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What Would Happen to the Toned Coin Market if.............(coin posse related)
FrattLaw
Posts: 3,290 ✭✭
With all this talk of the "coin posse" I started to wonder this weekend.
What if they decided to take down a prominent coin doctor and in the process it was revealed that over the course of his career he was able to sneak 10,000 or more coins past the grading services and into slabs?
What ramifications would this have for the toned coin market, PCGS, NGC and the industry/hobby in general?
Would all of us toned coin people be cracking'em out and dipping'em? Would it matter to you? Would you continue to buy "monster" toned coins? Would "market acceptablity" finally die out as a standard?
Any thoughts,
Michael
What if they decided to take down a prominent coin doctor and in the process it was revealed that over the course of his career he was able to sneak 10,000 or more coins past the grading services and into slabs?
What ramifications would this have for the toned coin market, PCGS, NGC and the industry/hobby in general?
Would all of us toned coin people be cracking'em out and dipping'em? Would it matter to you? Would you continue to buy "monster" toned coins? Would "market acceptablity" finally die out as a standard?
Any thoughts,
Michael
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JB-everyone can be fooled, no matter how good you are nor how much experience you have.
and they're cold.
I don't want nobody to shoot me in the foxhole."
Mary
Best Franklin Website
I agree which is why I said 99% of the time.
but for some reason more bad guys and gals are still with us. I
believe this to be a noble effort and one that will certainly clean up some of the
problem but, we shall see what the passage of time will produce in the way of change.
Camelot
The posse won't take down anybody who will hurt the market or hobby. After all many if not most have to much invested in the status quo to upset the thing. They will go after those who will look good in the press but will not threaten the confidence of the buyers. Once that goes then say hello to a slow down or worse. The posse members would not want to erode the buyers condidence for if toning is the issue today then other types of doctoring are next and before you know it the value of a slabbed coin is in a tailspin.
&, i suspect, not necesarily all that unlikely....
K S
First don’t dip them that increase the chance they will get body bagged
No way! Once it is in a PCGS or NGC slabs you have a blanket over your investment.
There are lots of AT coins in slabs and most big tone dealers have lots of stories about how some of the coins were toned and later slabbed. In the 70’s there were lots of methods used that most of the certifiers have now picked up on, but many of the new chemicals out there are really undetectable, at least for now. All they do is create the same look that you would get from a coin in a 2x2 manila envelope for 25 years, except toning happens in 5 seconds.
As far as people volunteering to de- slab their coins that will not happen, and the older collections are safe.
The one instance that there might be danger for AT’S is re-submittals if new AT methods are discovered.
As far as the posse goes my guess is that they have no more experience with this than the current certifiers.
I can’t speak to what the PCGS graders know but the NGC graders just guess most of the time. If it’s a bad AT job they can tell, but if it’s new or very clever they just guess. I have submitted both coins that I knew the AT process, and they were slabbed, and coins that I knew came straight out of old cardboard books that had set for 30 years and they were body bagged!
given your scenario, i think there would be some stiff competition for some type of detection that could be done to a coin inside/outside of the holder which was practical. that way collectors and dealers could still pay exhorbitant prices with assurance that a coins tone was genuine. given the nature of the human animal, this would be a mechanical device of some kind since human accuracy is flawed despite claims to the contrary. such a device in all probability exists today, it just isn't practical to use, i would imagine because of cost and ease of availability to the general public.
all that aside, i really don't blame the coin doctors for the artificial toning debacle, i put the blame squarely on the shoulders of those that are eager to pony up the long dollar. let's face it, remove the market incentive to AT coins and the commodity will vanish, at least new product. it's just the free market system at work and unless i missed something, it's only unethical and not really illegal. sad but not unique.
an aside to JB, for someone who's only been dabbling in coins for a few years you sure racked up an impressive accuracy rating quick.
al h.
Take a dozen common date Unc Morgans and AT them. Maybe one looks incredible, three look pretty good, and the rest either look awful or questionable. Dip the bad ones and sell them for a small loss, sell the good ones for a big profit, lather, rinse, repeat. Has anyone ever studied if there is a disproportional amount of "great" toned Morgans that are common dates?
To the original hypothesis, if it was proven that a coin doctor had managed to get thousands of AT coins past the top services I think it would take the bloom off the rose with respect to toned coins, and the super-premiums would disappear. The slabs would certainly provide some insurance, but I think once an ongoing question of authenticity is present, a lot of the interest would go away.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
“Therefore they are declared to be NT and/or "market acceptable". Why not?”
Using the same chemicals that nature provides just speeds the process; it does not do anything that would not have happened over 25 years in the right condition. As far as using chemicals that would not be a natural process the certifiers are going to catch those anyway in most cases.
