<< <i>When this "recession" gets real ugly down the road a bit, it will be interesting to see what holds up better, classics or moderns. Who will bail out first when the mortgage is due on an advancing ARM. Will those DCAM SMS Jeff's hit the market first or an MS64 seated half? It will be interesting to see how this turns out. Both are about $900. You know how my vote is cast.
Most people aren't buying moderns because they expect profits or because they think they'll weather economic storms better than classics. They are buying them because they are fun to collect. It seems modern collectors also tend to be a little more optimistic about the future than many others. Perhaps this is the nature of the beast; one simply won't bother to save coins for posterity if he is pessimistic. One is less likely to bash other people's collecting interests if he is hoping for the best or expects things will even- tually improve. This is not intended as a slam. I have great respect for Roadrunner's posts and opinions and MrEarlyGold obviously has great knowledge about his area. It is merely an observation which seems to hold in many cases.
Perhaps, though, it is this same phenomenon which will make moderns more stable in the event of a downturn in the market. Modern collectors will expect things to improve and see it as an opportunity to work collections cheaply while some others may believe it's the other shoe falling and seek to get out at any price.
Thought you guys might enjoy looking back a few years at a similar discussion. I have no doubt someday the market will move down. It has always cycled. If you read that thread, I like Dog's answer best. I don't think collectors care too much what the market does, and I think investors would do well to stay in the mainstream and buy coins that have done well historically if they're risk averse. Everybody has some risk. Shipwreck gold, a precipitous drop in bullion prices, a wallstreet boom, etc, etc. If the modern market ever does collapse (it's been collapsing since I joined the boards in 01) the collectors will stay, the investors will flee (both camps). JMO
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Cladking, I think the advancing prices in the modern market certainly contribute to the desire to collect them. If they were dropping in price week to week would the result be the same? Of course not. We don't like to collect things that lose money all the time. Holding value is one thing, losing value is a whole different animal. Newbie "collectors" and even the seasoned veterans don't like to see their $900 coins drop to $800 and then $600, etc. The human condition is strongly attached to "losing." We hate losing and love winning. It's why gamblers will play because they have a 1 in 10 chance of winning. They don't ever consider the losing side until all the money is gone. We'll have to see how many seasoned collectors who don't care about prices when $900 coins fall 20%. If the speculators holding those $900 coins (just like in houses, there are lots of speculators parking money there) all dump at once, it will affect the psyche of the collector holding one of those ex-$900 coins.
Mr Cladking, I hope you don't think I slam moderns as I don't and appreciate your interests as I appreciate the compliment to me.
And hey, I buy them too sometimes "for fun". I'm a coin person so I like all coins.
However, long ago when the earth was flat ( seemed that way at the time ) and after leaving the "firm" in Dallas, I had concluded after being in the great bulls of the late 70's and late 80's that in order to protect MY assets and future in this business, I had to align myself as much as possible with people who by and large would be the best insulated against economic downturns.
That quest had helped solidify my own evolution in Numismatics whereas I started specializing in the type of material these deeper pocketed individuals would be more prone to buy and sell more intelligently and not be rushing to the door if and when an economic downturn happened as they are inevitable.
Hence, the coins and aquisition plans that most consider more substantive. Early, rare and and collector driven specialties, of higher quality and the type of coins which are by and large not subject to some phoney promotion which ends sometimes as quickly as they start.
Real tough to develop both ends of this journey for sure. But after so many years, the philosophy has proved correct.
All I can say about what you're talking about is that if you truly believe in what you say, then I hope you will have many years of continued fun in those areas.
<< <i>Thought you guys might enjoy looking back a few years at a similar discussion. I have no doubt someday the market will move down. It has always cycled. If you read that thread, I like Dog's answer best. I don't think collectors care too much what the market does, and I think investors would do well to stay in the mainstream and buy coins that have done well historically if they're risk averse. Everybody has some risk. Shipwreck gold, a precipitous drop in bullion prices, a wallstreet boom, etc, etc. If the modern market ever does collapse (it's been collapsing since I joined the boards in 01) the collectors will stay, the investors will flee (both camps). JMO >>
I was going to ttt that thread once since it was so well done, but didn't because another thread like it to set it up turned ugly. It is a pretty good thread with some well thought out points amid a minimum of bashing.
Baley, I gotta ask this. An 84-S Morgan in PCGS 63 is listed in the C/U price guide at $30,000. In PCGS 64, it's listed at $135,000. Do you believe the collector who makes that leap in pursuit of quality is more manic than the collector who pays $900 for a nice Jeff? Perhaps a more common coin, say a 25-S Peace that moves from $600 in a 64 holder to $22,000 in a 65 holder?
Developing theory is what we are meant to do as academic researchers and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
I picked up a couple of nice sets this last weekend that I like the Lincolns. Not sure where they sit completely, in the scheme of grading, but I liked the look.
