Could someone talk about the coin "boom" of the late '80s? What was it like?
XpipedreamR
Posts: 8,059 ✭✭
I understand we've been in a strong period for coins the last few years. Is it anything like the '80s (or whenever the "boom" was)?
What kind of stuff did you experience that would shock a younger collector such as myself?
Feel free to ramble on as you please!
What kind of stuff did you experience that would shock a younger collector such as myself?
Feel free to ramble on as you please!
0
Comments
I also love to go through rolls to find coins.
BST
MySlabbedCoins
It was also during this time that I interviewed at one stock brokerage that had gotten into coins. I saw a list of their inventory and it was nearly all Accugrade. I got the job, but turned them down. It was then and there I decided that being a glorified telemarketer (stockbroker) wasn't for me.
We wanted one Gem in ms65 that was just a total blazer. Yes we were collecting white ones. Problem is we were raising a family, buying a house etc. without much money. Soooo the price for common date Walkers in ms65 ended up pushing the $400.00- $500.00 mark. We couldn't buy one and all of a sudden we saw some we liked. Shortly after the price came down and we were able to find one for $165.00. I still have this PCGS ms65 Walker to this day. They are still a good value in todays market IMO.
At the time, it was mostly PCGS and ANACS; NGC was still a toddler if not an infant. To some degree, it was like today -- people chasing the finest of the fine with unheard of prices. Never before in the history of numismatics had a somewhat trusted source stamp so many grades of uncirculated permanently to a coin. The market just flat out exploded and priced me out of much of it, being a part-time, $5-per-hour grocery bagger and shopping cart shagger at the time.
I think the boom/bust in 1989 was more exaggerated than any market action we're seeing here. We may be due for a pullback, but the market has been (for the most part) much more orderly than it was then.
My personal timeline:
1976 (Thanksgiving Day): began collecting
1977: got a choice EF 1827 Bust half from my stepmorther. Cleaned it to hell and back. (Still have it-it's retoned prettily.)
1978: got some Morgan dollars and other silver from my grandmother (coins from my great-grandmother's desk.)
1978 or 1979: got my first detector (a $20 toy that had a flashing light on top- no audio.)
1981: got my first "serious" detector (a $200 White's TR Discriminator.)
1984: graduated high school, went off to college, sold all but a few coins to buy books, dropped out of collecting.
1987: sold the White's detector, which had been gathering dust for several years.
1991: resumed collecting during my poverty-stricken first marriage in North Carolina.
1992: got my first modern detector (a $480 Garrett GTA-500 which lasted until this spring), started dabbling in inexpensive world coins.
1993: made my first noteworthy detector finds, got hardcore into that (since I still couldn't afford to buy any coins.)
1994: first marriage hit the rocks, moved to Georgia, still hardcore into detecting.
1998: started "serious" collecting of a slabbed 19th and 20th century type set.
1999: took my first "baby steps" as a dealer, discovered the Internet, started selling on eBay.
2001: briefly flirted with Registry Set collecting and joined up here.
2002: sold my Registry sets and used the money to buy showcases and stuff to become a "real" dealer, albeit on a small scale.
2003-2004: well, here we are.
I'LL TRY TO FIND THE OLD ONE WE HAVE AND SHOW SOME COMPARISONS
I recall going to the Garrett sales in NY, seeing the Brasher Doubloon sell. I wound up buying a beautiful toned bust half AU58) for something like $550. It was the cheapest coin in the auction. Loved looking at the lots though, especially those 1877 half dollar patterns.
Since there was no grading except ANACS certificates, grades were pushed to the max. MS67 was commonly used and today equates to MS65 or so. (Old MS67 equated to MS64 when PCGS first started)
I think the price run up during the late 1980's was due to unchecked sight-unseen bidding. Dealers would bid up coins they owned and over priced the market.
<< <i>oops, sorry, Ithough the original post was "Early 1980's".
I think the price run up during the late 1980's was due to unchecked sight-unseen bidding. Dealers would bid up coins they owned and over priced the market. >>
Hey Rick,everybody was doing it,even our dearly departed Elliot(r.i.p.) that you used to work with way back. He was one of the masters as it.
Yeah,it worked good for about a 2 year leapfrog effect each week.
