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Very Upsetting What I Saw At The National
A761506
Posts: 1,309 ✭✭✭
I went to the show on Thursday, it was the first larger convention I've been to a quite some time. I spent the entire day there talking to people/dealers, watching people and attempting to buy cards... but alas, there didn't seem to be much buying going on, at least, not by patrons. Dealers were all chomping at the bit to buy up vintage cards at 25-40% of their value. But the cards being sold by dealers... a lot of people think their sh!t doesn't stink. I could not believe the prices they had on these cards, and it only took me a few minutes to see why not much business was being done... the large majority of these dealers are attempting to operate in a market that no longer exists. The retail market for vintage sports cards appears to have nearly disappeared, with the exception of raw commons, with E-bay becoming the new market and setting the prices on cards under the $2-3K threshold. I noticed a general trend that dealers from CA were the priciest. I didn't realize just because the cost of living is slightly higher in areas of California, the value of their collectables was higher than anywhere else in the country.
I saw a lot of dealers with some very nice raw vintage, and outrageous prices corresponding to the grade they think the card would get if it was graded. What kind of crap is that? Many of the cards were 7 material with the price slightly above the level of an 8. The ones that would pull 8's were also priced slightly above the level of SMR for an 8. IMO, If someone wants to charge graded prices, get them graded, because they weren't selling any of them for those prices. And negociations were weak as well, although I attribute that slightly to having gone on a Thursday, as desperation has not yet set in. Very little leeway was offered on raw and graded cards. For every dealer that had mostly or all raw cards, I was almost always able to spot cards that were trimmed. Whether they trimmed them or not is one thing, but there were thousands of trimmed cards floating around. I actually bought one by accident - which really upset me for failing not to see it at the time. I measured the card any everything, a 41 Playball Gehringer... 2 1/2 x 3 1/4... then it occured to me this morning that Playball cards are 2 1/2 x 3 3/16. Oops... my stupidity for not catching it while I was there. I'm out $60, and I refuse to resell the card on E-bay pretending like I didn't know it was trimmed.
I had a conversation with a grader from GAI which was interesting. From what I gathered from him, they rely on instinct the majority of the time. I asked how they detect the alterations and he said they measure the cards and look for hooks and waves, but I didn't see much measuring going on as I watched them grade. The 7x loupe was only used occasionally, for the most part, the grading process was simply done with the unaided eye. Sure enough, I was able to spot several GAI cards throughout the show that were clearly trimmed.
I also talked with a company spokesman from Upper Deck as to how all 3 of the super Exquisite cards turned up in California. He said it was just a random occurance, however, I think UD could have gone to greater lengths to prevent something like that from ever happening. He agreed with me when I said that I thought the cards are not likely to be worth more than a couple thousand within a few years, and said he could not believe how much they sold for.
Overall, it was a fun time mainly because I was able to view some of the rarest and most valuable cards in the world that were being previewed for the Maestro auction as well as the ones on loan at PSA. Hit the Indians game last night, nice ballpark, extremely small field. Anyways, I learned a lot about the hobby and economy of the hobby yesterday.
Anyone else who attended have any stories, insight, etc.?
I saw a lot of dealers with some very nice raw vintage, and outrageous prices corresponding to the grade they think the card would get if it was graded. What kind of crap is that? Many of the cards were 7 material with the price slightly above the level of an 8. The ones that would pull 8's were also priced slightly above the level of SMR for an 8. IMO, If someone wants to charge graded prices, get them graded, because they weren't selling any of them for those prices. And negociations were weak as well, although I attribute that slightly to having gone on a Thursday, as desperation has not yet set in. Very little leeway was offered on raw and graded cards. For every dealer that had mostly or all raw cards, I was almost always able to spot cards that were trimmed. Whether they trimmed them or not is one thing, but there were thousands of trimmed cards floating around. I actually bought one by accident - which really upset me for failing not to see it at the time. I measured the card any everything, a 41 Playball Gehringer... 2 1/2 x 3 1/4... then it occured to me this morning that Playball cards are 2 1/2 x 3 3/16. Oops... my stupidity for not catching it while I was there. I'm out $60, and I refuse to resell the card on E-bay pretending like I didn't know it was trimmed.
