The fallacy of the Modern Sportscard Market
goodriddance189
Posts: 2,388 ✭✭
i'm sure this will cause a few heated arguments between vintage and modern guys, but i don't care. i've been involved in both markets, and i read modern boards regularly. while i no longer collect newer stuff, i feel i am pretty knowledgable. these are my opinions. feel free to disagree if your opinion is different.
my question is, why do people still collect modern cards? i can understand people who collect because they enjoy the cards, but most buy packs and boxes with the hopes of pulling something they can resell for a profit. from everything i've read on other boards, pack prices are getting higher, and the odds of pulling a card to recoup your money is getting lower. i used to collect modern cards a few years ago, and i finally got when i realized the modern market was a losing proposition. i can't tell you how many boxes i purchased for $100, only to discover the main chase card (usually a jersey or crappy auto) would bring me $10 bucks on ebay. sure, there are rare exceptions when i pulled something nice, but those odds were pretty slim. it's a lottery mentality, especially since 99% of the rest of the box is unsellable. before the insert and game used craze started, and before manufacturers started rolling out 100+ sets a year, the base cards at least had some resale value. now there's so much garbage out there that nothing stands out- no one collects sets anymore, and too much product has all but wiped out player-set collectors. the only thing of value is the one per box jersey card, and those are so overproduced that you can now pick up superstars like Arod for six bucks. sure, Beckett still lists these cards at $30-$50 each, but anyone in their right mind knows that the true book value is ebay.
when i left the modern hobby, i was lucky- i pulled a Ruth/Gehrig jersey card and sold it for $2 thousand. i quit while i was ahead, and used that 2k to invest in vintage graded stuff. that was in 2001. now, the modern market is an even bigger mess. companies keep trying to outdo each other, but they've overproduced so much that even the biggest chase cards (usually a jersey serially numbered to 10 or 25) can't hold their value. on paper, an Emmitt Smith autographed patch card numbered to 25 looks like the pull of a lifetime- until you list it on ebay and realize there are 50 other cards from various sets identical to yours. the market is so saturated that these cards won't bring the premiums they used to.
the manufacturers response is to create an even better, more limited set. they sign higher caliber players, they cut up more expensive jerseys, etc. this causes their cost to shoot up, so their pack/box prices increase as well. collector's costs are increasing at a rate infinitely higher than their rate of return. now, several companies are offering single packs that retail for $100-$500 PER PACK. UD's Exquisite product is over $500 for a pack of 4 cards. sure, they offer LeBron and MJ autos, super rare jersey cards, and 1/1's. that isn't the problem. UD is offering the most loaded product in sportscard history. the problem lies in the fact that there are thousands of other super scarce cards out there already. a few years ago, before overproduction hit, a Michael Jordan autograph card was a $1500 item. now, those Exquisite MJ auto's are bringing around $700- barely over the initial pack price. and the Jordan autos are one of the main chases in the set. the only other guy whose cards sell for more than the pack price is LeBron. and the odds of buying a pack and pulling a card that will cover your investment is low- around 5%, maybe less. with pack prices increasing exponentially, a 5% rate of return is awful.
that is one of my two main gripes with the modern market- the lottery mentality. i could tolerate the decreasing chance of making your money back a few years ago. back then, most boxes cost $75, and you got at least a few hundred cards in a box. hey, you were out of food money for a week but at least you had some cards to play with. now, it's hit or miss. how long before manufacturers create one card packs and sell em for $100 each? in those packs, you have a 1 in 10 chance of getting a guaranteed $100 card. in the other 9 packs, you'll get a generic piece of cardboard saying "thank you for playing, but you are not a winner. please try again!" this is pretty much what the market is now anyways.
my other gripe about the modern market involvles the collectors themselves. i've seen countless new threads about a disgruntled collector buying a $100 pack, and getting nothing. several more collectors chime in with "sorry, that's bull----, i'm never buying that product again"....then a few days later you see the exact same complaint about getting screwed, by the exact same guys. if you get turned off by the modern market, and you continue to buy cards, the cycle will never end. i was lucky enough to get out before having to file bancruptcy. but these collectors continue to lose money, and continue to come back and try again so they can lose even more money. if they stood their ground, and refused to buy this crap, manufacturers will eventually stop making it. manufacturers won't sit around and keep making overpriced products if they don't sell. i have no idea what would happen if collectors ever took a stand, but it would be the first step in getting the modern market back on its feet. card companies ain't gonna stop making stuff if it keeps selling. and they'll continue to dilute the market even further.
