Proof that the market is saturated and heading downwards...

TheRoach

Remember back in like 1997-98 or so when Upper Deck first came out with the GU Jersey cards in basketball? I remember a guy at a show in Rosemont ( probably the SportsFest ), having like 20 or so different ones. He was selling the Tony Kukoc for like 4150, the Grant Hill for like $300, Pippen for like $300 ( Chicago ), etc.. I was so envious. I was amazed he had so many tough cards. The odds back then were like 1:2500 packs for any single GU Jersey card.

The cards weren't numbered at all, but they still demanded big bucks when sold. They still have some luster left since they were the first GU card pretty much. Anyway, imagine back then if they made a Julius Erving GU card? It would have commanded like $1,200-$1,500 easily!! It would have had the same smaller square swatch also.

Here we are in 2004, and I pulled a Dr. J game used jersey card from a pack of Ex-quis-sh*t basketball the other day which is numbered out of just 75 copies on the front. The swatch is FREAKIN' HUGE!!! Nice card that is limited to only 75 in the world, but the sad truth is that this very card will only command about $25-$30 on Ebay now. Go figure.

I was thinking the same thing about the other cards I pulled. I have a nice Amare Stoudemire Limited Logos Auto/Patch card. Now normally, this would be a PULL OUT OF PACK/SH*T YOUR PANTS card, but in this case it is a $35 card on Ebay ( if that ). It has a HUGE patch with 3/4 of the letter "O" from his name and part of the "U". It's also autographed by Stoudemire and limited to like 75 copies also.

It's unreal how the hobby has taken the plunge. Where is it headed? You can't get any lower than a 1/1, and they have already beaten that horse. I think we are just going to wake up one day, and the market is going to crash. The SPORTSCARD DEPRESSION of 2004. People that are heavily invested in graded modern will be jumping out of windows, marriages will fail, gas prices will skyrocket, every fire hydrant will be open and blasting water out of it, random fires, loose papers blowing throughout the streets, angry and concerned store owners would be camped out in front of their business with baseball bat in hand to fight off the riots, soldiers wearing gas masks and equipped with high powered rifles would be patrolling each town, etc..

Ok, maybe I got carried away. But you all know what I am saying. And if you haven't been able to tell, Yes - I am still bitter about my Ex-quis-sh*t box break.




TheRoach

WinPitcher

that is why one is to buy what they like. collect for fun and stay away from artificially created scarcity.

parrotpaul

Upper Deck and its printing presses hurt the business way back in the early 1990's. I remember buying two cases of the first UD basketball 92-93, I think. I thought I had struck pure gold at shows. I happened to be the only one with the cards, and people were giving me $150 a box...in those days a small fortune...especially when we were selling 90 Hoops with MJ autographs (we could mail them and Jordan would sign and they would come back) for $5.

TheRoach

<< <i>Upper Deck and its printing presses hurt the business way back in the early 1990's. I remember buying two cases of the first UD basketball 92-93, I think. I thought I had struck pure gold at shows. I happened to be the only one with the cards, and people were giving me $150 a box...in those days a small fortune...especially when we were selling 90 Hoops with MJ autographs (we could mail them and Jordan would sign and they would come back) for $5. >>



Wait, ya mean that the Larry Johnson and Dikembe Mutombo rookies aren't still commanding $20 a piece? What about the Jerry West Herose "Header" card? I once got like $25 for it. It was just a card with no picture on it. It was the card you placed on top of your Heroes insert set. What a joke!



TheRoach

parrotpaul

<< <i>

<< <i>Upper Deck and its printing presses hurt the business way back in the early 1990's. I remember buying two cases of the first UD basketball 92-93, I think. I thought I had struck pure gold at shows. I happened to be the only one with the cards, and people were giving me $150 a box...in those days a small fortune...especially when we were selling 90 Hoops with MJ autographs (we could mail them and Jordan would sign and they would come back) for $5. >>



Wait, ya mean that the Larry Johnson and Dikembe Mutombo rookies aren't still commanding $20 a piece? What about the Jerry West Herose "Header" card? I once got like $25 for it. It was just a card with no picture on it. It was the card you placed on top of your Heroes insert set. What a joke!

