Why I don't think the coin market is bearish

lava

I have heard the complaints about a poor Long Beach show, but I'm not buying the idea that that is indicative of the market. The market for Morgans is very strong. Other segments of the coin hobby, I wouldn't know. But I know Morgans, and the market is strong. Here are a few reasons for my opinions.

1. I have had strong bids repeatedly come up short.

2. My friends have had strong bids repeatedly come up short.

3. My winning bids have been strong.

4. Weaker winning bids say more about the coin than the market. Why? Because we have seen a bunch of similar coins sold (same date, mint), and there are always strong bids in the bunch.

5. Coins that are not sold are not sold for a reason -- unrealistic reserve prices. Don't believe me? Take a look at the Morgan leftovers from the Heritage sale today. Not a bargain in the bunch.

6. I still can't find the coins I need; my friends still can't find the coins they need. This combination of factors suggests demand is stronger than supply, which will sustain bullish prices. I wouldn't mind a pull back, so I could buy at cheaper prices, but based on my bids, I simply do not see the market pulling back.

Again, my thoughts are for Morgans. Morgans will be the last to pull back, if there is a pull back, but I have not seen any indication yet of a pull back in Morgans.

tradedollarnut

I spent significant money buying two coins for my collection at LB. If anything else came available, I wouldn't hesitate if the quality was commensurate to the price. I also happen to know another collector who was offered a coin of her dreams at [what I consider to be] all the money - she didn't hesitate either.

I would say that the market is selective, not weak.

ziggy29

Simply put, I don't think it's bearish based on what I've had to pay for my stuff recently.

earlwbollinger

Well, considering there is a large number of rare coins coming up on the market, it makes me wonder if
the "insiders" are getting their money while they can.
Sorta makes you wonder if something is afoot or not.

badger

For high grade cameo proofs, I have not seen a fall off. For example:
1956 Pr68Dcam Jeff $6k
1942 Pr66Cam Jeff $6k+
1950 Pr67Cam Franklin $19k+

I was outbid on all of these.
Dave