MODERN COMMEMS ARE COOL COINS - AND APPEAR TO SHOW NOT ALL MODERNS DROP IN PRICE WITH RISING POPS!

wondercoin · July 28, 2004 2:42PM

There have been some recent threads here on Modern Commems and I came across some research tonight I thought was interesting. We read countless threads on this modern coin and that modern coin that drops in price as the pops rise. But, my research on Modern Commems shows me that in many instances prices on PCGS-MS70 coins have steady risen over the past 5 years even as pops have risen as well. There are many examples I could list, but for tonight consider a quick study of the historic 1995 "Civil War" Modern Commem Half Dollars & Dollar coins.

REPORTED PUBLIC SALES PRICES OF PCGS-MS70 1995(s) CIVIL WAR HALF DOLLAR COMMEM (as pulled from Teletrade):

2/15/99: $95 (plus buyers fee)
7/11/01: $600 (plus buyers fee)
1/28/04: $1,000 (plus buyers fee)

REPORTED PUBLIC SALES PRICES OF PCGS-MS70 1995(s) CIVIL WAR DOLLAR COMMEM (as pulled from Teletrade)

3/10/99: $160 (plus buyers fee)
3/15/99: $140 (plus buyers fee)
3/17/99: $140 (plus buyers fee)
4/21/99: $160 (plus buyers fee)
4/28/99: $120 (plus buyers fee)
5/09/99: $170 (plus buyers fee)
2/27/00: $450 (plus buyers fee)
5/31/00: $320 (plus buyers fee)
7/04/01: $750 (plus buyers fee)
7/11/01: $600 (plus buyers fee)
9/30.02: $2,250 (plus buyers fee) (perhaps a mistake?)
12/4/02: $850 (plus buyers fee)
1/28/04: $700 (plus buyers fee)

Obviously, pops rose throughout the years, but coins have shown, overall, a steady rise in price at public auction as well. A search of the Columbus Half Dollar Commem as well as many others appear to reveal similar charts.

I thought this was interesting and wanted to share it with the members. I also am actively collecting Half Dollar, Dollar & $5 Gold Commems (have registry sets going of all 3 coins) as well as selling these coins as well.

Overall, it appears to me that Modern PCGS-MS70 Commems have done very well for the collectors who started buying them 5 years ago. Perhaps fellow board members who have collected them for years can give their opinions on the series.

Wondercoin

RegistryCoin · July 28, 2004 3:00PM

Our hedge against gradeflation... shhhhhhhh.......

Steve27 · July 28, 2004 8:00PM

I would like to see the same statistics for the same coin in MS69. I suspect it would show a very different trend.

wondercoin · July 28, 2004 10:11PM

Steve27: So, I take it the MS70 stats surprised you somewhat?

I have never collected the MS69's or sold them in any of the modern commem series.

Wondercoin

tgilliams · July 29, 2004 12:36AM

mitch
isn't there some gradeflation in the 70 pop, which can explain part of the increase.

wondercoin · July 29, 2004 1:31AM

"mitch: isn't there some gradeflation in the 70 pop, which can explain part of the increase. "

I am not sure what you mean. Can you explain your idea.

Wondercoin

RegistryCoin · July 29, 2004 1:32AM

I think that one of the things that you CAN count on, is Homerun's confirmation that a teenie tiny percentage of 70s will be made. I have seen that actual percentages have been even teenier than predicted.

wondercoin · July 29, 2004 1:48AM

Steve: I have personally inspected thousands of PCGS-MS69 Half Dollar and Dollar Commems this year. I felt that to understand what it takes to make a PCGS-MS70 in these Commem series, the base point for me should be to understand what the typical MS69 looks like. Of course, the "typical MS69" is "night and day" as compared to the "typical MS70" from my personal research. There are "liner" coins in modern Commems, just like classics of course. But, what PCGS is looking for to make the "perfect" MS70 grade is a coin that is really very, very special. Take the 1986 Statute of Liberty MS Half Dollar Commem for example with a mintage in the millions and an MS69 price of less than $25 I believe. While one can find nice, high end, MS69 examples searching through a large enough sampling of MS69 coins, I have not come across a single coin that could claim the MS70 grade. The scarcity, if not rarity, of this coin in true MS70 grade, however, may not come to light for another 5-10+ years IMHO. Yes, there may be MS70's that eventually get graded, but, IMHO the Mint simply did not strike these coins "perfect" very often. Many of the MS69's are what I would consider "low end" MS69's.

Anyway, back to "work" for me.

