<< <i>This is unprecidented, but it does help to find out what some people are really made of.
..........and if you haven't noticed who's made of what, you haven't been paying attention. >>
Oh, I pay attention. Always do. No matter how much one pays attention, there will always be a suprise every so often.
Sometimes it's a good one, sometimes it's disappointing.
I'm still ahead in the PM game, just not as much as I once was. I still put more stock into PMs than I do collector coins. On coins I've really been ripped off by unscrupulous types, the numismatic world is full of those people, they've just about driven me away over the last 6 months. That, and a certain grading company which shall go unnamed here.
I fully understand the risks involved in PMs and I have accepted it and done just fine there. It's much more difficult to be without principles and get away with it when dealing in PMs.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
In my opinion, I feel that silver had already been "manipulated" or better stated overbought beyond the $6.50 to $7 price to the $8 price. It went up too fast and too far.
The price decline is a unwinding of the short term runup in price.
This is a classic correction. It may rebound but too early to determine that as yet as to when and how much.
I am curious, did anyone determine why Kitco had the error on their site? I also understand that a board member placed an order with them at the low, but incorrect, price. Was that price honored?
Lane
Numismatist Ordinaire See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
Hey Keets, Who knows where this is going and why, but it would be great to see gold at $300 and look at Platinum, 770.00 -28.00, down $130 plus in the last few weeks. Maybe we can get back in and pick up some cheap coins? If Gold will go to $300 and Platinum goes back to $500 those ounces common dates would be a nice addition to ones collection.
Oreville, take an empty 2 liter coke bottle, fill it 3/4 full with water, disolve two cups of sugar in the water, then put a few spoons full of yeast in it and cap it. As fermentation takes place, carbon dioxide is released but is unable to escape the container. After a day or two, the 2 liter bottle will explode, quickly and completely, as all the built up gas escapes.
Or take a balloon and continue to blow more and more air into it until the pressure becomes so great that the balloon pops. IF the silver market really is being manipulated and intentionally kept at low prices (make your own judgement about this), it stands to reason that when the manipulation (i.e. the bottle cap or the walls of the balloon) is removed, silver will quickly and completely seek out a new price. This time the manipulation wasn't ended, but the manipulators lost control of the market and it took them awhile to get control back.
Again, YOU decide, from the evidence out there, if you think short sellers are manipulating the price of silver. If you arrive at the conclusion they are, it is at least logical that the price could rise very quickly when dealers lose control of the market. Then again, perhaps that 550 million ounce short position is, quote "no big deal" as some have said. Everyone has an opinion
I heard they were making a French version of Medal of Honor. I wonder how many hotkeys it'll have for "surrender."
could you please explain why a 550 million ounce short position is a bad thing? I don't fully understand the silver market. (actually, I don't understand it at all)
Annual silver production is only 500 million ounces and COMEX silver inventories are only 100 million ounces. When you sell silver short, eventually you will have to buy it back (hopefully at a lower price). When the shorters try to cover their shorts, they will all be competing for the same 100 million ounces of silver. Or to put it differently, the entire world would have to STOP consuming silver for an entire year in order for the shorters to cover their positions.
I heard they were making a French version of Medal of Honor. I wonder how many hotkeys it'll have for "surrender."
So if I wanted to short sell 1 million ounces of silver, I would have a contract at, let's say $7/ounce that is due in 6 months. I would be speculating that silver would be at $6/ounce at the 6 month expiration? Is that how it works?
ddink: I think you misunderstood me. Silver is currently in a wild traders yo-yo spectrum . There is a tug of war between those that are extremely bullish on silver and those that are extremely bearish on silver. There is a wide disparity in their views at the moment. Very little common ground. Those who are standing on the sidelines are either watching or trading on momentum up and down.
I happen to be strong on silver but it is vacilating widely from from overbought to oversold.
Good things like silver cannot be hurried. It needs to bide its time like fine wine.
<< <i>So if I wanted to short sell 1 million ounces of silver, I would have a contract at, let's say $7/ounce that is due in 6 months. I would be speculating that silver would be at $6/ounce at the 6 month expiration? Is that how it works? >>
Yep! You sell it today, buy it later. So you just made $1 million. BUT if you get a short contract at $7 and it goes up to $8, you lost $1 million.
