What's this Lebron James card going to hit?! $20K?!
Vincecarder
Posts: 1,852 ✭
Check out the auction:
LeBRON JAMES 03-04 UD ULTIMATE COLLECTION ROOKIE 1/1
What a sick card. He actually scribbled alittle more on this one than the usual cards.
LeBRON JAMES 03-04 UD ULTIMATE COLLECTION ROOKIE 1/1
What a sick card. He actually scribbled alittle more on this one than the usual cards.
CB4
0
Comments
<< <i>My question is who held the chickens' "feet" in the ink before it ran over that card. sorry a 1 of 1 you would think he would take a little more "pride" in his work. If I was a card company I would put a clause in that the Autos need to be consistant and legible to a degree. >>
I think it is the 'cool' thing to do for professional athletes to make their signatures illegible. Or maybe he spent too much time on the basketball court to learn how to write his name any better.
That's the whole thing...this guy could blow out a knee, could be just average...it's all a crap shoot. But if you have the money to spend then why not? If I had the cash to throw around I wouldn't mind owning this card....I think Lebron is going to be one of the best and his rookie season showed how good this kid can be...the sky is the limit....
edited to add: the only prob I see is that he has so many diferent rookie cards, in 86 MJ had 1 and maybe 2 minor cards. plus back then no one had made a BB set for a few years. In any event like vince sez its a crap shoot and if Lebron makes it to the hall then it may turn out to be a decent deal being a 1/1, however even with that said id like to see a nicer auto.
to be perhaps the greatest one basketball card ever. Now Im just a sceptical as the next guy on how
far Lebron can go, but I think VinceCarter was going in the right direction when he mentioned Jordan.
There are thousands of Jordan rookie cards, and those sell for a good price, but this is a 1/1 and if
Lebron turns out to be the next Jordan then this card could be in a museum one day.
If you had to take a 20K chance on one card, it is nice that 1) its autographed 2) its from a high end
product 3) it has a patch and 4) its unique. So far there was nothing in Lebron's first year to tell
us that his guy is going to be a bust.
OK, now for the modern collectors out there I pose these questions:
1) Usually UD UC is the premiere product for basketball.....but there is still one product left and it will
be even more high end....could there be a chance that his won't be Lebron's best RC??
2) Would you rather have this card for 20K or 40 boxes of UD Exqusite?
Kevin
even get a game used jersey for this one?
I have neither the gish or the stones and think I am in the majority. But, of course, there is a minority who has both - like anything else.
LOL to them!!
enjoy your collections
<< <i>I have neither the gish or the stones >>
Dirtyharry
I got the 'stone' but alas, not the gish.
Mike
Guess what I'm trying to say is that if I had $20,000 to toss around speculatively, it certainly would not be on a Lebron James card that I hoped would still be a 1/1 of a HOF'er of the greatest magnitude 15 years from now. I would have to be a millionaire to fold that type of risk into my portfolio. Short term crapshoot - yes. Otherwise, I would invest the $20k in bonds or security funds.
<< <i>Read additional posts >>
Harry
If that was for me.....I was making a 'pun' - ya know - "stones" - stone193.....see what I mean?
Mike
It just seems all relative to me and that the arguments, for or against one or other can be made for or against the other as well. If they can afford it, more power to them. I would rather pony up for a 52T Mantle, but that's just me. And I collect a LOT of modern. Cool card none the less though, wish I would'a pulled it!
Just my .02
My eBay Store
BigCrumbs! I made over $250 last year!
1) The $37000 paid for PSA 10 1986 Fleer Jordan
2) The $110000 paid for PSA 10 SI Tiger Woods
3) The whatever paid for the oversized Tiger rookies
Season is over and there are only of handful of products remaining. This card is it. Unlike the cards listed above where you knew there were tens of thousands produced, this is it. One of a handful of 1/1 unique cards issued in Lebron's rookie season. Unlike the cards listed above where you were praying that the population remained low, there is no worry about that here. The gamble is not the product but whether Lebron pans out. All the heavy bidders are banking on Lebron turning into a HOF player and winning some titles. Who knows? If I had the dough, I would go all out on this card.
1953 Bowman Color George Shuba #145 PSA 8
Who is George Shuba? Was he a good player? Do sports fans talk about Shuba more than James?
Is population of fifteen PSA 8 really low pop by anyone's standard?
I can't afford either so maybe I am not the best judge, but I would much prefer the 1/1 Lebron card. What it comes down to is how much discretionary and disposable funds each collector has. To each his own.
Let me repeat why this is still modern price is still bewildering to me: "The problem is, what is to prevent 300 companies each and every year to produce one of one game used auto cards?"
Perhaps with your responses I can get educated on this.
