Circulating quarters in five years.
cladking
Posts: 28,649 ✭✭✭✭✭
Assuming the economy continues its recovery and there's a year tacked on at the end of the
states quarters program for DC et al, and assuming the nickel was changed when it returned
to monticello in '06 what will the circulating quarters look like?
Current trends would seem to say that nearly 25 coins in each roll will be the states coins with
many of them from late in the program. The new 2010 quarter will probably have already been
designed and there will be some excitement over getting another new design coming out. Older
clad quarters will be getting quite "scarce" in circulation with only about 1 coin per roll dated before
1979. These will usually be one of the common dates and will have significant damage about a
third of the time. The undamaged pieces will generally be in VG or lower condition. The post 1978
quarters will be found in VF with little effort but XF will be decidely tough except for the '94 and later
issues. The early states issues will usually be found in F and VF but with diligence most will be found
in AU. The "scarcest" of the obsolete clad quarters will be the '68-D and will require one to look
through about 30 rolls to find one. 50% of these will be damaged and virtually all the rest will be
unattractive examples in less than fine condition. A few dates while more common will be even more
difficult to find in attractive condition. Even some of the later dates (like the '84) will be very difficult
in attractive condition.
These predictions assume no new growth in the number of people collecting these coins which is
probably very unlikely.
The changes in relative populations and availability of better specimens of these coins has been gla-
cial since they were introduced in 1965, but has quickened greatly in the last five years and this is
certain to continue over the next five. This is not merely the result of these coins getting looked at
by collectors but also the nature of the coins themselves. The new coins have been issued with low-
er designs at a similar pace to which the older ones are wearing down. Even the planchets were
made thinner in 1999 largely to match the wear of the circulating issues. If they were to continue in
circulation long enough then there would be a startling similarity in appearance between all the is-
sues and even the states coins would mostly fit the pattern.
states quarters program for DC et al, and assuming the nickel was changed when it returned
to monticello in '06 what will the circulating quarters look like?
Current trends would seem to say that nearly 25 coins in each roll will be the states coins with
many of them from late in the program. The new 2010 quarter will probably have already been
designed and there will be some excitement over getting another new design coming out. Older
clad quarters will be getting quite "scarce" in circulation with only about 1 coin per roll dated before
1979. These will usually be one of the common dates and will have significant damage about a
third of the time. The undamaged pieces will generally be in VG or lower condition. The post 1978
quarters will be found in VF with little effort but XF will be decidely tough except for the '94 and later
issues. The early states issues will usually be found in F and VF but with diligence most will be found
in AU. The "scarcest" of the obsolete clad quarters will be the '68-D and will require one to look
through about 30 rolls to find one. 50% of these will be damaged and virtually all the rest will be
unattractive examples in less than fine condition. A few dates while more common will be even more
difficult to find in attractive condition. Even some of the later dates (like the '84) will be very difficult
in attractive condition.
These predictions assume no new growth in the number of people collecting these coins which is
probably very unlikely.
The changes in relative populations and availability of better specimens of these coins has been gla-
cial since they were introduced in 1965, but has quickened greatly in the last five years and this is
certain to continue over the next five. This is not merely the result of these coins getting looked at
by collectors but also the nature of the coins themselves. The new coins have been issued with low-
er designs at a similar pace to which the older ones are wearing down. Even the planchets were
made thinner in 1999 largely to match the wear of the circulating issues. If they were to continue in
circulation long enough then there would be a startling similarity in appearance between all the is-
sues and even the states coins would mostly fit the pattern.
Tempus fugit.
