The Current Ebay Market for PSA Commons
scottsusor
Posts: 1,210
Several folks have commented in various threads about the worsening current Ebay market -- particularly for PSA commons. Its not a tehory, its a fact. A few days ago, I saw a couple of low pop 1968 PSA 8 low pop commons -- Cap Peterson was one and I don't recall the other -- each go for under $20. That's amazing, as these cards were going in the $30 to $50 range. Now, these aren't "Top 10" in terms of the toughest 1968 PSA 8 commons but it shows very well what's going on. Its not just 1968 either. All years of Topps have seen a tremendous drop in interest.
What's going on? Lack of money? The economy in general? Fewer new PSA set builders coming into the hobby? I've always been very optimistic about the future of PSA set building but recent trends have me wondering a bit.
Comments?
Scott
What's going on? Lack of money? The economy in general? Fewer new PSA set builders coming into the hobby? I've always been very optimistic about the future of PSA set building but recent trends have me wondering a bit.
Comments?
Scott
0
Comments
I agree with you. I think it's mostly too many cards and not enough collectors. The extreme high grade cards continue to increase and the nm/mt continue to drop. We need more collectors to help out with the huge supply in psa 8 cards from the 60's and 70's.
The other thing we are seeing is that a large portion of the collectors sell their sets after completing them instead of keeping them. This just adds to the problem of an oversupply. People continue to spend money, the economy isn't that bad (yes my glass is half full), and the appreciation in real estate coupled with lenders routinely approving 100% equity loans has led to a lot of cash available for whatever.
It has only been 3 years since the first set from the 60's or 70's was completed in psa 8 or better and look at how many of them have already been broken up. Ten years from now it could be a huge feat just to break into the top 5 all time finest sets. They could be mainly retired sets or consist of even zero active sets. I'm guilty of selling sets myself after the thrill of the chase it gone.
I think the best thing we can do is introduce collecting to our friends plus get the graded vintage cards into the small hometown card shows. More people need to be exposed to collecting. The only exposure we ever get is when a card sells for $1,000,000 and then everyone thinks that is what vintage cards are worth. If folks understood that you can buy a professionally graded baseball card, perfectly centered, in nm condition from 1965 for the price of a hamburger, I think more people would collect cards.
Wow, I think this is the longest post I've written in a long time. I'll quit now.
Wayne
The only set that I track is 1969 baseball so I cannot comment on the sales for any other issues but in reviewing ebay sales for 1969 I see no evidence to corroborate your analysis. Most commons have sold within a narrow range and there were actually many cards that sold in May for quite a bit more than I expected.
Additionally, on January 2nd there were 61 basic sets registered; today there are 69 (68 if you discount John Constantino's second set). In January, 19 sets had a 20% completion percentage and now there are 22 which I feel indicates an active participation.
I'm not sure about other years but I think that 1969 is doing pretty well.
Michael
67standup -- I have to agree that "big dollars" (if we're talking over $500 each) are not desirable. But keep in mind that if it sinks too low, these things will stop getting submitted by dealers who can't make an adequate profit. Does the idea of not having them even available to buy sit well with you? It might, and that's great as many graded set builders do like to "search and submit" themselves. But many others don't have the time -- that's where dealers (like me for example) come in to help. I'm not trying to make a killing, just a living!
Scott
I also notice the market is cyclical for particular years. When new collectors enter the chase, prices temporarily jump, even for high pop cards. The key is to strike when the iron's hot. It worked well for me on the 1976's and 1977's. If you're a buyer who is trying to build a lot of different sets, it's best to focus on the sets that aren't seeing much bidding activity.
Wayne
<< <i>I should also add that I don't recall low pop PSA 8 commons from 1968 and 1970 ever selling that well. I sold my duplicate pop 6 1970 Indians Rookie card (card #7) last year for about $35. That was at a time when Chris Renaud and Frank Bakka, among others, were aggressively building their sets. Some of the 1970 All Star cards do well, but most of the commons don't. >>
Gemint -- 1970 Topps have never sold well, at least for as long as I've been involved in this little venture (since December 2003). I recall a 1970 #536 Mike Kekich (one of the 2 toughest along with Frank Bertaina) being listed a couple months ago with an opening bid of $99. It got one bid and sold for $99. Other low pop commons frequently don't even get a bid under $10. I have to think there's simply very little interest in 1970 graded set building. Your #7 Indians Rookies is in the "Top 10" of that set and $35 is a steal.