Wondercoin

TheNumish · July 29, 2004 4:59AM

Last month I graded 4 Washington Unc $5 gold coins at PCGS. Three coins came back MS-69 and one came back MS-70. Just for fun I put stickers over the grades to see if I could pick out the MS-70. They all looked the same to me so I couldn't pick it out. Guess my grading skills need a little work.

wondercoin · July 30, 2004 9:23AM

Jay: Sounds like you got in (4) wonderful GW coins!

As I mentioned, this past year, I have carefully reviewed thousands of PCGS-MS69 Half Dollar and Dollar commems and have compared them to each other to fully grasp the range of quality in the MS69 sphere. And, to make matters worse, most of these coins I "subjected" my 12 year old son, Justin, to as well to "fine tune" his grading skills this Summer. Since we are local to PCGS, I figure by the time he reaches age 15 or 16, he can apply for a modern grader job there as well!

Anyway, IMHO, Justin is now training himself to differential the MS69 Modern Commem line to roughly 1/4 points, on his way to 1/10's of a point. At the next Long Beach show, I am sure he would be delighted to grade any forum member's MS69 Commem, raw or slabbed, for the cost of a candy bar!

Wondercoin

RegistryCoin · July 30, 2004 11:45AM

Determine the difference of a tenth of a point to perfection, then BUY the candy company... More power to Justin/toneboy!!! You couldn't find a better teacher even if you spent your entire summer in Colorado Springs.

wondercoin · July 30, 2004 11:56AM

"More power to Justin/toneboy!!!"

Toneboy is learning to appreciate "blast white" this Summer.

Wondercoin

wondercoin · August 3, 2004 1:49AM

In my travels today, I came across another very interesting Modern Silver Dollar Commem - The 1996(d) HIGH JUMP. This is a modern Silver Dollar Commem produced in connection with the 1996 Atlanta Olympics with a mintage of less than 17,000 coins!! I suspect a fair share of these coins might be scattered all over the world as tourists to the Olympic games may have purchased coins as well. Obviously, this is a coin with a mintage every bit as scarce as many classic Silver Commems as well.

The last (3) reported sales of this coin (at Teletrade) in PCGS-MS70 were as follows:

1. 3/30/98 - $250
2. 5/18/98 - $280
3. 5/20/98 - $230

The coin has not made another auction appearance at Teletrade in more than (6) years!

Interestingly, back in 1999, Grey Sheet ask on a raw High Jump Dollar coin was a mere $34!! Today, a PCGS-MS69 coin routinely trades for high $200's++. So, the MS69 price appears to have seen a 500% - 600% rise over the past 5 years despite rising pops, while the PCGS-MS70 price would, IMHO, likely see even a larger rise off those 1998 sale prices if a coin was ever auctioned off publicly.

Just a small % of my business is in connection with selling these MS-70 Dollar Commems and I sell virtually no MS69 coins either (I simply can't get enough MS70 Dollar Commem coins in to make it a larger % of my business). I mention this coin simply to point out that there are, IMHO, many "sleeper" moderns out there (some which have done incredibly well over the past 5 or 6 years). A collector who choses to "do him homework" may be surprised at how much fun he may have pursuing "special" low mintage modern coins such as the 1995-1996 Atlanta games coins. There are many cool moderns out there to be sure!!

Wondercoin

RegistryCoin · August 3, 2004 2:38AM

Rising pops on a coin of a huge mintage, is one thing, and rising pops on a coin of a slight mintage may contribute to something entirely different.

MJCoin · August 4, 2004 5:46AM

It does my heart good to finally see interest in the MS Modern Commemoratives. Since the late 80's I have been hand picking these coins for quality for my personal collection, and even though I haven't submitted any of them for grading yet, I feel like I have obtained a beautiful set of low pop coins that will surely obtain value in the coming years. I remember back in 1989 being astonished at how dealers were treating these coins. I would go to coin shows and see dealers tossing them around like bullion with no protection whatsoever. Although I know the early moderns have high mintages, there are the low pop ms commemoratives of the mid to late 90's. Mitch mentions the High Jump for example, but take the whole Atlanta Olympic series. Back in 1995 most collectors were overwhelmed with the scope of this series and gradually lost interest before the coins of 1996 were available, which spilled over to 1997-1999. Regardless of mintages I personally prefer the MS coins to the proofs. Although the proofs can be stunning coins to behold, the Unc's with their lustrous Matte finishes are in my opinion the best of them all.

RegistryCoin · August 4, 2004 5:59AM

<< <i> I personally prefer the MS coins to the proofs. >>

Great comments and well put, but the one above was "giving away the store".

MODERN COMMEMS ARE COOL COINS - AND APPEAR TO SHOW NOT ALL MODERNS DROP IN PRICE WITH RISING POPS!

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