It didnt matter what you bought hardly, by the next few weeks (some cases days,some cases-same day it was nearly a non-effort situation
where you could turn huge profits. Even smaller dealers on the teletypes and at the mid-sized to large shows were easily woopin down
ceo pay. Or, depending on what you may have bought raw and made mega hits on once slabbed even better. Even if you were working with a half mil or close to it inventory you could still bust down 15-25g a week.
BUT.....the big "Wall Street Fund" of hundreds of millions, if not into the single billions never did develope. A few firms bit a little until they figured out how bad they were getting hosed by "marketflation" and bidding manipulations.
THEN...it was a news-flash/crash (hee-hee-hee, uh....it was.....sniffle!....OVER!!!!)
By 88-89, third-party graded coins had become plentiful enough, that a good supply was available on the market. The increased liquidity they provided drew the attention of several major brokerage houses. Both Kidder-Peabody and Merrill Lynch each had coin funds in the $20 million to $50 million range (though I don't believe either was ever fully funded.)
Nonetheless, that additional capital (demand) was sufficient to push prices considerably higher. As I recall, high grade type coins and gold did particularly well during this period. (Oddly, common-date Morgans had peaked a few years prior.) There was little interest in "moderns." The ultra-high grade mania (MS-69+) did not exist yet. An MS-67 was about the top of the line. Nice MS-65+ Seated, Barber and early 20th century material was quite hot.
A few "new" players were also factors. I believe a middle eastern gentleman named Iraj was among the most memorable. Iraj attempted to make a market in several areas, and pumped additional millions into the market. Also, a west coast bank (Safra) was providing loans against coins, providing additional leverage, (or margin) to pump the market.
Why it ended so abruptly in mid-June of 1989 is still somewhat of a mystery. But when new money quit coming in, the party was over. Prices fell somewhat, but remained at reasonably decent levels for another 10 months or so. Then in April of 1990 the bottom fell out. During the last half of 1990, the sight unseen trading system broke down, and coins were tough to sell at any price. Prices bottomed in 1991-92, and remained flat for 10 years.
The current market appears to be on far more solid ground than the booms of the late 20th century, in that true collectors make up a large portion of the demand. That's not to say the present good market will last forever, but I don't see a crash of the magnitude of the 1980 or 1990 crashes on the horizon.
Director of Numismatics
PCGS
I didn't start collecting real coins until the late ninties, after my house got broke into and my casino dollar collection got stolen.
Collected world stamps as a kid, but lost interest in them after I moved back from England.
they arrived I could sell them for $2000. I bought boxes of generic MS65 Morgans for $300
a coin and sold the whole lot for $750 a coin to some fund. Of course there is the other end
of this. I was holding about $200K worth of coins when the bottom fell out. I was able to get
out of most with a small loss. My 2 worst were..... I paid $15K for an 04 L&C MS65
Gold commem and finally got out of it at $5500. I paid 10K for an 1893 MS65 Morgan and finally
sold it for $4K. After the dust had settled I had lost a few thousand dollars over the coarse of
about 14 months. The only coins I kept were my Roosies. I had just started collecting Roosies
as everything else was buy and sell. Been spooked ever since but still love those Roosies.
Onlyroosies
i came in at the tailend and got out at the peak.
Common MS65 Walkers in PCGS Holders were bid $350.00 un-seen,better dates were just nuts,41 S in 65 was bid like $3550.00.
I purchased 41P in MS67 for $2130.00 on Teletrade,didnt like it,called a dealer in LA 5 minutes after i got it and flipped it for $2250.00.
The boom was fueled by the funds mostly,Merrill-Lynch,Kidder-Peabody,i think even Superior Coin was doing a fund before McNall got his hand caught in the cookie jar.
I had waited a long time for moderns to do something and they were just starting to stir in the late '80's.
The grading services wouldn't grade the coins because there were some shenanigans going on and they
didn't want to lend their stamp of approval. For the main part there wasn't much demand anyway, but Ikes
were becoming appreciated. There were some that would sell for hundreds of dollars which was quite a bit
for clad in those days. The booming market just overshadowed them. Dealers were buying dip in five gal-
lon buckets and speculators were buying any type coin that wasn't nailed down. Morgans at the high end
and lower unc grades were also being sought and bags were still being cherried.
