COIN MARKET CYCLES

LAWMAN

"Here's the approximate cycles of the last 31 years. Between 1970 and 1974, coin prices went up 350%. Between August, 1974 and August, 1976, coin prices went down 40%. Between August, 1976 and March, 1980, coin prices went up about 1,000%. Between April, 1980 and July, 1982, coin prices went down 70%. Between August, 1982 and June, 1986, coin prices went up 400%. Between July, 1986 and December, 1987, coin prices went down 30%. Between January, 1988 and June, 1989, coin prices went up 300%. Between July, 1989 and December, 1994, coin prices went down 70%. Between January, 1995 and August, 1999, coin prices went up 18%. Between September, 1999 and December, 2000, coin prices went down 8%. In the first six months of 2001, coin prices have moved up about 2%. It is important to note that the rare coin market has been relatively flat for the past seven years. The reason for this is that most Americans' discretionary “investment” funds have been used to buy stocks. We have, after all, just been through the greatest bull market in the history of the stock market. But, as everyone should realize by now, that bull market is over and one could certainly make an argument that the coin market is ripe and ready for an up-cycle. "
-- FROM DAVID HALL'S INSIDER ARTICLE

What are the % figures from the first 6 mo's of 2001 through April of 2004?? (ie, since the dot-bombs went away)

RYK

I am not sure if I buy that analysis. Assuming I did the calculations correctly, DH suggests that the coin market (however he chose to define it) was up nearly 18-fold from 1970 to 2001.

LAWMAN

Agree -- I want to hear from the number crunchers on here. Something doesn't compute.

cladking

Much always depends on how you define the market. Just as the Dow averages
are constantly being based on different stocks, the coin market cycles not only in
levels but also what constitutes those levels. Unlike the stock market though, at
least coins which no longer figure in the levels retain most of heir value in mnost
all cases. Stocks, on the other hand, tend to represent companies which go out
of business and leave their holders will nothing or very little.

The overall market has probably done a little better than doubling since the mid-'01.

edsondl

Based on the values given by Lawman, I computed an increase of 40.5 times, ie $100 of coins bought in 1970 would be worth about $4,150 in 2001.

Looking at this article (or advertisement hype) Link, they contend an increase of 57 times over the same period. (However, their graph is a little difficult to read to find the years and it appears that their original $1000 in 1970 was worth $0 and the plot for the stock market doesn't look right between 1997 and 2001)

I agree with Clad King, that just as with the stock market, it depends on which coins one chooses to follow as a basis for analysis. As any poloitician knows, what you make of statistical numbers depends on how you decide to make them.

mrearlygold

Anybody know what happened in the general real estate market in 1976-1981?

Just trying to add some comparisons.

Rgrds
TP

NoGvmnt

I come up with 33.15 times the money:


Start $100.00

70 - 74 up 350% = $450.00

74 - 76 down 40%, $450.00 - 40% ($180.00) = $270.00

76 - 80 up 1000%, $270.00 + 1000% = $2,970.00

80 - 82 down 70% ($2,079.00) = $891.00

82 - 86 up 400%, $891.00 + 400% = $3,564.00

86 - 87 down 30%, ($1,069.20) = $2,494.80

88 - 89 up 300%, $2,494.80 + 300% = $7,484.40

89 - 94 down 70%, ($6,985.44) = $2,993.76

95 - 99 up 18%, $2,993.76 + $538.88 = $3,532.64

99 - 2000 down 8%, ($282.61) = $3,250.03

2001 up 2%, $3,250.03 + $65.00 = $3,315.03


Jim