Is it possible to build a #1 Lincoln cent set?

jacktheknife

Mike (Coppernicus) raised an interesting question in another thread. Is it even possible to build a #1 (or even #2 or#3) Lincoln cent set, 09-58 Basic circ. set without one of these sets coming to auction?


My answer, would be yes. I think there may be a set out there right now that would displace Stewart's. Aside from that, I doubt that another set could be put together to reach #1. Stewart has a number of the early pop1 coins locked up. If there is any weakness to his set it would be in the later dates. I only hope someday to make it to the top ten.

Jack

sonofagunk

Simple answer is YES

The full answer is (this was a quick calc while my server is down and I am delaying the writing of a paper due tomorrow):
With a few assumptions about where certain coins are, I figure there are 11 coins in Stewert's set that any "new" set would not be able to match. The weght of these coins are 47. There are 38 coins out there that a "new" set could have that Stewert does not. Their weights add up to 138 I do not know much about where pre 1934 rarities are, but I am guessing Gerry has a lot of them.

made a few assuptions. Like anything Stewart has that is not top pop, is only 1 grade off. And that Gerry's set is NOT "new", and a couple of "rumors" I heard about locations of certain coins.

here are the lists:


Stewart has that no new set can beat
4 MS68RD 1911
5 MS68RD 1915
6 MS66RD 1917-S
4 MS68RD 1918
3 MS69RD 1919
5 MS67RD 1919-D
4 MS68RD 1921
4 MS68RD 1923
5 MS66RD 1925-D
5 MS66RD 1926-D
2 MS67RD 1954
47 points

Stewart does not have (from the last time his set was public) that a new set could beat (and the grade)
* in front I beleive only 1 coins "availalbe" and a # means two "available" from my "estimates"

5 MS68RD *1910-S
5 MS67RD *1911-D
5 MS66RD 1912-D
6 MS65RD 1912-S
4 MS67RD 1913
6 MS66RD #1913-S
4 MS67RD *1914
10 MS66RD #1914-D
8 MS66RD *1914-S
5 MS66RD #1916-D
4 MS68RD *1917
5 MS67RD *1918-D
5 MS66RD *1919-S
3 MS67RD #1920
5 MS66RD *1920-D
4 MS67RD 1924
7 MS66RD *1924-D
8 MS65RD *1926-S
5 MS66RD #1927-D
2 MS68RD *1930
3 MS67RD 1930-D
2 MS67RD #1930-S
4 MS67RD *1931-D
3 MS68RD #1932-D
2 MS68RD #1934
2 MS68RD *1935
3 MS67RD 1935-S
2 MS68RD 1939-D
1 MS68RD *1940
1 MS67RD *1946
1 MS67RD *1947
1 MS67RD *1948
2 MS67RD *1949
1 MS67RD 1951
1 MS67RD 1952
1 MS67RD 1955-D
1 MS67RD 1957-D
1 MS67RD 1958
138 Points

jacktheknife

Sonof_gunk,

Awesome work. Yes, it is very likely that Gerry has many of those other coins. I think that the Nader principle is at work however. As many accuse Ralph Nader of splitting the vote, so I think the multiple "heavy hitters" in Lincolns are splitting the set, so to speak. In theory a new #1 set might be put together, but the multiple players will prevent that from coming to be.

Edited to add: I had to edit your name because the "monitor" did not like the letters F-A-G in your name. Can you believe it?!

haletj

Isn't there another great unregistered set, Thomas Irwin? Pictures were on Shylock's website. Had the 31-d in ms67, the third 14-d in ms66?

jacktheknife

Haletj,

I am almost certain that the "Thomas Irwin" coins are in fact Gerry's. He chooses not to be public about his holdings, therefore the alias.

haletj

Oh, okay. There didn't seem to be enough coins to go around for 4 top notch sets to exist (counting Tom Mershon too). I haven't done any calculations, but I doubt you could get #1 without any coins coming from those top 3 sets.

TAP444

I would think there are several top 5 sets that are
not listed in the registry
tim

jacktheknife

Tim,

You say "several", "top 5", really? Man, I must be out of it. I thought maybe a couple at most. Gerry's is the only one that I know of that would be top 5 (possibly #1). Aside from that, I thought I was pretty in tune to who was making the big purchases. Looks like I don't know Jack! Hey wait a minute, I am Jack....

