Am I about to get ripped off for $3200??

hoolman

New to the boards I realized the message title I just previously posted didn't even interest me; I can't imagine it would anyone else, so I hope you will forgive the double post.
But can anyone tell me if I am about to make a really stupid purchase or a potentially good one...
A rep from Stanford financial got me to agree to buy a 1930 MS65 Danzig Gold coin for $3200
I would be making the purchase from an investment reasons. I got a big song and dance about the value and value potential of this coin and suddenly realized I didn't know anything about it. I couldn't find any info about it other than on Stanfords website. I said I "would" purchase it as soon as American Express sends me my check for $3500, but have not sent them any $$ yet. I'm curious if anyone has any knowledge of this coin.

Anyone have any worthwhile comments for me? You guys are the pros...

Thanks

Hool

trozau

Here's one on eBay unslabbed for less.

JohnZ

I wouldn't buy one of those raw if I were you, unless you had a written guarantee from the seller that he would accept a return if the coin were bodybagged. They have a strong history of being counterfeited, especially in the Ukraine.

cladking

Unless I'm confused this coin was just found in a small hoard a couple years back.
If true it could be years before the market stabilizes and goes up for such a coin.

As a general rule coins are not good investment vehicles. There are many people
who believe that we are in a unique historical period and many coins are poised to
make good advances for many years. Whatever the reality collecting is a lot of fun
and there is no way to do it wrong. Whatever tack you take, good luck.

MacCrimmon

Big Jeff should know a counterfeit or not....I said "should".

As to Stanford Fin.; I don't know anything specific except they just hit the airwaves with a big ad campaign in Chicago hawking the usual suspects.

Did the guy use language like, "this is a 'special situation!"? Frankly, I would not touch it with a 10-foot pole.

Edited to add: If you want one, contact jeffone and offer him 5% under the $2350, say $2235 including reg./ins. mail. You'll save a $1000 or so. You can then spend a 100 bucks on a nice "giveaway" coin....

Refrema

Personally, My vote would be don’t do it.

If it is to complete or add to something you collect, than it is your decision. If it is strictly for an investment, than my vote would be to pass.

I have made a couple purchases from Financial Investment Companies, but they were for items that I wanted, not for what they were trying to sell me. Usually, they are the ones that make the profit.

JohnZ also has great advice.

Good Luck,
Bob

hoolman

Appreciate your reply, and everyone elses. The seller has guaranteed a buyback of $2750. It is an NGC slabbed coin. I saw the ebay coin but noticed it was a standard raw BU and not a slabbed coin. But of course those two things don't mean a whole lot when it comes to growth potential. I just couldn't find any place else I could sell the coin.

JohnZ

Danzig gold is scarce. I can tell you that with all assurance, as my darkside specialization is Polish numismatics.

The market on these coins will always be very strong in my opinion.

I'm just repeating the advice that I received from a number of reputable dealers in Warsaw.

P.S. Mac, these coins are so scarce that even a reputable dealer could easily confuse a good counterfeit for the real thing.

Askari

I agree with what's been said here, so I won't add more than I did to your other thread on this topic other than to note that there have been fake slabs reported, but I've only heard it with respect to rare US coins. If they're making a big media blitz, well, keep in mind that that is quite expensive. Maybe this one is a reasonable deal designed to gain clients. I'd still really read the terms and conditions on their offer very closely.

hoolman

John Z.

Thanks very much. Your comments do change things for me a bit. I will do further research in that direction. The terms of the deal will arrive in the mail perhaps tomorrow. I will nail down who the slabber is.

JohnZ

Hoolman: enable your private messaging function, and PM me if you need to.

I would like to at least see the coin in question. I have a number of Polish numismatic sources and I would be able to tell you if it's an obvious fake. I would not, however, be able to tell you if it were a subtle one.

Placid

Here are a couple that have sold. I don't know squat about them just that they are Danzing.

1

2

I would think that ngc would have someone working there that can spot fakes pretty well.

MacCrimmon

John Z., you're on top of it.

Regarding the Danzig fakes, I would hope they've identified the key diagnostics for the fakes. How long ago did these fakes start showing up? Maybe Omega is still out there plying his trade.

JohnZ

OK, lot's of questions to answer...

I'll start with Mac. The fakes started appearing back in the seventies. Coin collecting is VERY BIG in Poland. (It might have to do with the lack of television channels, although that doesn't hold true today.) But whenever anything is very big, you're going to get your handful of con artists trying to capitalize on the demand.

Several Polish dealers have informed me that a hoard of fakes was uncovered at that time, which had come from the Ukraine. The situation is analogous to the fake Trade Dollars that appeared at the Hong Kong International a few years back.

I know nothing of the diagnostics, but I'm told that the fakes exhibited the "usual" characteristics of cast counterfeits. If that's true, I would first look for perturbations in the field, and then anomalies in the devices.

I'll post this for now and then answer some more questions to come.

JohnZ

Placid: thank you for the links.

I have no doubt that NGC can discern the difference between an authentic coin of this species and a counterfeit.

That being said, I will question their ability to grade the coins. Has your average NGC grader (or any grader for that matter) seen ENOUGH of these coins to know the difference between wear and a weak strike? What exactly is the difference between a 63 and a 64 and a 62?

Just asking....

JohnZ

Now, let me finally address your question, Hool, but please understand this is only one man's opinion.

If the coin is indeed authentic, I would not hesitate to pay $3200 for it, but I am a collector of Polish coins. I have frequently paid very strong money for the coins that I have wanted, despite what any pricing guide had to say. (Krause has no clue on this stuff.)