0
Comments
<< <i>yes - this appears true - interesting thoughts ...... what say ye on the nickel scene for that time period? >>
Nickels are more difficult to predict. Much will depend on the popularity of the four new designs
ending next year and on the probable elimination of the cent from everyday commerce. The nic-
kels don't circulate as freely as the quarters but do have a higher attrition. This means some ex-
amples recieve less wear but are likely lost before they become heavily worn. Smaller mintages
like the '68-S will remain difficult to find and as collectors snap up attractive pieces it will tend to
mean lower survival rates on many of these. While unc nickels were generally saved in much lar-
ger quantities than the quarters there are some dates which are not readily available in unc. These
arethe ones to watch and encompass many of the '80's and '90's issues which are in low mintage
mint sets or don't appear in sets. Like the other denominations it will be especially interesting if
collectors start seeking the varieties.
I also love to go through rolls to find coins.
BST
MySlabbedCoins
-YN Currently Collecting & Researching Colonial World Coins, Especially Spanish Coins, With a Great Interest in WWII Militaria.
My Ebay!
Pardon me while I muse on this topic.
Since the 1960's the mint has produced hunderds of millions if not billions of coins each year. The mintages of the clad dimes from 1965 through 2003 (as listed in the 8-2004 edition of Coins magazine) is approximately 62 billion. The mintages of clad quarters for the same period is approximately 60 billion.
For clad dimes and quarters we are talking over 120 billion coins. Where have these coins gone? Obviously some have been lost forever (dropped in lakes, rivers, oceans, mountains, deserts, etc.). Others have been set aside and are sitting in cans, bottles, drawers, etc. Some are in bank vaults and some are held by the Fed Reserve. Anyone care to venture guesses where the 120 billion clad dimes and quarters have gone?
I can't believe that high grade raw examples of these coins, even the harder to find ones, do not exist in large numbers. Even if the survival rate of gems is one out of every million coins produced, the total of surviving gems would be 120,000 coins. What are the populations of slabbed mint state clad dimes and quarters for the 1965-2003 time period?
I suspect that many persons have set aside new coins from circulation over the years and that many nice examples are in homes across the country waiting to see the light of day (Coinstar has probably prompted many persons to turn in their accumulated coins, does anyone on the forums have any Coinstar find stories?).
My own experience supports this. My mother passed away in the mid 90's. When the family straightened out her affairs and looked through her things, we found that she had set aside numerous coins during the mid 70's to mid 90's. Some of the coins (cent through dollar) look like they just popped out of the coining press. Since I collect, my mom's coins were given to me. Some are so nice that I have set them aside and placed them into albums. Nice clads probably do exist in large numbers, however they are probably highly dispersed and not readily available to collectors.
Yes, they were in mint sets and many mint sets survive so none of the regular issues will be rare
or particularly scarce in uncirculated condition. Gems of some dates were made in tiny quantities
if at all so obviously they will be rare but not typical uncs.
Most of those billions of clads are in circulation. If you count the older coins and compare the rela-
tive mintages you'll find about half of them are missing. These are the coins which have been de-
stroyed in fires or lost to landfills and the like. In the last few years, a few of these are going into
collections but most were lost long before now. More current coins will normally be over represented
in change because it hasn't had a chance to mix in with the older coins in piggy banks and sock draw-
ers yet. The attrition rate on newer coin is nearly the same as for the older coins but they haven't
had many years to be lost so most of the production is still in use.
The fed manages the coin supply and does store some excess coinage. The mint probably stores more
of this since the fed generally does not have a lot of "vault" space. Usually about one yearts worth of
production will be in storage and is returned to use on a first in first out basis. Generally a coin which
goes into storage will remain there about three years but this varies somewhat. Currently there are
larger amounts of coins in storage because of the slow economy.
There are very few old collections containing clad dimes and quarters. These coins are so poorly re-
searched that there remain many unrepoted varieties and there's still no reference for the quarters
except a mention in three or four other books. Mint sets have been hacked to pieces for decades and
the coins in them spent. There will be a lot of surprises for those who have started collecting them
and some of the most important pieces are still in circulation, but these coins are generally in horrid
condition and they will not improve over the next five years
1-46, 2-48's, a 56-D, 4-60's and 9-64s. I hear you about never having a shortage on the 64s! Also, I find that generally, if you find an older date in a roll, you will find another in the same roll.
