Interesting thread and some valid arguments have been made...
1. CC Dollars will always attract more interest for many reasons, including the short set concept, but many coin collectors may not see the interest in collectibles for the "Old West". CC Dollars are still perhaps one of the best ties to the old west.
2. The CC Mint for Morgans is like the D and C mint mark for the Liberty Head gold series up to the $5 Denomination. Most collectors do not seem interested in some of the Philly gold that is constantly being overlooked. The same seems true for Morgans, thus the 1891 and 1904 remain underappreciated in terms of rarity in MS65 and higher grades except by the serious Morgan collectors. Look at the 1859 $5 and compare the price to its mintmarked counterparts and the bottom line is there seems to be little or no demand... Collectors love CC Morgans and even though the pops are high, these coins are easily promoted and the demand is high.
3. I am alittle surprised that no collector mentioned the scarcity of the 1880-cc reverse of 1878 in MS65 and higher. This is a tough coin.
4. Look at the surviving pop of the CC Morgans by date in terms of what was found in the govt sales. The 1890-cc and 1892-cc were dates that didn't show up in quantity. These dates are tougher than one may think... even if you look at the pop reports.
5. The 1879-cc in original high end circ. is tougher than most collectors think. While the coin may be considered by some to be overvalued in MS64, it isn't in ef45.
6. The 1893-cc has moved across the board because of demand. Even at 1,000 in ef... how often do you see a nice original that hasn't been enhanced or played with? I'm SORRY but this move is because the coin was tough to begin with and with the increased demand, I think the value has finally caught up with reality. (the same can be said for the 1894, but that is the subject for a different thread).
7. Now lets talk about the 1889-cc. Yes it has gone up in value, but perhaps the increases will bring more examples of this date onto the market. This date will and should flat line for awhile, but I think it will go higher.
8. The biggest problem with Morgans is that certain dates have not experienced gains that a serious collector of the series would expect. The problem is that certain dates such as the 1904 or 1891 (MS64 and higher) just cannot be promoted the way the CC Morgans can...
9. If you think CC Morgans are priced high know, just wait until the interest really takes off in the VAMS. Eventually, we can really talk rarity, but we are not quite there yet...this will be a different thread another time.
10. There are cycles and the CC market has appreciated significantly and there are going to be big bumps along the way... part of this is promotion and hype, part is new collector interest and even collectors that are not coin collectors, but love the old west, and the fact that the coin market has changed with ebay and the internet.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
<< <i>Look at the surviving pop of the CC Morgans by date in terms of what was found in the govt sales. The 1890-cc and 1892-cc were dates that didn't show up in quantity. These dates are tougher than one may think... even if you look at the pop reports. >>
Those dates didn't show up in the GSA sales because they had been released prior to the Treasury halting the release. Look at the population of these two dates at PCGS and NGC. They are not rare.
In any event, I am already seeing signs of the beginning of the end for the Morgan price boom. Several complete sets have been put up for sale. I have seen coins sitting in dealer's inventories for weeks. One comes to mind, a PCGS MS63 92-CC that has been sitting on a dealer's website for nearly a month at $1750. And it is nice for a 63. I think the prices have been pushed beyond what people want to pay on a lot of dates.
I really don't think I disagree with you completely on this. The 1892-cc and the 1890-cc are not rare... its just that the demand for these dates has increased... BTW, when was the last time you saw a completely original choice EF 1892-CC Morgan? Part of what is driving this date higher is the fact that there are not many decent high end original circulated examples... These two dates were released earlier, as you said, and the surviving MS population is not as high as the 1881-CC or 1885-CC which were found in significant quantities (off hand, I am not sure of the exact number, but it could be in excess of excess of 75,000 for each date in MS)... I agree $1,750 is alittle steep for an 1892-cc in 63, but what are the alternatives to getting this date in an acceptable grade?