But I understand that you are looking primarily at investment potential. You need to know that your market for the resale of this coin will be very small. Only a handful of people in the world are currently interested in Danzig gold, and they're probably all on this forum. That may or may not be a good thing, but it is important information.

If you're looking for more bullion, this purchase is definitely a bad idea. But if you're looking for rare gold as a collectible, then that opens a Pandora's Box, raising the question of whether you want something to appreciate on the bullion market or the collectible market.

We could write a book on that.



Again, this is only one man's opinion.

Placid

According to the ngc web site they have graded 1584 of them.
Ken Krah is supposed to be the world coin grader there not that the name means anything to me.

Here is a link to the info. Link

I don't know how scarce that is in world coin terms but in U.S. coin terms that would be a r1 coin.
r1=common.
This of course is assuming that ngc's info is correct.
How many were minted?

There is this place hereselling them for$2,950.00 in 64.Claiming he bought 2000 of them and had them graded by pcgs or ngc. Someone found a hoard of them maybe.

From the web site.

"The coins are amazing! They are all in exceptional uncirculated condition because they were never released after being minted. They have been stored undisturbed for virtually 70 years. In fact, the coins all grade at least MS64 (a much higher grade than the MS60 list price in the catalog) and are authenticated by a third party grading service (either PCGS or NGC). One other incredible feature of the coins is their surfaces. They all have blazing mirror-like surfaces because the dies only struck 4000 coins! They are referred to as "business strikes" because the dies were still so new".

1jester

Don McAlvany is one guy I'd trust. On the other hand, if such a hoard has been discovered (and I think it's highly probable), wouldn't that negatively affect the long-term potential of that particular date?

JohnZ

I'm not sure if it would, Jester. Considering the low mintage numbers and the rather exotic nature of Danzig gold, finding a hoard may not disturb the market one bit. I'm reminded of the hoard of 1856 flyers that came onto the market back in the 70's. I forget the name of the collection, but prices remained very strong because of the demand.

Thanks for that additional info Placid. Perhaps NGC is in fact more knowledgable about these coins than I give them credit for.

Askari

There was indeed a hoard discovered a half decade or so ago; I remember reading about it. That is probably what that one dealer bought -- and half the production at that (which would definitely tend to suppress the prices since there's surely not more than a 100 folks worldwide interested in buying them). If the sales guy's coin is accurately graded, then that would be a fair price for the grade, based on Placid's links. I don't know that it would be a good investment, though, for the same reasons John laid out. For one reason, the world coin market doesn't play with the fancy-schmancy 11-point MS grading scale popular in the US for US coins. For these coins, since they never circulated, most should be MS63-65, which is what most "as struck" coins would have started out, so you're not talking a big premium in any case.

MrEureka

I don't know what these coins are worth, but I will tell you that 2000 pieces sounds like an awful lot for the market to absorb. Does anyone know what these coins were worth before the hoard was discovered? How rare was the coin before the hoard appeared?

As for the 56 Flying Eagles, that was the John Beck Collection. He had 531 pieces, I think.

hoolman

Wow, you guys are great - appreciate the discussion. My "advisor" at Stanford seemed to expect me to have done a web search. When I told him I did a little research he immediately piped up and told me I found Don McAlvany - which I hadn't yet but probably would have. In any event the Stanford rep told me that they (Stanford) sold McAlvany all the Danzigs he had and that he (McAlvany) didn't have any more. Maybe I'm parsing McAlvany's words too much but he says that "...all coins grade at least MS64 and are authenticated by a third party grading service" What in the world does he mean by "AND" are authenticated. In a world where "is" doesn't mean "is" anymore I find this wording not defintive enough. They are either graded MS65 by NGC or PCGS or their not; he doesn't definitively say. Perhaps I will just contact him and ask.

The link I got from Stanford for a pic if you scroll down a bit - http://www.nachinese.com/Coins/danzig_coin_e.htm looks like an ICG graded coin. If thats the case, and it's not NGC or PCGS - I think I'm definitely out. One of the pic links Placid provided was an auction in 2001 for an MS65 (NGC) that went for over $3500. I'm pretty sure spot gold was under $300 then. I realize this is a collectible and not bullion but doesn't the price of bullion impact the collectibles? Isn't that what the St.Gaudens double eagle thing is all about? Bullion or collectible, I really don't care, I'm just looking for some growth. Possibly I need to stay on the bullion side where I'm comfortable and alittle more knowledgeable. This just feels like a round at the blackjack table.Text

hoolman

Supposedly there are only about 4000 of these coins known to exist.

Placid

<< <i>I don't know what these coins are worth, but I will tell you that 2000 pieces sounds like an awful lot for the market to absorb. Does anyone know what these coins were worth before the hoard was discovered? How rare was the coin before the hoard appeared?

As for the 56 Flying Eagles, that was the John Beck Collection. He had 531 pieces, I think. >>



That Don McAlvany's page claims.

2. They catalog for $9500 in Krause's 2001 Standard Catalog of World Coins in MS60 uncirculated condition.

Coins auctioned in 2000 realized:

$8250 (Stacks New York Auction Feb. 16, 2000)
$8400 (GrYn's Auction Germany May 29, 2000)
(or 17,500 Deutsche Marks)

trozau

<< <i>The link I got from Stanford for a pic if you scroll down a bit - http://www.nachinese.com/Coins/danzig_coin_e.htm looks like an ICG graded coin. If thats the case, and it's not NGC or PCGS - I think I'm definitely out. >>


Yep, slab on the picture is ICG. From the coin specs, it is a sovereign clone.

JohnZ

Placid, those were probably the 1923 proofs, of which only 200 were minted.

The mintage on the 1930's was 4000, and they were all business strikes.