my question is, why do people still collect modern cards? i can understand people who collect because they enjoy the cards, but most buy packs and boxes with the hopes of pulling something they can resell for a profit. from everything i've read on other boards, pack prices are getting higher, and the odds of pulling a card to recoup your money is getting lower. i used to collect modern cards a few years ago, and i finally got when i realized the modern market was a losing proposition. i can't tell you how many boxes i purchased for $100, only to discover the main chase card (usually a jersey or crappy auto) would bring me $10 bucks on ebay. sure, there are rare exceptions when i pulled something nice, but those odds were pretty slim. it's a lottery mentality, especially since 99% of the rest of the box is unsellable. before the insert and game used craze started, and before manufacturers started rolling out 100+ sets a year, the base cards at least had some resale value. now there's so much garbage out there that nothing stands out- no one collects sets anymore, and too much product has all but wiped out player-set collectors. the only thing of value is the one per box jersey card, and those are so overproduced that you can now pick up superstars like Arod for six bucks. sure, Beckett still lists these cards at $30-$50 each, but anyone in their right mind knows that the true book value is ebay.
when i left the modern hobby, i was lucky- i pulled a Ruth/Gehrig jersey card and sold it for $2 thousand. i quit while i was ahead, and used that 2k to invest in vintage graded stuff. that was in 2001. now, the modern market is an even bigger mess. companies keep trying to outdo each other, but they've overproduced so much that even the biggest chase cards (usually a jersey serially numbered to 10 or 25) can't hold their value. on paper, an Emmitt Smith autographed patch card numbered to 25 looks like the pull of a lifetime- until you list it on ebay and realize there are 50 other cards from various sets identical to yours. the market is so saturated that these cards won't bring the premiums they used to.
the manufacturers response is to create an even better, more limited set. they sign higher caliber players, they cut up more expensive jerseys, etc. this causes their cost to shoot up, so their pack/box prices increase as well. collector's costs are increasing at a rate infinitely higher than their rate of return. now, several companies are offering single packs that retail for $100-$500 PER PACK. UD's Exquisite product is over $500 for a pack of 4 cards. sure, they offer LeBron and MJ autos, super rare jersey cards, and 1/1's. that isn't the problem. UD is offering the most loaded product in sportscard history. the problem lies in the fact that there are thousands of other super scarce cards out there already. a few years ago, before overproduction hit, a Michael Jordan autograph card was a $1500 item. now, those Exquisite MJ auto's are bringing around $700- barely over the initial pack price. and the Jordan autos are one of the main chases in the set. the only other guy whose cards sell for more than the pack price is LeBron. and the odds of buying a pack and pulling a card that will cover your investment is low- around 5%, maybe less. with pack prices increasing exponentially, a 5% rate of return is awful.
that is one of my two main gripes with the modern market- the lottery mentality. i could tolerate the decreasing chance of making your money back a few years ago. back then, most boxes cost $75, and you got at least a few hundred cards in a box. hey, you were out of food money for a week but at least you had some cards to play with. now, it's hit or miss. how long before manufacturers create one card packs and sell em for $100 each? in those packs, you have a 1 in 10 chance of getting a guaranteed $100 card. in the other 9 packs, you'll get a generic piece of cardboard saying "thank you for playing, but you are not a winner. please try again!" this is pretty much what the market is now anyways.
my other gripe about the modern market involvles the collectors themselves. i've seen countless new threads about a disgruntled collector buying a $100 pack, and getting nothing. several more collectors chime in with "sorry, that's bull----, i'm never buying that product again"....then a few days later you see the exact same complaint about getting screwed, by the exact same guys. if you get turned off by the modern market, and you continue to buy cards, the cycle will never end. i was lucky enough to get out before having to file bancruptcy. but these collectors continue to lose money, and continue to come back and try again so they can lose even more money. if they stood their ground, and refused to buy this crap, manufacturers will eventually stop making it. manufacturers won't sit around and keep making overpriced products if they don't sell. i have no idea what would happen if collectors ever took a stand, but it would be the first step in getting the modern market back on its feet. card companies ain't gonna stop making stuff if it keeps selling. and they'll continue to dilute the market even further.
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Comments
Brian
saying nothing new, this argument was just as valid in 98 as it is today in 2004. It is obvious that the
modern market is still doing well..of course if you think selling out of products is well. I agree there are
too many watered down products, but the smart person doesn't have those in his collection! Does the
smart hobby owner have them stuck in their shops?? I know the retail outlets don't get stuck.
