Crime Dog is back, 1st HR of the year
qualitycards
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Saw a highlight a few minutes ago, that Fred McGriff was called up from the minors a few days ago and just hit his 1st Home Run of the season, his 492 of his career! He should reach #500 sometime this season. With that said, is he Hall worthy? EVERY player that has 500 home runs is in the Hall Of Fame or not eligible yet, like Bonds, McGwire, Sosa & Palmierio. It used to be automatic that 500 HR's would land you in Cooperstown, has that # now been jaded a bit? Or should we stock up on his 1986 Donruss rookies? ...jay
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Its just that he played for many teams (he didnt do all that well for the Cubs
<< <i>It used to be automatic that 500 HR's would land you in Cooperstown >>
That's a good question Jay
I'm kind of speculating on GU bats of whom I suspect will be in the HOF. I picked up a R. Palmeiro bat but as you asked, is 500 a lock? May not be a first ballot guarantee. I used to think that 300 wins was an HOF lock until G. Perry didn't make it in the first year of eligibilty. In fact, in 1991 only Rod Carew was a first time ballot winner. I want to say if memory serves, that Don Sutton may not have been a first timer. So if the 300 win lost some of it's luster, why not the 500 club? Of course, I hope not! Then, again, I could take Raphy's bat and cut it down into Authentic GU tooth picks!
<< <i>Hes not controversial, just guilty of being consistently good for a long time. >>
Cubfan
I have had that debate with friends for years - I personally think a point can be made for great play over 20+ years of service vs. someone with only a handful of good years. Didn't McGriff break or tie the record for the most consecutive years with 20+ HR's? I agree with your assessment - HOF material? IMO, yes.
Mike
Always looking for Topps Salesman Samples, pre '51 unopened packs, E90-2, E91a, N690 Kalamazoo Bats, and T204 Square Frame Ramly's
<< <i>500 HR, 3000 hits, and 300 wins are all tickets into Hall recognition. >>
1420, That has always been the standard, I agree!
But now players hit 40+ Home Runs annually w/ ease. Henry Aaron never hit 50.
It will be interesting to see during the next decade how many players have 500 home runs or
are on the threshold of joining that club. When Mantle retired w/ 536, he had the 3rd highest
total in Baseball History. I'm thinking the 500 Home Run club will be a crowded club one day.
More so then the 3000 hit club or 300 win club. Players can get 10% of the 500 homers in a season,
but can't get 10% of the hits for 3000 or wins at 300...jay
Website: http://www.qualitycards.com
Mcgriff maybe ..but Palmeiro is a first ballot HOF no doubt about it
Palmeiro stats
and that doesnt even include 2004!
Groucho Marx
Website: http://www.qualitycards.com
Without the 70 home run year Mc Gwire would probably be on the bubble also.
I don't think so. He also hit 58 and 65 HR's on either side of that season. But let's say he only hit 40 rather than 70, he'd still be over 550 HR's for his career. He also holds the rookie record with 49 HR's.
Steve
They traded away 500 homers and a ton of RBI's and kept a .300 singles hitter who never came anywhere close in a single year of hitting Palmeiro's average.
I dont know how you keep Rafael off the first ballot...especially as he keeps adding more quality stats.
And McGriff may be the weakest of the 500 home run hitters, but thats almost like saying someone is the poorest millionaire. Id take that title anyday.
BOTR
A good point was made by Rob Neyer a few weeks back on ESPN Radio. He said the biggest problem for guys like Sandberg, Gossage, and Jim Rice is that there will be a lot of guys with great stats coming up for election in the next decade or so, and that voters are more inclined to elect two or three a year and not five or six, so those years where there are already two or three locks for the Hall will shut out the second tier guys. I would probably put the Crime Dog on a level with guys like that, and that might hurt him in the long run. But he'll get in. Nobody pointed at Early Wynn and dogged him for lasting forever to get his 300th, and the same will be said for McGriff.
I think that Palmeiro as well as McGriff are both worthy of becoming members of the HOF after they retire. McGriff has a career seasonal average (over 162 games) of 33 homers, 103 rbi while hitting .285. Palmeiro is 33, 106, .291. They are both pretty similar. As far as inducting them on the first ballot, I don't think they are deserving of being considered equal to the best of the best, however, the voting will depend on who else is in their induction class. I didn't think Eckersley should have been a first ballot either, and I still don't think Ozzie Smith should be in while Alan Trammell is almost completely ignored, even though Trammell was a much better player than Smith ever was, minus the backflips.
