MODERN COMMEMS ARE COOL COINS AND APPEAR TO SHOW THAT NOT ALL MODERN PRICES DROP AS POPS RISE

wondercoin

I came across some research yesterday I thought was interesting. We read countless threads on this modern coin and that modern coin that drops in price as the pops rise (and there are many of those). But, my research on Modern Commems shows me that in many instances prices on PCGS-MS70 coins have steady risen over the past 5 years even as pops have risen as well. There are many examples I could list, but for today consider a quick study of the historic 1995 "Civil War" Modern Commem Half Dollars & Dollar coins.

REPORTED PUBLIC SALES PRICES OF PCGS-MS70 1995(s) CIVIL WAR HALF DOLLAR COMMEM (as pulled from Teletrade):

2/15/99: $95 (plus buyers fee)
7/11/01: $600 (plus buyers fee)
1/28/04: $1,000 (plus buyers fee)

REPORTED PUBLIC SALES PRICES OF PCGS-MS70 1995(s) CIVIL WAR DOLLAR COMMEM (as pulled from Teletrade)

3/10/99: $160 (plus buyers fee)
3/15/99: $140 (plus buyers fee)
3/17/99: $140 (plus buyers fee)
4/21/99: $160 (plus buyers fee)
4/28/99: $120 (plus buyers fee)
5/09/99: $170 (plus buyers fee)
2/27/00: $450 (plus buyers fee)
5/31/00: $320 (plus buyers fee)
7/04/01: $750 (plus buyers fee)
7/11/01: $600 (plus buyers fee)
9/30/02: $2,250 (plus buyers fee) (perhaps a mistake?)
12/4/02: $850 (plus buyers fee)
1/28/04: $700 (plus buyers fee)

Obviously, pops rose throughout the years, but coins have shown, overall, a steady rise in price at public auction as well. A search of the modern Columbus Half Dollar Commem as well as many others appear to reveal similar charts.

I thought this was interesting and wanted to share it with the members. I also am actively collecting MS Half Dollar, Dollar & $5 Gold Commems (have registry sets going of all 3 coins) as well as selling these coins as well. But, they represent a tiny portion of my personal coin collection and a small portion of my annual coin sales.

Overall, it appears to me that modern PCGS-MS70 Commems have done very well for the collectors who started buying them 5 years ago (which, unfortunately, I was not doing myself). Perhaps fellow board members who have collected them for years can give their opinions on the series.

Wondercoin

orie

Dollar type collector. I started collecting modern dollar commems about 12 years ago for the action. My coin friends were saying I was a nut, it's junk.
Out of 19 MS70's, I submitted 13. 34 have the green labels.
It has been fun and profitable. Most important to me is not having two coins with the same design. My dollars before 1928 are F, VF and EF, semi-key. I like the history behind used coins.
Eight years ago I stewed over paying $150 for a MS70. Now I'm trying to buy the same commems for $300 to $2,000.

tradedollarnut

You don't have to shout.

flaminio

<< <i>Obviously, pops rose throughout the years, but coins have shown, overall, a steady rise in price at public auction as well. A search of the modern Columbus Half Dollar Commem as well as many others appear to reveal similar charts. >>

Try searching on 1982-D Washington Half Dollars in PCGS MS69 and see what you come up with. I'll give you the endpoints as a starter: the first one to show up on Teletrade sold for $5000. Last week, one sold on eBay for just over $400.

wondercoin

Flaminio: The 82(d) half was covered recently on another thread. That is a coin that has -0- MS70 coins to date. If one was ever graded, I suspect it would be a monumental coin to the modern commem collectors. High end MS69 examples are very scarce to say the least (repeat - "high end" MS69's).

As far as MS69 Commem Half Dollars (which I do not generally collect, but am forced to fill the GW 82(d) slot with an MS69 as that is as good as it gets in that particular case), understand that, IMHO, the $5,000 purchase price you refer to is as much an aberration as the $2,250 Civil War Dollar price listed below. Assuming a collector bought the GW half for $5,000 and/or the Civil War Dollar for $2,250- so be it. BUT, when the pop was single digits on the GW Half in MS69 many years ago, I bought (3) coins from a seasoned dealer for a price level that was a tiny, tiny fraction of the $5,000. I kept (2) and sold (1). I am still happy with my buy even today. Indeed, less than (60) days after that reported Teletrade price of $5,000 (back in 2001 I believe), the coin resold at $1,450!

In any event, it is good to review the myriad of grades - I tend to agree with you that MS69's have performed poorly, best I can tell (again, I do not collect them and never have). But, some of the MS70's appear to have fared much better over the 5 year timeline.