Baley, I gotta ask this. An 84-S Morgan in PCGS 63 is listed in the C/U price guide at $30,000. In PCGS 64, it's listed at $135,000. Do you believe the collector who makes that leap in persuit of quality is more manic than the collector who pays $900 for a nice Jeff? Perhaps a more common coin, say a 25-S Peace that moves from $600 in a 64 holder to $22,000 in a 65 holder?
I don't know who's more manic in the above list, I think they're all crazy for paying those "point up" prices.
My 1884S morgan is EF, my Jeffersons from change (I bought a few low grade MS coins to fill holes in my album that werent in circulation), but I actually have two 1925-S peace dollars (I like peace dollars but don't care much for morgans or jeffersons), both my 25s peaces are tpg graded MS 63 (I think that's the value grade for that date, if the coin is pq) one coin is toned and one white and they were less than $150 each, so I obviously don't collect at the level of condition you're talking about, not having that kind of "crazy" money to spend, for condition census type of coins, in any series.
<< <i>When this "recession" gets real ugly down the road a bit, it will be interesting to see what holds up better, classics or moderns. Who will bail out first when the mortgage is due on an advancing ARM. Will those DCAM SMS Jeff's hit the market first or an MS64 seated half? It will be interesting to see how this turns out. Both are about $900. You know how my vote is cast. >>
Actually I got hit by the recession 2 1/2 years ago. At the time I was collecting proof Morgan dollars, Lincolns, and proof Lincolns and Kennedy Halves. When I came time that I realized I had to sell, it all went. I emptied out 2 band boxes and sent coins to the auction houses! A paid off house and cars was far more important than a collection of coins! It didn't make a difference if they were moderns or classics, when it came time to sell....
It is not exactly cheating, I prefer to consider it creative problem solving!!!
<< <i>When this "recession" gets real ugly down the road a bit, it will be interesting to see what holds up better, classics or moderns. >>
What will be also very interesting is how market grading reacts to weakening coin prices and how the hypergraded coins (both modern and classic) are handled. Will a currently graded "MS-68" remain a "68" . . . ? How will it be "graded" when it is resold when market grading has softened?
Lane
Numismatist Ordinaire See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
<< <i>people don't bash moderns because they hate them per se
it's just that we've seen manias before, and seen how they end.
but "this time it's different", right clad? >>
Much of the hobby is spewing venom at moderns and claiming it's not a dislike but an attempt to help the misguided who are buying this material. Yet in every previous bubble in the last 50 years everyone was far too busy to even notice that bulbs were getting pricier than tulips. When I'd point out to them that the market was apparently created from thin air they'd tell me that I didn't understand. This time there are some huge differences. This time everyone is say- ing the market was created out of thin air. This time almost no one is buying. And this time the tulips are going through the roof while the bulbs rot in the gardens.
<< <i>When this "recession" gets real ugly down the road a bit, it will be interesting to see what holds up better, classics or moderns. >>
What will be also very interesting is how market grading reacts to weakening coin prices and how the hypergraded coins (both modern and classic) are handled. Will a currently graded "MS-68" remain a "68" . . . ? How will it be "graded" when it is resold when market grading has softened?
Lane >>
I have no idea.
But I do know that just as a rare date will always be a rare date that a rare grade will always be a rare grade. Though of course this doesn't mean that one can de- termine rare grades for all coins by merely looking at a pop report any more than one can count undiscovered varieties by looking at a pop report.
<< <i>also, try breaking those two coins out of their plastic and then try getting 750.00 each for them, or even 1/10th of that, high grade certified modern coins are proof positive there's a sucker born every minute, and two russ's to take em >>
Some have poor comprehension skills, though - they cost me $18. I'll take them by the truckload at this kind of profit.
<< <i>Were those ebay or local? >>
Bochiman,
A dealer listed a set on eBay that had a cameo half, so I contacted him to see if he had any more sets. He had seven total and sent me images of them. I bought them all rather than try and just cherrypick the sets that had the cameos.
<< <i>(I think that's the value grade for that date, if the coin is pq) >>
That's an important point. What IS the "value" grade? I've never heard it put that way. I fiind those are the best places to buy in any particular series or date.
I think another difference between the 84-S Morgan example and a late-date Jefferson is the grade itself. I mean, MOST people would think an MS66 or 65 is good enough where I suppose you could argue that the difference in "quality" in a 63 to 64 might be worth the jump. Whereas a huge increase in price between a 67 and 68, especially when you really can't tell the difference, is a bit excessive.
<< <i>(I think that's the value grade for that date, if the coin is pq) >>
That's an important point. What IS the "value" grade? I've never heard it put that way. I fiind those are the best places to buy in any particular series or date.
