1986 Topps Football PSA 10's !!!!!!!
NHLfightguy
Posts: 525 ✭✭
Have finally hit ebay in a major way. Right along with 85 topps football, these are tough. I think they are tougher than 85 myself. I can't recall seeing this many surface before. Good mix of stars and commons. May have to treat myself to a couple as long as the big hitters don't come in and knock all the little jicky jacks out of the mix. Jt must have come across a nice box or something. I've broke some of this, not much. But if your first card was oc then rest were..........
0
Comments
Josh
The PSA population numbers, perception of scarcity, unopened material expense, RC selection, set design (popularity) and demand make it hard to determine which is the toughest to assemble in a PSA graded format. However, the numbers speak for themselves:
1984 Topps football
29,372 ... Total submissions
14,642 ... PSA 8s
05,192 ... PSA 9s
00,458 ... PSA 10s
1985 Topps football
08,176 ... Total submissions
04,733 ... PSA 8s
02,266 ... PSA 9s
00,146 ... PSA 10s
1986 Topps football
18,892 ... Total submissions
11,177 ... PSA 8s
02,626 ... PSA 9s
00,281 ... PSA 10s
It's interesting that there's an alarming number of PSA 8 material generated from each set ...
1984 ... 49.85% - PSA 8s
1985 ... 57.89% - PSA 8s
1986 ... 59.16% - PSA 8s
number of PSA 9 material generated from each set ...
1984 ... 17.68% - PSA 9s
1985 ... 27.72% - PSA 9s
1986 ... 13.90% - PSA 9s
number of PSA 10 material generated from each set ...
1984 ... 01.56% - PSA 10s
1985 ... 01.79% - PSA 10s
1986 ... 01.49% - PSA 10s
The '84 issue has the 2nd most popular set design, has the perception of printing (PD) & centering issues (OC), but is available, and generates a minimal to moderate PSA 10 common pricing ($25-$40). However, it's the most expensive product to breakdown and submit - vending and cello seem to produce solid results. Of the 5,192 PSA 9s, the Marino (RC), Elway (RC), Dickerson (RC), Green (RC) and Montana cards represent 65.56% of that total. WOW?! There are 2 current PSA Registry members aggressively pursuing this set; Quarterback Plus (79.04% - 9.39 GPA) and Museum of Sports History (56.57% - 9.26 GPA), with Jeff Barker's 1984 Topps Football Set (05.30% - 8.47 GPA). So, Quarterback and MOSH must have several PSA 10s tied up in their sets?
The '85 black-bordered issue generally has the most popular set design, the perception of scarcity and generates moderate to high PSA 10 common pricing ($60-$100) - some PSA 9s have recently sold at $35- $55. Yet, it's the least expensive product to breakdown and submit - vending and factory sets seems to produce the most favorable results. Of the 2,266 PSA 9s, the Marino (2nd yr), Montana, Moon (RC), Fryar (RC) and the Marino/Montana Passing leaders cards represent 27.32% of that total. Other than these cards, the remaining cards are fairly evenly graded throughout the set. There are 3 current PSA Registry members actively pursuing this set; Museum of Sports History (80.30% - 8.81 GPA), The Rider Collection (49.75% - 9.14 GPA) and Chris Renaud (32.83% - 8.22 GPA). There were 2 others that retired their respective sets in Spring. With the recent realized PSA 10 pricing (auction & private), DLS, 4 Sharp Corners and other dealers have been successful with selective submissions in quantity. The PSA 9 and PSA 10 PSA Population numbers have significantly increased in the previous 4-5 months. The toughest cards from this set are the Walter Payton and John Elway in PSA 9 condition.
The '86 issue is generally considered the least popular set design, has the perception of mild scarcity, centering issues (OC) & chipping and generates a moderate PSA 10 common pricing ($40-$60) - PSA 9s have recently sold at $5- $15. Yet, it's the 2nd most expensive product to breakdown and submit. Of the 2,626 PSA 9s, the Rice (RC), Marino, Elway, Reed (RC) and Smith (RC) cards represent 40.86% of that total. Other than these cards, the remaining non-RC cards are graded in single digits throughout the set. There is 1 current PSA Registry member agressively pursuing this set; yet again? ... Museum of Sports History (79.04% - 9.35 GPA). The toughest cards from this set appears to be the Steve Young (RC) and Reggie White (RC) in PSA 9 condition. MOSH's set GPA of 9.35 is amazing!