“ Has anyone ever studied if there is a disproportional amount of "great" toned Morgan’s that are common dates?”
If you go on ebay or by the tables of those that deal in large amounts of toned material you will find that there exists a huge disproportionate amount of common date toned coins both slabbed and unslabbed.
If you ask why, the answer is always” well they minted more of those”, but just try to find a rainbow-toned 84’s Morgan or a 93’s, not many of those rainbows around?
<< <i>an aside to JB, for someone who's only been dabbling in coins for a few years you sure racked up an impressive accuracy rating quick. >>
Thanks for the vote of confidence.
i've also wondered about the "proportionate" question. someone who knows the series or is just good with numbers could figure it out, but i suspect it's not a simple -- how many made, how many toned-- answer. one more reason for me to avoid the big bullion dollars, reason number 13 if memory serves me correctly.
al h.
<< <i>it was revealed that over the course of his career he was able to sneak 10,000 or more coins past the grading services and into slabs? >>
I think you can add a zeo or two to the number of AT'ed coins in slabs to be more realalistic- heck David Hall even said that proof buffalo nickel that is displayed in the PCGS grading book is AT! and it's still pictured in the latest edition! mike
<< <i>stiff competition for some type of detection that could be done to a coin inside/outside of the holder >>
I have already looked into that and it is technically possible, but still quite difficult. It would only pay in regards to the higher end coins. Probably $5000 coins and above costs would be about $300 per coin or perhaps less based upon volume to have it recertified as original.
<< <i>but many of the new chemicals out there are really undetectable, at least for now. >>
That's not exactly true. We can utilize spectro analysis to determine the chemical compound of a star as well as a surface contaminent on a coin. If there's been enough research on original toning then a simple comparison should do the trick. Basically the same chemicals found in a canvas mint bag from 1878 will not match the chemicals on a AT coin produced in 2001.
<< <i>All we have to go on is how they look. >>
Actually no, TPGs can use science to detect AT. Both PCGS & NGC utilize or has in the past used (I believe) scanning electron microscopes to determine the metallic composition of patterns, hence discovering new rarities. (The pattern guys will know more about this.)
<< <i>The slabs would certainly provide some insurance >>
In what way? Insurance that they were NT? Or insurance that they would buy back the coin? Perhaps this could lead to huge lawsuits if these coins were not bought back. Hall has said, buy PCGS coins, that way you will know they are NT. I'm sure an attorney could prove that there were scientific means that were available to test these coins and therefore failing to do so creates a liability for the TPG.
I'm not surprised that many of the major tone dealers aren't posting to this thread. This could be a huge liability for them. I think this has potential to really effect a whole market as well as the TPGs. And of course were's there's a crisis, there's new opportunities for business development.
Keep'em coming ---
Hey where's Laura and EVP? I'd love to hear their comments!
Michael
We will stop some of the currant abuses and the doctors will develope
new abuses. This doesnt mean that we shouldnt try to make things
better and keep on trying. One can become too cynical. It is sometimes
necessary to believe that things can be better and will be better.
If that thought doesnt bear fruit, then I can always rip off some arms and legs.
Camelot
The posse at least initially will only hang the metal movers, where the line is cut and dried, partner.
and they're cold.
I don't want nobody to shoot me in the foxhole."
Mary
Best Franklin Website
Camelot
<< <i>The hundreds of PCGS holdered coins I have helped get pretty tone by placing in old cardboard mint -set holders and subjected to a bit-o-xtra heat would probably be undetectable by atomic absorption or whatever (probably cost ineffective) method you would use. >>
You're probably right, but then again -- to me, that's not AT. While the conscious thought is there to tone the coin, replicability is not. I'm limiting my analysis to the mass produced, chemically purposefully altered coin, that can easily be replicated quickly. Your holders will not produce the same toning pattern on every coin they are used on. Matter of fact, more than likely out of a whole batch, perhaps 1-2 might have the color necessary for it to be considered attractive. You're not in my mind a coin doctor and not doing real harm.
<< <i>The posse at least initially will only hang the metal movers, where the line is cut and dried, partner. >>
I'm not quite sure what these means, but if the posse is only going after metal movers, then there effectiveness is really only benefiting the big dealers and the big time collectors. Not really a posse then, more like the Beverly Hills Police Force.
Michael
when was the last time you saw a large auction firm dedicate a whole diatribe to the marketing of an old-time "blast white" collection? you'll never see it. but wild'n'crazy colors are marketed to overeager coin buyers like jumbo bubble-gum pops are marketed to pre-acne middle-schoolers.
i've said this so many times, the key is simple: more $$$.
& it's not the coin doctors who are pushing $$$, it's coin "dealers".
K S
K S