1967 Topps is perhaps the most "evenly spread out" of any year in the 1960's. There are really no "super tough" commons -- at least right now. The #1 toughest according to my research is #90 Jim Nash but there are quite a few of him around.
Scott
The 2 cards you mentioned both have had 2 sales this year in PSA 8 nq:
#52 Mike Andrews
$238.50 4/22/2004
$202.50 5/15/2004
#663 Dick Radatz
$51.00 3/18/2004
$78.75 5/10/2004
Scott
<< <i>67standup -- I have to agree that "big dollars" (if we're talking over $500 each) are not desirable. But keep in mind that if it sinks too low, these things will stop getting submitted by dealers who can't make an adequate profit. Does the idea of not having them even available to buy sit well with you? It might, and that's great as many graded set builders do like to "search and submit" themselves. But many others don't have the time -- that's where dealers (like me for example) come in to help. I'm not trying to make a killing, just a living!Scott >>
I do see your point, but I've filled most of my wantlists through non-ebay networks. There's ample collector clubs/sites - OBC, Old Cardboard, OPC Central, etc. - that are of great aid to the set collector. Moreover, if a dealer is selling a few top stars from a particular year, I will inquire if they have commons. It's a free market, so I won't go into elaboration on why high dollar runups is a silly concept to me. What's a dealer anyway? I sell on Ebay, so I guess I'm sort of in that classification.
Many commons have gone for over a 100 bucks in psa 8 with pops of 5 to 8 and hof rookies are out of site. PSA NINES ARE ON A CLOUD BY THEMSELFS IF THEY ARE LOW POPS.
Also something i find very interesting as i have seen many dealers bidding commons at well over smr in both psa 8 and 9. Bottom line football market has far out preformed baseball over the last year in my opinion.
Wayne
Joe
Regarding the Radatz card, although it sold for under $100 in both instances, it did sell higher in May than it did in March which refutes your initial allegation that a drop in ebay sales is a fact. As I stated earlier, I am only familiar with 1969 but here are some other examples of increased prices:
465 Tommy John (PSA 8)
$16.50 3/20/2004
$37.00 5/13/2004
501 Tony Gonzalez (yellow) (PSA 8)
$10.75 2/27/2004
$15.00 3/18/2004
$19.00 5/29/2004
521 George Thomas (PSA 9)
$42.75 1/21/2004
$25.25 5/3/2004
$25.50 5/3/2004
$37.00 5/29/2004
$56.00 5/30/2004
526 Hector Torres (PSA 9)
$40.00 1/18/2004
$27.00 2/8/2004
$31.25 3/22/2004
$24.25 3/28/2004
$56.00 5/30/2004
537 Mike Paul (PSA 9)
$43.00 3/19/2004
$72.00 5/30/2004
540 Curt Flood (PSA 9)
$48.00 2/5/2004
$32.50 3/3/2004
$78.00 5/30/2004
602 Cubs Rookies (PSA 8)
$13.00 2/8/2004
$15.25 3/28/2004
$45.50 5/29/2004
624 NL Rookie Stars (PSA 9)
$34.25 2/8/2004
$56.75 4/23/2004
647 Dave Wickersham (PSA 9)
$43.00 3/10/2004
$59.00 5/29/2004
I wouldn't say that prices are going up across the board but I would not agree that the overall trend is a decline either.
<< <i>Regarding the Radatz card, although it sold for under $100 in both instances, it did sell higher in May than it did in March which refutes your initial allegation that a drop in ebay sales is a fact. >>
Point taken, but might that single card possibly be more of an exception situation than an overall trend?
Scott
Get out while you still can...
There is always going to be price fluctuations in individual cards but even in your example you used 7 cards that were psa 9's. The 9's seem to be gaining ground while the 8's are flat at best. I can guarantee you that 1965 psa 8 commons overall sell for less now than they did 3 years ago.
If anyone has a old smr you will see where psa used to run an ad promoting how the smr was going up about 22% a year. They haven't run that in quite a while. The appreciation just isn't there except in very high grade cards and very low pop cards.
Wayne
1970 Low Pop
Yes the POP's are lower with football, and always will be. The production was less because the market for these cards in the 50's and 60s was much smaller than baseball. Football cards were the "junk" cards back then which means far less of them than baseball cards of the same years.