Thanks,
Marcus
Nick
Reap the whirlwind.
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Great analysis! I think '84 and to a lesser extent '86 suffer from submission bias. Elway, Marino, and Rice are worth getting slabbed if you expect to get an 8, while no card in '85 is. How do the numbers play out if you remove those three?
Nick,
There are now 22 nines and 3 tens of the '85 Allen base card. It seems all of the Allen collectors and the '85 set collectors already have one in 9 or 10, so there's no interest left. $10 is still painfully cheap though, especially since I paid $40 for mine
Joe
Nick
Reap the whirlwind.
Need to buy something for the wife or girlfriend? Check out Vintage Designer Clothing.
045 DAN MARINO
0075 ... PSA 7
0000 ... PSA 7Q
0828 ... PSA 8
0028 ... PSA 8Q
0251 ... PSA 9
0002 ... PSA 9Q
0022 ... PSA 10
1230 ... TOTAL Submission
112 JOHN ELWAY
0066 ... PSA 7
0003 ... PSA 7Q
0656 ... PSA 8
0035 ... PSA 8Q
0130 ... PSA 9
0010 ... PSA 9Q
0002 ... PSA 10
0912 ... TOTAL Submission
161 JERRY RICE
1998 ... PSA 7
0044 ... PSA 7Q
6736 ... PSA 8
0337 ... PSA 8Q
0465 ... PSA 9
0021 ... PSA 9Q
0036 ... PSA 10
9915 ... TOTAL Submission
So of the overall set submission total, these Big 3 cards represent 68.38% PSA 8s (7643/11,177), 32.22% PSA 9s (846/2,626) and 21.35% PSA 10s (60/281). I did not include the PSA 8 & 9 Qualifiers in these numbers, but as you can see they're significant.
If you then remove the Big 3, here are the revised numbers for the remainder of the set:
1986 Topps football (OLD)
18,892 ... TOTAL Submissions
11,177 ... PSA 8s
02,626 ... PSA 9s
00,281 ... PSA 10s
59.16% - PSA 8s
13.90% - PSA 9s
01.49% - PSA 10s
1986 Topps football (NEW minus Big 3)
10,343 ... TOTAL Submissions
03,534 ... PSA 8s
01,780 ... PSA 9s
00,221 ... PSA 10s
34.17% - PSA 8s
17.21% - PSA 9s
02.14% - PSA 10s
The PSA 8 ratio decreases, PSA 9 and PSA 10 ratio both improve.
I guess it's simply the lack of popularity of the '86 set? The '86 PSA 9s just don't sell for a premium, but most push the centering allowance.
That's a large number of Rice (RC) in PSA 8. In fact, the SMR just lowered the PSA 8 value to $50, yet the PSA 9 value is only $185 (as of June 21st). The Rice (RC) in PSA 9 is underrated in my opinion.
Thanks,
Marcus
You are correct, the '85 selective submission that's occurring is out of respect for the set's tough black borders. They have to make sure it's a legitimate PSA 9, otherwise they lose money. One smart thing DLS and 4 Sharp Corners are doing is targeting the lower population cards within the set.
Because of the population increase, many of these cards were sold in bunches over a short period of time - less competition. Although many do not collect the '85 set as a whole, there are several that collect individual player and team sets from this year.
It's interesting that the SMR currently reflects '85 PSA 10 common values and not '84 or '86.
Marcus
Loth
loth
Sixdart, those numbers are pretty much what I expected. Thanks!
Joe
<< <i>submission bias >>
Great phrase, I like it.
Sorry to interupt this thread. Marcus, I have someone else that may want one of the two cards we were talking about.
Please respond if you have a minute either way. I want to make sure you had a chance. THANKS
Jeremy
I will PM tonight.
Is your "second string" inventory up-to-date? I was going to review what others you had ... I may need to upgrade a card or two.