TheRoach

>>



That's the one.....I also remember buying some UD Hockey. I ripped it and each pack had two Hull Heroes. Again, I thought I struck gold....I think I still have most of those cards. They're fun to scale at a hat during awful Lakers games. I think I had a higher field goal percentage than the Lakers did in the playoffs...LOL

CON40

Roach;

The GU craze is over. Most collectors are content getting a couple GU cards of their favorite players and that's it. Some players have 100 different GU cards. Who has the time and resources to collect them all? So, they pick and choose. Combine that with the fact that the luster of pulling these cards from packs is now gone and every card shop is littered with GU stuff in the showcase.

I think the card companies are going to have to come up with some new marketing gimmick (maybe redemption cards for real GU memorabilia - gloves, jereseys, caps) to capture collector's interests again.

fsjeter

I think Upperdeck tried inserting redemption cards for actual game used and autographed memoribilia in one if their football products. I can't remember if it was 2002 or 2003. I don't think that went over too well. The cards were inserted 1/case on average. Not great odds.

Scott

jrdolan

In a world where Albert Pujols has more different 2001 rookie cards than he has fingers and toes, you have to wonder how long this glut of companies making cards can sustain itself. And what will happen to the unimaginable tonnage of unopened modern material.

parrotpaul

<< <i>In a world where Albert Pujols has more different 2001 rookie cards than he has fingers and toes, you have to wonder how long this glut of companies making cards can sustain itself. And what will happen to the unimaginable tonnage of unopened modern material. >>



Didn't we wonder that back in the early 1990's also? eBay has proven to be the bottom line for the ultimate value of a card.

ctsoxfan

I am still amazed that I got a Bosh RC patch from Exquisite for $21.00. Not his true RC perhaps, but a rookie patch from a $500 per pack line should command more than that, should'nt it?

I also sold a lot of Ultimate Collection singles on Ebay last week. Talk about discouraging...makes you wonder why Beckett even publishes its ridiculous price guide. Beckett says my Kobe jersey /200 is worth $80, I get $23. Beckett says my T-Mac auto is worth $100, I get $40. And, those were the good sales!

Yet, as crazy as this is, Exquisite boxes are hotter than ever. Go figure.

Golfcollector

And now for my "other side of the coin" arguement.

The increase in production has made these cards more affordable to the collector. I have assembled complete sets of golf jersey game used cards for fractions of what they cost when they were first released, plus they are very attractive cards as well.

I personally think they are great if affordable for the collector

Dave

zsz70

The No spin zone says...

A. Collect what you like
B. Don't invest in new cards or you will jump out of buildings tomorrow
C. Card collecting IS NOT THE stock market


Card collecting is about FUN

Those who don't realize this are spinning their
own web, only to be caught in it tomorrow.

The love of money is the root of all evil.

fsjeter

I personally think they are great if affordable for the collector.

This is a "Catch-22." They are affordable if you are the one buying singles, they are a waste if you are the one buying boxes (barring the "windfall" pack pulls like the Kobe/Lebron). I doubt, even with Eli Manning, Upper Deck will be able to pull Exquisite off in Football or any other Sport for that matter. Lebron and Mellow have fueled that product. I bought an Exquisite Allen Iverson Single Patch card for my son for $35. That beats the hell out of buying the pack for $500 and not getting anything. I say let the dealers crack open as much of that as they want and I'll buy the singles I want. That product is basically for thrill seakers and more often than not, they are disappointed because they didn't pull that 5 or 6 figure card!

Scott

TCC

<< <i>Roach;

The GU craze is over. Most collectors are content getting a couple GU cards of their favorite players and that's it. Some players have 100 different GU cards. Who has the time and resources to collect them all? So, they pick and choose. Combine that with the fact that the luster of pulling these cards from packs is now gone and every card shop is littered with GU stuff in the showcase.

