Are priceguides so far behind as to be worthless?
ddink
Posts: 2,748
I hope EVP won't mind me quoting one of his posts from another thread:
<< <i>Basically, I assert that the published price guides as waaaaaaaaaaay off for most of this stuff. The real knowledgeable market for this is VERY different. >>
I've heard this repeatedly in the present market for coins. Now I understand that priceguides must always lag behind the market somewhat--since the market creates the prices that the guides record, there must always be a lag time. However, I'm unable to understand how the price guides can be so far off. Take the greysheet for example: frequently you hear discussions of series where the sheet is WAY off (I think EVP most probably was referring to greysheet in his previous post). Why is that the case? What are the editors of the price guides doing wrong?
If you talk to other dealers and collectors, you read message boards, you familiarize yourself with the prices things are selling for on the bourse floor, then how can you be THAT far behind current trends? If an 1893-S Morgan is routinely selling for $2800 in G-4, and you quote the price as $2700, then that's understandable. Presumably, due to the number of times the letter "a" shows up in "waaaaaaaaaaaay," the sheet is nowhere remotely close to the price. I guess I don't understand why the editors don't fix this. If they are 10% of the value of a coin, I can understand, since we're in a very dynamic market right now. But how can you be "waaaaaaaaaaaay" off the true selling price for these coins if you are even paying the slightest attention to the market?
Any thoughts?
EDIT: EVP's quote was made in the context of seated dimes, quarters, etc. I do hear people talking on this board all the time about price guides being way behind in regards to other series too, not just seated material. That's what prompted this thread, though I used EVP's quote as one specific example.
<< <i>Basically, I assert that the published price guides as waaaaaaaaaaay off for most of this stuff. The real knowledgeable market for this is VERY different. >>
I've heard this repeatedly in the present market for coins. Now I understand that priceguides must always lag behind the market somewhat--since the market creates the prices that the guides record, there must always be a lag time. However, I'm unable to understand how the price guides can be so far off. Take the greysheet for example: frequently you hear discussions of series where the sheet is WAY off (I think EVP most probably was referring to greysheet in his previous post). Why is that the case? What are the editors of the price guides doing wrong?
If you talk to other dealers and collectors, you read message boards, you familiarize yourself with the prices things are selling for on the bourse floor, then how can you be THAT far behind current trends? If an 1893-S Morgan is routinely selling for $2800 in G-4, and you quote the price as $2700, then that's understandable. Presumably, due to the number of times the letter "a" shows up in "waaaaaaaaaaaay," the sheet is nowhere remotely close to the price. I guess I don't understand why the editors don't fix this. If they are 10% of the value of a coin, I can understand, since we're in a very dynamic market right now. But how can you be "waaaaaaaaaaaay" off the true selling price for these coins if you are even paying the slightest attention to the market?
Any thoughts?
EDIT: EVP's quote was made in the context of seated dimes, quarters, etc. I do hear people talking on this board all the time about price guides being way behind in regards to other series too, not just seated material. That's what prompted this thread, though I used EVP's quote as one specific example.
I heard they were making a French version of Medal of Honor. I wonder how many hotkeys it'll have for "surrender."
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Just one example: 2001(p) SAC in MS69 listed at $75. I'll pay roughly 10x that price (or more) for a nice PCGS coin.
Wondercoin
it might be worth noting that most everyone makes the same mistake with ANY price guide as illustrated above, that being the assumption that the price of a certain coin in a certain grade is a fixed number. with the above example, if there were some listing for the next higher grade, the actual price for the 2001-P Sac would start at somewhere below $75 yet above the MS68 price and end somewhere below the MS70 price.
the operative word is guide, we should let it function as one.
al h.
-YN Currently Collecting & Researching Colonial World Coins, Especially Spanish Coins, With a Great Interest in WWII Militaria.
My Ebay!
Take a minute and look at how many MS Sac Registry sets there presently are, as compared to MS Morgans. Not as "thin" as you might first imagine.
Wondercoin
I just find it peculiar that sheet seems SO FAR off the actual price sometimes. A little off, sure. But this is just crazy!
I do not mind being quoted, especially in such an educational thread... However, I think I was being quoted out of context in a very important way.
I was referring to nearly all price guides, including CDN and CWT, but only for the Seated series because that market is very thinly traded -- or privately traded -- for the truly solid or nice pieces. The typical piece commonly traded in the market is at best one level above caca. Cleaned, wiped, dipped out, etc. ...
Look at what CWT says about an 1851 Orig $ in MS63... Dipped out 61 and 62 specimens are going for more than that. That 49-O 25c that I wrote about never even saw the light of day.
The price guides must lag the market; that is obvious. But, they frequently lag too far because of lack of man-power, demand for data and lack of available data. Both the Sterling and Share dollar sets sold privately. The H10c set too.
No way the publishers can update their numbers based on these transactions... Who the heck would sell these nice coins based on such low numbers? What do the guides say about the wondercoin 73CC in 65?
BTW, the guides can also be too optimistic on certain thinly traded issues. The 75-S/CC TD comes to mind...
EVP
How does one get a hater to stop hating?
I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com
Take Ikes. I've asked David to take my sight unseen buy prices for some of the high end clad stuff. He won;t listen. When I've been offering 50% more than the "PCGS RETAIL PRICE", for 2+ years, I think the prices are just a little off.
on the other hand the next level down and most of the silvers are over priced.
Ikes have not changed since they are originally in the price guide. The only thing that has changed is the addition of the Type I, II and III Ikes.
Ike Specialist
Finest Toned Ike I've Ever Seen, been looking since 1986
<< <i>Are priceguides so far behind as to be worthless? >>
Might depend on which end of the transaction you're on. I'm also sure if certain coins suddenly were trading for below sheet prices (due to not being caught up) the dealers would mention the sheets are wrong and sell at the current, lower, trading market..... (holding breath)
up with a dynamic market but for years they've listed gem clad quarters as being
worth only 75c or a dollar apiece. Now suddenly in the 2005 edition they're listed
from three to ten dollars or more each. While the prices have been rising for some
time, the move certainly wasn't only in the last year.
More interestingly though is that even these new prices are generally greatly under-
stated. They list a gem '83-P for $40 which is only about a third higher than the roll
price while this coin is quite scarce! Also of interest is the price listed for gem clad
dimes. These are mostly listed at 20c to 50c in the 2005 edition! While these are us-
ually far more available than the quarters, it takes an active imagination to think you
can pick many up at these prices. It's also difficult to believe that these won't be listed
higher at some point in the future.
Jay
(edit: actually, color and luster are two of the most important factor of eye appeal and that's what the price guides cannot account for... extraordinary coins command extraordinary prices.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
roadrunner