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS

The Thomas Irwin set is indeed Gerry's set.He probably has a higher GPA than me.He certainly has oodles and oodles more money than I do and he has been spending it.Gerry has bought coins that he wants kept private temporarily.Heck,he has spent more than a million bucks on his set.

Stewart

jacktheknife

Stewart,

You're obviously "in the know" about this series, how many other unregistered sets do think there are out there that could make it into the top 10 if registered?

STEWARTBLAYNUMIS

jACK

one or two maximum

Stewart

marcalan84

Stewart and Jack- Hey....all anyone has to do is buy all of my coins in the Heritage Sale next week and they will have a top 10 SET!! Unfortunately....if they don't upgrade some of my coins...they may not remain in the top 10 for long! I can remember a few years ago having my set at #5, and that was before I spent about $50k upgrading many of my coins!! Now I just keep spending money to upgrade but still lose ground. I guess it might turn out to be a good time to sell...although I do believe personally that the series will go much higher in the years to come. There is just way too big of a following for the higher grade Lincolns. I don't think either of you will even be supporting me with a token bid....since I don't have a single coin that would do more than match what you currently have. I do have some really nice later date coins in MS66RD (the 49P and 54P are really exceptional for the grade). The 1958D might be one of the 2 or 3 nicest to ever be graded.

lloydmincy

This is a good thread. Me, just a collector of "great story coins" or key dates, (the only Lincolns I have to note are 1909-s VDB MS66 RED, 1922 no D Strong Reverse MS64 Brown and 1955 DD MS65 RD. All PCGS). But this is an interesting thread for the "thoroughbreds" to win the derby in the Lincoln PCGS Registry set.. My opinion, since the "serious" coin collector universe is really quite small, that there are MAYBE two other sets that are up there in points.

No way are there more. Unfortunately, because we all want others to see our coins, or share with others and BOAST what we have, it doesnt sound like the Lincoln PCGS registry of top patrons is much of a mystery. I mean, for example, if Stewart got on your badside, and you wanted to upset him, bid until you die when (if) the 1927-D MS66 RD ever shows up!!!!!!!!!! But the whole aspect of this is the FUN part. It is FUN to share with others what you have and what you are looking for, and what is needed to be what we all dream to be #1!!!!!!!!!! Me personally, I only want my fair share of the coins I want.... 100%.

jacktheknife

lloydmincy,

Some good thoughts, especially the last. Yes, it is suppose to be about having fun. I think the registry adds that for me. I like the challenge and the fun. Take for instance the thread that lead to this thread, "Lincoln cent man strikes again". He boasts about passing me in that thread in a lighthearted manner. We are both down in the 30's, but are having fun with our own little duel. It allows me to share with others the fun of building the set.

Jack

Steve

I'll bounce in here also because I too enjoy reading and corresponding with some of the top Lincoln cent collectors in the country. My perspective is a little different in that I've already collected the series in both business strike and proof and my enjoyment is completeness and upgrading where I want to but with absolutely no pressure to "beat" someone out. My business strike coins are just not worth slabbing except for the more valuable ones which are in the Registry. The satisfaction I have in owning the 1909VDB Matte Proof and the 1990 no S Proof, both very rare and difficult to aquire coins, also more than compensates for the fact that I don't own POP 1 type coins in the series. I do admire those collectors that do own them and display them for all to see. Steve

Coppernicus

jacktheknife - Thanks for starting this thread! Very interesting reading. I had been thinking of the "impossible" coins (e.g. Stewart's 1919 in 69) but I neglected the newer dates in higher grades. Even so, to get up into the top 3 or 4, while possible, is still a huge and expensive challenge!

Thanks also to son-of-a-gunk for running the numbers - Great job! Mike

Dennis88

First scenario:

It would be possible, but it will be a very hard task. Collecting registry sets will be in a few years more popular than ever, and I think then the real fun starts. I think the Lincoln wheat set will be one of the most popular sets, because the people who then step up the plate never saw them only, instead with memorials to. Prices will go higher and higher, the registry top 20 will be seperated from only one point or even less, and there will be excitement all over the place.

Second scenario:

Like sonof_gunk mentioned, there are alot of possibilities for upgrades. I also think that there might be alot of high grades out there, wich aren't graded yet. When that happens, it would be a chaos. Prices will go lower instead of higher, and people will lost there interest in registry sets, especcially the longer sets (like the wheats).

