1957 Topps BB Grading Analysis

Mantlefan

I have analyzed the 1957 Topps Baseball PSA grading numbers over the past 21 months. This is a very popular set with several 100% high grade completed registry sets.

In Jan of 2003, the pop report indicated the following:

total cards graded 52,617

PSA 10: 73....0.14%
PSA 9: 1,399....2.6%
PSA 8: 17,822 ....33.9%
PSA 7: 16,883 ...32.1%
PSA 6: 7,554....14.4%

Since then, 23,796 additional cards have been graded:

PSA 10: 10....0.04%
PSA 9: 407....1.7%
PSA 8: 6,174 ....25.8%
PSA 7: 7,993 ...33.6%
PSA 6: 4,789....20.1%

These numbers clearly indicate that getting higher grades [PSA 10,9,8] has become much tougher for this set.

Looking at an individual card or two:

There have been no PSA 9 or 10 #1 Ted Williams cards graded in the past 21 months! There have been only 7 new PSA 8 Williams cards graded in that same time period.

There have been only 2 new PSA 9 #95 Mickey Mantles and 8 new PSA 8 Mantles graded in the past 20 months.

Thus it seems that for this set, PSA has toughened its grading standards. One can also surmise that most of the hi grade 1957's had already been slabbed by 2003. As mentioned already, this is a very popular set and the high prices seen for PSA 9's and certain PSA 8's are validated by these numbers. One would think that with all the EBAY action on this set, the people "hoarding" the 57's would start submitting to cash in. This does not appear to be happening.

So the next time you see a PSA 9 #1 Ted Williams up for auction...go for it. Actually, don't since I need it for my set and I don't feel like spending 5 figures.

Buccaneer

Thanks, Frank, what was very informative.

It's funny, but just today I have been thinking about my approach to the 1957 set, esp. since Mickey's has some new ones up. In analyzing what it would take build the set in NM/PSA7, esp. with the high number of "expensive" stars, I'm thinking I may have to bump that set down to minimum ExMt/PSA6 for the stars. From what I have seen around here, it seems that building ExMt or better 1950s sets is pretty common. But then again, you are talking about PSA 9 and stuff....so, nevermind.

JusttheFacts

<< <i>These numbers clearly indicate that getting higher grades [PSA 10,9,8] has become much tougher for this set. >>






<< <i>Thus it seems that for this set, PSA has toughened its grading standards. >>



I'm not sure that the fact that fewer 8s, 9s, and 10s have been awarded recently inevitably leads to the conclusion that PSA has toughened its grading standards. It stands to reason that people will initially submit the best cards they have for grading and that, over time, there are fewer and fewer raw cards out there that are 8, 9, and 10 worthy. Therefore, the quality of raw cards that are submitted would likely decrease over time meaning that the average grade received would decline. I'm not saying that this is what has happened here, but it is another possibility.

John

Mantlefan

Steve, with some many more PSA 7's becoming available, I believe that doing the set in 7 is achievable at a reasonable cost.

Vargha

As Mark Twain once said, "There are thre kinds of lies -- lies, damned lies and statistics."

Fuzz

Vargha,
My wife the statistics instructor does not allow us to use that statement at our house, but I have always enjoyed it and believe it whole heartedly.
On to the lying:
Mantlefan,
I will assume that they use the same set of standards for all cards they grade and don't just tighten the crtieria for one set. It would seem if you were looking at corners or centering then you would use the same tools and assessment techniques and come to the same conclusions regardless of the set involved though those standards could adjust over time.
I have chosen two additional sets, one for you and one for me. Both with the same analysis.

1964 Philadelphia FB
AS of 1/23/03:

3075 total cards graded (all reported cards are NQ)

PSA 10 : 1 ..... .03%
PSA 9: 259 ...... 8.42%
PSA 8: 1564 ..... 50.86%
PSA 7: 661 ......21.50%
PSA 6: 236 ..... 7.68%

Since then,

an additional 4400 cards graded

PSA 10: 25 ...... .57%
PSA 9: 452 ...... 10.27%
PSA 8: 2345 ..... 53.30%
PSA 7: 925 ..... 21.02%
PSA 6: 368 ..... 8.36%


1966 Topps Football
AS of 9/1/03

3285 total cards graded (all reported cards are NQ)

PSA 10: 5 ....... .15%
PSA 9: 119 ...... 3.62%
PSA 8: 1420 ....43.23%
PSA 7: 1103 .... 33.58%
PSA 6: 278 ...... 8.46%

Since then , an additional 1128 cards graded

PSA 10: 0 ...... 0%
PSA 9: 46 ....... 4.08%
PSA 8: 515 .... 48.66%
PSA 7: 344 ...... 30.50%
PSA 6 : 129 .... 11.44%

For both of these sets the total percentage of cards in PSA 8 and better has increased by at least 5%. That could be used to argue the standard is actually looser now than then. I think that is wrong but it is statistics. I suspect that the key to the analysis here is that both of these sets are graded in significantly less quantity that the earlier 57 T BB work. I would put forth that becasue they are graded in less numbers the likelyhood is that a higher number of better condition raw cards exist for the sets I list and with an improving submission eye of the general population of submitters, I think this makes sense.
At some point it will get harder and harder to find submittable high grade vintage cards. Frank, you may be documenting that that fact is already occuring on this set. If the FB numbers provide a guide to the better screening of submitters, then your drop even further showing that it is getting much harder quicker than some had thought.
In God we trust ....... all others bring data.
Fuzz

Mantlefan

Fuzz, you make a lot of good points. Actually my post was originally a response to another forum which argued that using the 1961 Topps BB set numbers, PSA grading has become more lenient [presumably due to the recent increased volume of submissions putting more pressure on the graders.]

I agree with your analysis that availability is the key.....best illustrated by the huge increase in PSA 10 1964 Phillys [from 1 to 25!].