I think the card companies are going to have to come up with some new marketing gimmick (maybe redemption cards for real GU memorabilia - gloves, jereseys, caps) to capture collector's interests again. >>



You asked for it, the companies deliver it...

Fleer just announced a redemption this week for memorabilia featuring items from the NBA Draft.

Click here for the news release.

-Bob

helionaut

The hobby hasn't taken a plunge, or a dive, or a crash, or anything else. The money has simply shifted to other things, some more reliable, or else even more limited, glitzier, shorter-printed cards. Seventy-five copies isn't that limited anymore. Most people have realized that what was made in the past stays in the past, and that's where value is. Every year there are squinky new GU/auto/insert/serial numbered cards, tons of great new cards being made. A few inserts hit the right spot and retain value pretty well (UD's 500 HR club bats, for example). But every year is someone's only rookie year. Every year there are maybe 1 or 2 really memorable sets that were done exactly right. As time moves on, it stays that player's rookie card, and that set is still a must-have. Whatever value is attached to rookie cards for whatever reason, it stays. So while a Ruth bat card is always a Ruth bat card, it will be one of an ever-increasing number of similar cards, and so the value is diluted.

Sure, an Exquisite Dr. J jersey card in 1997 would be worth thousands, but we didn't have $500 packs in 1997, so it wouldn't have existed. When HOFer GU cards started coming out, like around 1999-2000 with sets like UD Legends, prices weren't out of hand, like thousands for a Ryan jersey or whatever. I remember when 1997 Donruss Signature had their Significant Signatures set, great names numbered to just 2000, and they were selling for a lot lower than I expected. When they came out, a Stan Musial autograph booked for only $80, while Paul Konerko booked for $40. Something was very wrong there.

However, it's a great thing for the collector who doesn't rip boxes in order to pull these cards. Yes, a card pulled is sweeter than a card won on ebay, but usually much more expensive, too.

KallMaloneSay

Don't forget that we don't have anywhere near the economy that we had from 1997-2000. That does play a very major role if the average Joe has twice as much disposable income. My solution; make a Constitutional Amendment that says anyone by the name of Bill Clinton or Franklin Rosevelt can run for unlimited presidential terms.
Jason

Rainman

I think it is a tad extreme to say ‘People that are heavily invested in graded modern will be jumping out of windows, marriages will fail, gas prices will skyrocket, every fire hydrant will be open and blasting water out of it, random fires, loose papers blowing throughout the streets, angry and concerned store owners would be camped out in front of their business with baseball bat in hand to fight off the riots, soldiers wearing gas masks and equipped with high powered rifles would be patrolling each town, etc’ but I agree that some people may have some issues w/managing their money. However, that is true w/any other ‘vice’- i.e., gambling (whether it’s the casino or lotto), stock investing (.coms anyone?), etc. Some people do not know when to say when. I have a certain price limit I will spend on cards/new boxes and I stick to it pretty rigorously. Hence why I did not buy Exqui*it at $500+/pack. Seriously, what card could you pull that would reap even 1/4 of what you paid for the pack?

I think one problem is that companies (namely UD) have sacrificed quality control (WHY does UD have an inordinate amount of duplicates in EVERY box I open? In the 2 SPA MLB boxes I opened, I probably got 20+ duplicate cards, w/at least 2 packs having the SAME sequence/base cards!) for greed.

Another problem is the huge # of products being released. W/the Lebron hype, UD (and other cos.) must have released at least 2-3 boxes/week (if not more), none of which could be had for < $100 at your local card shop.

Another problem is the umpteen parallels. See Diamond Kings for an example. While I enjoy the increased # of autos (and game used- though I mainly sell those rather than collect them) per box, products like Diamond Kings take that a bit too far w/their 1/1s, umpteen parallels, etc. This makes it very difficult for anyone to build a complete set.

