The '69 Topps Don Sutton PSA 9 enigma

dude

It came and went without much fanfare, and congratulations to Ron Sanders Jr., but a 1969 Topps Don Sutton PSA 9 (1 of 1) closed on eBay last week and sold for $525. I was the second highest bidder and was amazed that this card went for so low considering it's the only '69 Topps PSA 9 Sutton in existence. I rhought that it would easily go over $800.

I can recall when a (1 of 1) '69 Yaz PSA 9 went for over $2,000 and even more recently a (1 of 5) Bob Gibson went for $750. 1969 registry collectors have dropped down $375 for 1 of 1 PSA 9 commons.

Considering that is was a Hall Fame Dodger, from a reputable seller, any ideas why this card didn't do better?

CON40

Dan...

I don't think it's that out of whack... to many collectors Sutton is a marginal HOFer (his 8s almost sell for common prices) so the $525 sale price is in direct corelation to a common selling for $375... now the Yaz card is a mythic low pop rarity so it will draw lots of interest whenever it appears (plus there are lots of Yaz collectors), and the Gibson, though slightly easier to find in a 9, is still a tough card of a 60s icon from a popular team.

ZodiacMindwarp

Dan,

I think the "Dave" factor is why the Sutton did not do better.

1. Dave Jacobs has sold his set.

2. Dave Read has sold his set.

3. Dave Cryer did not bid on the auction.

It seems to me that the bulk of the 1969 registry would rather spend the money on many 8s rather than one 9. Even the number of active registrant who don't mind 7s has increased.

gaspipe26

I originally had the Sutton and I sold it on Ebay awhile back for half of what Ron paid for it. I too that the card was worth well over $800. I sold the Hunter 1 of 1 for $1200.

dude

gaspipe26 -- Yes, your numbers seem to be more inline to what I expected.

acowa

EBAY's a weird place to do business. This is a case where it pays to be a patient dealer. The final prices seem to reflect whatever the mood of the underbidder at any given moment. The fluctuations in prices are mind boggling. Given these two sales, what should the accurate SMR "value" be?


Regards,


Alan

Fuzz

Bob/Dan,
While I don't really consider myself a 89 collector, I have between 150 - 200 cards in 8 and 9 and have always enjoyed the set. I collected it when I was young and the allure of the Master set is very hard to resist. I have bought from both of you in past and find you to be fair and knowledge about the cards. I several of the cases mentioned both unexpectedly high and unexpectedly low prices occurred. What I guess I want to ask is, does the occasional bargain give away as a seller change your strategy re: eBay and maybe moving towards some type of fixed price list or offering? Several of the fixed price list dealers ask 2X to 3X SMR for high pop commons and 5X+ for anything remotely tough. It would seem with you grasp of the market, being able to set fair prices for the tougher items might results in fast turn over and maximize $ in pocket. Any thoughts??
Fuzz

Fuzz

That was suppose to be '69 collector' not 89.
Fuzz

dude

Fuzz wrote does the occasional bargain give away as a seller change your strategy re: eBay and maybe moving towards some type of fixed price list or offering?

Great question and thanks for the kind words Fuzz! Actually most of the time on a high ticket item (unless I know the market is on fire), I'll start the bidding with a high reserve (70% of SMR) and put a Buy It Now that I'd be happy with.

gemint

That seemed like a low price for a 1 of 1 HOF. Even though Sutton isn't the most popular HOFer, I thought there would be enough players in the PSA 9 market to drive this one up to nearly $1000. Although I'm number three on the registry, I rarely make plays for PSA 9's. I sometimes pick up high pop commons if I can get them for the mid $20's or less. You won't see me bidding hundreds of dollars for 9's. I think Ron Hobbs is selective in what he chases after too. So unlike many other sets in the registry, the 1969 registry does not have a lot of participants who are aggressively purchasing PSA 9s.

