Tougher PSA Standards = Higher Value on Vintage 7's?

scottsusor

For quite a while now, most PSA set builders have placed a much higher value on PSA 8's than on PSA 7's in building their sets. That's understandable since the PSA Set Registry makes it a competition of sorts -- to see who can get the highest rated set. But if we look at the recent (mandated or not) rise in PSA's vintage grading standards, will PSA set builders (and non PSA Set Registry participants, for that matter) start to take a fresh look at vintage PSA 7's? Not necessarily because they WANT to but because they HAVE to, due to a lack of availability of PSA 8's and 9's? Or will vintage PSA 7's forever remain the unwanted stepchild of PSA set building? Comments?

Scott

mariner

PSA 7's are beautiful cards. I think as time goes forward, they will become more coveted and will rise in value. Many times, there is very little difference between a 7 and an 8.

srs1a

My guess is that 7's will remain the unwanted stepchild. That being said, I believe that a nice 7 is the best value out there.

Scoop

I think it depends on the set and how many are collecting that set. As high-grade raw stuff dwindles and more and more collectors are building sets, the law of supply and demand will take over and 7's will come into play.

JIM

34GoudeyCollector

It definitely depends on the set. A 70's Topps Set in PSA-7 is probably not considered "High-End" by most collector's standards, however, apply that to a pre-war set (i.e. 34 Goudey).

IMO, PSA-7's will continue to rise in value for many years to come, especially the pre-war issues.

Ken

jaybyrd

For collectors that don't have unlimited resources to spend on cards, sevens are the best thing going for cards for 60's and early 70's cards. I just purchased a 69 Bench graded a seven, absolutely beautiful card just 65/35 top to bottom, no corner wear at all. Great value when you consider this card would probably be considered a near mint to mint card if it was not graded.

highend

for 50's and 60's commons PSA 7's will appreciate in value at a modest rate, the stars already command a decent price in relation to SMR value.
70's issues are another story.......the commons in PSA 8 for most issues most notably after 73 aren't even recouping grading cost. even the stars in PSA 8 are weak. it would take a very large influx of new collectors and virtual moritorium on PSA 8 and 9's for a psa 7 from any 70's issue (except 71) to be worth any thing close to a standard grading fee.
scott- i agree that a PSA 7 is a sharp card but for a couple of extra bucks your best bet is the PSA 8. even PSA 9's are VERY attainable, i've been picking up 72 topps bb 9's like crazy for 25-35 bucks on average. to think that 2 years ago i paid that for 75 topps psa 8's of eliott maddox, dick tidrow, sparky lyle etc. even worse, i recently sold a large lot of 75 topps (80) psa 8 dupes rose, palmer, stargell, gibson, brock, carlton, fisk etc........less than 500 bucks!

bill7549

Heck, I'd love to have 7's in my set. Even they are just too expensive though. I'd rather put together a nice set of 4's and 5's and complete the set within my lifetime as opposed to holding out for the more perfect cards.

Wabittwax

I definately think that vintage 7's can only go up in value. Their is a huge chunk of collectors with deep pockets who will die with their super high grade cards. Some will never be for sale again in our lifetimes. There is only so many Mint card to go around so the average guys like us will have to be happy with 7's because the prices of 8's and higher will be through the roof, thus creating a strong market for 7's.

scottsusor

Here's my thinking -- make of it what you will. I happen to agree with the majority that vintage 7's will become very much "in demand" during the next few years. But, not because 8's and 9's will be priced out of reach. Rather, I believe that the population of 8's and 9's will remain very flat over the next few years. A few more will get graded but a few more collectors will make up that difference. In the meantime, I foresee a much larger influx of less monied collectors looking to start collecting PSA graded complete sets -- NOTE, I said complete sets, not team sets, and not stars/superstars.

Why do I believe this to be the trend of the near future? Another major period of investment in baseball cards has just passed. In the past, these period have always been followed closely by a renewed interest in COLLECTING with many collectors returning to the hobby after being disenchanted with it for a while. However, this time, many will find the internet (and eBay) to be a major source of cards. And the best cards to buy sight unseen? Graded cards, of course. Personally, I believe there is a large segment of long-dormant collectors who have already started to return to the hobby. But this group won't have the money to build 8 and 9 level sets, nor will they want to. The 7 will become the level of choice for this group.

Or, maybe I'm just being overly optimistic. If I am, slam away!

Scott

mariner

very thoughtful analysis, Scott.

Vargha

Geez . . . like a compliment from a Mariners fan is worth anything.

mariner

Vargha....

Tell me about it....what is wrong with this picture? The lowly Rangers tearing up the league and we are bottom feeders. The secret to the Rangers was getting rid of A-Rod. Then again, we won 116 when we got rid of A-Rod. May the Yankees implode.

Vargha

One can only hope . . . heh.

Ripken

I think collecting the larger sets will still be a daunting task for most people that are sliding back into the hobby. Even at $4-5 apiece for commons, PSA 7 cards still mean you're paying $3000 and more for a 70s set. You may see a small influx of folks join in but I still think graded sets will be a niche. It will be collectors submitting them, though, if PSA continues to be so strict on vintage material. Dealers will give up if there's no $ to be made.

I do think, however, that PSA 7s will be the way to go on a lot of pre-72 material. Nice raw commons in that vintage are still hard to come by and when you find them, they're not cheap. When you can buy nice graded cards for a little more, it just makes sense.