Another problem is prices of boxes. When I was a kid (which was not all that long ago), you could get a pack of 12-15 cards (and gum- I love that gum) for $1 or less. Now, even the ‘lower end’ (MVP, Victory, etc.) packs are $3-4. I do not know what kids get for allowances these days, but if I had to pay $3-4/pack when I was a kid, I would not have gotten many packs. This point was hammered into my head when I went into a card shop recently and a Dad w/his kid asked the owner ‘do you have any reasonably priced packs?’ The owner’s cheapest pack was $35 for SP Game Used (02) NBA.

Stone193

<< <i>People that are heavily invested in graded modern will be jumping out of windows, >>


Roach was right - I'm having to sell everything - got too heavily leveraged in topps futures, RC's and futures stars! Went to get a room at a cheap fleabag hotel - told the guy: "I'ld like a room please" and the clerk asked me: "Is that room for Sleepin' or Jumpin'?

Seriously, Roach is making his point and I could take the argument both ways and run with it. One thing is for sure, it will be interesting to see what happens.


<< <i>My solution; make a Constitutional Amendment that says anyone by the name of Bill Clinton or Franklin Rosevelt can run for unlimited presidential terms. >>


Right on brother!




Mike

Spigrimace

"collect for fun and stay away from artificially created scarcity. "

I agree with that wholeheartedly. The element of "time" seems very underappreciated when it comes to collectables. The reason vintage is so collectable is because of "darn, my mom threw them out 40 years ago. Wish I had them back asit reminds me of a time long gone in my childhood where I had a lot of fun"

Making a 1/1 this morning and trying to sell it for $1000 by 5PM isn't making me want it. A collectable is usually something that we didn't realize was going to be a collectable when we bought it.

And those swatches crack me up. Maybe I should sell the "O" from my Mel Ott autograph. Which would be more valuable...the first t or the second? lol. But wouldn't cutting it up ruin the value to an autograph collector? So a swatch of a jersey. ahem.

pandrews

<< <i>A collectable is usually something that we didn't realize was going to be a collectable when we bought it.

>>



exactly.

A761506

I saw boxes of that exquisite stuff marked at $2000, the dealer had probably 8 of them. I still can't figure out why someone blew $62K on that ugly looking Kobe/Lebron patch card. 1 of 1... there's a million of those now... seems to me the card couldn't possibly be worth more than a couple hundred bucks.

I personally believe pretty much everything issued since 1985 or so is junk. There are millions of these cards floating around. People kept cards in good shape after Beckett created a market for them. All this new stuff that seems great now will be able to be had for a fraction of what it's selling for today in a couple years. How can a Albert Pujols or Mark Prior rookie be worth as much or more than high-end star vintage cards of the 50's and 60's? That's just crazy to me.

MrMoo

As much as I want to I haven’t been able to get back into collecting sports cards. I just don’t see the value in the cards. With my non sport hobby I can get a box for around $70. Usually pull at least an auto, a jersey, and 90% of a set. I can also play the speculation game. Granted this is on a much smaller scale then sports cards. It gives me something to do.

NBAFan

Any product in 92-93 was hot, because it was Shaq's RC year along with Zo's. LJ and Mutombo were in 91-92.

DirtyHarry

The economic theory of utility in motion on some modern (price/value relationship). Prices hit a point where they exceed actual value. Sales decline, then pricing bottoms back to what the product is really worth. You also have increased supply versus demand coming into play on the glut of limited this and limited that. All makes sense.
Greenspan would probably advocate vintage as an investment and modern as speculation, unless you are in it purely for the collecting aspect. This just framing it up and paraphrazing what has been said here before.

67standup

Charlie the Gambler might ascertain that all of it – vintage, modern, packs, etc. - is speculation.

parrotpaul

<< <i>"collect for fun and stay away from artificially created scarcity. "

I agree with that wholeheartedly. The element of "time" seems very underappreciated when it comes to collectables. The reason vintage is so collectable is because of "darn, my mom threw them out 40 years ago. Wish I had them back asit reminds me of a time long gone in my childhood where I had a lot of fun"

Making a 1/1 this morning and trying to sell it for $1000 by 5PM isn't making me want it. A collectable is usually something that we didn't realize was going to be a collectable when we bought it.

