the market for psa 8 1965-75 = dirt poor
thejam
Posts: 164 ✭
cruising thru ebay and cards are flat not selling
0
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On the other hand, as competition increases to "have the best possible set" the prices of psa 9's would continue to increase or at least stabilize due to the competitive nature of collecting. Over the past 2 years psa 9's from the 1963 baseball set have risen drastically and psa 9's from the 1965 set are also up while psa 8's are down for both sets. As you move into the mid 70's I think you'll see 8's become routinely worth less than grading fees for commons. Just my thoughts.
Wayne
As far as late 60's material goes strong cards will get support; high POPs will struggle.
Look to pick up a few bargains on a holiday weekend, however.
RayBShotz
CU turns its lonely eyes to you
What's the you say, Mrs Robinson
Vargha bucks have left and gone away?
hey hey hey
hey hey hey
Wayne
RayBShotz
What you are saying makes perfect sense to me. It's simple supply and demand. 9's will always command a premium because there are less of them. A natural bidding war happens. I've been watching the recent 1968 Tigers that are PSA 9. They go for at least 10 times what the 8's sell for. that's a lot of cash for one grade up...
Jim
It has been documented that a full set of 1965s does sell at approx SMR.
My suggestion would be to buy 1965 commons in PSA 8 only if you are planning to complete the set as a WHOLE. That is were the true value lies in PSA 8s. .
John
I agree with you completely..... As a set 8's generally sell close to or over SMR, providing you are a patient seller. I also see a lot of peaks and valleys in the pricing of mid 60's to mid 70's PSA 8's. And this is normal as collectors finish sets,or no longer need a particular the competition diminishes and the price fluctuates. Although PSA 9's as a rule generally are more stable in pricing there are still siginifcant price flucuations vs SMR for PSA 9's.
I'm auctioning 72, 73 and 75 lots this way right now & am at least somewhat encouraged by the interest. I don't expect to make much--if anything--but it saves both buyer and seller some time and aggravation and puts the grading fee back in my pocket more quickly.
I've been watching some of the lots lately of psa 8's and it seems that they might even bring a small premium verses individual sales. I certainly can't see that they sell for a discount being sold in this manor.
Wayne
One of my more stellar "wins" was an SGC 86 Berra I got from that clown in Oregon that crossed to a PSA 8. He later banned me from his auctions when I tried to return a MINT '68 with an undisclosed surface paper chip. I guess his "try a few and see" and "satisfaction guaranteed" policies didn't apply to me.
Nothing like having your cake and eating it too though, I guess. More people will be buying/collecting graded material in the future. So, even if those bundles of raw stuff do come out and get graded, guess what? -- the demand will also be higher. Its a natural evolution in graded card collecting. First it was stars only. Then it was semi-stars. Then it was team sets. Then (now) it was/is complete sets. Give me some evidence that this obvious trend WON'T continue and grow, and I'll take it all back. But if you can't, then don't try.
Scott
<< <i>Just a quick comment -- a lot of the crap in this thread is why I stopped posting here -- and am quickly getting tired of even coming here just to read stuff. And I don't think anybody can accuse ME of being negative toward anything or anybody. Am I the only one? I doubt it. >>
Scott,
I can't anymore prove that fewer people will be buying graded cards in the future anymore than you can prove that more people will be buying them. Is there a lot of raw material out there - I would bet a 1953 topps collector would have a far different answer than a 1986 topps collector. If you are referring to my post about mid 70's material then I will stand by my post where I inferred that there is a lot of raw material out there. I can also prove that supply has exceeded demand by the drop in ebay prices for psa 8's.
Wayne
Wayne wrote the following:
<< <i>I can also prove that supply has exceeded demand by the drop in ebay prices for psa 8's. >>
.
With the 1965's this is FACT. I personally have bought cards 2+ years ago for twice (or higher) what they sell for today.
Please let us know which sets that you have personally bought from 1965-1975 where the PSA 8 values have gone up in price in the past 3 years (although the POPs keep going up).
I want to start buying those cards...
<< <i>Once again, I am left speechless by the people who believe that there is a bundle of high-grade raw material "out there" and further believe that in time it will all come bouncing out, transform itself to graded material, then flood the market ... Yet these same people, for some uncomprehendable reason, also believe that the population of people interested in buying/collecting such material will remain the same. Wishful thinking, at its best.