Not to change the subject too much, but I bought my 1896-s Morgan in MS63 years ago because I could not find a lower grade that I found acceptable. Look at the pop reports for the 1896-s in AU... I haven't lately, but the number was really low about 3-4 years ago and I imagine the AU pop grade on a 1892-cc is fairly low too, but that may change because of the price increases.
I will concede that the 1890-cc is available in ef and even unc and can be found without a significant effort, but it still is not as common as many other CC Morgans in MS63 and higher.
There will be additional upward moves for CC Morgans. However, some declines are likely within the next two years... especially if and when interest rates move up. Now whether they end up higher or lower from where they stand today, 2 years from now, is difficult to predict.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I always think it is interesting when we make assertions like "$1750 is a little steep for an 1892-CC in MS63" ... why? why shouldn't the price be $375, or $5689.41 ?? Coin values are bizarre and aribitrary, but are ultimately the result of supply and demand. Sometimes the supply is manipulated (hoarding, "making" of new slabs), and sometimes the demand is manipulated (hype and promotions, and all kinds of other crap that goes on). So the supply and demand may be artificial, but they are the factors that determine price. The demand may be based on a slab grade, a "look" like DMPL, or a perception of quality. How do you know that $1750 is steep for an 1892-CC in MS63? Just because the CDN says so? Auction records? Were those coins identical in every way to the one currently offered?
I recently paid $3600 for a beautifully toned 1892-CC PCGS MS64. Was that too much? Was it a bargain? Well, there simply have not been any others to be bought at that level of eye appeal and quality. I decided to buy the coin. Who is to say whether I paid the right price? Sometimes I think the prices dealers are asking me are OUTRAGEOUS and I am offended by the apparent greed, and other times I pay a strong premium, or even a multiple of sheet, and I think that I got a bargain !!! Earlier in the year I passed on an 1879-CC PCGS MS65 with a beautiful crescent of cobalt blue toning on the obverse. I think the price was $17K or thereabouts. Today that would be a steal ... perhaps tomorrow the coin will be worth half. Isn't it all arbitrary and absurd ??????
A thing is only worth what someone is willing to pay you for it ... so who knows ?
My comment about the 1,750 being alittle sttep for an 1892-cc in 63 is predicated on a typical example and not one that I would call quality for the grade or one that has excellent original color. Each coin really has to be examined on its own merits in terms of quality, strike, eye appeal etc...
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I've been at work for about 20 hrs, but to answer Kaz6 question on why, if the internet has been around for 10+ years, how do I justify my statement that the price surge seen in the past year is not a bubble and why it won't be a bubble...
#1) E-Bay and Paypal are now one company with unpresidented security and ease of purchasing that gives buyers some piece of mind. (I never buy anything that I can't use PayPal on). I've noticed that sellers that accept pay pal get far more bidders and far more for their coins. Up until last year, I didn't trust the internet for anything and I know lots of friends who all feel the same way.
#2) Many parts of the world, including Hawaii and the Orient have been in an horrible recession and economic slump since 1990 and the gulf war. The Japanese real estate buble that blew up Hawaii's and California's economy in 1990 - 1996 has just in the past year been blown away with the awesome low interest rates. The west coast and the Pacific basin is booming and flush with spendable cash that we haven't had in 10 years. Bring on the coins, White, Colored, CC, - I don't care. I'm just having fun collecting with my Grandkids and I don't really care if you think I'm paying too much!
#3) If you don't study the world, you may not understand that when 2 billion Chinese come on line via the opening of Hong Kong as a "favored trading partner" of America...the economy of America will boom to highs that we haven't seen before. This country, is not like Russia as a communist country. They have a very large upper middle class that travels, spends money, buy things, owns property and loves American things... and I'll bet a few of those BILLION + people will collect coins.
Again, it would be a bubble if you view the world like it was in 1990 - 2000, but this is not the same world as a few year's ago. E-Bay is the #1 most sucessfull .com in the world and the world is opening up to it.