I heard they were making a French version of Medal of Honor. I wonder how many hotkeys it'll have for "surrender."
Yep! You sell it today, buy it later. So you just made $1 million. BUT if you get a short contract at $7 and it goes up to $8, you lost $1 million.
So, these 8 players with a combined 550 million ounce short position......they must also have a combined big set of balls. Right?
Hmmmm. I think that I am getting this now. If I had millions....potentially billions....of dollars hinging on the spot price of silver in a few months, I would probably try to figure out a way to manipulate the silver market to protect myself. Hence the continued drop in the silver spot price. Somebody's short contract must be expiring soon.
Oh Dennis: I can't believe that you would even consider such a thing Nah, no way anybody would EVER try to manipulate the Silver Market Price for their own personal financial gain
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
<< Hmmmm. I think that I am getting this now. If I had millions....potentially billions....of dollars hinging on the spot price of silver in a few months, I would probably try to figure out a way to manipulate the silver market to protect myself. Hence the continued drop in the silver spot price. Somebody's short contract must be expiring soon. >>
Exactly, now take this a step further. When you sell silver short, the market has to find buyers for that much paper silver, so when they sell silver short, they are actually flooding the market with paper silver that does not exist! So once the price gets to say $8 an ounce and I want the price of silver to go back down, I just short sell another 100 million ounces of silver. This drives the price of silver down and convinces the speculators that they need to sell their silver since the price is collapsing. When everyone starts selling and nobody is buying, you are "selling into a void" and the price continues to fall until someone decides to buy the silver that is being sold.
Equlibrium in a market is achieved when there are the same number of buyers and sellers for the commodity. When short sellers sell silver that doesn't exist, hoping to buy it back later and make a profit, they are essentially creating silver to drive down the price--kinda like the government just printing more money. One of these days the bubble will have to pop. It's just a question of "when?"
I heard they were making a French version of Medal of Honor. I wonder how many hotkeys it'll have for "surrender."
Silver prices can remain extremely volatile for some time. There is physical silver being bought up by investors, speculators, and industrial users. At some point there may be a demand exerted on the Comex silver in which case they would also need to start buying the metal or discontinue trade in the contract. One thing is certain and that is that in the real world it is impossible to indefinitely consume more of something than what is produced. While silver supplies really are pro- digious so is the appetite for silver in the modern world. Production is probably not very flexible in case of price increases and demand also tends to be inflexible and growing.
It doesn't matter whether the bulls or the bears are right, the price is likely to remain very volatile.
Comments
What in the World is going on, Gold is at $384, Silver at $5.85, the Dow down 135, and nasdaq below 2,000 again?
Very strange vibbs out there, I am sure with all this happening coins are up today again.
<< <i>This is unprecidented, but it does help to find out what some people are really made of.
..........and if you haven't noticed who's made of what, you haven't been paying attention. >>
Oh, I pay attention. Always do. No matter how much one pays attention, there will always be a suprise every so often.
Sometimes it's a good one, sometimes it's disappointing.
I'm still ahead in the PM game, just not as much as I once was. I still put more stock into PMs than I do collector coins. On coins I've really been ripped off by unscrupulous types, the numismatic world is full of those people, they've just about driven me away over the last 6 months. That, and a certain grading company which shall go unnamed here.
I fully understand the risks involved in PMs and I have accepted it and done just fine there. It's much more difficult to be without principles and get away with it when dealing in PMs.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I happen to like old US silver coins like VF-AU Mercs, and walkers as a preferred way to own silver.
They have been rising in value and slowly insulating themself from the ups and down of silver bullion prices.
I have said this many times before. There is collecdtor interest in these old coins in addition to the silver content value.
The price decline is a unwinding of the short term runup in price.
This is a classic correction. It may rebound but too early to determine that as yet as to when and how much.
Lane
See http://www.doubledimes.com for a free online reference for US twenty-cent pieces
al h.
