Prospect: Jeff Francis, P, AAA - Unbelievable!! Phenom!!

TheRoach

Ok, here it is. I check out the Minor League reports here and there to get updates on prospects. Awhile back, this kid in the Colorado AA system was 9-0 at the time I read it. I started following him and he kept winning and winning, and winning.

He finally got to 12-1 before he was promoted to AAA last week. In his first start tonight, he allowed 1 hit through 7 innings, only 1BB, and he struck out 12. I know he is eventually going to be playing at Coors, but I have to admit, this kid looks to be another pitching phenom. All his numbers are great. His ERA was under 2.00 before he was sent to AAA, he had like 20+ walks, but also 140 or so strikeouts.

He pitched for the World in the All Star Futures game, and he pitched 1 inning without allowing a hit or walk. he struck out 2.

This is basically for all the modern collectors, but you may want to take a look at this kid. I have no doubt that he will get called up in September. He's 23 years old. He pitched 4 years at a Canadian college.





TheRoach

BugOnTheRug

R,
Sounds like the real deal but remember, many a pitcher (and position player for that matter) has had very good success the first time through. For me, it will be more interesting what happens at the AAA and pro level after he has been studied by opposing teams for a couple of years. No doubt he's off to a great start.

I can remember all the hoopla surrounding Kevin McReynolds' hitting in the early 1980's. Put up incredible numbers in the minors. Not only did he retired long ago (with the common card designation), he's also............Kevin who????

Let's hope this 23 year old can continue his successful ways and becomes an integral part of the 'show'.

BOTR

NickM

Pray he gets traded to the Dodgers.

Nick

helionaut

Zach Greinke is just 2-6, but he's reportedly pitching well. His smaller stats, like a 1.05 WHIP and .226 BAA indicate he's getting people out, but just 6 Ks per 9 IP is low and shows they are putting the ball in play, and 9 HRs are a little more than you'd like in 63 innings. Just one or two costly mistakes per game and you lose. His cards went up when he got called up, but are slipping. If he goes this way the rest of the year, short-term investors will be in trouble. However, Beckett has a kind of weird effect on some players' values. Jeremy Bonderman cards were kind of buoyed last year despite a pretty bad performance, I think mainly by Beckett touting him through the season as a good pitcher in spite of his numebrs, and possibly with a reverse-psychology effect people get in wanting to have the "best of the worst."

Yes, Francis is having a very nice year, leading his league in the pitching triple crown and all. But remember he pitches for Colorado, so there's virtually no way to project how he'll do on promotion, not to mention the fact that ML hitters are a bit better than AA hitters in general. There will probably be some room for growth in the meantime, though. I pulled his 02 Bowman Chrome refractor auto and it's been in my trade box with no interest for 18 months, but now it's become saleable, lucky for me. I still think that investing in pitchers is too risky for all but the bluest chip guys, and even then.

Dallas88

LOL - hey helionaut - did you know thru Greinke's starts, guess what his RUN SUPPORT has benn - under 2, YES TWO runs a game his offense gives him........it's unbelievable he even has a win! He pitches 7 innings abd the damn Royals give him 2 runs, at BEST to work with - every time!!! The Royals offense sucks so bad! His mid 3.00 era is awesome for a rookie.

I've followed him since he started in the Royals org...thru Wichita and Omaha......forget these other prospects like this Francis guy- Greinke's the real deal!

KallMaloneSay

Greinke looks like he can be the next Tim Hudson, but he will start four years younger as a 20 year old. I found a great story that is already calling him the Best Pitcher Ever!

Francis is nasty and will be Colorado's first successful pitcher ever. I know we were saying that about Chin-Hui Tsao a year ago, but Francis is a power lefty with impeccable control, not many of those around.

Check out Jose Capellan too. He throws an effortless 98 MPH fastball and since he's already had Tommy John surgery, he should be a strong candidate to stay healthy. In my opinion, stay away from pitchers, let everyone else brag about their Mark Prior-type buys which are few and far between. Buy David Wright Topps Pristine cards (Bowman Chrome is selling a little too strong), Casey Kotchman, and BJ Upton. One of those guys will make it huge and even if the other two flop badly, the one who lasts will make up the difference for the other two.
Jason

helionaut

Yes, I know about his run support, which is a valid point, but evaluating a pitcher for success on the field and betting on his cards are two different things, and most card buyers don't look that closely. If you took a real close look at Juan Cruz or Freddy Garcia at certain points in their careers you'd think they're pretty good pitchers, and they are/were but they aren't worth investing in. Maybe it's not fair to say Greinke needs to have a sub-2.00 ERA to win, and have his cards stay up, though that is the reality so far. I think he's been both unlucky and lucky so far in his performance. Yes, he's lost some games for lack of runs, but giving up fewer homers would've solved that in at least 2 games, right? That's what I mean by making a few costly mistakes, even they are solo homers. Sure, this sad state could lead to some gains later if/when the Royals score runs for him, but the way things are going for that team, the season looks like a write-off and that probably means trouble for Greinke's cards. I mean, the Royals aren't going to trade him, but what are they doing to improve things? Nothing immediate. In a couple years he could get to be where someone like Mark Mulder is, and his cards are like gold, right? Then there's always the injury thing. Mark Prior missed a month last because he got run over on the basepaths, and this year his foot hurt too much for the first 2 months. Now he's out again. Pena and the Royals have been careful so far, but a young fastball pitcher is a great temptation for a manager to overuse. A few 130-pitch games in the next year or so and he could be saying,"Hello, Dr. Jobe."

All this comes back to my bottom line, which is,"Don't invest in pitchers."