gaspipe26

I sold a 1969 WL Mantle PSA 7 last night. I had an opening bid of $1199.99, with a BIN of 1699.99. The week before one sold for over $1700. Mine wound up with 1 bid. This card was a steal at $1200, I'd even pay the $50 and send it in for an 8 shot. I just dont understand the market sometime. I dont seem to do well when I list my 1969's. I'm not sure why. That Sutton sold for under $250 less than 6 months ago. Now over $500 and its the same card, same POP. I'm the only loser on the card because its worth more than what Ron paid for it.

gemint

It's a very volatile market. Usually high final hammer prices are reliant on only two or three bidders. If one doesn't participate in a particular auction, the final sale price can be vastly lower. It's particularly true for 1974 PSA 9's where some commons are selling for $200+ while others sell for under $10. I've had more than a few cards that failed to get a bid with starting bids under $10 only to sell at $50+ after relisting at a later time using the same starting bid. I did pretty well with a few low pop 1969 commons along with the Ryan and Mays I sold yesterday. However, if one of the bidders did not participate, it would have been a different story.

TWINRON

Sorry folks, but I don't agree that the Sutton went too low. It is a POP 1 of 1 PSA9 with over 55 PSA's and only a weight of 2. Also, there is no Dodgers Team set in the registry to excite more bidders.

I recently won a POP 1 of 1 PSA9 common (#243-Kline) for $73 and lost the POP 8 PSA8 #78-Satriano to a $213 bid. The 69's currently have some very unpredictable bidders.

I do agree if Dave Creyer wanted the Sutton, the bid could have easily passed $1000.

Is this a great and crazy hobby or what!!


Ron Hobbs-- See some of you at Nationals . I have Booth 1336

dude

...and lost the POP 8 PSA8 #78-Satriano to a $213 bid

Ron - Sorry to see you lost that card. Gemint would have owed me a pretty stiff finders fee it you had won.


Is this a great and crazy hobby or what!!

Agreed!

gaspipe26

Ron,
You need a Satriano? I have 3 in PSA 8, you can buy 1 of them if you want. LMK

Bob

magellan

<< <i>I rarely make plays for PSA 9's. I sometimes pick up high pop commons if I can get them for the mid $20's or less. You won't see me bidding hundreds of dollars for 9's. I think Ron Hobbs is selective in what he chases after too. So unlike many other sets in the registry, the 1969 registry does not have a lot of participants who are aggressively purchasing PSA 9s. >>



I think gemint has a very good point here as do Ron & Keith on Sutton in particular. I won a PSA 7 Yaz this weekend for $55 which is well over book but because I'm both a Yaz & a '69 collector my snipe was set for well above this. I was the only bidder to meet the reserve. I also bought a Mantle for $210 (also a 7) from a board member as well as a few commons from Bob's recent submission, so it was a nice weekend for filling holes in my set . Having said that you'll never see me bid hundreds of dollars for a common (I'll probably eat crow on this for the last few cards in the set) just because I feel a 7 is a very nice example usually. If push comes to shove at the end and Shannon or some other low pop is keeping me from completing the set, I just may settle for a 6. Speaking of Shannon , why IS he regarded as so tough, the total pop is over 40 I believe?

Dave

dude

Speaking of Shannon , why IS he regarded as so tough, the total pop is over 40 I believe?

magellan --

I've asked the same question many times myself. Besides being a minor star, and I believe he's one of the Cardinals' broadcasters, there was a longtime perception that this was one of, if not the most condition-sensitive cards in the set. I believe that because there was so much hype about this card on this very message board that dealers and collectors went way out of their way to find high condition examples and the market has tried to meet the demand. That's why I believe it is important to post discussions about the tough cards on this message board. The market will respond when possible.


gaspipe26 --

That's impressive that you have that many Satrianos. My personal belief from early on was that the Santriano and not the Shannon was the toughest card in the set. When the one and only PSA 9 surfaced, I paid a pretty penny for it, but it was still a significant bit less than double the price of the PSA 8 that just sold, so I feel pretty good about that purchase.