Thanks,
Marcus
I also have to do an inventory, I've come across a couple errors and I hope there are none on the two we were talking about.
Look forward to talking more. Jeremy
Nick
Reap the whirlwind.
Need to buy something for the wife or girlfriend? Check out Vintage Designer Clothing.
Jeff,
I saw that as well.
Thanks to Sixdart for making it interesting. For a minute I thought maybe I was bidding on PSA 9s they were so low.
For the record I missed by just a few cents on the Passing Leader. And if not for the high bidder, I would have gotten that Reggie White for next to nothing. Thing is, I've submitted 100s and 100s of 1986 FB and gotton exactly 2 PSA 10s. My bids on most of those were much much higger. I don't expect them to last long. I posted them to the store last night and I have an email about the Hampton & Lance Smith this morning.
Jeremy
(Those cards are making we eager to so more 1986 PSA 10s now, if you have them list them up!)
Excellent pick ups ... right time - right price. I think a few people didn't bid because they'd be priced out by snipes? He should've listed these cards in increments vs. all at once. I think most were suprised with the end results.
Had I been serious about the set, the auctions would have been much more interesting?
Marcus
Chad
1985 PSA 10s are on a LOT of peoples want lists over here.
But I haven't finished in the top three on a 1985 in a while.
Chad, funny how I suggested you offer less for the Dorsett, but I would have priced it higher had it been my own.
They needed (or wanted) to sell those Dorsett right away and so accepted a price between wholesale and retail.
Thing is, when Dealers/Sellers sell on eBay - they most the time need the money now, to pay for more grading.
But with a dealer/seller that doesn't normally sell on eBay, they can wait for the right price and person.
Is there a word to describe a price realized between Wholesale and Retail?
Maybe "Priced to Market"?
Jeremy
AZVIKE purchased the DENT RC PSA 10 for a $300 buy-it-now. I hesitiated because 4 Sharp listed around 8 key '85 PSA 10s at that time. I thought I had more time on that one?
But back to the Moon, I don't think it will ever drop much past the $350 level just because it is one of the big three that year.
Yes I saw the Dent, and thought about it myself. $300 is reasonable.
I think also those 1986 PSA 10s would have gone for much more had they been 1/1s. But I suppose that goes without saying.
Jeremy
The Marino was a pop 1/2 PSA 10 and is now a pop 1/8 within 3 months. It was selling for more than his PSA 10 RC!
I was disappointed that the '86 Butler PSA 10 ended early. I was planning on throwing in a nice bid, probably not nice enough to win with all the interest, but still.
I noticed that the '85 Topps Walter Payton PSA 9 ended without meeting the reserve. Any idea what 4_sharp-corners was hoping to get? The last time I checked the pop report there were no 9's or 10's. Apparently there are 2 9's now, are there any 10's? Thoughts on what these should sell for?
$399 was a nice bid Marcus - going to bid again?
Jeremy
References:
Onlychild, Ahmanfan, fabfrank, wufdude, jradke, Reese, Jasp, thenavarro
E-Bay id: greg_n_meg
There have been 3 more Dent RC recently graded PSA 9 (in 1 batch - 4 Sharp or DLS?). They last PSA 9 sold for over $100 on EBAY ... early spring. I would be happy with a high-end PSA 9, but that PSA 10 was a beauty.
Jeremy, yes I will be bidding on the Marino. The PSA 10 grade is still tough on that card (to overall submission ratio), but having the population go from 1/2 to 1/8 so quickly scares me a little. I wanted one earlier, however I couldn't justify paying more than his PSA 10 RC card price.
It would be interesting to see where these cards reside on an uncut sheet?
<< <i>Question - who is the "Museum of Sports History". His collection is amazing.... >>
Museum of Sports History thread
MOSH ("Museum of Sports History") is an organization or group of people putting a sports card museum together. They range from modern to vintage, over various sports and can bid very aggressively with snipes. They will also purchase privately and use the EBAY buy-it-now option for accurate to sometimes high prices. I can't could how many auctions that I've lost to them/him? The weird thing is that the bid sporadically on auctions ... you never know what the have and when they'll bid?!