You are right, it IS a lottery and there are PLENTY of people ready to play. UD Exq. was a prime examples
of this. UD knew they could sell it, the product offered what was perhaps the longest odds to date of
getting your money back yet collectors jumped on it like wildfire. How can you say anything negative
about that? There has never been, or perhaps every will be that kind of selling power in a vintage issue
graded or not. These boxes went up 50% in one week! I can't think of any vintage cards that do that, as
a matter or fact it will take years for a vintage card to go up by 50%.
So it is good or bad now that you can pick up an Emmitt auto for under 100 bucks? I would say that is good, there
are many collectors out there who don't rip packs, and they can sit back and have many cards to choose from...
it is a buyers market and MANY benifit from that.
...and if you think you are some sort of card collecting virgin because you have never been in it for the money
or because you don't bloody your hands with modern issues, then you need to revaluate. You are basing
your entire existance of grades, population reports and people's honesty! Its just not working, the
grading companies are just as greedy as the companies and in most cases are more needed of money than
companies who are making huge profits. There are always topics here telling how slanted the companies
are, at least when I pull a card from a pack I know it is real.
I still don't know why you are attacking the same people who collect along side you? Do you honestly think
anyone will care about Plante, if they don't get excited by Nash and Heatly first? You were even there, why
is this so hard to understand? Unless you are bitter you aren't there anymore. Maybe you need to buy
a few lotto tickets tonight!
JS
<< <i>So it is good or bad now that you can pick up an Emmitt auto for under 100 bucks? I would say that is good, there are many collectors out there who don't rip packs, and they can sit back and have many cards to choose from...
it is a buyers market and MANY benifit from that.
JS >>
i agree. for the collector who buys most of his singles directly from ebay, the market is awesome. as long as you can realize you can't own everything, you'll be just fine. imagine even 3 years ago being able to buy Arod and Jeter jerseys for $10 apiece. imagine buying HOF or star players' auto's for $10-$15. that's a helluva deal. i still collect some modern, as long as its cheap. i just refuse to buy unopened product any more, because 99 times out of 100 i can get the cards i want from the set for less than the box cost. but half the fun of new cards is busting packs. it isn't half as fun buying singles only.
you are correct though, it is a buyers market. when buying singles, you know exactly what you're getting. the potential to make or lose money is a lot smaller. same thing goes with buying vintage cards.
i guess vintage packs and modern packs are similar. both are a crapshoot.
<< <i>There has never been, or perhaps every will be that kind of selling power in a vintage issue graded or not. These boxes went up 50% in one week! I can't think of any vintage cards that do that, as
a matter or fact it will take years for a vintage card to go up by 50%. >>
That's real nice that they went up by 50%. I can't wait when these morons that spend $64,000 and countless other thousands on these supposedly one of a kind cards try to sell them. They will only be one of a kind for about 2 or 3 weeks until the next product comes out. Talk about depreciation. I can guarantee you this, NO VINTAGE CARD WILL EVER FALL IN VALUE LIKE THESE CARDS WILL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS.
I would like to make you challenge Joe. We both get $5k to spend, I'll buy my vintage and you buy your modern. In three years we sell our purchases on Ebay and we'll really see who's cards retained their value in that time. I'll offer that challenge to any modern collector that thinks the modern cards will retain more value than that of the vintage cards over a span of 3-5 years.
Todd
I like to let the other people gamble and buy what I like, certain limited auto cards, from the disgruntled gamblers selling them off on ebay.
I collect vintage cards for fun, not for profit, yet I don't like to spend $100 bucks and 10 minutes later after busting a box and have the individual cards worth $10 bucks. That is why I feel very comfortable spending a grand on a 1961 Jerry West in PSA 8. I will enjoy the card, inch closer to completing the set, and know that if I wanted to one day I could sell it for what I paid plus or minus a few bucks.
That being said, collect and buy what makes you happy! Life's too short!
A friend of mine spent a fortune (he has it to waste though) on Jordan autos numbered to 23 when they first came out, between 5k and 10k a throw thinking he would really break the bank someday. Nice "investment".
Check out the article in Beckett on the dummy who bought the Jordan/Kobe 1 of 1. Like my buddy, I hope these guys can afford to blow their money because that is what they are doing.
GL
Ruthfan...Again, if you don't collect modern cards and don't bust the packs and don't know the sure
winner every year then why say anything? Topps could start selling "backstock" on their topps vault
auctions, someone could make undetectable conterfeits, one of the grading card companies could be
found liable of fruad......all these could kill the vintage market. Just because topps isn't printing up
52 topps anymore doesn't mean that there aren't going to be anymore left. Like I have said before,
population reports are ALWAYS going up and NEVER down. Once under plastic they will always be under
plastic. Many times the populations of these graded cards surpass todays modern rookie card.