Where's Craig Biggio come in? He's one in my mind that is questionable. He's got over 2500 hits and a career .287 average. If he sticks around long enough to collect 3000, does he get in?
If Palmeiro makes it into the HOF, did you know he will be among the first ever elected who never led the league in anything or ever won a major award (aside from a bogus Gold Glove at 1B the year he played 16 games there)? Never. Not HRs, or RBIs, or AVG, or doubles, or singles, or anything! Talk about the poster boy for longevity over impact. Should he make it? Definitely not. But, the statistics he has compiled due to longevity will make him a first ballot HOFer in today's environment.
Jim Rice is a more deserving candidate. An MVP. Several HR and RBI titles and clearly the most feared hitter in the AL for a decade. But, his career petered out pretty dramatically, so his chances are slim and none because he doesn't have stats inflated due to longevity. In their primes, whom would you rather have at the plate? Rice, Palmeiro, or McGriff.
I don't think McGriff belongs either, but at least he has a coulple HR titles and a World Series ring to his credit. But of course, they will both get in on the first ballot. Ugh.
Palmeiro is a 4 time all star with 3 gold gloves.
he has led the league in hits, doubles and runs
Before this year he was
TOP 50 in :Runs, Hits , BB
TOP 20 in : Doubles , home runs , RBI's , Total bases , extra bases hits
By the time this season ends , he should be in the top 10 of all time in many offensive categories
if he doesnt get hurt this year and is able to play in 2005 he might retire with 3000 hits and 600 homers, not to mention a boatload of doubles and rbi's.
Generations from now only will see the numbers not wether he was feared or not.
Aaron was not feared he was not even the shadow of ted williams, babe or Mantle ...and yet everyone knows that he is the homerun champ.
Groucho Marx
Jose Canseco
462 HR
ROY
AL MVP
world series ring
When is he eligible?
Sorry I overlooked a couple of Raffy's league leading stats... but he has still never been a true impact player.
In regard to your statement above, Aaron was indeed considered a superstar early on. Look at his 1958 Topps card paired with Mantle. If he were not his equal, would Topps have considered such a pairing? He was an MVP in 1957, a World Series winning team. He lead the league in the following:
HRs: 4 times
RBI: 4 times
2B: 4 times
Hits: 2 times
Total Bases: 8 times
Runs: 3 times
SLG%: 4 times
AVG: 2 times
All Star: 21 times (starting in 1955 - his second full year in the bigs)
This is a very impressive list of credentials even if you never saw his lifetime stats. He was very respected from an early age. I think you are confusing his lack of media appeal with the deluge of accolades and respect he received.
there is something to be said about longetivity and being a steady quality player.
And you have to realize that Palmeiro's career is not over yet.
His numbers might be among the best ever by the time he is done
even though i doubt he will , can you imagene is he plays in 2006?
Raffy is most certain deserving of the HOF, because even though people love to talk about emotion and fear and energy, the HOF is about numbers and stats.
he is just not that captivating like mcguire, or as feared as bonds...
The one negative flaw is his lack of a world series ring.
can you pull up Murrays numbers for a comparison?
Groucho Marx
Unfortunately, for guys like Palmeiro and McGriff, the HOF is about more than numbers. How else do you explain guys like Koufax, Puckett, and DiMaggio. Their abilities transcended the statistics they compiled. Plus, at the other end, numbers do not help guys like Mazeroski, Reese, Fox, Rizzuto, and Perez. Their career stats are not glamourous, yet they somehow managed induction.
If Palmeiro makes 600 HRs and 3000 hits, then of course he's a lock statistically. But it will be the quietest production of his era. As an impact first baseman, he trails many of his peers: Bagwell (MVP), Thomas (2X MVP), McGwire, Giambi (MVP). I'd say he falls into a group of peers including Thome, Tino M, McGriff, and Karros. His advantage over them has been longevity.