And those swatches crack me up. Maybe I should sell the "O" from my Mel Ott autograph. Which would be more valuable...the first t or the second? lol. But wouldn't cutting it up ruin the value to an autograph collector? So a swatch of a jersey. ahem. >>



When are they going to "swatch" Impressionist paintings so everyone can have a piece of a Van Gogh?

pandrews

<< <i>When are they going to "swatch" Impressionist paintings so everyone can have a piece of a Van Gogh? >>



a piece of Van Gogh? like an "event-used" ear?

RedRomad275

"collect for fun and stay away from artificially created scarcity. "

I also agree with this. Someone made a comment earlier about Diamond Kings that was right on as well. Once again we come back to the same thing. Collecting is for fun not investing.

Stone193

Attention: Upper Deck has purchased the Statue of Liberty and is chopping it up!
Hot off the Upper Deck web page! New Upper Deck Excruciating - 5000$ a Case, one pack per case! Top insert Lady Liberty Island Used cards - with a genuine piece of the statue! 1/1 auto/liberty piece autograph of Bartholdi and 1/1 auto/liberty piece autograph of Eiffel!

Mike

iamthegreatcornholio

This is an interesting thread. In my view, the hobby really started changing in the 80’s when card companies produced more and more of the same crap. Since then a “piece of cardboard” isn’t really worth much because there are so many of them so from then on they tried to inject value into the cards by adding sigs, jerseys pieces, bat pieces, etc. The first sets have always been nice like 93 Finest refractors, but they just keep doing it over and over again. I can’t really think what they could do next that would sell big. But then again if I could, I’d probably be working for UD.

Brian

TCC

<< <i>As much as I want to I haven’t been able to get back into collecting sports cards. I just don’t see the value in the cards. With my non sport hobby I can get a box for around $70. Usually pull at least an auto, a jersey, and 90% of a set. I can also play the speculation game. Granted this is on a much smaller scale then sports cards. It gives me something to do. >>



So, we have another non-sports collector as well. Good.

What do you collect? Vintage or modern sets or both?

-Bob

Justin

Yep, that is what I inferred in a previous post:

STAGFLATION. That is what we are starting to have in this country. Remember the 1970's? Health Care, College Costs, Property Taxes, Gasoline and Utilities, Food going UP but Electronics are dirt cheap. BUBBLE II developing in the Stock Market. High Tech jobs such as engineering and computer programing are going overseas to India and China. We are importing Salary Deflation into this country. When is the last time you got more than a 3% raise in one year? Just look at skyrocketing Gold and Silver prices and the freefall dollar.

My opinion is there is an over abundance of modern cards out there. Just look at all of the card companies. My prediction is within the next 5 years several card companies will go under. If some card companies are lucky they will survive by merging. You won't be able to give some of the cards away for pennies in the future. Save this post and come back and read it in 5 years

http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=11&threadid=257816&highlight_key=y

jrinck

You want the future? I'll give you the future!

By 2015, technology will have advanced to the point that moving images, ala television, will be able to be produced on paper as thin as a baseball card--and as cheaply as a baseball card costs to produce today in 2004. Sportscard companies will no longer produce static cards with an unmoving images. The cards they will produce will contain images that move as fluently as does video on a TV screen. The era of the dynamic baseball card will then be upon us--around 30 years after Sportsflics pioneered the concept, albeit lacklusterly. The very first gimmick they'll throw at us will be 1 of 1 special "message" cards in which the video displayed will contain the player saying something like "Congratulations! This card of me is one of a kind! There are no others like it!"

So folks, save this post. By 2015 you'll be calling me the next Nostradamus!

krazyace5

Great idea for a boxing card insert, the actual piece of ear tyson bit of holyfield!

lol

Seriously, I have not been into collecting in quite some time but my son and I buy a pack here and there.
The other day he got a GU Karl Malone jersey card, with 3 colors on it. I think I was more excited than him thinking it was a $50+ card, only later to find out it is a $10-$12 card. Kinda sucks.