If the grading companies can't tell the difference between a real Pujols BC RC 1/500 and frauds, how can they
tell the difference between a fraud Mantle card or a Williams card? Are you going to tell me that you are
putting all your money into an opinion? That opinion means nothing in my mind if there are no less than
4 graded Pujols bowman chromes rookie cards with the serial number 1/500 on them.
I find it just as sad that someone is willing to pay 45K for a dual GU/auto card, but doesn't that make the
thrill of the rip that much better?
Oops I forgot, you don't rip modern wax.
Believe it or not, there are products that most always make money and sell for more the next year. The smart
collectors here already know those products!
JS
First, this week I have purchased two retail Topps Fan Favorites for 20$/box and pulled a Buck O'neil and a Robin Yount! The enjoyment and the addition to my auto collection is invaluable.
I think that the modern and vintage are a matched pair; a true 1/1. One can not and will not survive without the other.
Here's the deal: Mr. Vintage just bought a PSA 8 Went Bananasonthiscard for 8 grand. The continued value of that card is predicated on a future buyer. As the boomers die off, who's gonna buy it? The former modern turned vintage collector. Just an idea from a vintage and modern collector.
Stone
<< <i>As the boomers die off, who's gonna buy it? >>
Strangely, even though everyone who saw Ty Cobb and Honus Wagner play are dead, the living will pay many thousands of dollars for their cards.
Personally, I haven't opened much much new since last year because I'm sick and tired of spending good money to bust a box and pull the bare minimum from it. I have never pulled a good rookie from SP Signature, SPX nor Playoff Contenders. Out of 20 or so boxes from those products over the past several years (not to mention all the other wax I've bought), the best card I pulled was a Randy Moss auto/50. While this may be a nice card, I do agree the dilution of the market has rendered this card to the realm of "mediocrity". When you look at the other 50+ products out there, there is a Short Printed auto in nearly every set.
You can complain all you want about market saturation and the inability to profit from the current market, but use this to your advantage!! There are plenty of nice cards out there that can be bought very cheaply.
Regards,
Greg M.
References:
Onlychild, Ahmanfan, fabfrank, wufdude, jradke, Reese, Jasp, thenavarro
E-Bay id: greg_n_meg
<< <i>Strangely, even though everyone who saw Ty Cobb and Honus Wagner play are dead, the living will pay many thousands of dollars for their cards. >>
JR
My question about who will buy the cards as the boomers die was rhetorical. My point is that someone will buy them and it will be younger people - people who may have bought modern stuff will become interested in older vintage. To my son, Rickey Henderson, Cal Ripken, Tony Gwynn etc. are "vintage" players but when he is older and a 56T Mantle comes up for sale, he may want to jump on that.
I wanted my take home message to be: todays modern buyers are tomorrow's vintage purchasers.
Stone
Anyways I got into the hobby as a kid buying 25 cent packs in the mid 80's. Then I stopped when I went into high school...
Around 98 with the Beckett auction site and the internet experience in full swing I bought a bunch of Prewar cards. Then I went to University and only started up again these past few months...
To me I find Modern baffling. There is a lot of stuff and I have little interest in it, so I don't collect it, simple as that.
<< <i> It's just another example of how the hobby is only trying to cater to its existing customers (people who bought cards as kids, and now have more money) instead of bringing new people into the fold. Kids don't want to spend $500 on a pack of cards, they want to spend around a buck and get 10 pictures of baseball players. You probably won't see people 50 years from now trying to go back and reassemble that set of UD Exquisite their mother threw out when they went to college. >>
I think mudflap said it best. 50 years from now, when everyone on the boards today is gone, who do we think is going to take our place? Nobody in my son's class collects baseball cards, and it is a rare sight to see a child in the local card shop. I guess Donald Trump's kids can afford to collect but most kids today, I would guess, have never bought a baseball card, and never will.
My position is simple minded, naive, unscientific and optimistically intuitive: As long as there is baseball, there will be baseball card collectors. And you can't have a vintage market without a modern one
Mike
edit to add: JoeStalin has put this argument better than I have and is armed with more modern data - he has in the past covered every inch of this discussion and has my complete attention and backing on this matter - the shop may have gone the way of the dinosaur but ebay and retail venues like target, walmart etc. are alive and doing well IMO.
Why do people go to Vegas and pump money into slot machines and Blackjack tables when they usually lose?