I'm not in this as an "investor" - I collected coins when I was a teenager in the 60's and loved it. When I moved to Hawaii I stopped because their wasn't any safe way to buy. Now it's safe again and this is the wave of the future.
I can understand all the 'old timers' frustration with this market.... but I've said it before, you're all going to miss the boat if you try to wait for another big bursting bubble. Prices may adjust a little, but not the level you think it will.
( note that Art, cars, and other collectables have all seen similar jumps, and they aren't going down any time soon either)
Well, I guess we are just going to disagree. I predict that sometime in the next couple of years, you will see at least a 20% correction in the prices of Carson City Morgans. I've bookmarked this thread so I can pull it back up when this happens.
20% down in the near market... maybe for the toned market and only because I don't see the reason for it being as high as it is...
But for the good, old standard White / PCGS or NGC or ANACS Slabble Morgans.... no way!
Wanna Bet? Two years from July 4, 2004? I say the market continues up about 20 - 30% across the board with much larger raises in the higher and expensive side ($2000.00 +) --
I've got a couple of cheap Morgan's I could use for the bet....
You know I thought the same thing about the stock market a few years ago before it tanked. Tons of $$ going into mutual funds that the fund managers would "HAVE TO DO SOMETHING" with. This should have kept stock prices high with all of the competition for the good stuff; right? Well the coin market and the stock market DO NOT move up or down of their own free will. People make decisions to buy and sell for whatever reason and these buy/sell decisions are what move the market.
<< <i>You're right, in a year or two the speculator's bubble will have burst and these coins will be back where they belong considering their populations. >>
Hundreds of people buying these coins is a speculation? Do you mean promotion? Do you know what a promotion is? Tom >>
Ahh the yin and yang of collecting. What's cool about this duel is that one person is 100% correct, and the other is 100% wrong. What's the bummer is, I don't know which is which, so I don't know whether to buy or sell
Don't forget the TRILLIONS of dollars of liquidity that has been pumped into the markets for consumption to keep the world's finances afloat. The money has to go somewhere. And what is no longer going into "safe" () mutual funds is finding its way into CC morgans, moderns, proof gold, not to mention art, cars, pez dispensers and the like. Personally, I feel the huge amount of money brought to bear on the markets over the past several years is the real reason we have such a strong coin market going on. Even with ebay, you need people with free cash to spend to keep it moving up. And this available money has been created out of thin air to boot.
I looked at several PCGS boxes of CC morgans yesterday that have just been sitting idle at my dealer's shop. They aren't selling, even the PQ ones in grades of 62 to 65. But he's also happy keeping them as the prices keep escalating. It would seem reasonable that a portion of the demand is coming from promotors.
Comments
1. CC Dollars will always attract more interest for many reasons, including the short set concept, but many coin collectors may not see the interest in collectibles for the "Old West". CC Dollars are still perhaps one of the best ties to the old west.
2. The CC Mint for Morgans is like the D and C mint mark for the Liberty Head gold series up to the $5 Denomination. Most collectors do not seem interested in some of the Philly gold that is constantly being overlooked. The same seems true for Morgans, thus the 1891 and 1904 remain underappreciated in terms of rarity in MS65 and higher grades except by the serious Morgan collectors. Look at the 1859 $5 and compare the price to its mintmarked counterparts and the bottom line is there seems to be little or no demand... Collectors love CC Morgans and even though the pops are high, these coins are easily promoted and the demand is high.
3. I am alittle surprised that no collector mentioned the scarcity of the 1880-cc reverse of 1878 in MS65 and higher. This is a tough coin.
4. Look at the surviving pop of the CC Morgans by date in terms of what was found in the govt sales. The 1890-cc and 1892-cc were dates that didn't show up in quantity. These dates are tougher than one may think... even if you look at the pop reports.