Not to mention card packs are so expensive these days, you rarely get your money back, I can't stand paying $5 a pack only to get a bunch of commons.

This has probably been mentioned, but buying packs is like buying instant lottery tickets, odds are against you making your money back. Thats it a new form of gambling, pack-busting!

Spigrimace

<<High Tech jobs such as engineering and computer programing are going overseas to India and China. We are importing Salary Deflation into this country. >>

You are soooo correct and it's starting to show up in the wage data as well.

By the way, look at the history of the stock market in a rising interest rate environment. Not too pretty.

For those who are not well travelled, you can't even begin to understand the disparity of US lifestyle vs. the rest of the world. I suggest you travel to any continent other than North America or Europe and you'll never take anything for granted again.

Hoping the US hasn't jumped the shark.

envoy98

<< <i>I think Upperdeck tried inserting redemption cards for actual game used and autographed memoribilia in one if their football products. I can't remember if it was 2002 or 2003. I don't think that went over too well. The cards were inserted 1/case on average. Not great odds.

Scott >>



UD Patch did that last year.

I also heard/read that the Topps Originals will include random redemption cards for game used memorabilia as well. I think it was in the newest full-color beckett. (ISH) Not sure if that means actual whole memorabilia, or gu cards, but my impression was that since it would be a redemption...

By the way, why in the hell is "Billy Beane" signing cards in that set? I am aTwins fan and I don't even remember that guy, he signed in fan favorites too. Do you have any idea how Pi$$ed off someone is going to be about getting a billy beane autograph?

Ok, sorry...OT There.

Anyways... back to the topic at hand.
I think GU is a joke now. What I espeically like, and Roach, you can understand this one...I pulled a Dr J jersey out of Exquisite as well, mine is extra exquisite and #/25. Selling for $49. The real beauty of this card??? Not that it's #/25, but that it's actually 2 separate pieces of jersey and they aren't even going the same direction. One is sideways. The seam is right in the middle of the card under the gold basketball guy thing.. Couldn't I at least get 1 whole piece for my $500?

I personally think autographs, especially rookie autos, are the big thing now. GU is worn out, refractors are still popular and short prints are too, but modern isn't going to survive on those. The collectors especially are staing to find their own collectibles. ie. player jsy # for the serial # ie Bonds #25/50, or the first or last... or 1/1. Patches etc. We get tired of things and have to find new things to entertain us. (Us being anyone who rips for fun) I know I would much rather pull an auto fo someone than a GU, and I know I would much rather pull a redemption for a whole gu jsy or batting glove or bat of a player, even a crappy one, with odds of 1/case than pull another dozen Carney Lansford, Troy Glaus jsy cards and Pujols GU base cards...

envoy98

<< <i>a piece of Van Gogh? like an "event-used" ear? >>





too funny.

I think you're stealing my idea though. I was wondering when we'd get authentic DNA (hair strands, fingernails), or maybe game used appendiges? Ronnie Lott could supply game used pinkies...how cool would that be?

:lol

envoy98

<< <i>This has probably been mentioned, but buying packs is like buying instant lottery tickets, odds are against you making your money back. Thats it a new form of gambling, pack-busting! >>



Actually KrazyAce, you aren't too far off. It is in fact gambling and the NPN is proof of that. It was added to get around certain state laws so it wasn't perceived to be circumventing those laws by packing their gambling product as baseball cards and marketing them to kids.

DrFever

As long as Beckett is in bed with Upper Deck, the hobby will never flourish. Beckett artificially inflates prices and scarcity because it has become the bible of sports cards....in truth, Ebay has become the true bible of sportscard values. Remember, it's only worth what someone will pay for it, not what it says in any book.