I think another difference between the 84-S Morgan example and a late-date Jefferson is the grade itself. I mean, MOST people would think an MS66 or 65 is good enough where I suppose you could argue that the difference in "quality" in a 63 to 64 might be worth the jump. Whereas a huge increase in price between a 67 and 68, especially when you really can't tell the difference, is a bit excessive.
jom >>
Your point would be more convincing if you didn't use Jeffersons as an example. Some of these are virtually impossible to find in well struck gem and can even be difficult in very choice BU. The '68-S for example is normally something of a fright in unc. While there not be a huge increase in grade from a "value grade" to the next higher grade, there can be a huge difference in availability. There can also be more improvements in grade before you get to the pop top, so the difference in condition from the "value grade" to the pop top can be huge.
Comments
<< <i>When this "recession" gets real ugly down the road a bit, it will be interesting to see what holds up better, classics or moderns. Who will bail out first when the mortgage is due on an advancing ARM.
Will those DCAM SMS Jeff's hit the market first or an MS64 seated half? It will be interesting to see how this turns out. Both are about $900. You know how my vote is cast.
roadrunner >>
Mine too and
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
they'll weather economic storms better than classics. They are buying them because
they are fun to collect. It seems modern collectors also tend to be a little more optimistic
about the future than many others. Perhaps this is the nature of the beast; one simply
won't bother to save coins for posterity if he is pessimistic. One is less likely to bash
other people's collecting interests if he is hoping for the best or expects things will even-
tually improve. This is not intended as a slam. I have great respect for Roadrunner's posts
and opinions and MrEarlyGold obviously has great knowledge about his area. It is merely
an observation which seems to hold in many cases.
Perhaps, though, it is this same phenomenon which will make moderns more stable in the
event of a downturn in the market. Modern collectors will expect things to improve and
see it as an opportunity to work collections cheaply while some others may believe it's
the other shoe falling and seek to get out at any price.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
We don't like to collect things that lose money all the time. Holding value is one thing, losing value is a whole different animal.
Newbie "collectors" and even the seasoned veterans don't like to see their $900 coins drop to $800 and then $600, etc. The human condition is strongly attached to "losing." We hate losing and love winning. It's why gamblers will play because they have a 1 in 10 chance of winning. They don't ever consider the losing side until all the money is gone. We'll have to see how many seasoned collectors who don't care about prices when $900 coins fall 20%. If the speculators holding those $900 coins (just like in houses, there are lots of speculators parking money there) all dump at once, it will affect the psyche of the collector holding one of those ex-$900 coins.
roadrunner
And hey, I buy them too sometimes "for fun". I'm a coin person so I like all coins.
However, long ago when the earth was flat ( seemed that way at the time
That quest had helped solidify my own evolution in Numismatics whereas I started specializing in the type of material these deeper pocketed individuals would be more prone to buy and sell more intelligently and not be rushing to the door if and when an economic downturn happened as they are inevitable.
Hence, the coins and aquisition plans that most consider more substantive. Early, rare and and collector driven specialties, of higher quality and the type of coins which are by and large not subject to some phoney promotion which ends sometimes as quickly as they start.
Real tough to develop both ends of this journey for sure. But after so many years, the philosophy has proved correct.
All I can say about what you're talking about is that if you truly believe in what you say, then I hope you will have many years of continued fun in those areas.
Rgrds
Tom
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
<< <i>Thought you guys might enjoy looking back a few years at a similar discussion. I have no doubt someday the market will move down. It has always cycled. If you read that thread, I like Dog's answer best. I don't think collectors care too much what the market does, and I think investors would do well to stay in the mainstream and buy coins that have done well historically if they're risk averse. Everybody has some risk. Shipwreck gold, a precipitous drop in bullion prices, a wallstreet boom, etc, etc. If the modern market ever does collapse (it's been collapsing since I joined the boards in 01) the collectors will stay, the investors will flee (both camps). JMO >>
I was going to ttt that thread once since it was so well done, but didn't because
another thread like it to set it up turned ugly. It is a pretty good thread with some
well thought out points amid a minimum of bashing.
it's just that we've seen manias before, and seen how they end.
but "this time it's different", right clad?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Congrats.
Were those ebay or local?
I picked up a couple of nice sets this last weekend that I like the Lincolns. Not sure where they sit completely, in the scheme of grading, but I liked the look.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
I don't know who's more manic in the above list, I think they're all crazy for paying those "point up" prices.
My 1884S morgan is EF, my Jeffersons from change (I bought a few low grade MS coins to fill holes in my album that werent in circulation), but I actually have two 1925-S peace dollars (I like peace dollars but don't care much for morgans or jeffersons), both my 25s peaces are tpg graded MS 63 (I think that's the value grade for that date, if the coin is pq) one coin is toned and one white and they were less than $150 each, so I obviously don't collect at the level of condition you're talking about, not having that kind of "crazy" money to spend, for condition census type of coins, in any series.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i><< Value: $900 each. >>
If you have a buyer! >>
One was sold before they even got back, and he got it cheap at $750.
