POLL: Which recent rookie call-up is the best long term buy?

KallMaloneSay

even though he was just resent to AAA, I like Kotchman. Although he didn't hit at a great clip while with the Halos, he almost never struck out. At some point he'll begin to hit it where they ain't.

TheRoach

Not sure who has been called up lately, but I wasn't impressed with Kotchman at all. I did here he could hit though. The problem with him now is that his best card, '01 Prospect Premieres Auto, is already up to $100 just because he was called up. Way too much. If Beckett was fair now, they would lower tha card back down to around $50 or $60 since he didn't perform worthy of the $100 price tag they gave it. He's too high to invest in now.

I still love Jeremy Hermida and Jason Stokes alot. Both of them are having great years so far, and I expect them bot up by next year or late next year. Look at the '02 Prospect Premieres Upton which sells for $60-$70 ungraded all the time. Now take the Hermida which can be had for $18-$20. I consider it a bargain at this point. PSA 10's are ending at $37 or so.

I even think Stokes is a pretty good bargain right now also. Especially the '00 HS All American Auto/1000. You can grab them for like $18 a card also. His first auto.

I did hear that Dallas McPherson is having a huge year in the minors. Like 20 homers, 65 RBI's already.....




TheRoach

Treetop

Kotchman at 21 years old is a can't miss player. Not only did he get his bat on the ball, but he played a heck of a 1st base for the Angels. He will develope some power also.

Troy Glaus is gone (contract done at the end of this year) and Dallas McPherson is the man at 3rd base for the Halos in the next year or two. McPhersons just been crushing the ball the past few weeks, but his glove his not at a major league level (yet).

KallMaloneSay

I slightly agree with you Roach. I wouldn't put that much into the Prospect Premieres Kotchman either. But if he were to become one of the top hitters in the AL next year out of nowhere, I feel the Prospect Premieres would probably have a quick jump to $200 while the Bowman chrome Draft would hit about $40. With that said, the Chrome Draft is only $12 now and can be had cheap online right now and is the better buy. I would stay away from Jason Stokes, he's another Jack cust in my opinion as the higher up the level he moves, the more he'll be unable to hit quality pitching and his strikeout ratio will keep soaring. I could be wrong, but I've never been a fan of the high power, mid to low average guys in the minors.

Rios is starting to come around, I think he'll struggle a little this year and probably the 2005 season also, but I think he will become a great hitter.

Greinke is just outstanding. The hobby may never give him a ton of attention because he's not a major strikeout guy, he may be the next coming in the Tim Hudson/Greg Maddux mold and be a perrennial 18 game winner.

Daniel Cabrera kinda' came out of nowhere, and he looks really solid with big upside from his 6'8" frame, it would be nice if he could gets some run support.

Nageotte has been really underlooked as consistent as he has been over the last three minor league seasons. He looks like he can become one of the best #2 or #3 starters as long as he isn't matched up against opposing teams staff aces.

Stone193

<< <i>Greinke is just outstanding >>


I agree Kall, altho he has like a 1 and 2 record, his era is under 3 so he is not getting the run support. Important tho: he has a good SO to BB ratio compared with a lot of other young pitchers - which will only improve with experience. Altho I like to see the sluggers, there's nothing better than watching the new pitchers come up.


Mike

Knopfler

Greinke is the only one I've seen in person, but he was pretty darn impressive. The game I saw, his pitch speed varied from 67 mph to 93 mph and I think he only got up to 3 balls on two batters the entire game. He is also still very young and thin, so if he puts a few more pounds on in the next few years, that could increase the strikeouts as well. However, he has been quoted as saying that he could strike out more batters if he really wanted, but he prefers to keep his pitch count down and utilize the defense behind him. And I have to say, I've never seen a pitcher get so many little foul popouts. I love those!

nojo

Welp, since he isn't a secret anymore (not that he ever really was), I picked Greinke. I really think he will be a star.

For me, the jury's still out on Rios. I sold his Elite RC when it was hot, and that was great, but he's been struggling quite a bit in the bigs. I still think he's quite good, and I respect Baseball America's opinion of him.

Glad you mentioned Cabrera. I hadn't heard anything about him before this year, and he pitched very well in his first few starts. I like the 6'8", but he's cooled off lately. Unfortunately, I waited a bit too long to get my bow. chrome x-fractor graded and his prices have dropped off considerably. Guess I'll just sit on the psa 9 now...

Let's also discuss Chad Tracy. He was on fire for about 3-4 weeks after getting called up, but is struggling now as well. I missed the bubble for him as well, but at least I got back a psa 10 on his chrome draft.

My timing seems to be off lately. I'm just glad I didn't wait on the Rios RC.

helionaut

Not investing in pitchers is one of my cardinal rules. At any time, there could be a blow-out. Or, as in the case of Greinke and before him Juan Cruz, it's possible to pitch well and still not win. Without winning, there's only so far you can go on a hot-prospect tag. And even if you do win, it's tough to predict how the hobby will differentiate between someone like Greg Maddux, whose cards are valuable, and Tom Glavine whose aren't.