2005 Origins Old Judge Brown #/20 and Black 1/1s, 2000 Ultimate Victory Gold #/25
2004 UD Legends Bake McBride autos & parallels, and 1974 Topps #601 PSA 9
Rare Grady Sizemore parallels, printing plates, autographs
Nothing on ebay
if Playoff made basketball there would be a lot more, however not all 1/1's are the same! There is
usually a pecking order when it comes to value in the market place. In basketball Upper Deck rules, usually
Ultimate Collection is a guys best card and best rookie card, followed by SPA and then SPx, after that
there are some bowman issues and maybe topps chrome followed by all the rest.
Modern collectors want the best cards of players, An SPA rookie card might be numbered to 2000 and another
rookie card from fleer or topps may be numbered to 2000 also, but the SPA will always book more and
be worth more in auctions because it carries the brand name and that is the one everyone wants.
When you combine all that together, you get the auction results above. Everything is at its highest here:
Its a Lebron auto and a long auto at that!
Its from the best product out so far, UD UC
Its a patch from the logoman which is super rare
Its 1/1
I hope this helps!
JS
<< <i>Let me repeat why this is still modern price is still bewildering to me: "The problem is, what is to prevent 300 companies each and every year to produce one of one game used auto cards?" >>
The real answer is...nothing. Take a look at Diamond Kings! They did it to themselves, I've seen 2 examples of a Roger Clemens card from DK that were the exact same picture and card number and both were stamped 1/1. How is that possible you say? Well, after carefully looking at them, one was an "Event" worn jersey on the card, the other was a "Game" Worn jersey. First of all, who wants an event worn jersey of Roger Clemens, and in what event did he wear it? Second, why make the card look the exact same? I really get irritated with 1-offs that are 1/1 or 1/10 or whatever, that are nothing more than a foil-color change, or a border that's raised/sunken/missing/gold/platinum/white.....blah blah blah.
There are a lot of companies doing 1/1's now, why? I think it's because the game-used craze is over, has been for quite a while. 10 game used per box... I don't care. Give me auto's. Ok, they give you autos now, and lots of them. Problem is, in most cases, they are auto's of has-beens, never-were's or never-will-be's. So sure, it's great to get autos but you get them of nobodies and you are still ticked off. So lets think of something new and clever. 1/1 yeah! That's the ticket! It's working too, in some cases. Donruss classics being an exception to the standard DK 1/1 rule.
The point here is that the 1/1 craze is just that, a craze. It's been around for a little while (1998 Flair Seems to ring a bell as the first 1/1). Game used is passe' and autos are a dime a dozen as well, same with refractors. So to really get the hype going you have to either get into 1/1, ultra rare pieces (ruth/gehrig dual jsy/bat/pants or Lebron Logoman patches) This card has the best of all worlds. Short printed (1/1 see above) Event worn (not game used buy hey..) and an auto, plus it's from a $100-200 pack, big gamble that paid the jackpot.
I think it's a craze, that in time, will pass. But for now, it's probably the hottest thing going. The next craze we already see shaping up is the "Ultra expensive Uber Packs" UD will have a $1000 pack in the next 18 months, and it will sell.
Hope that helps.
This of course is just my .02/IMHO etc.
My eBay Store
BigCrumbs! I made over $250 last year!
<< <i>From: Jblez10@aol.com Add to Address Book
Date: Wed, 12 May 2004 15:01:31 EDT
Subject: Re: Message from eBay Member
To: mesablanca1110@yahoo.com
First off i hope the spurs beat the lakers. And the reason that more people like the modern cards is because they are the hot things on the market these days. Lebron James is not the person to be buying because it is very high right now. >>
This individual is a person of few words. I emailed him back to clarify a few things but he only wrote back to tell me it was OK to post his reply. At first, by his remarks I thought he may be a collector but these may be the comments of a saavy investor? His remarks on modern cards could be those of a collector but hard to say.
So, I will let you draw any conclusions you can. Me? I think the excitement of buying packs, ripping them open and the buzz you get from a great pull is indescribable! Moreover, I follow sports and I personally relate to the game much better by collecting the new. I buy vintage to bridge the past and the history of the game but NEED modern for today.
Just a few thoughts today while waiting to start at work.
Mike
edit to make email easier to see by quote marks
Envoy makes a very valid point regarding the "craze" over super short prints... but I'd like to add to his thought.
If this were 1985 and Topps had just announced that they would make a 1/1 Topps Tiffany set (one Clemens, one McGwire RC, period)... that would be a real 1/1. One company with one set equals one card for one rich collector. Today's 1/1s are only limited by the product name of that company's release (UD Exquisite, UD Ultimate Collection, UD SP, etc.). Each of these sets can possess a 1/1 RC, nevermind the crap that Donruss is pulling within the DK product. 87 1/1s of Mike Mussina in one set is blasphemous. I digress.
