry sets that have been sold lately. Of course the given reason is always something like I'm moving on to other things, I want to pursue a business opportunity, etc., but the bottom line is the profit taking has begun. I'm not too up on some other series, but I expect to see a major downturn in Morgan prices in the coming months.

UncleWiggly

I think eveybody has been noticing a back step in as Laura said "stuff" There's been allot more "stuff" not being sold in the Heritage and Teletrade auctions than back in the Spring.


Jerry

BAJJERFAN

Well the auction offerings and dealer inventory for Morgans seems to be increasing too!!

dizzlecc

I think the key dates and dmpls will stay strong and in demand. The common date and low grade stuff will suffer.

It is good that people are opening up thier collection and circulating them its good commerce.

Stuart

Some segments of the coin market have appeciated very quickly such as DMPL and CC Morgans; and especially DMPL CC Morgans. Typically when things appreciate rapidly in price, they tend to correct significantly sooner rather than later.

Now seems to be the right time to sell coins that you are willing to part with, due them being made redundant either due to upgrades or changing collecting directions & interests.

Many are selling into this strong market to monetize those previous investments, and put the money away for other things, or to purchase other coins if/when the market corrects.

sliderider

A credit crunch does affect numismatic holdings because people who buy on credit end up paying higher interest rates on those loans which can put a real strain on incomes. Selling now while prices are high and paying down those debts incurred when you bought prevents you from having to have a fire sale after prices fall and you may not be able to pay off those debts. It's like buying stocks on margin. If you do it and prices go up, goody for you, if they fall, and you have a margin call and the stocks aren't worth enough to cover it, you're screwed. I know a lot of people carrying credit card debts or bank loans or are on payment plans at coin galleries who wouldn't know what to do if the value of their coins dropped by a large margin overnight. I just want people to use a little discretion when using credit to buy coins because it can eat you alive if you aren't careful.

magikbilly

Hi,
I don't buy things I can't either pay for upfront, or cover in less than a month.

Best,
Billy

DHeath

I think the key dates and dmpls will stay strong and in demand.

I would finish that thought with "at some price."

Boom

What is this, deja' vu? I started a similar thread earlier today. I suppose the people that borrowed or used credit to obtain their collectables and still carry balances AND / OR collectors looking to make their big hit are the ones selling out right now. I'll use the same philosophy as investing in anything else such as stock...."Buy low/ sell high". If they want to sell, (actually at a loss), I'll be buying!

jdimmick

My collection has already been purged down to the keepers, although I have a few left over that I have thought seriously about profit taking on. Most of the coins I still have, I am into very good as they were bought pre or in the infant stages of the market run-up. So even a significant market correction, I would come out well ahead. I have been doing some hard thinking about should I join in and sell the good stuff and take significant profits while the market is still at this level (The investment side of me) or keep them because I truly like the coins I own regardless of what happens value wise (The collector side of me). Also, several of them could be purchased at a later time possibly cheaper if it were t happen, but others would not be so easy to find as all my good stuff left are tougher key date coins, some of which rarely come around nice.

I have had the opportunity to do some buying and selling as of late on a smaller level and have really enjoyed it so much that I have considered seriously doing it even more at a larger level. I was going to part with some of my collection to get a decent financial base to be able to handle some larger value coins if the opportunity presented itself. However, if the market conditions were to drastically change, then this would be tough road as well.

jim