Options
OT - Anyone got a derby pick?
Spigrimace
Posts: 134
Post your pick!
I'm thinking Lion Heart.
Also, I had about 12 high-grade derby programs from the 50's & 60's that I bought 1990-ish for $40-100 each. eBay is paying rediculous money for them now and I sold them all in the last few months in the $200-600 range. So if you have any horse racing memorabilia in the attic, now may be the time to sell as prices have skyrocketed.
I'm thinking Lion Heart.
Also, I had about 12 high-grade derby programs from the 50's & 60's that I bought 1990-ish for $40-100 each. eBay is paying rediculous money for them now and I sold them all in the last few months in the $200-600 range. So if you have any horse racing memorabilia in the attic, now may be the time to sell as prices have skyrocketed.
0
Comments
email bcmiller7@comcast.net
But I will save putting my money on them for the Saratoga turf, although Tapit is tempting after winning the Wood easier than the photos will tell you...but the Ragozin theories will tell you this one will fall flat in the Derby....so will I.
With 2 wins over the track and a "hole in the wind" Beyer of 111, lots of $$ will be put on 'The Cliffs Edge', that money won't be mine, but he should get his name called a few times through the early fractions.
I like 'Action this Day' .........if he goes, and it looks like he will.
no sense playing favorites
seabiscuit
seriously though, Tapit will win
As for the roans, I seem to win the derby only with them! My last 2 derby winning picks were Monarchos & Silver Charm.
I'm thinking dual qualifiers have been in mothballs long enough. if you want to see who they are go to www.chef-de-race.com
Not too many looking at the Illinois Derby victor. 107 beyer shoud be worth a look although he didn't beet nothing.
I tend not to use Beyer numbers for horses this young, stretching out, and in a huge field (presumably).
Horses don't know history (save for Mr. Ed)......and the dosage numbers look good, plus a few mediocre outings could set up a big run.
As I said, I'd lay off anything 6-1 or shorter, always have, always will.
I think the Derby is always one of the worst races you could choose to handicap correctly.......fun, but a real lottery compared to other graded stakes races...and therin lies the beauty.
You want to make $$ come to Saratoga.
besides, I'll change my mind a dozen times before......they're off.
I did not realize that 7 of the last 9 winners we're 'Raise a Native' Sire bloodlined. Of course between he and Northern Dancer, most of the horses in Kentucky can be accounted for.
surprisingly, I see that my pick is a DQ
When he published the Dosage Index in 1981, Dr Steve Roman proposed that when analysing the Kentucky Derby, one should use the index in conjunction with the Experimental Free Handicap - the ranking of two year olds compiled by the Jockey Club,based on a hypothetical race at 1 1/16 miles in the spring for 3-year-olds on dirt.
This process would unearth what Roman labelled "Dual Qualifiers" - horses with a Dosage Index (DI) of 4.00 or less who were ranked within ten pounds of the high-weight on the Handicap;
"The Dual Qualifiers are blessed with staying pedigrees as expressed in their DI, and an advanced degree of class and maturity as reflected by their superior performance at two and acknowledged by their positions on the EFH."
Dual Qualifiers have captured 21 of the 32 Derbies in which they have appeared. (65%). Thirteen have finished second and nine have run third. Overall, 39% of all Dual Qualifiers have finished in the money. Moreover, a straight two dollar win bet on each Dual Qualifier, has yielded a 61% profit over the years.
For the 2004 Experimental Handicap, only those horses who finished at least fourth in a graded or unrestricted stakes worth at least $75,000 in the United States were eligible to be weighted. The leading Dual Qualifiers are; Action This Day (126), Cuvee (126), Ruler's Court (126), Birdstone (124), Lion Heart (123), Eurosilver (122), Chapel Royal (121), Silver Wagon (120), Perfect Moon (119), Siphonizer (119), Read the Footnotes (118), The Cliff's Edge (117) and Tiger Hunt (116).
Critics of the Dual Qualifying system point out that since the stakes performance restrictions were instituted in the late 1980s the theory has lost some credibility, not least; as the last six Derby winners were not weighted and thus, not Dual Qualifiers. (The most recent dual qualifier to win the Derby was Silver Charm in 1997). They surmise that the theory often forces punters to discard lightly raced two year olds, that are open to considerable improvement. All eyes down for the 2004 showdown!
muddy track won't help, but I'm down for a nickel and a nail anyways.
lost : one nickel and one nail ........didn't even finish
so much for dosage.
just glad Imperialism didn't win so I don't have to see his trainer on espn again, man she's annoying
email bcmiller7@comcast.net
I didn't bet the favorite, I bet the Philly
...gotta save face
fortunately nobody ever listens to me anyhow
RobBob
Julips on me!