Effect of excessive price on lower grade cards?
Axtell
Posts: 10,037 ✭✭
I've been thinking this over for the past month or so...and would like the insight of the far more advanced collectors here to offer their insight.
I've been wondering what effect the huge prices on very popular, high grade cards has on cards that are of lower grade? For example, take a set that is very, very much in demand, and I would assume as prices spiral out of reach for more and more collectors, the prices on the lower grades begin to rise as well as more people look to these as viable options. I would suspect that at some point the price for, say, a 1965 common psa 9 is going to top out. People looking to complete (or begin) a set look at how much the 9s go for, look for more 8s and 7s as worthy (and more affordable) replacements. With more and more people wanting to attain graded sets, does anyone else see this as a trend as well? Or am I completely off base here, as commons in lower grades have consistenly held their pricing for a long period of time?
It just seems that those newer to the set registry idea (such as myself) see how much those with seriously deep pockets can throw at a project (like the before mentioned 1965 set) and look at lower grade cards as a result. I speak of this as a result of purchasing the start of my 1971 baseball set....I purchased a few 7 commons, and was startled to see just how good of a card it looks for receiving 'just' a 7 (knicks on the edges, hardly noticeable, are surely what got these cards 7s). This set I am collecting isn't so much an investment, but more for personal enjoyment, ties to my past (the year I was born), and, well I just love the looks of the cards.
Anyone else thought about this as well? I am hoping the demand on the '71s doesn't end up killing the affordability of the 7 market.
I've been wondering what effect the huge prices on very popular, high grade cards has on cards that are of lower grade? For example, take a set that is very, very much in demand, and I would assume as prices spiral out of reach for more and more collectors, the prices on the lower grades begin to rise as well as more people look to these as viable options. I would suspect that at some point the price for, say, a 1965 common psa 9 is going to top out. People looking to complete (or begin) a set look at how much the 9s go for, look for more 8s and 7s as worthy (and more affordable) replacements. With more and more people wanting to attain graded sets, does anyone else see this as a trend as well? Or am I completely off base here, as commons in lower grades have consistenly held their pricing for a long period of time?
It just seems that those newer to the set registry idea (such as myself) see how much those with seriously deep pockets can throw at a project (like the before mentioned 1965 set) and look at lower grade cards as a result. I speak of this as a result of purchasing the start of my 1971 baseball set....I purchased a few 7 commons, and was startled to see just how good of a card it looks for receiving 'just' a 7 (knicks on the edges, hardly noticeable, are surely what got these cards 7s). This set I am collecting isn't so much an investment, but more for personal enjoyment, ties to my past (the year I was born), and, well I just love the looks of the cards.
Anyone else thought about this as well? I am hoping the demand on the '71s doesn't end up killing the affordability of the 7 market.
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I go after pre war stuff and have basically forgotten about high grade product. I would rather have a big group of 4 or 5 level Diamond Stars than one or two 8's or 9's. Likewise on T206s and other tobacco issues I'm happy with 3's or 4's.
The set registry is still unknown to many collectors. Watch the population reports on the sets you like and I suspect you will find it increasing rapidly. For example I am trying to put together a low grade (average 3.5) C55 hockey set and I printed the POP report in May. As of today its up 15% across the board in additional cards graded - and C55 is a pretty rare set.
I'm sitting on thousands of older 'raw' cards and I'm sure there are thousands like me. You can expect graded card populations to continue to increase as collectors use eBay more and more and come to view graded cards as less risky than raw. The set registry also clearly drives demand for grading. I'm working on a few older sets now and I'll buy them graded so I'm less likely to buy a fake and I'm in the process of getting my raw cards in those sets graded also. My older complete sets look fine in albums and I cannot imagine going to the expense of getting 400 to 700 card sets graded.
Hall of Famers from all 4 sports
demand for PSA 7's would have to grow quite a bit to upset the current supply currently out there, so a set would have to get white hot in order to see a 50% jump in prices.
Most likely PSA 7's will remain the same for a while, they are usually steady and will reflect the overall market in a smaller scale.
For the 71 set however you should shoot for an average of 7.5 at least.
place low bids on 8's and you will be surprise how many you will pick up over time, just a couple of dollars more per card and you will build quite a nice set.
high pop 8's look great and are cheap
Groucho Marx