With a hitter, you know pretty much what you might get. Kotchman can hit, and he will. He had 100 ABs in his call-up. He had no homers, but 6 doubles. He'll come around.

But I don't think any of these guys are really the best choice. Upton is a stud, as are Hermida, and Stokes. James Loney destroyed spring training, though his stats in AA are less than overwhelming. Tony Blanco, the big name when 2001 Bowman Chrome came out, is sitll only 22 and coming along nicely, so picking up a couple of his 3-year-old cards could be worthwhile. There are guys with RCs in 2004 Bowman that are having great seasons so far.

Futureman

I voted for Greinke, which was more or less a homer pick, as I haven't seen (m)any of the candidates play.

I agree with helio though, pitchers are very risky. As a Cubs fan I have some decent Kerry Wood cards (didn't buy any Prior cards, darn it), but after that 20 K game, I don't think he's had the same hype surrounding him. His cards still get pretty good prices though. Anyway, for a pitcher to turn out, it needs to be someone on the level of Clemens. A once in a generation pitcher on a good team, or a team with a good following (Red Sox, Yankees) to have the speculation or "long term buy" payoff. The hype surrounding rookies coming up now is extremely hard to live up to, and in most cases (darn it, Prior) if the player doesn't make a big splash right away, the prices will at the very least temporarily dip, if not drop off significantly. I don't know exact numbers, but last time I looked, it wasn't like Randy Johnson was selling at the same prices as someone like Griffey.

Pitchers are nothing but trouble, look at Ankiel. I don't have any info on this, but how does Josh Beckett sell compared to Soriano? How does Dontrelle Willis stack up to a comparable position player? Pitchers are only out there once every five days. They aren't on Sports Center as much, which gives them a lot less visibility. It's harder to make big news as a pitcher than it is as a position player. If some rookie pitcher comes in and strikes out the side, it's no big deal. Marcus Thames (what's he doing now anyway?) came in and it a HR in his first ML at-bat off of Randy Johnson, you could look at ebay after it happened and see cards that had ended a day before without any bids, and then the ones that were listed going for $10 (or more). Pitchers are the most risky. Even the big pay-offs don't seem as big as when a position player makes it big.

Stone193

<< <i>Not investing in pitchers is one of my cardinal rules >>


Helio
I can't argue with you on that account - in fact, I believe even on the vintage side, sluggers outdistance pitchers with respect to appreciation. BTW, I can't remember, but someone had stated that he was cornering the market on Cole Hamels auto RC's of some kind and was planning to clean up - not always a reality.
Having said that, from a baseball and collector point of view, I like this guys prospect, he the "heralded" first High Number SP card #398 in Topps Heritage which is beauty IMO.
Mike

WinPitcher

BTW, I can't remember, but someone had stated that he was cornering the market on Cole Hamels auto RC's of some kind and was planning to clean up - not always a reality.

Jmnesq

Hamels doesn't have an auto RC.

helionaut

I'm not saying that there isn't money to be made on pitchers. I made a little bit off Prior a couple years ago, and if I sold all the Priors I own (I collect him myself), I'd make more. They are a focal point because even though they only play every 4th or 5th day, they figure in every pitch for their team when they do. It's just from a standpoint of buying low and selling high, there are far too many variables compared to a hitter. Injury is always the biggest problem (Ryan Anderson, Kerry Wood, Prior). Lack of performance in spite of hype (the Mets 4 aces from a decade ago, Kris Benson, Van Poppell). Pitching consistently well isn't enough for card values to go up (there are loads of solid MLB pitchers whose cards are basically commons, from Glavine, Nomo, and Johnson on down). And the Blass/Ankiel problem which is so rare you can't predict it, but it obviously does happen.

I don't know much about Greinke. I saw the highlights of his first game when he was called up, and he was certainly in control there. If he does well, great. I may have a couple of his Bowman Chrome rookies if he was in the 2002 Draft set, so that can be good for me. But for every Greinke, there's Bud Smith (remember him?).

Stone193

<< <i>I'm not saying that there isn't money to be made on pitchers >>


Helio
Just for the sake of clarity - I was in agreement with you on the relative "risk" of making money on pitchers. I was specifically talking about Hobby collecting and enjoying the baseball game/playing aspect of certain new players and what impact they may or may not have on their respecitve teams.
Mike

kuhlmann

Kallmalonesay
Sorry to say none of the above. I know david wright hasnt been called up yet but this guy is tearing up the minors and the scouts are comparing him to scott rolen. look for him to be up in july his auto cards are starting to rise on ebay. im looking for them elsewhere maybe find them cheap at some card shows.
he batted 360 in AA now in AAA he is 7-14 2 doubles and a homer.