The ANA show from a different perspective!
jdimmick
Posts: 9,674 ✭✭✭✭✭
For the record, This was my first time being at a show of this magnitude and being on the other side of the table. As a participant at a few prior ANA shows only as a collector, I found out this side to be quite intresting and a learning experience to say the least. First, I attended the show from opening on Wednesday morning to Saturday afternoon. It was a privledge to be able to walk the bourse floor prior to the public being allowed in to search for anything I might be intrested in aquiring for my-self. It seems to be quite a bit more relaxing looking at dealers inventories with out all the extra folks around. Also, I have seen first hand that some of the best material gets bought up by other dealers long before the public even gets access to the bourse floor. I have always suspected this, but it was confirmed at this show. Also, in most cases the coins that get picked off early by dealers from other dealers, usually are going to fill client want lists and into thier own inventories to be sold at a later time, not into the showcases at the show. Thats is why most, never get to see them. Their is a tremendous amount of dealer to dealer transactions at these shows, strong 4 and 5 figure coins continually change hands during and after the show. In this area, it really pays to know your specialty, I was prevy to several coins that traded hands three to four times within a short period of time with a substantial mark-up occuring at each transaction. For an example: One coin was bought over the counter for 8k then sold for 11k, then sold again for 14k. Thier is some real strong money to be made in this market, if you know your game and have a good cutomer base and solid contacts.
As far as market conditions, from what I have seen their appears to be no slowing in the near future at least for the nicer quality tougher to locate material. Several tougher coins were picked up by collectors/ as well as the speculators at very strong prices. When prices were quoted, even in some cases three to four times listing(s), people still bought and were happy to aquire them. I am not as familair with the Early bust and Seated market as I would like to be, but strong prices did not seem to stand in several folks way if they liked the coin. However, many of those that are paying the strong money have become very discriminating collectors, who want quality for thier strong purchase price. I did tend to see several coins that are always typically availble sit unwanted in dealers cases, mainly due to the quality and price. Also, its those same coins that continue to turn over and over at everyshow.
Coming from a local area where I attend shows mainly as a collector, there has always been a perception that so many coins are rare that really are not. This is becuase many dont see them as frequently at the smaller type shows until one attends a show of this magnitude and see several specimens(some times in the hundreds) available and at just about every table. After attending several of these shows, you really begin to gain knowledge on which coins are truly scarce and which ones are frequently available. It begins to change your peception of rarity!
I was able to view hundreds of auction lots and look closely at each coin as I went thru several box's. It is amazing how some of these coins even get into holders. Each and everytime I have had the chance to do this, you can really see how the crackout artists have lowered the overall quality of coins by maxing out the holders on a majority of specimens. Its almost a joy when you find one that is PQ or one graded to the so-called tighter standards. They are getting fewer and fewer by the hundreds. I witnessed several folks pouring over auction lots and the bourse looking to find one they can upgrade where thier is a decent spread. I witnessed Folks submitting as many as 40 coins at a time at $100 a pop trying to get that extra point.
Also while attending this show, it is clearly visible that thier are two or more types of buyers, the early bird folks looking to find that tough certified coin(either a specific date or type) that is not as frequently availble and are usually looking at the bigger dollar items. They usually come in the first two days of the show. Then later in the show towards late friday and saturday, you begin to see the average collector that is filling holes in albums and looking for circualted dates and type pieces, families, etc. Some of the dealers dont cater to these folks, but many of them do, depending on the type of coins they sell. Also, many dealers who dont set up come looking to fill customer want lists to take back with them, and basically fall into the above categories.
I will not go into much about the material that was thier as many posts have been mentioned allready and there will be several more to come I imagine. But I was privledged to see some great collections including the Seated $ collection, Cardinal's Early $, and Jim M 's collection of Half cents and many others. All in all, I had a fabulous time, met some great people including several board members and have to personally thank Steve Elwood for inviting me to his table.
jim d
As far as market conditions, from what I have seen their appears to be no slowing in the near future at least for the nicer quality tougher to locate material. Several tougher coins were picked up by collectors/ as well as the speculators at very strong prices. When prices were quoted, even in some cases three to four times listing(s), people still bought and were happy to aquire them. I am not as familair with the Early bust and Seated market as I would like to be, but strong prices did not seem to stand in several folks way if they liked the coin. However, many of those that are paying the strong money have become very discriminating collectors, who want quality for thier strong purchase price. I did tend to see several coins that are always typically availble sit unwanted in dealers cases, mainly due to the quality and price. Also, its those same coins that continue to turn over and over at everyshow.
Coming from a local area where I attend shows mainly as a collector, there has always been a perception that so many coins are rare that really are not. This is becuase many dont see them as frequently at the smaller type shows until one attends a show of this magnitude and see several specimens(some times in the hundreds) available and at just about every table. After attending several of these shows, you really begin to gain knowledge on which coins are truly scarce and which ones are frequently available. It begins to change your peception of rarity!