Seventies produced from this search revealed the following:
3-70D
1-70S
3-71D
4-72D
1-72
4-73
1-73S
2-74
1-74D
1-75
2-75D
1-76
1-76D
3-77
3-77D
2-78
4-78D
3-79
3-79D
I guess I better check out those 80's and 90's you are talking about CK - any specific dates?
not increase substantially so in nice attractice XF and AU there will not be large numbers
of better coins. Indeed, some of these were not very well made so an attractive AU might
well be among the nicest quarter million coins in existence for the date. Pretty much the same
applies to the '86 issues and any of the low mint set production years. Saving of rolls fell
back down to historical levels but the mint sets were few enough in number that there will
be pressure on circulated coins if very many people become interested in these coins. All
of the pre '92 mint sets have been profitable to cut up at some point in time and some have
been getting cut for years in large number. While a coin like an '86-P will have enough of a
market that they won't be spent when cut from a set, an '87 or '85 might well be put into cir-
culation. AU's and nice XF's of some of these may also see substantial demand.
This is not to say that all collectors or any collectors should be scouring pocket change look-
ing for coins to save for future profit. What it really says is that if you find these coins to be
of interest then there are some surprisingly desirable coins available and that meaningful sets
of them can be assembled from pocket change. The '82 varieties were not recognized very
early and it seems improbable many of these were intentionally set aside and the scarcer ones
wouldn't have been set aside even unintentionally.
There are some great coins of all denominations in change which simply are not available else-
where. Ironically some of these were very scarce when they were issued and virtually the en-
tire surviving mintage is in circulation. These are becoming scarcer every day as the coins become
lost and destroyed. This is known simply because there are dozens of modern scarcities which
are known in only very small quantities yet modern dies usually strike at least 100,000 coins.
Coins of which only a few dozen are known are probably quite "common" still in circulation.
If demand does continue growing over the next five years there will be an impact on the coins
in circulation which is out of proportion to the amount of this growth.
What's up with the 68 nickel you were speaking of?
Pam
I'd be interesting to see what is circulating 5-6 years from now. Exciting times are ahead in US coinage.
"Bongo hurtles along the rain soaked highway of life on underinflated bald retread tires."
~Wayne
ttt
<< <i>
What's up with the 68 nickel you were speaking of?
Pam >>
The '68-S nickel is one of the lowest production pieces of the era. It had a mintage
101 milion for circulation. It was released only on the west coast and western US,
and is a bell weather of sorts for modern ('65-'98) nickels. The issue was heavily
saved by modern standards because it had the S mint mark for the first time in many
years. It was also in the heavily produced mint set. Over the years the mint sets
have been busted up and many of the rolls have been checked for varieties and gems
and spent.
Today the '68-S nickel is widely dispersed by time and is not especially more difficult
to find in New York than in San Francisco. These coins were very poorly made from
mostly bad dies made from bad hubs. This spreading out of the supply of regular pro-
duction coins, formerly mint set coins, and formerly roll coins dilutes the numbers that
can be found and the original quality lessens the chances of today's collectors being
able to find choice specimens. While VF's can be found with some degree of regularity
in circulation because of the lower velocity of small denominations, these coins have a
high probability of being unattractive. This is even more true than mere chance would
dictate because some of these higher grade coins are rejects from rolls and sets from
the last several years.
It's very instructive that despite the difficulty of finding attractive specimens of this
date in any grade, that the nicest mint set coins did not disappear from the sets at
a higher rate than the more typical examples. Like most of the post '64 coinage, there
simply wasn't much interest in the coins.
One has to look through nearly a thousand coins to find his date at all. After a few years
of collectors selectively removing it from circulation it will get much more difficult.
through about 30 rolls to find one
Sounds like I need to hang onto my PCGS 66 toned one.