5. The 1879-cc in original high end circ. is tougher than most collectors think. While the coin may be considered by some to be overvalued in MS64, it isn't in ef45.
6. The 1893-cc has moved across the board because of demand. Even at 1,000 in ef... how often do you see a nice original that hasn't been enhanced or played with? I'm SORRY but this move is because the coin was tough to begin with and with the increased demand, I think the value has finally caught up with reality. (the same can be said for the 1894, but that is the subject for a different thread).
7. Now lets talk about the 1889-cc. Yes it has gone up in value, but perhaps the increases will bring more examples of this date onto the market. This date will and should flat line for awhile, but I think it will go higher.
8. The biggest problem with Morgans is that certain dates have not experienced gains that a serious collector of the series would expect. The problem is that certain dates such as the 1904 or 1891 (MS64 and higher) just cannot be promoted the way the CC Morgans can...
9. If you think CC Morgans are priced high know, just wait until the interest really takes off in the VAMS. Eventually, we can really talk rarity, but we are not quite there yet...this will be a different thread another time.
10. There are cycles and the CC market has appreciated significantly and there are going to be big bumps along the way... part of this is promotion and hype, part is new collector interest and even collectors that are not coin collectors, but love the old west, and the fact that the coin market has changed with ebay and the internet.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
<< <i>Look at the surviving pop of the CC Morgans by date in terms of what was found in the govt sales. The 1890-cc and 1892-cc were dates that didn't show up in quantity. These dates are tougher than one may think... even if you look at the pop reports. >>
Those dates didn't show up in the GSA sales because they had been released prior to the Treasury halting the release. Look at the population of these two dates at PCGS and NGC. They are not rare.
In any event, I am already seeing signs of the beginning of the end for the Morgan price boom. Several complete sets have been put up for sale. I have seen coins sitting in dealer's inventories for weeks. One comes to mind, a PCGS MS63 92-CC that has been sitting on a dealer's website for nearly a month at $1750. And it is nice for a 63. I think the prices have been pushed beyond what people want to pay on a lot of dates.
I really don't think I disagree with you completely on this. The 1892-cc and the 1890-cc are not rare... its just that the demand for these dates has increased... BTW, when was the last time you saw a completely original choice EF 1892-CC Morgan? Part of what is driving this date higher is the fact that there are not many decent high end original circulated examples... These two dates were released earlier, as you said, and the surviving MS population is not as high as the 1881-CC or 1885-CC which were found in significant quantities (off hand, I am not sure of the exact number, but it could be in excess of excess of 75,000 for each date in MS)... I agree $1,750 is alittle steep for an 1892-cc in 63, but what are the alternatives to getting this date in an acceptable grade?
Not to change the subject too much, but I bought my 1896-s Morgan in MS63 years ago because I could not find a lower grade that I found acceptable. Look at the pop reports for the 1896-s in AU... I haven't lately, but the number was really low about 3-4 years ago and I imagine the AU pop grade on a 1892-cc is fairly low too, but that may change because of the price increases.
I will concede that the 1890-cc is available in ef and even unc and can be found without a significant effort, but it still is not as common as many other CC Morgans in MS63 and higher.
There will be additional upward moves for CC Morgans. However, some declines are likely within the next two years... especially if and when interest rates move up. Now whether they end up higher or lower from where they stand today, 2 years from now, is difficult to predict.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I recently paid $3600 for a beautifully toned 1892-CC PCGS MS64. Was that too much? Was it a bargain? Well, there simply have not been any others to be bought at that level of eye appeal and quality. I decided to buy the coin. Who is to say whether I paid the right price? Sometimes I think the prices dealers are asking me are OUTRAGEOUS and I am offended by the apparent greed, and other times I pay a strong premium, or even a multiple of sheet, and I think that I got a bargain !!! Earlier in the year I passed on an 1879-CC PCGS MS65 with a beautiful crescent of cobalt blue toning on the obverse. I think the price was $17K or thereabouts. Today that would be a steal ... perhaps tomorrow the coin will be worth half. Isn't it all arbitrary and absurd ??????
