DMPL's, CC's, and High Grade Common Date Morgans......Be Careful!
dragon
Posts: 4,548 ✭✭
I've been a fairly serious collector of DMPL, PL, and high grade Morgans for quite a few years now, primarily in DMPL Carson City common dates and high grade common date -S- mints, and I would strongly caution anyone looking to collect/invest in many of these coins at current price levels for the following reasons:
1) Prices have moved up too fast to quickly on many of these coins, especially some of the semi-key date CC's in high grade, common date CC's in DMPL, and high grade -S- mints. Many of these coins have doubled or tripled in value within the past 18 months or so, they exist in the multi thousands for many common -S- mints and DMPL CC's, and generally anytime something spikes in price so much so quickly, it turns out not to be neither sustainable nor a good long term value....... whether it be a stock price, a collectable, or otherwise.
2) Again, many of the common date CC's in DMPL exist in multi thousand certified quantities, yet have risen in price in a dramatic way recently. This in my opinion is not the result of normal market demand but rather the hoarding and subsequent price manipulation of a few selected dealers/collectors/investors......and when they decide the time is right to sell, prices for these coins can literally fall off a cliff in short order.
3) Because of the dramatic price spike for many CC and high grade common dates, even very marginal certified coins now bring very strong prices in the marketplace. This is double jeopardy in my opinion as some of the coins are very weak for the stated certified grade and the buyer at these levels takes on two distinct risks, the market risk, and the 'plastic' risk. When the market comes back down, the low end coins will trade at a significant discount to even the new lowered prices.
4) Some dealers now appear to now be setting their own higher and higher price levels on many of the coins I speak of based on their lack of wide availability and their own opinions of the marketplace, as well as the individual coins quality. Many of the current pricies appear to be more hype and promotion than reality or rarity or desirability, and this has always been a danger sign of unsustainable high prices in the past in my experience.
While it's now common knowledge that the internet and set registries has created a whole new marketplace, I do not believe there is truly anywhere near the widespread collector demand to justify the skyrocketing pricing on many CC's, DMPL's, and super grade common date Morgans, but is rather the result of massive hoarding and speculating by a relatively small group of individuals. If true, these very high prices can free fall in a matter of weeks when positions are liquidated, leaving the casual collector with massive paper losses on his coins.
While I still continue to hold quite a few of the coins I speak of that I've owned for many years because of their personal collector appeal to me, I have also sold quite a few into this market, and would be extremely cautious in buying any more at these new inflated price levels. Then again, I remember the internet stock craze, the precious metals markets in the late 70's, the coin market of 1988-89, etc.
Just my .02 and personal views on the current marketplace for DMPL's, CC's, and high grade common date dollars.
dragon
edited for typos
1) Prices have moved up too fast to quickly on many of these coins, especially some of the semi-key date CC's in high grade, common date CC's in DMPL, and high grade -S- mints. Many of these coins have doubled or tripled in value within the past 18 months or so, they exist in the multi thousands for many common -S- mints and DMPL CC's, and generally anytime something spikes in price so much so quickly, it turns out not to be neither sustainable nor a good long term value....... whether it be a stock price, a collectable, or otherwise.
2) Again, many of the common date CC's in DMPL exist in multi thousand certified quantities, yet have risen in price in a dramatic way recently. This in my opinion is not the result of normal market demand but rather the hoarding and subsequent price manipulation of a few selected dealers/collectors/investors......and when they decide the time is right to sell, prices for these coins can literally fall off a cliff in short order.
3) Because of the dramatic price spike for many CC and high grade common dates, even very marginal certified coins now bring very strong prices in the marketplace. This is double jeopardy in my opinion as some of the coins are very weak for the stated certified grade and the buyer at these levels takes on two distinct risks, the market risk, and the 'plastic' risk. When the market comes back down, the low end coins will trade at a significant discount to even the new lowered prices.
4) Some dealers now appear to now be setting their own higher and higher price levels on many of the coins I speak of based on their lack of wide availability and their own opinions of the marketplace, as well as the individual coins quality. Many of the current pricies appear to be more hype and promotion than reality or rarity or desirability, and this has always been a danger sign of unsustainable high prices in the past in my experience.