Who knows where this is going and why, but it would be great to see gold at $300 and look at
Platinum, 770.00 -28.00, down $130 plus in the last few weeks. Maybe we can get back in and pick up some cheap coins? If Gold will go to $300 and Platinum goes back to $500 those ounces common dates would be a nice addition to ones collection.
Or take a balloon and continue to blow more and more air into it until the pressure becomes so great that the balloon pops. IF the silver market really is being manipulated and intentionally kept at low prices (make your own judgement about this), it stands to reason that when the manipulation (i.e. the bottle cap or the walls of the balloon) is removed, silver will quickly and completely seek out a new price. This time the manipulation wasn't ended, but the manipulators lost control of the market and it took them awhile to get control back.
Again, YOU decide, from the evidence out there, if you think short sellers are manipulating the price of silver. If you arrive at the conclusion they are, it is at least logical that the price could rise very quickly when dealers lose control of the market. Then again, perhaps that 550 million ounce short position is, quote "no big deal" as some have said. Everyone has an opinion
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<< <i>Does that mean that investors have a combined short position of 550 ounces? At what price level? >>
Yes, as of the last COT, eight dealers were short a combined 550 million ounces, though I'm not sure at what price level (that isn't specified).
Our eBay auctions - TRUE auctions: start at $0.01, no reserve, 30 day unconditional return privilege & free shipping!
Our eBay auctions - TRUE auctions: start at $0.01, no reserve, 30 day unconditional return privilege & free shipping!
I happen to be strong on silver but it is vacilating widely from from overbought to oversold.
Good things like silver cannot be hurried. It needs to bide its time like fine wine.
<< <i>So if I wanted to short sell 1 million ounces of silver, I would have a contract at, let's say $7/ounce that is due in 6 months. I would be speculating that silver would be at $6/ounce at the 6 month expiration? Is that how it works? >>
Yep! You sell it today, buy it later. So you just made $1 million. BUT if you get a short contract at $7 and it goes up to $8, you lost $1 million.
So, these 8 players with a combined 550 million ounce short position......they must also have a combined big set of balls. Right?
Hmmmm. I think that I am getting this now. If I had millions....potentially billions....of dollars hinging on the spot price of silver in a few months, I would probably try to figure out a way to manipulate the silver market to protect myself. Hence the continued drop in the silver spot price. Somebody's short contract must be expiring soon.
Our eBay auctions - TRUE auctions: start at $0.01, no reserve, 30 day unconditional return privilege & free shipping!
Nah, no way anybody would EVER try to manipulate the Silver Market Price for their own personal financial gain
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
Hmmmm. I think that I am getting this now. If I had millions....potentially billions....of dollars hinging on the spot price of silver in a few months, I would probably try to figure out a way to manipulate the silver market to protect myself. Hence the continued drop in the silver spot price. Somebody's short contract must be expiring soon.
>>
Exactly, now take this a step further. When you sell silver short, the market has to find buyers for that much paper silver, so when they sell silver short, they are actually flooding the market with paper silver that does not exist! So once the price gets to say $8 an ounce and I want the price of silver to go back down, I just short sell another 100 million ounces of silver. This drives the price of silver down and convinces the speculators that they need to sell their silver since the price is collapsing. When everyone starts selling and nobody is buying, you are "selling into a void" and the price continues to fall until someone decides to buy the silver that is being sold.
Equlibrium in a market is achieved when there are the same number of buyers and sellers for the commodity. When short sellers sell silver that doesn't exist, hoping to buy it back later and make a profit, they are essentially creating silver to drive down the price--kinda like the government just printing more money. One of these days the bubble will have to pop. It's just a question of "when?"
being bought up by investors, speculators, and industrial users. At some point
there may be a demand exerted on the Comex silver in which case they would also
need to start buying the metal or discontinue trade in the contract. One thing is
certain and that is that in the real world it is impossible to indefinitely consume
more of something than what is produced. While silver supplies really are pro-
digious so is the appetite for silver in the modern world. Production is probably
not very flexible in case of price increases and demand also tends to be inflexible
and growing.
It doesn't matter whether the bulls or the bears are right, the price is likely to
remain very volatile.