Also, when companies like upper deck continue to make 4-6 sets per year...COME ON... WE ARE THE STUPID ONES FOR CONTINUING TO BUY THEIR STUFF. The same rookie card of one player...one is numbered out of 2000, the other one out of 900, the other one out of 500 and another out of 99. Yet, in actuality.... there are 3499 of those cards right?? oh, but my serial stamp says it's a 2 out of 99... ARTIFICIALLY CREATED SCARCITY.

I long for the 1990 and earlier stuff in the sense that it was so easy. ONE SET PER YEAR AND AN UPDATE SET. They can then get creative with inserts and subsets within that set. But, what's an actual rookie card today.... Upper Deck? Victory? SP? SP Auth? Sp Auth Game used? SPX???? get my drift.

And that SP Game Used Patch Edidition has to be the biggest scam racket of em all..... 3 friggen cards in a pack - ONE PACK PER BOX! ....yeah, one's an ultra rare (my-ass) patch.....

ARHG!!

fsjeter

Well, don't hold back Drfever, tell us how you really feel. BTW, I couldn't agree more!

Scott

ctsoxfan

<< <i>Actually KrazyAce, you aren't too far off. It is in fact gambling and the NPN is proof of that. It was added to get around certain state laws so it wasn't perceived to be circumventing those laws by packing their gambling product as baseball cards and marketing them to kids. >>



Well, I never knew that. I always have referred to UD products as lottery packs, but this little tidbit says a lot.

nojo

Holy Gargamel, this turned into a dissertation. Didn't know it would end up being so long...I just wrote out everything in my head . Get your reading glasses...



For modern cards, this seems to be keys to collectability:

-Rookies
-Autographs
-Brand name
-Uniqueness
-Rarity

For starters, rookies will of course hold value, if it's someone good. All other factors being equal, a player's rookie card will be more valuable and hold value better than any other card of that player. Other rare cards usually go down, since more of them are made every year. G/U used to be rare and valuable, but no longer. Rare parallels and inserts are valuable to player or team collectors, but a rare parallel from 1998 will be worth much more than a card with the same rarity made in 2004, even though the 1998 parallel itself will have dropped in value since '98.

Autographs have staying power. Sure, most have gone down as more are produced, but not as much as game-used. The fact is, it's cheaper to produce a game-used card than an auto. The most desired autos of today's stars (Griffey, AROD, etc.) cost card companies quite a bit of cash to obtain. There was actually a very decent article on autos in the October, 2003 issue of the baseball Beckett. The article mentions that superstar autos can cost over $100 each for the card companies. This means that there will never be very many in packs because of the cost, unless a player's popularity takes a nosedive. Jerseys, on the other hand, seem to be getting cheaper and cheaper. Even if an A-Rod jersey costs 2 grand, cutting it up and making cards would likely cost under $10 per card. In addition, band-aid autos will always be less desireable than an auto on the card itself, all other things being equal.

Brand names for rookies is also very important. Pujols has dozens of rookies in 2001, but only a few make headlines. The top 2 seem to be the Bowman Chrome and the SPx. Notice that they are both autographed . The Chrome books 1200 and the SPx 350 (at least, in the june beckett it did). The Chrome is #d to 500, SPx to 1500. Another high-profile Pujols RC is the Donruss Elite, booking 250 and #d out of 900. However, another Pujols RC is in Donruss Class of 2001, booking 80 and #d out of 525. But what's this? The Class of 2001 is almost twice as rare as the Elite, and yet books for about 1/3 the price. The reason? Brand name. It counts for a whole heck of a lot, and I am actually happy about it. The best rookies usually come in only a handful of products that are the same year in and year out, which makes prospecting somewhat easier. The best brands currently are Bowman Chrome (and Draft), Donruss Elite (especially Extra Edition), SPx, and recently UD Prospect Premieres. These are the best bets for keeping value right now.