While it's now common knowledge that the internet and set registries has created a whole new marketplace, I do not believe there is truly anywhere near the widespread collector demand to justify the skyrocketing pricing on many CC's, DMPL's, and super grade common date Morgans, but is rather the result of massive hoarding and speculating by a relatively small group of individuals. If true, these very high prices can free fall in a matter of weeks when positions are liquidated, leaving the casual collector with massive paper losses on his coins.
While I still continue to hold quite a few of the coins I speak of that I've owned for many years because of their personal collector appeal to me, I have also sold quite a few into this market, and would be extremely cautious in buying any more at these new inflated price levels. Then again, I remember the internet stock craze, the precious metals markets in the late 70's, the coin market of 1988-89, etc.
Just my .02 and personal views on the current marketplace for DMPL's, CC's, and high grade common date dollars.
dragon
edited for typos
0
Comments
I believe the DMPL dollars have been undervalued for how rare they are compared to the non PL/DMPL for the 4 years I have been around. The price spikes now I believe are just bringing these coins up to their rightful places.
I am personally putting together the short S Set of Morgan dollars right now in ms68 (78 S in ms67) and believe the prices for these coins are about what they should be for the rarity of the grade.
just my quick opinion.
Yeah CCs are neat and the dealers all claim that the CCs are flying out the door. Yet they all have big CC inventories, especially the common dates. As soon as one flies out the door they seem to have no problem replacing it.
While a Morgan in 67-68 is a wonderful sight to behold, I have to say that I cannot see paying four figures for a coin that can be had for $300 in 66 PL. But thats just me.
CG
<< <i>I have to say that I cannot see paying four figures for a coin that can be had for $300 in 66 PL >>
you are a little behind on your prices. 66 non PL's go for at least $340, Pl's are going for at least $400.
I paid $3000 for a 1879 S PCGS ms68 at the ANA show and thought it was a great deal. Heck I wish I would have found a 81s and a 82s for those prices!
Mike
Visit Our Website @ www.numisvision.com
Specializing in DMPL Dollars, MONSTER toners and other Premium Quality U.S. Coins
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I do agree that prices have reached the limit even for ms63dmpls and I think i have gotten to the point where CC's dmpls are off the board. Unless I see one in person that is pq and I have to have.
Dragon if you don't mind sharing what do you think is a fair price for common date dmpls and cc dmpls. It helps us fairly new guys to hear from those more experienced. thanks.
Chris
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
I'll wait out this current market. It's ridiculous.
<< <i>bear! What did I tell you yesterday-the jelly dounuts are inthe mail! >>
I figured he'd prefer a picnic basket straight from Jellystone.
<<< The price spikes now I believe are just bringing these coins up to their rightful places >>>
<<< these coins are NOT coming back onto the market anytime soon. >>>
<<< LOAD ME UP! >>>
<<< sell them to ME!!!!!! >>>
<<< WE NEED TO BUY THEM. >>>
To be fair....these are all statements from dealers with a vested interest in their inventories.
Hmmmm.......I remember hearing very similar comments at the 1988 (or was it '89?) ANA Summer Convention in Cincinnati from John Highfill and Iraj Sayah after I commented to them on the seemingly absurd market prices for generic gold and high grade common date dollars......and we all know what happened about 6-12 months later. However I'm sure my original cautionary statements were unfounded, and THIS time it's different.
You're a seasoned and very knowledgeable veteran from the dealer ranks... What's YOUR opinion on this issue? And, why? I'm sure many here want to glean from your wisdom.
EVP
How does one get a hater to stop hating?
I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com
Perhaps I missed it and it's already been hashed out (it's late for me, and I'm tired), but I think it is very important that we focus on what is causing the price movement. Is it dealer speculation, or is it increased demand from a well-heeled collector base? Or, something else? Or, a little of both? Has this market been able to develop its own legs now?
EVP
How does one get a hater to stop hating?
I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com
Steve -
I like most DMPL coins, not just Morgans. But I won't pay ANY price just because I like a coin. The price has to be sensible.
I have no opinion on the current state of the DMPL market. I haven't been playing that game and don't know "the levels". That's one of the reasons why I asked Laura for her insights. But I can say that from a collector's viewpoint, I couldn't care less who else is buying at the moment. Even if they're foreigners. I prefer to make up my own mind as to whether or not the coin is a good long term value.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>Pat, you're wrong on both counts. San Diego property prices were ridiculous when I left in 97, and they are even more so now. Sooner or later they will drop as well, as soon as the socialists in Sacramento manage to drive more businesses out of the state. As in real estate, coin prices can and do go down, it's only a matter of time. >>
Ok Eric. But, had I listened to your advice back then I'd have a shoe box full of rent receipts instead of $890,000.00 in equity.