Eddie Murray is very similar to Palmeiro (if Palmeiro reaches 3000 hits). But, in Murray's favor he was the first switcher to reach both 500 HRs and 3000 Hits, so he has an advantage there. Plus, Murray also played on a World Champion team and led the league in the following:
HRs: 1 time
RBI: 1 time
BBs: 1 time
All Star: 8 times
AL ROY in 1977
Gold Glove: 3 times
Modest, but still more impactful than Palmeiro. He was also the pre-eminent AL first baseman of the 80s (sorry Mattingly fans it's true).
I like Palmeiro and I expect he'll make tha HOF. I just don't entirely agree with him being there as he will be just another guy with a respectable long career that made it. Personally, I think the HOF could easily weed out 50 guys in there now whose main attribute was mediocrity benefitted by longevity. and truly reserve it for those players that made the greatest impact dring their playing days even if it resulted in a rather short career. Example; I'd take out Tony Perez, Jim Hunter and Bill Mazeroski and put in Don Mattingly, Jim Rice, and Ryne Sandberg. Weren't those three all more impactful than the first 3?
Name Avg. Games Hits HR RBI OBP
McGriff 285 2436 2478 492 1545 .378
Killebrew 256 2435 2086 573 1584 .376
McCovey 270 2588 2211 521 1555 .374
Stargell 282 2360 2232 475 1540 .360
Although McGriff was never a dominant player in the major leagues he has been a model of consistency for many teams. There are plenty of other players in the HOF that were not the premier superstars - both some of the names mentioned previously and going back even further to the olden days.
Adam
Raffy is not the most charismatic person out there.
and thats why numbers are so important in his case...when everything is said and done he will be in the top 15 in homers and rbi's
that means that in a 100+ years of baseball and thousands upon thousands of players he managed to be among the super elite of the bunch
PS. i agree that tony perez is a boderline HOF, but does anyone know at what number his RBI's career totals place in the all time list at the time he retired?
Groucho Marx
<< <i>Two words....
Jose Canseco >>
Koby - here's a little justification I wrote for this occasion to bolster your wish?!?
Ode to Jose Can-you-see Me in the Hall
Forget Pete Rose! Hey look at me,
For years been on a hittin' spree.
I've carried teams upon my back,
I am the Best, not talkin' smack.
I'm big, I'm buff, 'roids made me tuff,
If all those homers ain't enough,
I'm loved by women large and small,
My Bust's a must in the Cooperstown Hall.
Whenever I want, a base I steal,
I'm a 40/40 and that's for real.
Jose Can-you-see, I'm 10 feet tall,
My Bust's a must in the Cooperstown Hall.
I've got the goods, I've got the look,
I'm not just pretty, I've got a Book.
I'm quick, I'm fast, I never fall,
My Bust's a must in the Cooperstown Hall.
But just remember, when you vote this fall,
Forget balls bouncing over the wall.
Vote for me, or I'll tell all,
My Bust's a must in the Cooperstown Hall,
My Bust's a must in the Cooperstown Hall.
Mike
How can I forget the 40/40.
Plus the last I heard, he moved to LA and is trying to be an actor!
Jose Canseco
462 HR
ROY
AL MVP
world series ring
When is he eligible?
when do the ankle bracelots come off?
canseco is destined to be an on the cusp HOF never to be enshrined
the baseball encyclopedia is filled with such names
kingman..............etc
Fred McGriff is a totally different story. Nobody will remember this years from now but mark my words, he will be the first player to hit 500 and NOT get in! I'm only 30, but I remember way back when when it was coming up to the end of Dave Kingman's career--alot of purist's worried he might hit 500 jacks (I don't remember exactly how many he hit, somewhere around 450 I think), he could have played longer, he was just such an a-hole that nobody would give him a job. The talk at that time was he would be the first to hit 500 and not get in, so this debate has been around for a long time.
And Engineer, you're comparing apples and oranges--players who had to dog it out in the late 60's (when nobody hit a lick), can't be compared to the greatest offensive era since the 1940's (the 1990's). Remember, when Foster hit 50 in 77 (or 78), that was a big deal. It didn't happen again until Fielder did it in 1990. I would guess there's been an average of 2 players a year who have hit 50 since the early 90's, all in McGriff's prime years. And guess what--he's never come close to that. He will not be remembered as someone you came to the ballpark to see--he'll probably be mostly remembered for landing Joe Carter and Robby Alomar in a trade with S.D--forget his stats.