There will always be a thrill in gambling, and most people that can control themselves just pump out the cash that they can afford to lose. The sensible people lose once or twice and stay away forever. The bottomline is that people who do either of the acts above with their money usually go away with the attitude that they had fun trying and shrug their shoulders. Does anybody here play golf? Do you just play with the plans that you'll one day turn into one of the top five money leaders on the PGA tour and hence just write off your current expenses as an investment? Well, good for you, but some of us play for fun, and when we spend $75 to go out and play for the day, I guess we're complete morons according to GoodRiddance's theory for flushing money down the toilet. I haven't seen anyone at my store open a box that was a complete investing robot. I've had guys buy a box of Fleer Focus, get a jersey of Peja Stojakovic and walk away happy because they don't have a Peja Jersey yet and they almost completed the base set of Focus. He might've pumped $75 into the box and walked away with $30 in cards, but just like playing a round of golf, he had fun.
If the modern market completely falls off, so will the vintage market. In the next few years the card companies will get smarter and produce less sets and probably eliminate some of the online wholesalers when they realize that the steady flow of online sellers undercutting each other on boxes leads to the increase of online singles that go for peanuts. Just the way I see it,
Jason
Our current ebay auctions, and of course BaseBallCardHeaven.com
There's something cool about having sets from 1910 next to ones from last year in your collection ... plus, Joe can't call me out for not knowing anything about modern cards
I don't fault people for collecting modern cards. I fault the people that are "investing" huge sums of money on this man made garbage that sells for many thousands of dollars only to realize that when it comes time to sell down the road they are going to get a big slap in the face. Joe, even you can't really believe that the prices that are being paid for some cards from the Exquisite will really hold their value in just a couple of years down the road. Hell, for the $64,000 that was paid for the Bryant/Jordan card one could have purhased the complete jerseys that were issued for both teams entire rosters and still had plenty of money left over.
I also understand that modern can sell for great sums of money when it is hot (which is only for about 1-3 months after initial release and in some cases shorter). Four years ago I was able to sell one of the Michael Jordan autographed cards that was #d to 23 for $7k, which is what the Beckett value of the card was. Now, I have seen the card sell for considerably less. You can now purhase other Jordan autographed cards also #d to 23 for roughly 10% of what I sold mine for. Their both autographed and #d to 23, so what is the difference? Why shouldn't they both be worth the same? Because they have produced literally hundreds of autographed cards all # to 23 which saturated the market and left no real special value. It seems that they are doing that to almost every card they they produce. The Lebron/Jordan patch card is hot, at least until the next product comes out with another Lebron/Jordan patch card. Remember, collectible value is not made over night. It is made over an extended period of time, which is why I love vintage.
Vintage collectors do have an unfair advantage over modern collectors when it comes to value. Vintage obtained their value by lasting over several decades when people collected for the fun of it and not with monetary value in mind. Rarely were cards stored to keep their superior conditon when most were flipped, slapped on a bike or just thrown away by mom Most of todays cards are placed in some type of holder within seconds that the card sees the light of day which does not fare well for the ability of todays cards to gain value on conditon alone.
I think (or at least hope) that the majority of the modern collectors (not investors) realize that due to the amount of cards being produced and with all of the tired gimmicks that the card companies are using that their collections holding value is relatively slim.
Joe since you did not respond to my challenge, I assume it is safe to say that you are not up to it you agree that is just would not be worthwhile.
Todd
Todd
1. Too expensive. $500 for a pack? Crazy. Even $3 for a pack is absurd. Where have all the twenty-five cent packs gone?
2. Bad return on investment. Oh, here is where those twenty-five cent packs reside--it's the Valhalla for all those $500 and $3 packs from years prior.
3. Cards are too flashy. Until cards can actually interact intelligently with me, I'll pass on refactors, holograms, cut sigs, or whatever the latest fad is. A card should either be like a toilet--simple and gets the job done--or smart enough like the internet and be able to tell me WHAT I want to know about the player WHEN I want to know it.
4. I don't care about modern players. As an adult I don't find any reason to idolize a sports figure. When I was a kid, I did, though, and I get nostalgic for old times which is why I collect old cards.
blah blah blah....
Ruth, why does everyone have to be in it for money? I can tell that you really got screwed one year in cards....if
you are in it only to make money then you will be 9 times out of 10 disappointed with packs. I can guarentee
you that very few people opening UD exq were investing! Again you just don't understand the market now and
yes it was A LOT different than it was in 2000 when you were ripping. The most expensive pack in 2000 was
again under 100 bucks and most packs were still under 5 dollars. Today it is hard to find a pack of cards under
5 dollars. That is the cost we pay for cut autos and HOF autos. How many products in 99 had autographs of
Mike Schmidt in them?