Regardless, I stand by my simple premise, pretty coins- whether that's Ultra Cameos; wonderfully and brightly toned, or DCAM/UltraCameo Morgans, will always have, at minimum, a warm place in enthusiasts hearts, or, best case, a continued passion for the true Collector. Either scenerio sees prices climbing. (The drops recorded are those coins that are common not only in mintages but in appearances.)
Each recent and past auction experience proves this out. Buy the absolute BEST (I read that as 'most attactive' for the series) and your downside in extremely minimal.
peacockcoins
I will begin my collection of PR 70 DCAM Memorial Cents immediately.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>Buy the absolute BEST (I read that as 'most attactive' for the series) and your downside in extremely minimal. I will begin my collection of PR 70 DCAM Memorial Cents immediately. >>
If that is your series, then go for it.
You'll notice though, I never mentioned grade. You do. I simply stated, "buy the absolute BEST (I read that as 'most attractive' for the series) and your downside is minimal."
A Barber half in PR65 CAMEO might be a more attractive/prettier coin than one in MS66. A Barber in XF45 might be more attractive than one in MS61!
It's not grade that should be the goal, but attractive coins within your series. Again, if that's Memorial Proof Lincolns for you, have at it!
peacockcoins
I agree, of course. But I'm still unwilling to pay ANY price for the coins I want. I guess I'm old fashioned like that.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>It's not grade that should be the goal, but attractive coins within your series. I agree, of course. But I'm still unwilling to pay ANY price for the coins I want. I guess I'm old fashioned like that. >>
Two for two. I agree. I've been looking to purchase a smooth, even, problem free GD04 Mercury 1916-D dime and have about given up!
What used to be a $300.00 coin turned into a $450.00 coin and is now about a $750.00 coin! In fact there is a PCGS AG03 on eBay now (PCGS AG03 ) that is priced a bit over $600.00 and I'm even thinking about just biting the bullet and buying it!
I won't just pay "any" price on a coin, I agree with you on that, but I'm learning that on coins with value and the ones that are truly desireable, if I wait too long, the price is higher when I do decide to stop waiting and buy.
peacockcoins
That's a key lesson. Even more important is learning which coins have solid value and are "truly desireable". Otherwise, you could use that philosophy to justify any purchase at almost any price. Not that anyone here would do such a thing.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I figure I can rebuild and finish the CC & S set at much lower prices in the future and wait for the next run up.
I do find them very attractive, DMPL.
The problem with Dragon's opening remarks is the failure to specify what grade he is talking about. For example, comparing an 1884-cc in 64 dmpl with a 66 dmpl is ridiculous.
It is a case of supply and demand. Demand has been strong. People are realizing that pls and dmpls have more eye appeal, and greater population rarity, than their non-mirrored counterparts, and in many cases, could be purchased at a slight premium. That is eroding, but it should. Why should a 64 dmpl ever sell for a slight premium of a regular 64? That's a ridiculous proposition in any grade. There is no reason to think interest in pls and dmpls will fall, as over time the truly lower population coins have proven to hold their own in terms of value. So, I think the low pop dollars in pl and dmpl are not overpriced by any stretch. Why? They rarely come on the market. I've had trouble even getting a set 90% complete in mirrored condition (I'll be there after a few crossovers, should I ever get around to it).
I have seen many lower grade pls and dmpls sell for higher prices recently. Are they out of line? Not when you consider their counterparts. A typical 64pl may be going up in price, but in part because a non-mirrored 65 is going up in price. Look at a rare date in non-pl, like a 1903-s. Try and find one of those near bid. If the non-mirrored coins are trading at premiums, it is only natural to think the mirrored coins are going to trade at a premium.
I'm happy to buy in this market. Anyone got my stuff, just let me know.
Link to interesting coin
You have uttered a true statement.
I aspire to be the market maker in AG03 Indian cents. The only problem is finding someone who will pay me more than I have to pay to acquire them. I do have a fully good, no problem '82. I need a dollar for it but those ebay fees....