I had a conversation with a grader from GAI which was interesting. From what I gathered from him, they rely on instinct the majority of the time. I asked how they detect the alterations and he said they measure the cards and look for hooks and waves, but I didn't see much measuring going on as I watched them grade. The 7x loupe was only used occasionally, for the most part, the grading process was simply done with the unaided eye. Sure enough, I was able to spot several GAI cards throughout the show that were clearly trimmed.
I also talked with a company spokesman from Upper Deck as to how all 3 of the super Exquisite cards turned up in California. He said it was just a random occurance, however, I think UD could have gone to greater lengths to prevent something like that from ever happening. He agreed with me when I said that I thought the cards are not likely to be worth more than a couple thousand within a few years, and said he could not believe how much they sold for.
Overall, it was a fun time mainly because I was able to view some of the rarest and most valuable cards in the world that were being previewed for the Maestro auction as well as the ones on loan at PSA. Hit the Indians game last night, nice ballpark, extremely small field. Anyways, I learned a lot about the hobby and economy of the hobby yesterday.
Anyone else who attended have any stories, insight, etc.?
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Maybe shows like the National aren't really about making the most money for these dealers, it's showing off their wares, shmoozing amongst themselves, and meeting collectors and forming a relationship that will hopefully translate into future sales and recommendations.
Everybody knows about Ebay--collectors and dealers--so it's not like these dealers are living in a vacuum (other than perhaps Kit Young
<< <i>a 41 Playball Gehringer... 2 1/2 x 3 1/4... then it occured to me this morning that Playball cards are 2 1/2 x 3 3/16 >>
Just curious ... how does a card that measures larger than it should exhibit evidence of trimming? Maybe/hopefully your card is ok after all ...
Then I started hitting all the ridiculous deals on eBay this week, as people who would have normally been bidding held off and went to the national instead. Picked up a nice looking (if angle-cut) t206 Crawford for $24.50, when worse copies had gone for 40-45 earlier in the week, and got a good enough deal on another 206 that I felt almost guilty about it, plus a small pile of 1940 playballs for the wife and various other things.
Yeah, I don't get to meet the people from the boards. Which is a shame, since there are some pretty cool folks around. But I would have been mainly going for cards, and it sounds like I would have been disappointed.
Morrie
A lot of these dealears buy up huge lots of GU/Autos/RC & Semistars just to sell there. They also pick up huge lots of cards of the local guys, knowing they sell over book or at full book there. I do it when I go to KC and when I go to Chicago next spring I'll do the same thing. If you live in NY, the Red Sox and Astros probably don't sell too well, so you buy up everyones Red Sox and Astros Cards and you sell all your Yankees/Giants etc while you're there. Then, wehn you do that show in Boston in 2 weeks you pick up more astros and yankees cards and sell all your red sox cards. Same thing when you get to Houston... I also tend to dump whatever I have left of the stuff I picked up for a show. For example, the last day of the show in KC in May, I dumped about 350 Royals/Kansas/Chiefs cards at 10% of book. But I almost doubled my money just off what was left in the box. I did another 3-400% off the other cards. But that's only because I can get Nick Collison and Trent Green in MN for 15% of book, I can sell them there at 50%+. I also picked up a bunch of Mauers and other Twins while I was there, got a good buy on them too.
Basically it's one big game. I made way more money off dealers at the KC show than I did off patrons. Most of those guys are selling the stuff they don't want or they think they'll get the most money for, or they're just showing off personal collections. I think most of them are there to buy and to buy out smaller dealers. Heck, I could've gone home the first 2 hours I was at the KC show. I got several offers to buy out my table but none were respectable offers IMO.