Wondercoin

Nysoto

Wondercoin,

Based on your analysis, would you recommend a PCGS MS70 Civil War Half at $1000 hammer to be a prudent acquisition?

wondercoin

Nysoto: I didn't "recommend" it at $90!!

I do not "recommend" any coins - classic or modern.

Wondercoin

flaminio

<< <i>Flaminio: The 82(d) half was covered recently on another thread. That is a coin that has -0- MS70 coins to date. If one was ever graded, I suspect it would be a monumental coin to the modern commem collectors. High end MS69 examples are very scarce to say the least (repeat - "high end" MS69's). >>

What's a high end 69? 69½ ?

Since there are no MS70 82-Ds, I think the 69s would fill a similar price niche. It's not really the number 70 that's magic; it's the fact that there are none finer (numerically speaking). Looking at the Teletrade sales:

05 Nov 2001: $5000
02 Jan 2002: $1450
01 Jul 2002: $1300
22 Jul 2002: $1350
30 Dec 2002: $875
07 Jul 2003: $850
23 Jul 2003: $700
30 Jun 2004: $475
23 Jul 2004: $406 (eBay)

While the initial $5000 might have been an aberration, it's clear that prices for this commem have not held up over the years. And actually, I don't think the $5000 was an aberration -- this was one of the first MS69s of this issue to come to market. A pop 1 coin can be expected to sell for a great deal more than a pop 82 coin.

I'm not disputing your point per se -- you did claim prices increased in "many instances". I'm just saying that in "some instances", prices did not increase; and indeed, decreased dramatically. Like any "investment", one really need to do their homework before plunking down the cash.

RegistryCoin

To truly understand the 69s, I feel one must become intimately aware of the 69 scale. It is rather large. I'm not sure, in your example, if a 69.5 would even cut it. I would prefer a 69.9, and be willing to pay for the difference of .4 of a point, but finding one is not as simple as one may assume. One cannot easily find one on TT or in any other auction house, imho.

wondercoin

All good discussion. And, I agree that the MS70 market on these Commems is not the MS69 market and vice versa. Just as I believe top pop classic Commem coins have generally fared far better than the 1 or 2 grade under coins over the past five years. And Registrycoin is certainly 100% correct in his comment concerning high end MS69 coins. They are very hard to locate.

If I have time later today, I will post the "chart" on yet another MS70 Commem half Dollar and Dollar over the past 5 years to discuss. Then, faminio can post the MS69 chart on one which may show a far different story. My cursory research does suggest the MS70 modern Commem market over the past 5 years may have performed far better than any other grades - again, similar to the classic Commem top pops and other classic series.

I would still like to hear from additional board members who have actually been collecting this series for the past 3-5 years as well. I basically started my 3 MS sets at the beginning of this year.

Wondercoin

ziggy29

<< <i>To truly understand the 69s, I feel one must become intimately aware of the 69 scale. It is rather large. >>

I still have trouble believing that many people can regularly distinguish between 67 and 68 or 68 and 69, let alone "69-point-something" grades. Maybe some can, and if they want to pay thousands more for a 69.62 than for a 69.31, more power to them. I can't, and wouldn't. To each their own, of course.

RegistryCoin

Even the grading services, chock full of experts can't determine the difference of a gem between 60-something and one grade above and below, more times than not, so no biggie. But, there are some who can determine differences, and upon re-sale, it is "key", because the buyers of these coins are very astute.

flaminio

<< <i>I still have trouble believing that many people can regularly distinguish between 67 and 68 or 68 and 69, let alone "69-point-something" grades. >>

I'm not sure I'd go so far as to assign point-something grades, but if presented with two 69s side-by-side, I could certainly tell you which one was better than the other one. Or if presented with ten 69s, order them from best to worst. If that means that the best is a 69.9 and the worst is a 69.0, well, there ya' go.

RegistryCoin

Glad to hear it. Personally, I find the differences between the 69.5 and the 69.9 quite difficult to determine, but have ultimate trust in a small number, who have a much better "eye" than I.

majorbigtime

<< <i>
Obviously, pops rose throughout the years, >>



While I don't get excited about modern anything or the super grade craze, I would hazard a guess that there are many "top pop" type modern commems and proofs in original mint packaging that are in hands of collectors or hoarders. and have never been examined for "super grades". Heck, the modern mint products are almost always "cameo" and of very high quality, so an "average" coin probably would be in the 66-69 range.