When the market tanked many people either left the hobby or severely curtailed their involvement and the
hobby started a slow decline. By '95 low priced material was almost impossible to move at any price and
dealers were tripping over one another to lower the prices still further. Backrooms still filled up with unwanted
coins and the only easy sells were nice attractive uncs that didn't have too much of a premium and monsters.
There was a little activity in nice key date coins but these were usually discounted also. In '95 the modern mar-
ket finally started moving and everything's been going up since. There was a little step up in demand in '98
when the states issues were planned and a larger step up in '00 when this market matured a little. Since
then we've had the huge numbers of baby boomers returning to the hobby and millions of newbies starting
collecting.
The hobby is likely to remain dynamic for more than a decade and have a stong upward bias for at least a cou-
ple more years.
A damn good period of time to forget but a period that should be remembered because of what can happen within this hobby.
I really do not think a period can happen like this now because of the firmly entrenched TPG's we have. Maybe prices will go into the dumpster but atleast your grades should be somewhat stable.
Ken
true observation. Hindsight has many mavins, but forsight is a lonley orphan.
Camelot
When we are planning for posterity, we ought to remember that virtue is not hereditary.
Thomas Paine
Now we,re back in the late 70's. I believe 1979 was the gold and silver run up. Gold hit $850 and
silver hit $50. Now we're back another 10 years and I remember being in the futures market
and watching gold go up limit ($25 at the time) day after day. My contracts were up mega bucks
and again I got stuck in the down draft. Limit down day after day and no way out. When I finally
sold my contracts I lost about $10K. It was luck and a great broker at the time why I only lost
$10K. I remember reading about a local guy that made about $50M in gold futures.
I didn't mean to pop this thread back 10 years. We could go forward to the stock market bubble
burst a few years ago and the $1M I lost there. Same story..... Made a mil, Gave it back.....
Life is good and I'm having fun....
Still.....
Onlyroosies
The market collapsed on April 18, 1980 and I saw it coming. Sold out my few (at the time) customers in January then went to coin shows with a checkbook full of money, spent it the first day, sold all the coins I bought before the end of the show and went home with even more money. I was at the Jack Tarr coin show (in San Francisco) when one of my dealer friends called me on Thursday evening from the Central States show and told that the merry-go-round was about to stop. I grabbed the brass ring and dumped my inventory on Friday before the news hit the West coast in earnest.
Mkke
Visit Our Website @ www.numisvision.com
Specializing in DMPL Dollars, MONSTER toners and other Premium Quality U.S. Coins
*** Visit Mike De Falco's NEW Coin Talk Blog! ***
SEMPER FI 2/11 1977-1981
"LAS PULGAS"
16 in MS65 and the tough S mints in MS64,sold to a dealer for 7700.00,could build it today for about 3.5 k
Now, I look at the morgan market and what's going on and it seems so much different. I saw silver play with $8 recently, noticed all the houses being built on cheap money and I see a lot of the same stars coming into alignment again so who knows. I will say that it was hot back then, it was very hot and cash talked, b.s. walked.
It is very nice to be getting back in to coin collecting and the market because now it is poetry and art and methodical patient persuit, not like it was back then but could it ever be that way again. Is the mint going to ever issue a bunch of gsa's or is silver going to ever take everybody back to the moon...
thanks for letting me tell that story
Katrina
I then lived in SoCal, and a character named Johathan was all over TV and the radio, touting sure fire investments in coins. I it was rumored that he went bust, and hung a lot of paper (bad checks) on the way out.
Somehow, I was lucky (smart?) enough to stay on the sidelines during this period. With 20-20 hindsight, I should have sold everything I owned as it could be rebought for cents on the dollar a few years later.
For years, many ads would quote the peak prices to show what a bargaing the coin was. I don't see much of this anymore.
I hope this market doesn't come to that.
The difference is that this market is fueled by collectors, the last fueled by investors (funds). The other advantage of this market is the mint's programs that are getting more and more Americans into coins. That provides breadth, which sustains bull markets of all types.
Hope it lasts forever!
Ike Specialist
Finest Toned Ike I've Ever Seen, been looking since 1986
You could get nice prices for coins right into March of 1990. I unloaded a pair of my best seated quarters for about $20,000 each.
Prices were still crazy and it seemed like the time to get out.