In 10 years there will probably be at least 10 more guys with 500 homers--will they all get in? NO WAY! McGriff will be the first to be shown the door!
Jay
Murray also nearly won a three year triple crown from 1981 to 1984. He was first in the AL in HOMERS, and RBI, and second in Average during that span! That is pretty dominant!
Murray also had less RBI opportunities than pretty much anybody who had more RBI than him in a given year(thus the reason Murray wasn't first in RBI in all of his dominant years).
Murray may not have won an MVP, but he was in the Top five SIX TIMES, which is more top five finishes than any player after 1970(except BOnds)!
P.S. Murray actually won a Major League Batting title in 1990 when he hit .330. Nobody in MLB had a higher average, it is just that Willie McGee was hitting higher, then he got traded to the A.L., his total average went lower, but he stil got credit for a bogus N.L. title.
Palmeiro is still a notch below Ed. Don't fall in love with Palmeiro's pretty numbers in the recent 12 inch softball era. When measured in the dominance factor, Murray beats him out. When you take ballparks into consideration, then Murray is a decided winner.
He finished with 442 homeruns. His last three years in the majors, with Oakland, he hit 35, 30 and 35 homeruns. He was unceremoniously dumped by A's management at the age of 37, at least partially due to the infamous "rat in the box" incident with a female reporter in the A's lockerroom. His last year with the A's was 1986. In 1987, McGwire and Canseco blasted onto the scene as the "Bash Brothers" with Reggie Jackson along for the ride. What would that team have done if Kingman had also been there hitting his monster shots.
Here I go with the "woulda coulda" bit...but if he had been able to play 2 more years and kept up his performance (no reason to believe he wouldn't have), he would have reached 500 homeruns...would or should he be in the HOF in that case?
Steve
The HOF has definitely opened the doors for both McGriff and Plameiro with the recent inlcusions of Perez, Cepeda, Carter and Fisk. All better than average perofrmers at their respective positions, but none were immortal standouts even in their best seasons. McGriff and Palmeiro will fit in nicely with this crop.
If we were grading HOF players, then we would call these guys PSA 8 sliders!
It's just interesting to consider his stats. You point out his strikeouts...Reggie holds the record for most strikeouts in a career. Kingman's career batting average was .236...not too much lower than Killebrew's. You're correct about the four teams in 1977 (he still managed to hit 26 homeruns over 132 games that year), but how many teams did Gaylord Perry play for?
Kingman's average 162 game season was 37 HR's and 101 RBI's, with highs of 48 and 118. Yes he carried a brick in his left hand out in the field, but his fielding % was .974 compared to .986 for the league. He was a two-time HR champion, and finished second four more times, including his final year.
I'm not saying that he should be in the HOF, although I used to think that, in my younger more naive days
Steve
I think that we are each skewed in our opinions on players according to our team allegiance and how much of players we get to see. Fisk and Carter were mentioned as borderline hall of famers. They were the two best catchers of their era. Bench was obviously head and shoulders better, but his truly great season ended in 1977 when Fisk was hitting his prime and Carter was just getting started. Both of them had great power numbers for their position and were both very good defensively. I think they both should have been shoe-in's. Who was a catcher even close to them?
On the Tony Perez argument, he drove in an enormous number of runs. One thing that really stands out to me is that all the guys on the Big Red Machine say adamently that Perez was the most important person in that lineup. To me, that kind of stuff counts more than any of our or the sportswriters opinions. Another off note on Perez is that the team fell off when he was traded, his departure ended the Big Red machine's playoff run.
In my opinion the guys that really have watered it down are the Sutton's (I don't care how many games he won, did you ever say "oh no Don Sutton's pitching today"? Unless of course he was for your team), Mazeroski's and even Catfish Hunter.
I'm a very big Don mattingly fan, but he doesn't belong in the hof. He was great for 5 years, needed about 3 more. I wish it wasn't so, but I just can't see it. The fact that Jim Rice is not in the hall of fame is a joke. I am a Yankees fan and I think that Rice belongs. I was always afraid when he came to the plate.
I don't care about his numbers, when Palmeiro gets in the hall I'll be disappointed. I just have no feeling for him. I've never been worried about him as an opponent fan and I've never wanted him. Although numbers will never allow it, guys like Edgar Martinez, Albert Belle and Chipper Jones have been better players.