You have given me a few extreme examples, that means nothing. Why do you quote one guy buying a
card for 64K,when that is clearly NOT how the market works? I know you are mad that you weren't the one
on the selling end of that card, and you know that you will NEVER have a vintage card that sought after, but
why take it out on us? I happen to find you type of collecting boring. There is nothing unique about vintage
cards, they have already been seen and touched and in most cases looked over. You all treat condition
like we treat money! A 50 year old card with a crease in it or a print spot is garbage! Who cares who is on
the card as long as it is PSA _ and you need it for the set. Your cards will never go up based upon the
guys playing on the field and once again the pop reports are only going up.
Im sorry that all your modern cards went down in price. You must be so bitter now that nothing I can say
will take away the regret you have in sitting on these cards for too long. You might as well sell what you
have and save yourself from further embarassment.
JS
If you haven't seen the $ vs. other currencies over the last year, it isn't pretty. I will bet over the next 2 years, I can make a better profit putting US$100,000 into Colombian Pesos vs. the same into vintage cards or the stock market. The Colombian peso is about 2765 - $1. About 10 years ago it was 800-1. I'm looking for a rebound based on dollar weakness and 54 miles of land in Colombia once finished will complete the Alaska to Argentina highway. I do not own a single share of stock at this point and I'm getting out of $ as well. Sins of the late 90's have not been paid for enough. If I don't do well with my investment, at least the women are 1000 times better looking there than the women here.
And all those who mortgaged out their homes equity, what will they do if another 9-11 happens and their home drops by 50%? Foreclosure nation.
Could happen.
I don't see the hype of Google. I've never given them any money, nor have I ever clicked on their sponsor's links. They're a good search engine--I'll give them that--but does that justify a THIRTY BILLION DOLLAR VALUATION? I hardly think so.
<< <i>4. I don't care about modern players. >>
I generally agree - which is why I tend to prefer modern products with a healthy, if not exclusive, checklist of legends and retired players. I find that they're the perfect complement to some of the vintage cards in my collection, particularly if they are autographed. For example, for a little more than the retail price of just one box, I got this "flashback" beauty of a card:
If you collect the right modern sets/cards, vintage and modern can go hand-in-hand quite nicely ...
<< <i>that is one vintage argument i can't understand- "i don't care about modern players." then why do you still follow sports nowadays? i could understand if they said "i don't care about modern players' cards, because they are too flashy/overproduced/whatever" >>
I don't follow much sports these days--certainly not as much as I did when I was a kid. Really, the extent of my sports watching comes from Fantasy Football (i don't idolize them--I just use them for stats), and because a lot of close people to me DO follow sports--so it's something to share in common.
I can have those two things and still not care about the individual players. Some players are decent people, however, but no more decent than I am, and far and away not as praise-worthy as a soldier risking his or her life on a daily basis.
Sports are fun to watch and play, though, but I get no more joy out of any one individual in real life than I do for a fake one in a video game. It's just bodies in motion as far as I'm concerned.
Also, I'm sure big name dealers who have outlets to sell those "unsellable" cards can make decent money busting the low to mid-priced products. But they've built up a client base over time. The average guy wanting to become a dealer overnight by busting a ton of wax is going to be disappointed. That may not apply to anyone here, but we know there are a lot of people like that out there. Especially in this economy where so many people have crummy jobs and are searching for any way to make extra dough.
Let me first of all start off by saying that I am no way a PSA kiss a$$ like alot of the people on here. Secondly, I purchase the card and not the holder, always have and always will. Yes, condition is important to me. I would much rather have a nice looking card that is 40+ years old and gone through the sands of time and has an established value due to the condition. Are the lesser conditioned vintage cards any less appealing? No, because all vintage cards regardless of conditon all have their place.
I am glad to see that condition is not a priority with you, because when dealing with modern cards there is NO marketplace for NM or lower grade cards. At least with vintage cards, there is a market for all grades.
Another reason modern cards can't keep any real value is that the value mostly placed on what a player MAY do in the future rather than what the player has already done. How many collectors have been burt by this when the can't miss player turned out to be nothing more than a want a be. I know I have purchased cards thinking the same. That is another reason vintage cards retain their value. Everything has pretty much been established; the players career, life and the cards that are out there.