My mistake was thinking I was safer trading into MS64 Saints at $1000 each (they had been $1500). The saints did better than those coins would have, but they got slaughtered a bit too on the way down. I sold them out when they briefly popped back up to around $735 per coin. Shortly thereafter they flopped to around $630 and then meandererd all the way down to $400 or so over the next 5-10 years.
roadrunner
hadn't been stabbed with an ice pick.
Pick up some back issues of CDN on ebay. Especially
1979-1980. It's interesting reading.
"It's an experimental division at Ft. Benning, and
your lucky to be assigned there rather than anywhere
else, because nobody knows anything about it, which
means that you should know quickly as much about it
as anybody."
1st Cav in Vietnam
Shelby Stanton
My view of it was that it was pretty stinky becuase my opinion of it was that it was an over-blown market that was driven by investors and speculators. It did not affect me very much because my interests ran to early coins, which were not "players" in that market. Those who were collecting or fooling with the "old commemoratives" for speculation where the ones who really got burned. The prices for those coins have never recovered to the levels they held then, but they might do so in the future.
There is more breadth now and I believe and the mint is showing up with some interesting coinage. It appears that the collector base is broadening as is the investor base. It is peculiar that the market follows certain coins during certain periods. You worry about China sucking up all the resources like they are doing now with steel and other commodities. It is not unimaginable that there will come a point soon where there is exponential growth in the consumption by asian markets and you find yourself bidding against someone in Singapore on an international coin board for anything over ms 63...probably for more than a few buks. Not sure if this is good or bad, depends on how you play it.
Three things that I can offer:
1. don't spend money you dont have betting on the come
2. buy as much quality as you can with what you have to
spend
3. study and learn about the coins, the market and the people, go
to shows, read books and visit some shops.
...Onward!
I was lucky, I didn't get hurt when the bottom fell out. I decided to sell most of my brilliant proof coins at just the right time - made quite a bit. But that is when I started collecting cameos - at that time the designations were not on the holders so you could get.
I now wonder if some of the slabs I bought in this era and tucked away might grade a bit higher today!
“In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock." - Thomas Jefferson
My digital cameo album 1950-64 Cameos - take a look!
I'm guessing you don't watch the "Coin Vault"...
2 Cam-Slams!
1 Russ POTD!
Here is an ads and we did not see it today.
BUY an 1889-CC Select BU Morgan dollar for $xx,xxx.00. We guarantee it go up by xx% in three years. We will send you a quarter eagle (or a half eagle) US gold coin. If the 89-CC Morgan did not match the growth, the gold coin is yours.
The ads is in Coin World. Did you get a picture about the crazy-ness of 88-89?
Even slab coins are popular at the time. More than half (to three quarters) coins in the Long Beach shows are still raw.
<< <i>
I'm guessing you don't watch the "Coin Vault"... >>
Good guess--I can't stand to watch that absurdity. It's bad for the hobby and the market IMO!
<< <i>
One thing I remember clearly, as has been stated, were the claims of CH BU, and GEM BU, and A UNC, and CH UNC+, etc etc etc. Yet they all graded the same---about 3 points lower than their claims. CH BU were often sliders, A UNC were cleaned XF, GEM BU was a nice 62/63 coin and CH UNC+ was a B/B cleaned coin. Oh well, glad those times are over. What scares me now is the total insanity of some high grade modern prices. SOME PEOPLE ARE GOING TO GET KILLED when the reality sets in. As a Morgan collector I still have a closet fear that another "great hoard" will be found of a particular mint or year and destroy prices for a while till they get absorbed into the market. For this reason, I got into collecting higher grade Lincoln's during the 80's partly because I felt that no great hoard of these would ever be found to destabilize the market, cause who the heck would hoard high grade unc. Lincoln's ??? I think with the intro of state quarters,., and the new Jeff rev., and possible changes to the Lincoln in a few years, our hobby will stay strong for a while. >>
You sound like someone who can grade in any era.
While the statement that people could get burned in some moderns is a real consideration,
it might be pointed out that at least with modern issues the collector has a better chance of
knowing populations if he does his homework. With the Morgans it was impossible to know
how many of any date was/ is in storage or had been hoarded. Generally with most of the
moderns one can get a fairly accurate assessment of the number of coins available and the
percentage in each grade.
It is ironic that Lincolns are one of the more greatly hoarded US coins.