Maybe the real rarity would be the coin in original unmolested mint packaging that only grades 63!!!

RegistryCoin

An interesting thought, but I feel that hoarders, those who buy to slab, have stripped their supply, and the rest, in the hands of individuals, usually bought by the Gramps, and given to the grandkids, may have limited the supply. The demand may someday, if not already, be above the supply.

majorbigtime

<< <i>An interesting thought, but I feel that hoarders, those who buy to slab, have stripped their supply, and the rest, in the hands of individuals, usually bought by the Gramps, and given to the grandkids, may have limited the supply. . >>



I would hazard a guess that many who, like me, bought derectly from the mint would never think about slabbing these moderns. Heck, they come directly from the mint already entombed in plastic!!

cladking

<< <i>

<< <i>
Obviously, pops rose throughout the years, >>



While I don't get excited about modern anything or the super grade craze, I would hazard a guess that there are many "top pop" type modern commems and proofs in original mint packaging that are in hands of collectors or hoarders. and have never been examined for "super grades". Heck, the modern mint products are almost always "cameo" and of very high quality, so an "average" coin probably would be in the 66-69 range.

Maybe the real rarity would be the coin in original unmolested mint packaging that only grades 63!!! >>



It depends on the issue. While this may well be true for many of the commems, it is
not true for them all and it is not at all true for mint state coins. Indeed, many regu-
lar issues and most varieties don't appear in mint packaging at all.

Even those issues which are well made frequently are elusive in the highest grades.
While substantial percentages of some issues still reside unmolested in mint packaging
this, too, is not true for all issues. Many of these were made in pretty small numbers
so the small percentage which are nearly perfectly made translates into very small to-
tal numbers.

It is wise to have a good understanding of the coins one is seeking especially if they
are pop tops. Because as you say, just being high grade does not make modern
commems rare.

RegistryCoin

Any coins to remain in Mint Plastic make my point. These are coins that will perhaps never make it to the pop charts.

wondercoin

In my travels today, I came across another very interesting Modern Silver Dollar Commem - The 1996(d) HIGH JUMP. This is a modern Silver Dollar Commem produced in connection with the 1996 Atlanta Olympics with a mintage of less than 17,000 coins!! I suspect a fair share of these coins might be scattered all over the world as tourists to the Olympic games may have purchased coins as well. Obviously, this is a coin with a mintage every bit as scarce as many classic Silver Commems as well.

The last (3) reported sales of this coin (at Teletrade) in PCGS-MS70 were as follows:

1. 3/30/98 - $250
2. 5/18/98 - $280
3. 5/20/98 - $230

The coin has not made another auction appearance at Teletrade in more than (6) years!

Interestingly, back in 1999, Grey Sheet ask on a raw High Jump Dollar coin was a mere $34!! Today, a PCGS-MS69 coin routinely trades for high $200's++. So, the MS69 price appears to have seen a 500% - 600% rise over the past 5 years despite rising pops, while the PCGS-MS70 price would, IMHO, likely see even a larger rise off those 1998 sale prices if a coin was ever auctioned off publicly.

Just a small % of my business is in connection with selling these MS-70 Dollar Commems and I sell virtually no MS69 coins either (I simply can't get enough MS70 Dollar Commem coins in to make it a larger % of my business). I mention this coin simply to point out that there are, IMHO, many "sleeper" moderns out there (some which have done incredibly well over the past 5 or 6 years). A collector who choses to "do him homework" may be surprised at how much fun he may have pursuing "special" low mintage modern coins such as the 1995-1996 Atlanta games coins. There are many cool moderns out there to be sure!!

Wondercoin

RegistryCoin

Announcing "no brainers" now? You are way too generous.
(BTW, sign me up for the next 70. I'd like to watch how high it jumps)

wondercoin

"Announcing "no brainers" now? You are way too generous."

Steve: You have actually hit the nail on the head.

Rarely, are coins such as the High Jump discussed on the Coin Forum. Why would it make any sense to do so? The collectors who have done their homework are very content to say nothing and "cherry pick" wherever possible. Why bring attention to super neat coins like these? I suspect this thread will die quickly as those "in the know" will want it to and those who don't follow the modern Dollar series will not have a great deal to comment on anyway.

But, I just thought it would be educational to mention a few neat moderns, as it seldom occurs on this forum.

Wondercoin

P.S. Steve - I'll let you know if I get another High Jump in. I have only handled -1- coin ever (this year), which inadvertently got listed on my website. That coin will go into my registry set later today, which I hope will break into the "top 10 sets" by next week.