Uniqueness also counts for something. This isn't seen very often for rookies, but I have definitely noticed it with inserts, parallels, G/U, and some autos. The beauty of a card is also factored into this. Unique-looking cards will definitely be collected more for obvious reasons. For example, most game-used cards are boring and uninspired. A picture of the player, a plain ol' swatch, and that's it. However, I recently traded for a 2002 Topps Gold Label Eddie Murray jersey. It is quite attractive, and the unique part is the jersey swatch is placed in a clear plastic area on the card, like a fly trapped in amber. Looks great...too bad creativity like this is rarely found today. Another example of uniqueness would be UD's Sweet Spot autos. The uniqueness and beauty of these directly translates into higher prices compared to regular autos.

Lastly, before my fingers fall off, comes the lengthy subject of rarity. Manufactured rarity is losing value now that people are realizing what the card companies are doing. Back in the day, they could get by with having 5 parallels of the same card because of the freshness of the idea, but not today. 04 Diamond Kings really opened a lot of eyes with the ridiculous number of parallels, and prices are lower because of it. A 1/1 jersey card with blue foil just isn't desireable when the same jersey card with red foil is #d out of 500. This is manufactured rarity. Real rarity requires desireability. An example would be a 1/1 card made pre-2000, like the Fleer Showcase Masterpiece 1/1s. For 1999 Showcase, each of the 140 base cards had one parallel #d out of 20 (Legacy) and one 1/1 parallel (Masterpiece). Not only was there only one 1/1 per player, but I believe it was the only 1/1 available that year out of any Fleer set period. They also put more effort back then into jazzing up the really rare stuff to make it distinguishable from any other parallel. You knew you had something special when you pulled it.

Now let's take 04 Diamond Kings. George Brett makes a good example. For base card parallels, there are 8 1/1s: regular platinum, framed platinum black, framed platinum grey, framed platinum white, plus black and white (sepia) versions of the regular, framed black, framed grey, and framed white platinum 1/1s. There are the same 8 types of 1/1s for the g/u version, the auto version, and the g/u auto version. That's 32 1/1s that I know of, and there might actually be more.

It used to be, if you had a 1999 Showcase 1/1, you could say "This card is the only 1/1 of this player in this set. It is unique." Now, if you have the George Brett 2004 Diamond Kings Sepia Framed Black Platinum Materials 1/1, you can say "This card is the only 1/1 of this player that has 2 game-used pieces on it, has a sepia-toned picture, has a black frame, and has some platinum foil. It's uniqueness is only exceeded by it's stupidity." Another example of a rare and desireable card would be Bowman Chrome Gold Refractors. Excluding 2003 Chrome, they are always low-numbered (usually 50), and there's only one gold refractor per player. A Gold Refractor rookie card will almost always be the absolute most desired rookie of any given player. Even if the gold ref. is not auto'd and another rookie exists that IS auto'd, the gold ref. will still be very valuable and will compare favorably in price to the auto.


Summing up, cards that exhibit many of these qualities end up being the most valuable and keep their value better. Using the Pujols Chrome again, let's examine it's properties:

-Rookie. Yep, it's a rookie.
-Autographs. It is autographed.
-Brand Name. It comes from Bowman Chrome, the number 1 overall rookie brand.
-Uniqueness. Not a terribly innovative card or brand.
-Rarity. Only 500 exist, and everyone wants one. 500 is much less than everyone.

This card exhibits 4 out of 5 qualities for a good modern card. The result is a card that sells for a grand raw, and it's one of the most important cards in recent memory. If he keeps up his current performance and has a nice, long HOF career, there is an extremely good chance that this card will become superbly valuable. His other 5 thousand rookies in other products will still be valuable, but will exhibit nowhere near as much increase in value.

Now my fingers will fall off. I'm spent.

DrFever

excellent work nojo....

AlanAllen

Good analysis nojo, thanks!

Joe

ctsoxfan

nojo, well written post! I really liked the emphasis on certain brand names / card lines being the most reliable for prospecting...nice work!

nojo

Thanks for the positive feedback. Looking back at it, I should really follow those guidelines more for my rookies . I have like 100 eggs in 100 different baskets it seems.

Anyways, hopefully this will also give some vintage collectors some appreciation for modern. Erase the hate!