Just my opinions,

Dennis

lloydmincy

I was trying to find this thread. Finally did. Something sonofa-unk you should think about. It is POSSIBLE Stewart is not displaying his set completely for all to see, or when he submits for the registry point total. I looked at what you THOUGHT Stewart Blay is "missing" from his set, and I know he is not missing quite a few. I guarantee you he has had the1914-s 66RD for years (he even tells everyone) and one of the 1914 MS67RD's. Even my post I kinda "fibbed" my comments. I have more than a few lincolns. I have (based on recent prices from auction sales), 15 that are valued in the 5 figures. (One wouldnt count in any registry set - 1944 STEEL cent).

What I have noticed is the risk for collectors of paying too much for some of these high pops. For example, the 1934 MS68RD was a pop 2 two years ago, now it is a 7. OR why would anyone spend a lot of money on a top pop coin (say 1935 that has 4 68's, but 360 67's) that has a good chance of adding to the top pop. (I have one of the 1935's...I've said it in other threads). For example, Stewart made me aware that 1916 pop's went up for the 67RD because a man passed away having stashed quite a few away. 1916's TOP POP went from 16 to 25 in less than a year. I guess my point is....

The TUG-O-WAR:
Collecting the lincolns could be the most popular series of all registry sets (my opinion - I could be totally wrong), and so you have quite a few battling for position, which increases prices. On the other hand, the lincoln wheat cent years - THEY ARE NOT A RARE SERIES. If there are 72,000,000 1912's minted for example, there is a CHANCE a roll will show up. On the positive side for those that are collectors, but also interested in preserving their collection's value, the prices have really jumped, and as time goes one, the odds of these "rolls in the safety box" "popping up" are probably few.

merz2

Jack
I had to jump in on this thread.There is a lot of fun in collecting Lincolns,even if you can't be in the top ten.As others have already said.I myself am putting together a MS BN set 1909-1919,then MS RB 1920-1929.all raw.I am deriving great pleasure in this.The Red Lincolns are great coins,but the brown ones are easier(cheaper)to put together.Just ask Lincolncentman.

jacktheknife

lloydmincy,

You have made a very astute observation. Coins that are "unaccounted for" using population data may very well be owned by Stewart. He has multiples of some of the really tough dates. Thus, "doing the math" to determine if a #1 set could even be put together is quite difficult. I am fairly convinced that if someone were to start right now with the intent of becoming #1 that they would be unable to do so. As I said in this thread 4 months ago, it's the "Nader Principle". Stewart is #1 (until Gerry registers) and the remainder of the top Lincolns are split among competing sets, just like the Democrats saying Nader is splitting the vote.

Jack

sliderider

I think if it's possible, (1 of 1 pieces in strong hands will be impossible to get) you would have to submit a lot of raw coins and crossovers to do it. It'll be expensive and sometimes frustrating when grades come and they don't live up to expectations, but with perserverence, it may be possible to overcome the obstacle of the exclusive pieces (and irritate the holders of those pieces at the same time ).

As for unaccounted for coins, don't forget that resubmissions skew the pop reports. So those coins may no longer exist in those holders. Also, they may have been resubmitted to another service for a higher grade. There's also the chance that someone else on the registry list may be hoarding these to cement their spot on the all time finest list or they may be in the hands of collectors with no interest in the registries at all. I think finding nice raw or third tier holdered coins and submitting is probably the best chance for toppling an all time finest set.

merz2

sliderider
Sounds like you are describing Stewart.

jacktheknife

Don,

I don't think it was Stewart he had in mind. I read it as referring to the owner of the 26-S in 65RD, but maybe I'm wrong as well. I'd be curious to know who owns that coin.

Jack

sliderider

I'm doing the crackout and crossover thing right now with my proof Roosevelt dime set. I can't find a 1950 or 51 (the keys) in a PCGS slab in an acceptable grade at a price I can afford, so I'm buying raws and crossovers to hopefully save some money. I found a nice 1950 in an ACC holder that said PF70. I KNOW it's not a 70, but if it comes back at least a 67, I'll be overjoyed. This coin also had the characteristic yellowing of a coin that had been in the original mint cello too long. A quick dip followed by a water and acetone rinse and it looks great. I think I did a good job of the dipping because it hasn't changed color or developed spots. I'll wait a while to see if the fields stay clear before I send it in.