Fabfrank

I do think, however, that PSA 7s will be the way to go on a lot of pre-72 material. Nice raw commons in that vintage are still hard to come by and when you find them, they're not cheap. When you can buy nice graded cards for a little more, it just makes sense.

I agree totally. Remember, before grading, PSA 7 type cards were considered mint and priced at full book. For the average collector, 7's are the best value in the market.

jrdolan

I agree with Mariner that often there is little separating a 7 from an 8, certainly not enough to justify the price difference. However ... a 7 can hold a great many more "problems" (print dots, faded color, etc) that don't become evident until you are holding it in your hand. That's why I think many people flock to the 8's and 9's when buying on the Internet, because they are relying more heavily on the grading company to supplement the eBay scan.

Unfortunately often we have to buy the grade, not the card, because in an eBay auction listing you can only make general judgments (centering for example) and after that you rely on the grade. Even then, there are 8's and there are 8's.

This is why I don't complain about paying a bit of a premium at a show. You get to take a test drive!

scottsusor

<< <i>... I still think graded sets will be a niche. It will be collectors submitting them, though, if PSA continues to be so strict on vintage material. Dealers will give up if there's no $ to be made. >>


I was sort of hoping somebody would bring up this point.

Often, we see somebody here on the boards who is giddy with excitement after buying a given common card "for the grading fee" (i.e. $5 to $8). And its not just newer stuff -- often its with vintage 50s, 60s and 70s cards. The buyer's excitement is understandable but I've always wondered what everybody else's reaction is. What I'm getting at is in line with what Ripkin observed. If those who submit lots of higher grade cards for grading can't make money on those submissions, is that a good thing for graded set builders in general?

Personally, I don't think it really is. Why? Because I perceive that graded card collecting is not exactly the same as raw card collecting. With raw card collecting, and raw set building, when a collector finds a needed card, that's it -- end of story. But if one is trying to assemble complete sets, they have to send every card found in for grading. And it must get the grade they want for their graded set's consistency or the entire effort was both futile and a waste of money in getting the card graded.

Meanwhile, dealers would be submitting a larger volume of cards, some getting 7's, some getting 8's, etc. If the collector is trying to assemble a set -- let's say for example a 1969 Topps complete set in NM 7 condition -- he'll have the ability to buy the already-graded PSA 7 he needs. But if he can get that card on eBay or by direct purchase for, say, $5 to $8 -- then the dealer submitting and selling the card has made virtually nothing on his investment in buying the card and paying to get it graded.

Like Ripkin observed, that would cause dealers to cease -- or at least cut way back on -- submitting commons. It would NECESSITATE collectors (who may not be experienced in pre-grading) doing all -- or most of -- the submitting. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? I tend to think its a bad thing because many collectors will get frustrated quickly with not getting the grades they think they should get, simply because they don't understand professional grading standards and they may become disillusioned with the idea of building a graded set before they ever really get started. It should be interesting to see how things go over the next few years.

Scott

Fabfrank

Good post Scott (as always). I agree on your feelings about graded common cards going for the submission price. I think that has more to do with vagaries of supply and demand. When dealers see a certain years cards getting premium prices, they'll submit till the supply overwhelms the current demand. Than prices drop, dealers stop submitting that year, till demand builds again. We've only seen the beginning of some of these cycles and some years cards haven't even gone through this yet.
I do disagree that once a raw card gets found and inserted into a set that it is forgotten. Even before grading, collectors were looking to upgrade their weak cards and improve their sets. The Registry has taken advantage of that inherent nature in most collectors, coupled it with our competitive juices and has produced a marketing coup.
It's the wise collector who takes advantage of a given sets low demand/price before demand increases and pushs prices up again.

scottsusor

<< <i>I do disagree that once a raw card gets found and inserted into a set that it is forgotten. Even before grading, collectors were looking to upgrade their weak cards and improve their sets. The Registry has taken advantage of that inherent nature in most collectors, coupled it with our competitive juices and has produced a marketing coup. >>


You're right, Frank -- Its definitely not forgotten. However, since the nature of the PSA Set Registry is for the collector/owner to work toward a complete set, its pretty much off the market. In most cases, I think I've used the term "locked" which connotates its new status as a component of a registered set, as opposed to remaining a "free agent" so to speak.

What's sort of interesting to me is that the PSA has created something that never came into play before professional card grading, and even more than just a population count. Its the ability to see how many of the TOTAL graded cards are "locked" into sets. Now, we know they are really only "temporarily" locked. But what I'm getting at is that never before were we really able to even take an educated guess at which cards were truly the TOUGH COMMONS (i.e. factory destruction by Topps, habitually miscut, etc.). Now we can. And anybody who thinks those "low pops" (aka TOUGH COMMONS) are just aberrations with many raw ones simply not yet graded -- couldn't be more wrong.

Scott

Fabfrank

Good post Scott. The registry does let us see which cards are hard to find and who has them. Knowledge is power and the registry and it's participants are a fountain of knowledge

grilloj39

I normally collect my sets mid-grade (4-6), but sometimes I will go after a set (60s or 70s hockey) in high grade. High grade to me is near-mint (7) or better. If I can keep my GPA above 7.0 I am satisfied in putting together a set. Near-Mint cards are just fine to me. Just like the name implies, "near-mint cards appear to be mint at first glance, however upon closer inspection...."