Your comparison of Kingman to Killer crossed my mind as well, but Killer was, what?, 5th on the HR list when he retired? Plus, he was MVP in 69, popular All Star and an icon for a franchise for 20 years. Kingman was a true slugger, even feared at times. But with so many deficiencies that it's hard to look at him seriously. Looking back, I think he compares favorably to Gorman Thomas and Jose Canseco (minus the SB) and they will be overlooked for the Hall.
Kid;
Perez may have been a run producer, but his other numbers were rather weak. In a 23 year career his lifetime stats are nearly identical to Rice's 16 year career, yet Rice is shamefully snubbed. Plus, how many HOF players can be on one team simultaneously? The Reds have Bench, Morgan, Rose (talent-wise, but whether he should be there is another argument), and Seaver. He falls short of those 4 by a wide margin. I once heard an argument that Ron Santo is not in the Hall because the 60s Cubs already have Jenkins, Banks, and Williams enshrined and to add a fourth would be stretching logic. I think Perez falls into the same category, but dare I say it, I think he made it because Hispanic representation in the Hall is woefully inadequate considering how many have played. Orlando Cepeda is also a beneficiary of the inadequacy. I think ultimately, Palmeiro's ethnicity will help him get enshrined as well.
Jay,
While it is difficult to compare a player of today to players in years past, some comparisons need to be made in the HOF debate. If it was so easy to hit home runs when McGriff entered the league how come there aren't a flood of players from the 80's reaching the 500 HR milestone. Where are the Cecil Fielders, Kevin Mitchells, Jose Cansecos and Matt Williams? The ones that have/will make it are the ones that consistently performed year after year, i.e. Palmeiro and McGriff, or the ones that have had the Superstar caliber seasons and careers such as McGwire and Griffey.
Another factor that should be taken into account is the fact that more players are going to be entering the HOF every year and reaching these major milestones than in years past. This is partially attributable to the fact that the major leagues have increased from what, 16 teams in 1960 to 30 today. Some may consider this watering down of the talent pool allowing some players to excel when in previous years, with more competition for limited spots, they would not have achieved the status they did in todays world. I would argue that it is not necessarily entirely attributable to a watered down talent pool, but rather a natural extension of the increased population base of the US (About 180 million in 1960 vs. over 275 million today) and greater ability to go to other countries to find athletic talent. This also makes it harder to stand out in baseball today because there are just more players that exhibit all-star qualities year in and year out. With different teams, and/or in another era, guys like McGriff or Palmeiro may have been more noticed.
I don't disagree with the view that the HOF has extended invitations to a number of players of marginal qualifications over the years, and that they will continue to do so. However, it would be a pretty empty place devoid of a lot of history and great players if only the true superstars of each era were inducted. It's a pretty subjective process but think most of us can differentiate between the Mantle's and the McGriff's.
Adam
I agree about Rice, he was a monster and belongs in the hall for sure.
1) Ozzie Smith - why do people think he was so good, because he did backflips? Aside from fielding, he stunk. Never once led the league in SB's either. Hit .173 in 21 WS games.
2) Phil Rizzuto
3) Dennis Eckersley - take away 1992 and you have John Smoltz, who will not be in the HOF
4) Bill Mazeroski
5) Luis Aparicio
6) Tony Perez
7) Gary Carter
8) Orlando Cepeda
9) Billy Williams
10) Richie Ashburn
11) Larry Doby
12) Rick Ferrell
13) Hoyt Wilhelm
14) Jim Bunning
15) Red Schnoedienst
I think the veterans committee should be eliminated. If the guy can't get in when the board members vote, and they're on that ballot for up to 10 years, then they should not have another chance.
Players who deserve a spot in the HOF
1) Pete Rose
2) Jack Morris - most dominating AL pitcher of the 1980's, 3 WS rings and a lot of it because of him
3) Alan Trammell - twice the player Ozzie Smith was, always overshadowed by Ripken in AL
4) Jim Rice - dominant hitter from the mid 70's through mid 80's
The Veteran's Committee has been eliminated -- sort of. Now, they only select every two years and require a 75% majority of the committee to be inducted. Two years ago, no one was inducted. They vote again this year and no one is expected to be inducted again. The HOF felt the system had to be overhauled because the former players on the committee would lobby for old teammates. Ted Williams was a hige lobbyist for Bobby Doerr and Yogi Berra lobbied hard for Rizzutto.