Anyway, my point is, if you have the time, head back the last day, about 4 hours before it's over and start wheeling and dealing. Especially if they are an out-state dealer and they have a lot of decent Cavs/Indians/Bengals/Browns stuff, you can bet they picked it up cheap just for that show and you'll probably get a steal. Though the likes of Lebron & Carson Palmer get enough nat'l attention you might not have as much luck with that stuff. Vintage has enough of a following nationally as well that you might not get "as good" of deals, but I'll bet most would rather sell a bunch of it the last day then have to pack it up and bring it home. Especially those guys that fly. Now go back there, whip out your cash and start talking real fast-like.
My eBay Store
BigCrumbs! I made over $250 last year!
If I see a good price, I pick an item up - I keep a small pad in my pocket and write down the dealers I want to go back to - keeps me from running in circles.
It's entertaining to see the big deals go down - at first I felt intimidated - but heck - if they came to my office, I could intimidate the crap of anyone in 2 seconds also.
As Eddie would say: We have a really big show!
The National can be the best...
Mike
<< <i> Dealers were all chomping at the bit to buy up vintage cards at 25-40% of their value. But the cards being sold by dealers... a lot of people think their sh!t doesn't stink. I could not believe the prices they had on these cards, and it only took me a few minutes to see why not much business was being done... the large majority of these dealers are attempting to operate in a market that no longer exists. >>
Sounds like the National is a bigger version of most shows these days, the analysis above is perfect.
As with all antique show, or collectible shows, there are lost of different dealers with lots of different prices. That is what makes the hunt so much fun.
I belong to the OBC Group. One of the things we're known for is that we collect a lot of off-grade cards...in fact, many of us will be happy to own cards that will make many of the readers of this forum cry: '60s Rookie cards that have been cut so each player could have his own card, cards that have been trimmed (I own a couple of '55 Bowman cards that have been trimmed to the TV screens), cards that have been burned, etc. One of my fellow OBCers said this weekend, "we make the hobby better because we remove the bad cards from the dealers' hands." Since OBC members wear a distinctive baseball cap whenever we attend shows, many dealers actually set aside boxes of low-grade cards for us and will pull them out upon seeing the hat.
I had one dealer who set aside four boxes of "OBC" stuff...got a '54 Spahn for $5, a '58 Mantle AS for $20, some '50 low #s for under $2 each and a bunch of commons from '57-'72 for 10 cents each. I realize the condition (most of the commons were in the VG-EX range) doesn't give me much of a chance to make a huge profit, but that's not why I collect. I'm in the hobby for the fun, and can always upgrade later.
My collecting philosophy: a hole in the card is better than a hole in the binder.
I was able to add the following HOF rookies to my collection this weekend: Palmer, Fisk, Yount, Sutton...and even added about a half dozen prewar type cards...and spent less than $200 for everything I took home. I also got to spend time with fellow OBC members, who are "throwback"-type collectors like myself. I had a great time, and am already making plans for next year in Chicago.
Vintage Cards Specialist/Hobby Historian
Vintage Baseball Cards website:
http://www.obaks.com/vintagebaseballcards/index.html
to the National in 2006 (Anaheim) and got a bundle of graded cards at 5.00 each. I sold 1/2 of them on ebay for a nice return.
But I thought the first two paragraphs could have easily been written about the 2016 national, from what I've read the last few days.
I take it, that was the point of this ancient post's reappearance.
Certainly more and better reasons to rip California. ;-)
The glitch is that anyone can post to a thread and then delete it, but the thread stays at the top. Someone is having a jolly good time playing hide-and-seek.
Exactly
I see a post by the "late" Chris Stufflestreet - a collector's collector with a humble collection but unparalleled knowledge and experience in the hobby.
I miss Chris. One night we spent hours talking about albums produced in 1978 - what he had in his head? I had to look up.
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
buying O-Pee-Chee (OPC) baseball
Until I read the part about mastro, I thought I was reading a current post.
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