ZodiacMindwarp

Dave,

Shannon is a low pop because of the 41 graded there are only 11 eights and 2 nines. That's less than one-third of the total population in "investor" grade. You shouldn't have to pay an arm and a leg for a Shannon in PSA 7. The eBay sales this year have been:

110: Mike Shannon

PSA 7: $30.50 (2/6)
$50.00 (3/30)
$43.00 (4/2)
$38.25 (5/19)

PSA 8: $306.00 (3/23)
$202.50 (4/18)

PSA 9: $444.00 (5/23)

There were no sales in PSA 6 or lower.

magellan

The 7 doesn't look too bad then. Thanks for the info Dan & Mike.

In looking at the pop reports it seems to me that the real tough one is Bob Priddy #248 or Jackie Hernandez #258. They were both total pop of 18 as of last months pop report. Granted I look at this differently than a lot of people as I want a 7 or an 8 rather than an 8 or up but I find total pops are usually pretty telling. I think Stump had a Priddy 8 up this weekend at a starting bid of $39.99 and don't believe it sold. This is off the top of my head so I could be wrong here.

Dave

ZodiacMindwarp

Dave,

Low submissions does not always equal a low population card.

For #248, of the 19 submitted, 13 were 8s and 2 were 9s; a 79% "collector" grade success rate.

For #258, of the 18 submitted, 11 were 8s and 1 was a 9; a 67% success rate.

#248 has not sold in any grade this year. It was listed at $39.99 in PSA 8 this weekend with no bids.

The first sale this year for #258 occurred this past Saturday. It closed at $27.00 for a PSA 8.

gaspipe26

Dan,
I also have 2-#655 Hershberger's in 8 and the only 9. I also have 2-#663 Radatz in 8, 1 in 7 and the lone 9. I have been stockpiling the tough ones.

Mitochondria

Dan,

Thank you for the kind words. In fact, I thought the card was a good deal based on percentage of 9's (roughly 1 out of every 98 cards) as opposed to it being a population of 1. In addition, the sheet that the Sutton was printed on during the second series has him as a single copy only as opposed to Leo Durocher, Bob Gibson and Pete Rose (all double printed). However, I only know about sheet "A" and not sheet "B"; I believe that each series was printed on two sheets each. Thus, I was surprised that he went for only $525 as a Dodger and HOFer as well. The Bob Gibson was printed twice as frequently as Sutton in 1969 and he went for $750. I would have to add that I don't how much better the centering could get in regards to future PSA 9's and PSA 10's of Don Sutton, we'll see.

Bob C,

Congratualtions on the those wonderful submissions and scarce high numbers. I still have high grade cards from 1969 that I have not gotten around to submitting. However, they are not of the caliber that you just submitted. I'm glad to see that you are still making your presence felt.

Ron

dude

Ron,

My understanding of the sheets is that there were really no short prints. Supposedly two sheets were made for each series with one each having a full series of cards plus another half of series of cards and the same was true of the other sheet with the second half of cards having no duplicates of the first sheet's extra half sheet of cards. So in short, two sheets would generate three sets of cards. This is something CrazySC told me one time and I have no reason to doubt his word.

Still with that being said, you still scored a great card. Again, congratulations!

RayBShotz

Ron - Congratulations from me also on the pick up. It is always good to see someone, with their heart really in a set, snag a coveted prize like that PSA 9 Sutton. You are a true collector.
RayBShotz

Mitochondria

Dude,

I don't know about the other sheet in the second series. The sheet I have has 12 rows of 11 cards each for a total of 132 cards. Two rows are double printed giving duplicates of 22 cards. My previous statement on this thread is an ERROR. In fact, Don Sutton is printed twice on this sheet and is in the same row as Bob Gibson. Pete Rose is just below Don Sutton. Willie Mays is the card on this sheet that only appears once. Again, I have no specific information on the other sheet in the 1969 second series. However, there would need to be more than two sheets if they are organized similarly in order to produce each card at the same frequency. I'll try to look into this matter further.

RayBShotz,

You are a true 1969 collector as well. You were the one who began the 1969 set registry! Nevertheless, thanks for the compliment.

Ron

dude

Mitochondria -- Thanks for that clarification. That's very interesting! That's also awesome that you have a complete, uncut sheet! Congratulations!