Scott >>
Scott,
I doubt you have ever been left speechless.
Further, no one can say what a bundle is. I personally beleived a year or two ago, that the supply would slow down. However, it seems that at least in the 61 set, that the amouunt of nm/mt and mint commons has been exploding. Last year, there were a couple of cards with less than a 5 pop. Now there are very few with less than a 20 pop. And they seem to come oout iin bunches. I imagine that what happens is that there are some incredible raw sets out there. Sets from the 60's, etc. with 100 PSA 9 mint cards in them, and most of the rest 8's. They are possibly presentation sets that have been stored away. Or they are very high grade sets taht people collected many years ago. I agree tht they are not cards that have been in circulation, and they are not stored in attics from average Joe's colllection.
As Wayne says, for the most part, the prices have been dropping in PSA 8's for the past 2 years. That is proof right there that currently, the supply is exceeding the demand.
Two facts are true:
1)The supply of raw cards to be graded will eventually deplete. (not counting the card restorers)
2) Those cards currently in circulation willl one day be recirculated.
So what the equation boils down to is: Will there be more or less collectors 10 years from now. Now that is a tough one to answer.
<< <i>As Wayne says, for the most part, the prices have been dropping in PSA 8's for the past 2 years. That is proof right there that currently, the supply is exceeding the demand. >>
Might it also simply be a reflection of the current economic recession? These things (recessions) come and go and don't last forever. I happen to believe that this one will get worse before it gets better, regardless of who gets elected president in November. But eventually, it will end, and the economy will pick up again. Meanwhile, more and more collectors will start (as many already have) recognizing the inherent value in graded cards -- especially in the sight-unseen internet card market (i.e. eBay and online selling). That is not going to go away either. Speculation? Sure. But that's been the trend for over 10 years now. Why expect it to just cease for no reason at all?
Scott
I have to agree with Scott, supply is limited and there are a lot of guys out there like me that will return to the hobby, as they get older and have more dollars, who will want to put together quality sets of the cards they had as kids.
I also agree with one of the earlier posts about the PSA 8 78 Rose. Those cards are a steal right now. Rose is the all time hits leader and will eventually get into the hall. Not everyone can have a 9 or a 10 and people will be out there looking for 8 for sets, etc. There are many examples like that of undervalued 70s cards.
Also, I don't think you can go by a small ebay sample. Ebay provides a broad market for many goods, but the buyers on there at any time for a particular item are limited. When I buy 68s, I know how I will do on a particular evening based upon which of the usual suspects are bidding that night. There are so many auctions, you just have to pick and choose when to buy. I'm sure if you took an annual average of the selling prices of 1968 PSA 8s, you find that the prices are quite high.
Recession??? Lets see, interest rates are at a 40 year low, the stock market is performing very well over the past year, we just had a massive tax cut to pump more money back into the economy, inflation is almost non existent, and the unemployment rate is not bad. Is the glass always half empty?
The trend for 10 years has not been a constant increase in prices - specificallly in psa 8's between 1965 and 1975 which is the topic of this thread. Commons weren't even hardly being graded 5 years ago. Once they started grading them and the registry first caught on prices were strong and now they have dropped. Within any given year demand will be stronger for short periods of time but during the past 2 years demand for 8's is down. If you don't think so, then I will email you a list of all of my purchase prices from my 1965 topps collection and I will be happy to repurchase those cards and sell them back to you for the market value 2 years ago.
The fact is we don't know what is going to happen. We don't know that the number of people collecting cards is going to continue to grow. (wanna buy a beer can collection?) All I know for sure is that for prices to go up demand must exceed supply. We need more people taking an interest in the hobby. If not, then there will be a lot of people who have wasted a lot of money here.
Wayne
I don't know that I would call it wasted money. I have spent most of my money on wine, women and cards, and had to drop to 1 woman 21 years ago. The rest I wasted.
<< <i>Recession??? >>
Oh, so you're the one who doesn't think a recession is in progress.
<< <i>Lets see, interest rates are at a 40 year low ... >>
... Because corporate America has tons of its own money, due to massive amounts of jobs being sent overseas for the cheap labor. When corporations are awash in revenue, interest rates are low. How does that help working Joes?