If a compnay such as Upper Deck places a 1/1 LeBron RC into each of it's "products", then Upper Deck as a whole will release multiple 1/1s of that player's RC. As collectors, UD expects us to look at each product as its very own distinct brand. I disagree. They are all still Upper Deck cards. They market the crap out of each product hoping to make clear distinctions and many collectors buy into the marketing plan rather than the cards themselves.
The listed example of the 1/1 LeBron RC may be unique to the product that UD places it in, but with the next UD product release, you can bet their will be anbother 1/1 with a "game-used" patch that will usurp the perceived value of this card with a "rookie photo shoot" patch. UD will expect the even higher rollers will come out for that product. Where will this end? When collectors stop buying into the marketing and realize that the only "investors" making money on these cards are the card companies.
If you collect RCs because you like them, then what's the difference, really, between this LeBron and any other LeBron auto RC you can find? A savvy investor would buy the $500 or $1000 auto instead of the $20K auto. Why? Because a $500 card has a much greater chance of doubling in price than a $20K card.
I'm just rambling now, but hopefully you can understand my point. Thanks!
Tracy McGrady is a great player on a bad team. Who says he will ever win a championship in Orlando? Nobody. Nothing is certain. Just because Lebron is good, doesn't mean that he will ever win a championship. There's only one ring per year, and people like Ewing, Malone, and Barkley ( who were great ), will tell you that one guy doesn't win it all. they played for years and never won one.
I understand that other companies can make a ton of 1/1's, but that may be in the future. This particular year, lebron may have about 10 total ( rough guess ).
Don't get me wrong, great card and all, but $20,000+??? That's a downpayment on a house! Way too much of a gamble because of the possibility of injury. I really don't think you can say that this card could be worth like $50k 10 years down the road either. Even if he does go on to be a great one. The market is headed for disaster to be honest. It's about 1,000,000 times different from when Jordan was a rookie. Yeah, a 1/1 Jordan would have been the ultimate, but that's because the thought of that then was unheard of. It's so freakin' commonplace now. 10 years from now the Lebron will be under $5,000 I bet.
No matter how awesome a guy is, it's going to ultimately come down to Chamionships. Tracy McGrady/Allen Iverson are proof of that!
I would spend that 20k on about 11-12 '86 Fleer Jordan rookies PSA 9. Why gamble on a guy that "might be" the next Jordan, when you can have the real deal about 10x more in mint shape! And the '86-87 Fleer product isn't exactly overproduced either.
Here's a small list of can't miss guys:
Grant Hill
Eric Lindros
Shaquille O'Neal ( Great, but what are his rookies worth. He had a few rings, doesn't he? )
Josh Hamilton
Rick Ankiel
TheRoach
Good point, but people don't want old man Jordan's cards anymore. Sure he was great but kids
today have never seen him play and if they did they caught his not so graceful ending! Lebron
is everywhere and people want that, much the same way everyone wanted Tiger a year or
so ago. Keep in mind that after June, there will be no more 2004 basketball cards produced, sure
there are alot around now, but there will be a time when you can't pull a Lebron RC out of a high
end pack. This might be the last time you ever see this card! If UD can come out with a 500
dollar pack and by the looks of it sell out, then 20K is obviously not a lot of money anymore to
some people.
The hype and "what if" game is very strong today, would I play at that price?..heck no, but if people
are still paying that and more importantly making that, then that only makes the hobby stronger.
JS
<< <i>The hype and "what if" game is very strong today, would I play at that price?..heck no, but if people
are still paying that and more importantly making that, then that only makes the hobby stronger. >>
Kevin
Nail on head! This Isn't about whether the cost can buy 4 of this or 5 of that - it's about a special 1/1 that someone with the resources wants the bragging rights to at this time. I agree, at that price, the upside would be weak. I don't think this person cares about that. There isn't a person out there that wouldn't love to open and pack and see a 1/1 of their favorite player.
Mike
edit to add followup: the bidder that I talked to has since retracted his bid - there have been 6 and the current bidder has a neg for nonpayment - for those who have sold high end stuff - how much of a problems is this kind of behavior?
<< <i>Good point, but people don't want old man Jordan's cards anymore. >>
I disagree. Jordan's cards, and autos, are always going to be hot items. Look at Ebay, his cards may not be where they were a few years ago, but they are still among the top price draws. A proven legend versus a player who may be great someday(Lebron)? No contest.
2000 $37,000
2004 $ 5,000
I think anything that plentiful should never be so valuable. That is the difference with this Lebron card. It will never be that plentiful. One of one. All that is left is for Lebron James to meet all expectations of turning into Bird, Magic and Jordan all rolled into one.