Answer one question for me about your list. How does Fisk deserve to be in but Carter doesn't? Makes no sense to me.
Abe
My list excluded both Fisk and Carter. If one had to be in though, it would be Fisk. He held 2 major catching records: Games Caught, and HRs by a catcher. Plus, he had the mythic HR. Carter was a perennial All Star and has a WS ring, but to me comes up a little behind Fisk.
Anyway, I did a little research and the truth is, Fisk and Carter were essentially the same player.
If you look at thier careers, the average 162 game season has:
Carter-- 23 Hr's, 86 RBI's, .262 average, .439 slug
Fisk-- 24 Hr's, 86 RBI's, .269 average, .457 slug
Over thier careers Carter won 3 gold gloves and Fisk 1. A career fielding % of Carter .991, Fisk .988.
They both finished in the tops 10 MVP voting 4 times in their careers.
Carter has a better lifetime post season record. In light of all the all time catchers I believe they both belong in the hall. They are both all time top 10, in my opinion.
Abe
Raffy is still a legitimate 1B and is still one of the better players even now. He has proven durable. McGriff seems like he is just hanging on at this point and may get to 500 homers because he clawed his way to it.
Raffy got to 500 in manner that I would describe: all in a days work. He is not hanging on to pad his stats, he is simply one of the better first baseman out there and Baltimore loves having him back.
The argument: impact player vs longevity is nice. While I can understand that being mediocre for 25 years will produce HOF career numbers in the end, it does not mean that they are worth enshrinement.
The case of Raffy is different. While he has not led the league in HR, RBI or BA, he was always so close, often in the top ten in the most important categories. While Raffy is more of a longevity player, I think he is better than just having a mediocre/good career over so many years. He has been hitting at least 35 homers and 100+ RBI in 9? consecutive seasons....Even good players dream of having one season like that. Plus he had a BA close to .300 during that span not to mention leading the league in some categories, winning Gold Gloves and becoming an ALL-STAR a few times. Those are definately the type of seasons a HOF should have. Raffy has been a little more than just an excellent player over the years, he was the 1B that almost any team would have loved to have.
McGriff might have had a long string of 20+ homers, but that's not impressive in an impact sense. Hitting 35 homers is impressive for one season, outstanding for 9 years. Hitting 20 homers is no big deal, but to do it more than... what? 15 times is just adding more fluff but no substance even if we are talking about 500 homers in a career.
There has been too much emphasis on longevity in the past HOF votes, impact players and defense also deserve a looking into.
BST: Tennessebanker, Downtown1974, LarkinCollector, nendee
Did you ever see Ozzie Smith play? He was THE best defensive player at ANY position. It wasn't just about backflips. Offense is only half of the game. Their are tons of players in the Hall of Fame that couldn't play a lick of defense.
Shane
I want to say that I liked Trammell and thought he was a very good player. He was aweseome in 1984, but his career wasn't as pronounced as 1984 was. In truth he was the 3rd best American League shortstop of his era. That makes him a very good player, not a hall of famer.
Here are the actual stats:
McGriff 11 30+ home run seasons and 8 100 RBI seasons.
Palmiero 10 30+ home run seasons and 10 100 RBi seasons. The big difference is that Raffy has 4 40+ homer seasons in the midst of this 10 year run.
Here is the one that will surprise many, over thier careers, their average 162 game season stats are:
McGriff 33 home runs and 103 Rbi's
Raffy 33 home runs and 106 Rbi's
It's amazing what perception vs. actual numbers can look like.
how about we rest the mcgriff/palmeiro comparisons and try a different player, like with the smith/ trammel one...that was interesting
how about andrew dawson?
Groucho Marx
Another guy is Steve Garvey. When he was playing I thought he was a hall of famer, now that I look at it, he falls short. It's interesting to see how superstars of a generation end up missing the hall of fame. Think of the late 70's. Some of the greatest players were Jim Rice, Fred Lynn, Steve Garvey, George Foster and Bruce Sutter, yet they've all fallen short of the hall of fame. Who will be the stars from this era to fall short? Possibly Chipper Jones, Craig Biggio (unless he gets to 3,000 hits of course), Mike Mussina, etc.