A thing is only worth what someone is willing to pay you for it ... so who knows ?
Best,
Sunnywood
Sunnywood's Rainbow-Toned Morgans (Retired)
Sunnywood's Barber Quarters (Retired)
My comment about the 1,750 being alittle sttep for an 1892-cc in 63 is predicated on a typical example and not one that I would call quality for the grade or one that has excellent original color. Each coin really has to be examined on its own merits in terms of quality, strike, eye appeal etc...
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I've been at work for about 20 hrs, but to answer Kaz6 question on why, if the internet has been around for 10+ years, how do I justify my statement that the price surge seen in the past year is not a bubble and why it won't be a bubble...
#1) E-Bay and Paypal are now one company with unpresidented security and ease of purchasing that gives buyers some piece of mind. (I never buy anything that I can't use PayPal on). I've noticed that sellers that accept pay pal get far more bidders and far more for their coins. Up until last year, I didn't trust the internet for anything and I know lots of friends who all feel the same way.
#2) Many parts of the world, including Hawaii and the Orient have been in an horrible recession and economic slump since 1990 and the gulf war. The Japanese real estate buble that blew up Hawaii's and California's economy in 1990 - 1996 has just in the past year been blown away with the awesome low interest rates. The west coast and the Pacific basin is booming and flush with spendable cash that we haven't had in 10 years. Bring on the coins, White, Colored, CC, - I don't care. I'm just having fun collecting with my Grandkids and I don't really care if you think I'm paying too much!
#3) If you don't study the world, you may not understand that when 2 billion Chinese come on line via the opening of Hong Kong as a "favored trading partner" of America...the economy of America will boom to highs that we haven't seen before. This country, is not like Russia as a communist country. They have a very large upper middle class that travels, spends money, buy things, owns property and loves American things... and I'll bet a few of those BILLION + people will collect coins.
Again, it would be a bubble if you view the world like it was in 1990 - 2000, but this is not the same world as a few year's ago. E-Bay is the #1 most sucessfull .com in the world and the world is opening up to it.
I'm not in this as an "investor" - I collected coins when I was a teenager in the 60's and loved it. When I moved to Hawaii I stopped because their wasn't any safe way to buy. Now it's safe again and this is the wave of the future.
I can understand all the 'old timers' frustration with this market.... but I've said it before, you're all going to miss the boat if you try to wait for another big bursting bubble. Prices may adjust a little, but not the level you think it will.
( note that Art, cars, and other collectables have all seen similar jumps, and they aren't going down any time soon either)
But for the good, old standard White / PCGS or NGC or ANACS Slabble Morgans.... no way!
Wanna Bet? Two years from July 4, 2004? I say the market continues up about 20 - 30% across the board with much larger raises in the higher and expensive side ($2000.00 +) --
I've got a couple of cheap Morgan's I could use for the bet....
<< <i>
<< <i>You're right, in a year or two the speculator's bubble will have burst and these coins will be back where they belong considering their populations. >>
Hundreds of people buying these coins is a speculation? Do you mean promotion? Do you know what a promotion is? Tom >>
Ahh the yin and yang of collecting. What's cool about this duel is that one person is 100% correct, and the other is 100% wrong. What's the bummer is, I don't know which is which, so I don't know whether to buy or sell
The Lincoln cent store:
http://www.lincolncent.com
My numismatic art work:
http://www.cdaughtrey.com
USAF veteran, 1986-1996 :: support our troops - the American way.
I looked at several PCGS boxes of CC morgans yesterday that have just been sitting idle at my dealer's shop. They aren't selling, even the PQ ones in grades of 62 to 65. But he's also happy keeping them as the prices keep escalating. It would seem reasonable that a portion of the demand is coming from promotors.
roadrunner