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
<<< A typical 64pl may be going up in price, but in part because a non-mirrored 65 is going up in price. Look at a rare date in non-pl, like a 1903-s. Try and find one of those near bid. If the non-mirrored coins are trading at premiums, it is only natural to think the mirrored coins are going to trade at a premium. >>>
Lava,
I appreciate your comments however I was mainly referring to a specific small group of generic related coins, and not all Morgan dollars in general, but rather the ones with relatively high pop's that have literally doubled or tripled in value in the recent past.
The 1903-S is not really a good analogy as that is considered to be a semi key date and expensive coin with a low pop, and is also nearly non existent in PL or DMPL, and always has been.
My original post referred to mainly common dates such as the 1882-CC, 1883-CC, 1884-CC in MS63DMPL - MS66DMPL, and to a lesser extent dates like the 1878-CC, 1881-CC and 1885-CC in DMPL..... as well as coins like the 1891-CC and 1892-CC in regular MS64 and MS65. Also generic common date -S- mints in MS67, and many other common dates in DMPL grades.
Lava - I can't tell you which is the best value until you show me the 66DMPL (or PL) and tell me it's price. Also, it's misleading to compare pops of 66DMPL's to 67 non-DMPL's. Comparing prices is more relevant.
BTW, I underbid a 1912-D dime in MS 66 that sold for $4600 at the Pittsburgh ANA because the coin was DMPL, I thought it was really cool looking, and I had never seen one like that. (Link to coin.) So rest assured that I understand the appeal of DMPL coins and will pay what I think are appropriate (sometimes huge) premiums. But I do have my limits.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
The cry of "Home pricing has peaked! Property prices must drop!" almost kept us out of the market. Thank goodness we didn't listen as our home is now close to one million (as reflected in a home, a few doors down, selling within four days, for the full asking price).">>
The economy sure took it in the shorts under Gee Dubbya and the boyz dint it? Oh well!! So it goes for the gloom n doomers.
<< <i>Wait for the inevitable market collapse then scoop 'em up cheap. >>
HMMM, All those folks who bought those high dollar DMPL's are just gonna be a jumpin at the chance to sell em to you for half of what they paid, NOT!!
Let's assume we go sight-unseen, pcgs. I would think reasonable estimates of sale prices might be:
ms65 dmpl $2000-$2750 (probably $2600)
ms66 $2200-$2500 (probably $2500)
ms66pl $2500-$3000 (probably closer to $3000)
ms66dmpl $6000-$8000
ms67 $8000
I know it is an inexact science, but we have to start somewhere. Assuming my estimates are in the universe of realistic possibilities, look at the population numbers (as of Jan 2004):
ms67s -- 35
ms66 dmpls -- 45
ms66pls -- 15
ms66s -- 543
Based on these numbers alone, and taking into account the sight-unseen factor, to me the 66pl is the best value, given the large number of 66s behind it, and the few number of coins in all grades ahead of it. If it costs $2500 to get a ms66 and have a coin in the top 650 1885-ccs in a pcgs holder, why not spend another $500 for a 66pl and have a coin in the top 100 1885-ccs in a pcgs holder.
So, my point is that pls and dmpls are going up, but in part because their non-mirrored counterparts are going up, and given the choice, pls and dmpls represent the better value, even in today's market with the recent (last 1-2 years) increase in prices.
By the way, if we were near the peak, we would see a flood of coins hitting the market, and the market being unable to digest the coins at current price levels. With the recent ANA auctions, we did see a fair number of pls and dmpls, and even coins average for the grade did well. Nicer coins went for very healthy money. I don't think the market had any problem digesting those coins at the recent price levels.
For what it is worth, at the ANA I bid fairly aggressively on a large number of coins, and very aggressively on a small number of coins. Fairly aggressive bids were by and large losing bids, and very aggressive bids were by and large winning bids. Since the pls and dmpls sell for very aggressive bids, and given their comparative scarcity to their non-mirrored counterparts, I think the high-end coins are still reasonable.
Just my thoughts. Hoped someone gains something from this.
Most collector's keep thier coins for some time. Thats a face.
The dealer on the other hand need to move coins in and out of inventor and make a living, therefore More effected by the market change.
DON"T buy low grade common coins even if ther never go down they never go up and when showing off ones collection (who likes showing off eye sores)
A gem is still a gem even if the price drops. (stocks go up and down so do coins)
"After the third Persian war won by the Greeks on land at Thermopylia and the sea at Salamis, the Grecian Empire became the only super power left in its day, ushering in the golden age of prosperity for Greece, cultivating in wealth and global trade(in their known world at the time)creating boundless opportunity for its average citizen bold enough to seize the day. The Greek currency dominated the world as its military dominated.