I was able to view hundreds of auction lots and look closely at each coin as I went thru several box's. It is amazing how some of these coins even get into holders. Each and everytime I have had the chance to do this, you can really see how the crackout artists have lowered the overall quality of coins by maxing out the holders on a majority of specimens. Its almost a joy when you find one that is PQ or one graded to the so-called tighter standards. They are getting fewer and fewer by the hundreds. I witnessed several folks pouring over auction lots and the bourse looking to find one they can upgrade where thier is a decent spread. I witnessed Folks submitting as many as 40 coins at a time at $100 a pop trying to get that extra point.
Also while attending this show, it is clearly visible that thier are two or more types of buyers, the early bird folks looking to find that tough certified coin(either a specific date or type) that is not as frequently availble and are usually looking at the bigger dollar items. They usually come in the first two days of the show. Then later in the show towards late friday and saturday, you begin to see the average collector that is filling holes in albums and looking for circualted dates and type pieces, families, etc. Some of the dealers dont cater to these folks, but many of them do, depending on the type of coins they sell. Also, many dealers who dont set up come looking to fill customer want lists to take back with them, and basically fall into the above categories.
I will not go into much about the material that was thier as many posts have been mentioned allready and there will be several more to come I imagine. But I was privledged to see some great collections including the Seated $ collection, Cardinal's Early $, and Jim M 's collection of Half cents and many others. All in all, I had a fabulous time, met some great people including several board members and have to personally thank Steve Elwood for inviting me to his table.
jim d
0
Comments
"After attending several of these shows, you really begin to gain knowledge on which coins are truly scarce and which ones are frequently available. It begins to change your peception of rarity!"
lemme guess... White Morgans in MS63 and MS64 aren't all that scarce?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
It's always a lot of fun to go to the "big show" and see so many things you'll never see at home!
Check out the Southern Gold Society
I am not going to paste comments from your thread as most of what you are telling us just confirms what we have been discussing for the last several weeks, in particular about dealers moving the markets up.
My real irritant with all of this is the way shows are done. This cherry picking by dealers on the first day is very bad, not only for the market, but for the hobby in general.
Long time collectors, working on sets always find it hard to fill the last holes in their sets with the harder dates.
Almost all consistent collectors have used up all the resources close to home and attending a show is supposed to bring them in contact with those coins that are harder to find being brought in from other parts of the country. Unfortunately this is not the case.
Leaving the lookers, and the general public out for the time being, many collectors looking for those hard coins go to a great deal of trouble, to say nothing of the expense, traveling to shows to finally find that coin they have be looking for, sometimes for years. When they arrive on day TWO they find that the game has been rigged, and most of what they were looking for is in a dealers briefcase headed out the door.
Thank goodness there is still the auctions, and Ebay, although these are poor substitutes in many cases.
I think that many full time collectors should consider getting the proper documents to become dealers if they are ever going to have the experience of seeing the REAL coins before they get picked over.
let me share two experiences with you from the show to carry the thought of dealers-to-dealer sales pushing/driving prices upward.
first, i'm only about two hours from Pittsburgh, so i saw quite a few local collectors from home along with at least four dealers i see weekly. there were also many that i see on the regular show circuit that live close to Pittsburgh or do shows in the area. keep in mind that there was the pre-ANA PAN Show, then there will be a 100-150 table show in Cleveland next weekend and approximately 125 table the week after that in Columbus.
#1. the dealers from home all told me they were at the show to stock up. one guy offered me an Isabella Quarter in PCGS MS63 that he'd bought at the show and about two hours later i saw him and he told me he'd sold it to another floor dealer.
#2. i know someone who found a group of coins that the dealer wasn't knowledgeable about. he was hooked up to buy them and another guy offered to buy from him at a slight increase saying that he knew someone he could sell to at another increase, probably the end buyer since he collects in that area.
i understand this is how the game is played but i think many over-eager collectors don't. if more would show some mild restraint things would calm down a bit and lower prices would be the result which is better for everyone. the dealers keep running things up and the end buyer pays the price. had i been able to attend the pre-ANA i would have. i'll be in Cleveland for Friday and don't expect i'll be allowed to buy anything but hope prices will have stopped rising by the time Columbus rolls around. i'll also try to sell then.
now that the convention is over, everyone will return home and re-price all the new stock to pay for the trip expenses. the GreySheet will reflect today in mid September, and members will bemoan the increases and bash the sheet. then they'll go to a show or dealer and cover that guy's trip expenses while justifying everthing by saying the coins are PQ, the sheet is full of crap and you'd better buy this stuff now before it dissappears into a long term collection to be held for the next run-up. it's madness!!!!!
we are killing ourselves and i hope i have a chair to sit in when the music stops.
al h.
Eventually someone will be stuck holding the overpriced coins, and this seller's market will turn into a buyer's market.