Russ, NCNE >>
NICE!
Great transactions with oih82w8, JasonGaming, Moose1913.
<< <i>When this "recession" gets real ugly down the road a bit, it will be interesting to see what holds up better, classics or moderns. Who will bail out first when the mortgage is due on an advancing ARM.
Will those DCAM SMS Jeff's hit the market first or an MS64 seated half? It will be interesting to see how this turns out. Both are about $900. You know how my vote is cast.
>>
Actually I got hit by the recession 2 1/2 years ago. At the time I was collecting proof Morgan dollars, Lincolns, and proof Lincolns and Kennedy Halves. When I came time that I realized I had to sell, it all went. I emptied out 2 band boxes and sent coins to the auction houses! A paid off house and cars was far more important than a collection of coins! It didn't make a difference if they were moderns or classics, when it came time to sell....
<< <i>When this "recession" gets real ugly down the road a bit, it will be interesting to see what holds up better, classics or moderns. >>
What will be also very interesting is how market grading reacts to weakening coin prices and how the hypergraded coins (both modern and classic) are handled. Will a currently graded "MS-68" remain a "68" . . . ? How will it be "graded" when it is resold when market grading has softened?
Lane
See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
<< <i>people don't bash moderns because they hate them per se
it's just that we've seen manias before, and seen how they end.
but "this time it's different", right clad? >>
Much of the hobby is spewing venom at moderns and claiming it's not a dislike but an attempt
to help the misguided who are buying this material. Yet in every previous bubble in the last
50 years everyone was far too busy to even notice that bulbs were getting pricier than tulips.
When I'd point out to them that the market was apparently created from thin air they'd tell me
that I didn't understand. This time there are some huge differences. This time everyone is say-
ing the market was created out of thin air. This time almost no one is buying. And this time the
tulips are going through the roof while the bulbs rot in the gardens.
Damn straight this time it's different.
<< <i>
<< <i>When this "recession" gets real ugly down the road a bit, it will be interesting to see what holds up better, classics or moderns. >>
What will be also very interesting is how market grading reacts to weakening coin prices and how the hypergraded coins (both modern and classic) are handled. Will a currently graded "MS-68" remain a "68" . . . ? How will it be "graded" when it is resold when market grading has softened?
Lane >>
I have no idea.
But I do know that just as a rare date will always be a rare date that a rare grade
will always be a rare grade. Though of course this doesn't mean that one can de-
termine rare grades for all coins by merely looking at a pop report any more than one
can count undiscovered varieties by looking at a pop report.
<< <i>also, try breaking those two coins out of their plastic and then try getting 750.00 each for them, or even 1/10th of that, high grade certified modern coins are proof positive there's a sucker born every minute, and two russ's to take em >>
Some have poor comprehension skills, though - they cost me $18. I'll take them by the truckload at this kind of profit.
<< <i>Were those ebay or local? >>
Bochiman,
A dealer listed a set on eBay that had a cameo half, so I contacted him to see if he had any more sets. He had seven total and sent me images of them. I bought them all rather than try and just cherrypick the sets that had the cameos.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>(I think that's the value grade for that date, if the coin is pq) >>
That's an important point. What IS the "value" grade? I've never heard it put that way. I fiind those are the best places to buy in any particular series or date.
I think another difference between the 84-S Morgan example and a late-date Jefferson is the grade itself. I mean, MOST people would think an MS66 or 65 is good enough where I suppose you could argue that the difference in "quality" in a 63 to 64 might be worth the jump. Whereas a huge increase in price between a 67 and 68, especially when you really can't tell the difference, is a bit excessive.
jom
<< <i>
<< <i>(I think that's the value grade for that date, if the coin is pq) >>
That's an important point. What IS the "value" grade? I've never heard it put that way. I fiind those are the best places to buy in any particular series or date.
I think another difference between the 84-S Morgan example and a late-date Jefferson is the grade itself. I mean, MOST people would think an MS66 or 65 is good enough where I suppose you could argue that the difference in "quality" in a 63 to 64 might be worth the jump. Whereas a huge increase in price between a 67 and 68, especially when you really can't tell the difference, is a bit excessive.
jom >>
Your point would be more convincing if you didn't use Jeffersons as an example.
Some of these are virtually impossible to find in well struck gem and can even be
difficult in very choice BU. The '68-S for example is normally something of a fright
in unc. While there not be a huge increase in grade from a "value grade" to the
next higher grade, there can be a huge difference in availability. There can also
be more improvements in grade before you get to the pop top, so the difference
in condition from the "value grade" to the pop top can be huge.