Jason
according to my values and my needs. Nothing holds dominion over me, I stand alone as the ruler of my life.
a) They flucuate wildly at times, as not everyone checks for cards every day, every week or every month.
b) Some auctions use shill bidders or get friends to run bids up.
c) At least two bidders or possibly more really want a card, spells a big finish for the seller and a wild price anomoly occurrs.
d) Seasonal issues with certain sports, Feb-April for baseball, end of the year for most sports, there are hot times and cold times, as a seller you have to track them constantly.
e) The Set Registry, it is a status symbol. Doesn't do no good to be collecting those PSA 7's and PSA 8's when everyone else is grabbing PSA 9's and PSA 10's. With PSA 7's and PSA 8's your customers are going to be buget aware and are not going to get into bidding wars.
f) Cards will sell for whatever someone is willing to pay. There is nothing guaranteed to a seller unless you use a Reserve Auction or a High Starting Bid, and chances are that you will be eating a few listing fees it you take that route.
Frankly from my point of view, the problem for sellers is not eBay or the buyers out there waiting for cards, its PSA and their pricing scheme. What they charge you, the seller to grade a $0.05-$5.00 common card, puts you hopelessy behind the eight ball. The cheapest price you can get is $6 and you have to wait 9+weeks, and your in the hole for the cost of the card and the grading fee.
The cold hard fact is that the PSA Set Registry made the high$ common card and the reality of the Set Registry is that there are really only a few guys out there building PSA graded sets and when they have what they want or need, you have very few remaining customers for your goods.
A card will sell for what someone is willing to pay for it and as stock traders are fond of pointing out, past performance doesn't guarantee future gains.
Scott Jeanblanc
jeanblanc@iconnect.net
Ebay UserId : sjeanblanc
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Collecting Nolan Ryan cards (68-94)
Brent
Bo Jackson Basic(#1) and Master(#1)
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2004 Cracker Jack Master
My Ebay Store
<< <i>sjeanblanc- very good points. having said that i am predicting a MAJOR bidding war on a card you have for auction
I believe you are correct on that one.
One of my favorite people to sell to is Frank Smith because he always pays what a card is worth. Because of that, when I get a new batch of 1975's graded, I send him everything he might need with no money exchanging hands. He reviews them and sends back anything he doesn't need along with a check for the cards he wants. He gets first shot at anything new I have before I even post them for sale on here. If there were more people that serious about building the best possible set, more sets would be completed and prices would be stronger. Frank is a top notch buyer.
Just my 2 cents.
I agree with many others who say this is cyclical. Low prices tend to be temporary and draw in new collectors. Once demand catchs up to supply, prices should inch up again.
Two large lots of PSA 8's recently sold for an average of about $5.75
Auction
Fact is you better get a PSA 9 when you send in your 1975 Topps cards, for unless you are one of the big dealers with a huge discount, it just isn't worth it.
Jim
<< <i>Fact is you better get a PSA 9 when you send in your 1975 Topps cards, for unless you are one of the big dealers with a huge discount, it just isn't worth it. >>
I'm not sure that even 9's are that profitable. Higher pops tend to be selling around the $10-15 mark. Factor all the costs to get that 9 and you're not talking too much net $.
While the set is popular, the material out there has stayed proportional, if not even greater. I think higher pop 9's will continue to inch downward, at least in the short term.
BOTR
The market for 8s isn't dead yet, though. It's really only 5-6 people going for a GPA closer to 9 than 8. While most cards have a good population, there are still some that engender competition within the current setbuilder group, as well as player and subset collectors (1957 MVP Mantle/Aaron card, Rose, Munson, Carter, Big Red Machine, etc.), and there are still some people going to the mattresses for an 8, re: an unusual $27 for Bert Blyleven last week. When a nice McEnaney comes around, it will probably hit $25, too. However, that is the only card likely to go for that much in 8 except for odd instances like the Blyleven. The deep-pocketed collectors I guess feel that if you are going to spend $25 on an 8, you might as well spend $50 on a 9. However, there are a couple dozen serious if not price-insensitive collectors who have passed the 50% mark. I suspect that when they start closing in on completion, the $15-20 common may return as demand catches up to supply once again, but the $100 common is long gone.