I can honestly say that I have never taken a bath on any sports memorabilia that I have ever purchased. In fact, I would say that I am very much ahead of the game. I have turned 5 figure collections into 6 figure paydays.
I also must be reading different threads than you are because there has been an awful lot of griping on here due to alot of peoples displeasure with spending thousands of dollar on Exquisite and getting next to nothing back. I find it hard to believe that anyone willing to spend $500 on a pack of cards is not doing it for the money but for the love of collecting. It's all about the chase, if they hit a good one it is an instant payday, so inturn it is all about the money.
I know the $64k sale is not in the norm, but you have quite a few sales of modern cards that have nothing more than a # written on them selling for several grand. I just find it hard to believe someone can pay that kind of money on a shortprinted card when history shows that company's usually put out a card just like it in the next product that is introduced. Take a PSA 8 1956 Topps Mickey Mantle #135 as an example. The card has gone up $550 in the last 4-5 months, but I can guarantee if it was well known that several high grade examples would be introduced into the marketplace every 3 months like they do in modern, the value would crash and burn.
I can easily name and document 10 vintage card sales that have increased in value today than when sold in 1999. Can you do the same for modern cards? Heck you probably can't do it with cards that were sold just within the last year.
Why pay $5 bucks or more per pack in trying to pull an autograph of a player when you can most likely go to a show for a fraction of the money that would be spent on packs and purchase the autograph outright? Let me let you in on another secret. Most of the people paying large sums for cut autographs pasted on cardboard can purchase the similar cut autograph from the same source that the card companies get them for a fraction of the cost. But I guess since its been put on a piece of cardboard and issued by a card company it makes it worth that much more.
Todd
It still happens - I rescued a pack worth of Donruss Classics football and several packs of UD Legends basketball yesterday at my regular shop. They weren't even all commons - unless Tim Duncan, Allen Iverson, and Randy Moss have become commons. I hand them over to the dealer, who will disperse them among child customers.
If you're not even willing to keep the base cards, buying cards surely isn't much fun for you - in fact it's more akin to a junkie's fix.
The modern card market is damaging itself because the impetus has ceased to be on set-building. The proliferation of game-used, autographed, and scarce parallels and inserts has made player collecting a very difficult and expensive proposition, such that most casual player collectors no longer make an effort to acquire more than a few representative samples of those cards from even their favorite players.
On modern cards, each new set appreciably reduces demand for most other sets. The same does not happen with vintage. Bowman Chrome (and a few other sets) baseball rookies are an exception, because they are quite often the only true rookie of a player in hobby parlance. The other sports, where the rookies are contained in all the major sets in the same year, do not have a set that holds its value across the board like that.
Nick
Reap the whirlwind.
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<< <i>Why pay $5 bucks or more per pack in trying to pull an autograph of a player when you can most likely go to a show for a fraction of the money that would be spent on packs and purchase the autograph outright? >>
It certainly works both ways though - the $70 I spent on a 1999 Topps Certified autograph of Jerry Rice sure beats the $125+ he charges at shows to sign his name. And for players who never do shows, modern auto cards may be the only choice. I agree on the cut auto comments though - the prices realized for many of the "legendary cuts" cards were a joke, relative to what you could buy them for from a reputable auction house.
You say that there is room for all grades in vintage..I just don't see that. When people come into shops or at
show they aren't looking for just the cards. Damaged vintage gets no love no matter how old it is, this is one
thing I never understood. You only have to read these posts to see it...ooo there is spot, there is lost gloss
on that one....hey that is 80/20. If you get a qualifier you might as well throw the card away! Its all about
condition...it doesn't even matter who is on the card.....8 or better, 7's and higher...blah blah blah!
If it will only take solid proof to put you in your place then here you go:
99 UV Soriano...I remember it at 8.00 bucks it is now at 65.00
99 UV Beckett....same price
00 TT Auto Cabrera....20.00 bucks months ago now at 350.00
00 TT Auto M Young.....not even listed months ago, now 150.00
01 Bow Chrome Pujols auto...1200.00 now (thats more than most Mantle cards!) was under 200 several years
ago....actually all Pujols cards have rose in value
There are many other examples...you can't touch these cards without paying big bucks. Dunn, Blalock, Willis...the
list is huge and growing! Look at Vick in football...the guy has been hurt and his cards have ALWAYS been on
fire!
Lets see, Pujols BC auto...quadrupled in price to 1200.00 Can you show me a vintage example of that?
LMK
Thanks
JS
You spend appropriately and proportionately on key modern cards that will become vintage. Not the lottery cards. That's a seperate audience.