<< <i>... the stock market is performing very well over the past year ... >>
It should be ... considering that most of the money being made by those big companies is going into the pockets of their own major stockholders. The rich are indeed getting richer right now.
<< <i>... we just had a massive tax cut to pump more money back into the economy ... >>
Have you seen where the National Debt has gone since that tax cut? And don't blame it on the war. In every previous wartime economy, median income has risen. This time, median income is falling and rapidly. Tax cuts don't do much good when working Joes are having to spend their savings just to get by.
<< <i>... inflation is almost non existent ... >>
Bought gasoline lately?
<< <i>... and the unemployment rate is not bad. >>
You're kidding right? The only reason that the so called "unemployment rate" doesn't LOOK bad is that about 10% of the formerly employed work force has given up looking for work and/or taken the "underemployment" alternative, making far less at jobs they don't really want.
<< <i>Is the glass always half empty? >>
Not to me, but I'll bet it is to a lot more people than YOU think it is.
That was way too easy.
The point, once again, is that the glass is indeed half full when it comes to the future of graded cards -- be they PSA, GAI or whoever's. PSA will always control the market for common cards, due to the tremendous lead they created with the Set Registry. Word is that GAI is thinking about creating a Set Registry of their own. The competition should prove interesting.
Scott
<< <i>Scott - I assume the Bush contingency will not be getting your vote this year.
Believe it or not, I'm a conservative Republican. I'm 50/50 right now on Bush in November. Personally, Kerry scares me, but if the Dems were running somebody with a brain, I'd vote Dem this year in a New York minute.
Scott
Thanks for enlightening us - I had no idea how bad things were until now. Now that I think about it I guess that times are always bad. I appreciate you fantastic insight!
<< <i>but if the Dems were running somebody with a brain, I'd vote Dem this year in a New York minute. >>
That does not surprise me at all.
<< <i>Word is that GAI is thinking about creating a Set Registry of their own. The competition should prove interesting >>
GAI has been talking about this registry for about 2 years now. It's always opening next month. At nationals they said it would definitely be open in January. Making promises and not delivering is no way to run a business.
<< <i><< Is the glass always half empty? >> >>
<< <i>Not to me, but I'll bet it is to a lot more people than YOU think it is. >>
Scott, This is the exact thinking that stops people from achieving more in life. They sit around and talk about how bad things are rather than creating something positive in their own lives. We have it so good here and it's all taken for granted by so many. Try selling your psa cards in Honduras where the average income is about $50 a month. I'm thankful for how things are in the US. I'm thankful for our tremendous economy which is the best in the world. I'm thankful I have extra money to put into baseball cards. I'm thankful that I chose to create my own opportunities rather than sit around and complain about how bad things are. Scott, If you think times are bad now then I would love to know when times were good.
I apologize to everyone else about my rant here - he hit a nerve with me.
Wayne
No apologies needed. Happy Easter to ya.
Scott
Groucho Marx
I noted your posts on "the recession" with interest, since I know a little something about the "dismal science" from a professional point of view. Without going into the politics of the question (a hard thing for me to do as an elected official), I'll just throw out that the classic "textbook" definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, which actually hasn't happened since the first three quarters of calendar 2001.
GDP growth has been positive each of the last 9 calendar quarters since September 30, 2001. Yes, even the post-911 quarter was positive at 2%. Here are the US GDP percentage growth rates since January 1, 2001:
2001: Q1: -.2% Q2: -.6% Q3: -1.3% Q4: +2.0%
2002: Q1: +4.7% Q2: +1.9% Q3: +3.4% Q4: +1.3%
2003: Q1: +2.0% Q2: +3.1% Q3: +8.2% Q4: +4.1%
Of course these are national averages, and where you live (and what industry you work in) has a huge impact on what you experience locally. For instance, I live in central/eastern Virginia where local growth rates are incredibly strong and there has been little slowdown of anything. However, I grew up in West Virginia, and the story there, and even in Western Virginia is completely different.
Scott, while it isn't correct to call overall economic performance a recession, I understand what you are trying to say. After all, the Dow is still below its 2000 peak, and other stock indices are nowhere their peaks. Unemployment is still well above its early 2000 lows, but is still waaaay below it was when I entered the job market in the fall of 1981 - 11%.
Harry Truman once said that it was a recession if your neighbor lost his job, but it was a depression if you lost your job. That still applies.
Steve