I'm sure, though, that it's the same in most sets where the 80/20 rule seems to apply. You can pick up 80% of a set fairly easily, but the last 20% will be 80% of the effort and 80% of the cost involved in completion.
2005 Origins Old Judge Brown #/20 and Black 1/1s, 2000 Ultimate Victory Gold #/25
2004 UD Legends Bake McBride autos & parallels, and 1974 Topps #601 PSA 9
Rare Grady Sizemore parallels, printing plates, autographs
Nothing on ebay
I've long felt that since raw prices for commons are so low, that graded prices should be, too. If it wasn't for the registry, many commons wouldn't even be graded. As more set sell off, with fewer new registrants, the market will saturate and prices will drop; and it will stay that way for a long, long time.
<< <i>I was able to pick up a relatively high pop '68 common PSA 9 (forget of who) about a year or so ago for $10.
I've long felt that since raw prices for commons are so low, that graded prices should be, too. If it wasn't for the registry, many commons wouldn't even be graded. As more set sell off, with fewer new registrants, the market will saturate and prices will drop; and it will stay that way for a long, long time. >>
I agree in some regards, especially for very high population commons. However, there will always be set collectors out there, whether they build graded sets or high grade raw sets who will seek out high grade vintage commons. Prior to deciding to build graded sets, I had high grade raw sets back to 1969. Even though I wasn't concerned with having the commons graded, I decided to buy graded commons where I needed upgrades because I couldn't find them raw in high grade. Many of those I had searched through thousands of cards and still couldn't find a nice example. So I didn't have a problem spending $20, $30, $40 or more for a common I needed because I figured I would spend many hours at shows trying to locate that card. At some point, time becomes more valuable than money. I also was eager to complete my sets and this was the best way to get the cards I knew would be in the condition I demanded. What I'm trying to say is that the market for graded commons extends well beyond registry collectors.
Also, prices for high grade raw vintage commons aren't so low any more. Most are charging multiple SMR for them. So if you can pick up a vintage common in PSA 8 or higher for less than the cost of grading, jump at the opportunity. Because you may end up paying more for it raw and it won't necessarily be NM-MT. The PSA 9 common you are referring to is probably Grant Jackson. There's a ton of 9's out there that came from vending cases. There are a handful of '68s that have tons of 9's but they are clearly the exception, not the rule.
8s in this set are a money loser. I've grabbed a HOFer 8 as cheap as $3.50 including shipping (Catfish Hunter), and 4_sharp_corners had several lots of 10 for $35 BINs.
If you're paying 2/3 of SMR for 8s on anyone but Eckersley (HOF rookie) or Brett (a very tough card) in '76 Topps, you're overpaying.
Even 9s are coming down in price - the high pop. commons can now be found for under $10.
Nick
Reap the whirlwind.
Need to buy something for the wife or girlfriend? Check out Vintage Designer Clothing.
and in the last couple weeks there've been two 8's and a 9.
1967and 1973 Topps baseball wantlists (any condition) welcome. Once had the #14 ATF 1967 set. Yet another collector like skylaneflyer, gimel1 who made it to the completion of 1967 only to need the money more than the company of 609 close friends.
Looking for oddball Norm Cash and Cleon Jones stuff, and 1956 team cards
<< <i>Hey where are all these cheap deals? I paid $131 for a PSA 10 1975 OPC Lyle. >>
PSA 10's are a different story, especially from the 70's. They should always command a premium, sometimes a great one. It is doubtful that the pop reports will ever grow dramatically on those.
<< <i>Maybe with the prices going down we will see better quality raw cards coming up for sale. Since there will be no profit in submitting for resale. >>
But you'll likely pay a steep premium over Beckett for them. That's the model dealers seem to be going to these days.
<< <i>
<< <i>Maybe with the prices going down we will see better quality raw cards coming up for sale. Since there will be no profit in submitting for resale. >>
But you'll likely pay a steep premium over Beckett for them. That's the model dealers seem to be going to these days. >>
That could become the case for some superstar cards of NM (PSA 7) level, but I think it highly unlikely that most major dealers would sell off any superstar cards raw above NM. And if you're talking commons -- especially "low pop" commons -- dream on. The per card investment that dealers have in those is so low that it makes far more economic sense to simply sit on them (if they have them) than to sell them raw and make only a buck or two per card in profit, if that.
Scott