I think it's a good time to discuss metal detecting.
you could say the same thing about modern cards. how many people are collecting Soriano rookies with 80/20 centering or corner dings?
You have given me a few extreme examples
and so have you with these examples-
99 UV Soriano...I remember it at 8.00 bucks it is now at 65.00
99 UV Beckett....same price
00 TT Auto Cabrera....20.00 bucks months ago now at 350.00
00 TT Auto M Young.....not even listed months ago, now 150.00
01 Bow Chrome Pujols auto...1200.00 now (thats more than most Mantle cards!) was under 200 several years
ago....actually all Pujols cards have rose in value
There are many other examples...you can't touch these cards without paying big bucks. Dunn, Blalock, Willis...the list is huge and growing! Look at Vick in football...the guy has been hurt and his cards have ALWAYS been on fire!
sure, those cards have gone up. but that's 6 years worth of cards.....thousands and thousands of total cards produced in that time.....and all you can give me are a dozen examples of cards that have increased? lame.
Lets see, Pujols BC auto...quadrupled in price to 1200.00 Can you show me a vintage example of that?
vintage raw cards that have increased 4X? no. raw vintage usually holds its value over time, with minor plus/minus price fluctuations. if you're talking about vintage graded, i could give you 100 examples of cards that have quadrupled (and a lot more) in value.
for every modern card that increases in value, there are 500 that decrease in value. i'm not talking about Beckett "value," everyone knows that magazine is a joke. i'm talking about ebay value.
waiting to hear your defense stalin
<< <i>I think it's a good time to discuss metal detecting. >>
Packs, are gambling, but sometimes you can get something good. For example I bought 9 packs of last year's Topps 205 series II and I got a rare 1/1 Bazooka Mini card of Kevin Millar which I sold on ebay for about $76. I made back the money spent on packs, and even pulled one RC of the prospect I collect, Delmon Young!
I usually find key RC's I want either on the 'bay or on Naxcom for less than BV. Raw vintage is hard to find in good shapes, but I've been lucky with one dealer who's trying to sell his personal collection. I've bought raw 75 Ryan, Jim Rice, Aaron for cheap and I've got 8's on all of them, and recently a raw Topps Ryne Sandberg RC for $7 and got a PSA 9 out of it.
Basically, the hobby is fun, even in raw if you know what you're looking for.
At most of the shops I go to, they knock $ off the boxes b/c I pay in cash and am a frequent customer. They also throw in supplies, Becketts, etc. Some shops even save my favorite rookies/players (Maddux/Palmeiro) for me and give me their cards for free. I am not spending my essential (i.e., food, rent, gas, etc.) money on the hobby and I enjoy ripping new wax as much as I enjoy finding a decently centered/preserved vintage card (my most recent= a 59 mantle). My own personal collection consists of the few players I collect (autos, rookies, and graded cards- no gu cards) along w/a few players I am speculating on (mainly Chrome rookies). There are some companies (UD) who have some problems (i.e., mass duplicates of cards in boxes/very poor collation; insane odds; huge # of boxes put out; etc.), but these problems are easily fixable and most would diminish if customers stopped buying their boxes. Personally, I rarely buy UD products as I prefer Topps, Donruss, and even Fleer.
PS Not that it matters, but for a decently valued (as of now, since it just came out) card I pulled recently: A Carmelo Anthony Topps Finest Gold Refractor Auto #/25. Last 1 (and only 1 so far) sold on ebay for $500. Not a bad return on the $25 I spent on the mini box (6 packs). Another decent return of mine: a 2 color #1/1 hideo nomo patch from a $75 box of Fleer Flair MLB- sale price on ebay= $320. Again, not a bad return for having a card in my possession for < 10 days. I open 2-3 boxes of nearly every MLB/NBA product and w/the exception of a few boxes (usually UD products- and fleer jersey edition), I have almost always made a profit on the box. There is a way for any collector to make money in this hobby and those who are strictly/mainly investors (or simply modern collectors) are no more or no less better/smarter than those who are strictly/ mainly vintage collectors.
What do you do with your boxes of commons? And do you ever keep any of the "money" cards?
Just curious
My eBay Store
BigCrumbs! I made over $250 last year!
As for the dancing dude...that sure looks like what'shisname the boss guy from The Office. If you've ever worked in an office, you should go to Amazon.com and buy the first season of The Office on DVD right now. Trust me.
You buy or collect whatever makes you happy.
Personally, I prefer modern, but I've completely abandoned all the chase card garbage to concentrate on rookie card speculation and for me the only quality product is Bowman Chrome.