All of this competitive purchasing at auctions continues to put upward pricing pressure on coins. However, I think that I've seen in some of the ANA Show reports that the coin market may be gettign oversaturated by the numerous auctions that we have recently been barraged with.
I firmly believe that if we exercise patience and wisdom there will be some excellent purchasing opportunities coming up...
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
Goldsaint, I don't dispute that many nice coins are gone before the public has a chance. This was aggravated at the ANA since PNG day was a full day (I believe that was a first). One way to overcome that is to develop a relationship with a dealer. Many of the coins that disappeared early are going to collectors who have such a relationship. It's not as though you could be stuck with a coin you don't like - educate the dealer as to what you want and the "look" you want, and a good dealer will try very hard to find what you are looking for.
You may think it's going to cost you a lot for that, but I'm not convinced that's the case. Certainly the dealer will want to make a profit, but if the dealer gets a coin at a good price, knowing you are a likely buyer because he/she knows what you want, you could end up paying less than if you bought it yourself.
Of course, that doesn't work if you tend to buy what grabs you instead of looking for specific items. If that's the case, and you want access to the floor early, you have a couple options. Buy a table or split one with a dealer, or get to know a dealer well enough that you can help them at a show. One thing I've come to understand is that a lot of transactions are done based on relationships. Dealer A needs a coin and is good friends with Dealer B. If B is good friends with C, who has the coin, B might act as middleman. Not to mention that at the very high end, dealers have coins that they show only to their friends. If they don't know you, you never even know the coin is available. Plenty of great coins never see a display case. That keeps the coin "fresh".
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
I agree with all your points here, but am not as concerned about the price run-ups as I am about the show having little to offer the collectors by the time they get in the door.
Why not just have dealer only shows and save the collectors all the trouble of traveling.
Let me answer my own question, how would the dealers then sell all the junk they have bought to newbies and the general public?
I agree we are creating our own price increases, so at least those of us that are serious collectors should just stop going to the shows?
“ One way to overcome that is to develop a relationship with a dealer.”
Kranky,
I am sure you are right on with this comment, and it appears that some of our stronger members like TDN and others have done just that.
The only problem I see with this is that a specialist is going to have many clients looking for the same top coins, and is going to have to decide who is going to get the very few that show up.
Al and Stuart are right, the only real solution to this problem is cooling down of the market.
al h.
AL,
Since most serious collectors are addicted to their hobbies, we both know we are not going to stop.
Personally the money end of the transaction is very important to me but it is only because the money gets me to the goal, and more expensive the coins are, the slower reaching the goal becomes.
The only hope that we collectors have to seeing a market slow down is NOT seeing lots of new blood come into the market. If that happens the market keeps going. If it does not happen, the market must slow down, as the number of dollars that we have to spend remains constant, and the number of coins we can buy with that fixed dollar amount drops.
I don’t see waiting as an option as the market cycles are just to long, several years to develop, and several years to cool to the bottom.
Coins gravitate to whoever is paying the most for them. The coins which the
public doesn't see would not have brought the kind of prices that the dealers
know they can get from their customer. Auctions aren't always the most effic-
ient way to maximize price as the dealers walking out the doors with brief-
cases full of coins attests to.
It was nice having you at the table.
<< <i> After attending several of these shows, you really begin to gain knowledge on which coins are truly scarce and which ones are frequently available. It begins to change your peception of rarity! >>
<< <i>For an example: One coin was bought over the counter for 8k then sold for 11k, then sold again for 14k. >>
Knowledge in this business means money. What Jim witnessed was an uninformed dealer selling something, quite rare, for too little
money, not the end user paying too much or getting scr#wed by an unscrupulous dealer, for a coin. In this instance the collector was more knowlegable than the dealer.
hey Elwood
it would be nice if it were that simple, wouldn't it??
there were obviously some "un-intelligent" dealers/collectors grouped together for this single coin or else it's the usual game where a dealer lowballs the original owner and then nets something on the sale, an act repeated twice after he played it.
al h.
<< <i>it would be nice if it were that simple, wouldn't it?? >>
It really is that simple. I know at least a half dozen collectors and a couple dealers that do it at every show. (these are the specialists)
Then you have the crackout guys.
The only way you get taken advantage of is if you have no knowledge or limited knowledge of what you are buying.
<< <i>there were obviously some "un-intelligent" dealers/collectors grouped together for this single coin or else it's the usual game where a dealer lowballs the original owner and then nets something on the sale, an act repeated twice after he played it. >>
What if the original owner was payed 4X bid, the second owner was payed 5X bid and the final buyer payed 6X bid?
Why is it that people think they are being taken advantage of if they don't get the maximum amout possible for their coins?
I always try to sell coins at a level where there is a little left on the table for the buyer.
I'm talking about RARE coins, ones that may take you 5 or more years to acquire.