After the third Punic war between Carthage and Rome, the city was sown with salt insuring no more challenges, leaving Rome the only super power left in the world and ushering in the golden age of Rome. Global trade and prosperity for the Romans,well you know the story.
The US finished the third war this century becoming the only super power left in our day. Vanquishing all opponents of the free market system. The golden age of prosperity and global trade has just begun and we are part of it."
Wondercoin
Lava - I'll keep my answer simple by assuming that all coins are "average for the grade". The reason why the PL is only an extra $500 is because the average PL is not that much cooler looking than a non-PL.
In other words, the "PL" designation doesn't and shouldn't have a lot of value unless the coin has pretty serious mirrors, especially on CC's where super DMPL's exist and make mere PL's seem like nothing special.
DMPL's are another story. I don't have a problem in the least with 66DMPL's trading at or above 67 non-DMPL prices.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Sounds more like a group of rich IDIOTS are doing the buying, with more money than brains. They probably will sell as soon as they find they have no real interest in the coins, or when they find there's no profit anymore in it.
In other words, the "PL" designation doesn't and shouldn't have a lot of value unless the coin has pretty serious mirrors, especially on CC's where super DMPL's exist and make mere PL's seem like nothing special. ..
Andy: My own personal opinion as a long-time Morgan Dollar PL/DMPL collector, who is value oriented, is that nice high-end PL CC Morgans coins are much more attractive than regular frosty (non-PL) coins.
I also take a value-oriented approach in which I prefer to purchase coins in what I consider to be the "Best Value Grade", similar to QDB's concept, but I sometimes disagree with him on which specific grade that is per coin (partly personal preference and commercial decision).
Based on the above, my "sweet spot" for my personal Morgan Dollar collection, and my PL/DMPL Registry Set, is to purchase high-end MS-64 PL coins that are near-miss MS-65 DMPL's. This way I get the high eye-appeal of a gem MS-65 DMPL Morgan without having to pay what I personally feel is too steep a current market pricing premium for both the MS-65 grade (over 64) and the DMPL designation (over PL).
I will restate that these are my own personal preferences, and they work well for my own personal collection and buying habits. I'd be interested in others' comments on this topic. This is a great thread!!
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
Stuart - It's hard to argue with that! Now, go find them.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Andy: Exactly! That's where is becomes fun for me because I enjoy hunting for that "just right" coin at a reasonable price. Since I'm a collector I do not have the pressure of maintaining inventory and having to sell coins to pay my bills and live. It's the collector's one advantage over dealers, we can afford to be patient and hold our coins to enjoy them.
If I only purchase high eye-appeal coins that I enjoy owning, then I have no pressure to sell them, and will also have no problem selling them whe the time comes to upgrade them or to monetize my investment in them to deploy the assets elsewhere, either for additional coins of for other aspects of our personal life.
I agree that it's very tough to get high quality coins for reasonable prices in thia crazy coin market, but I'm patient an building up my want list for the time when this market corrects a bit. In the meantime, I am purchasing high-end coins for the grade to upgrade my collection, some of which have big price jumps in the next higher grade.
Here's an example:
1885-CC ANACS MS-64 DMPL - Cameo Effect Photo
1885-CC ANACS MS-64 DMPL - Normal View Photo
<< My sweet spot is to find MS65 coins in AU58 holders. >>
CoynClecter: I agree with you 100% and I am also employing this strategy for coins with very high price jumps from AU to mint state 62-63 such as the following two Morgans:
1886-O ANACS AU-58
1897-O PCGS AU-58 Morgan Dollar
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
or, it may drop. Nobody is ever sure untill the end happens. Part of the problem
is that no one is sure if we are in for inflation due to fuel prices or are we in for
recession and deflation due to an economy that is fragil. The safest way to think,
is never spend the rent money on coins, buy what you enjoy, buy the best quality
you can afford. Be prepared to go through one or more coin cycles with your holdings.
The really huge returns on coin collections are those that have been held for 20 -30 years.
The coins are either spectacular grade or spectacular color, or both. If one is seeking a quick
profit from a hobby, then become a dealer and work your ass off 60 - 70 hours a week.
Camelot