Granted that this is a 1/1 card, but this kind of reminds me of 1985 when Dwight Gooden was proclaimed to be one of the best ever. His RC was being sold for big money at card shows. I remember a particular '85 Topps Gooden being sold at a show inside this special holder that said Rookie Card on it. The price tag was $30. That card today is worth, what 3 cents?
My 1952 Topps Baseball Set
My 1952 Topps Baseball Set
I collect both modern and vintage, the difference to me is that something rare in a vintage set has ACTUAL rarity, for example, Topps may have printed thousands of copies of 1952 Mantles, but through fires/floods/moms throwing away/kids flipping they have become rare in mid-high grade and command a premium. What the card companies are trying to do is to CREATE that same rarity and apply it to modern rookies. Because everyone knows about card prices and thus more people protect their cards straight from the packs, there would not be ACTUAL scarcity of Lebron rookies if Topps were to produce thousands like the 1952 Mantles. So out come the 1/1's and 1/10's.
I for one could care less about the 1/1's because the companies produce so many 1/1's that it would be a fools errand to try and collect them all. If each company produces a 1/1 auto'd Lebron we'd actually have something like 30 1/1 Lebrons out there. Topps, Topps Finest, Topps Chrome, UD SPA, SPX, Exquisite, Bowman Chrome, blah blah blah.
Bid retraction and cancellation history
Date of Bid and Retraction Action / Explanation User ID
Bid: May-09-04 14:10:08 PDT
Retraction: May-09-04 18:31:31 PDT Retraction:
Explanation: Entered wrong bid amount g-force5( 43)
Bid: May-13-04 09:00:12 PDT
Retraction: May-13-04 15:48:29 PDT Retraction:
Explanation: Entered wrong bid amount loyality1( 371)
Bid: May-11-04 16:26:55 PDT
Retraction: May-13-04 14:46:00 PDT Retraction:
Explanation: Entered wrong bid amount blez90( 273)
Bid: May-10-04 02:33:48 PDT
Retraction: May-10-04 02:40:32 PDT Retraction:
Explanation: Entered wrong bid amount gswarriors_gsw( 17)
Bid: May-10-04 18:38:58 PDT
Retraction: May-10-04 18:41:30 PDT Retraction:
Explanation: Entered wrong bid amount hallsito( 55)
Bid: May-09-04 14:29:16 PDT
Retraction: May-09-04 14:29:40 PDT Retraction:
Explanation: Entered wrong bid amount angels04champs( 0 )
<< <i>Explanation: Entered wrong bid amount loyality1( 371)
Bid: May-11-04 16:26:55 PDT >>
uniship
Here's a reply from this bidder - I had emailed him before the retraction about the allure of the card. Will this card actually sell for this price or will there be more accidental/regretters retractions?
<< <i> "Anderson Derek" <loyality1_ebay@yahoo.fr> Add to Address Book
Subject: Re: Message from eBay Member
To: mesablanca1110@yahoo.com
you wrote to me for the lebron 1/1 ultimate
i didnt bid on this card
my friend bidded on to track the item
he dont know that we can track item without bidding
i dont have money to pay this card
i also have 1/1 of my players (14 masterpiece of Derek Anderson and 2 of Ricky Davis) but i wouldnt pay more than 500$ for a card
i think there are things more important than paid for that
regards
Sieu
PS : i retracted my bid because i dont want this card and i dont have money for this
PPS : sorry for my bad english
mesablanca1110@yahoo.com wrote:
Message From eBay Member >>
I had also emailed the seller for his spin on the card - I have been very very polite and deferencial in my querry - my goal was to get a perspective - not to criticize - after all who am I to say how someone spends their 20K.
Mike
i agree with u, however I think some may have retracted cuz if the guy ahead of them retracts then maybe they could become the high bidder....
People can spend their money how they want, but I think spending big bucks on this and hoping he will become the greatest player ever is too big a gamble.
<< <i>People can spend their money how they want, but I think spending big bucks on this and hoping he will become the greatest player ever is too big a gamble. >>
Jay
I agree it's their money - that is why I am really interested in talking with a buyer and even a seller of one of these hi end cards and get their take on this issue. I am really curious to see what they have to say.
Mike
Reply by jblee: Ah, retaliation & harrassment. I DID pay, and EBAY knows it, so nice try.
lol don't ya just love seller's that leave negs like this? oh the card in question was a 10.00 item, the jblee guy is now the hi bidder for the lebron card at 16k............hmmmm
<< <i>Seller cancelled the auction with a few days to go. It looks like there were at least a few $17000 bids from bidders with decent feedback. I wonder whether the seller sold it off line for a fair amount. >>
Vincecarder probably made him an offer he couldn't refuse...