An analysis of having a large raw collection certified
GOLDSAINT
Posts: 2,148 ✭
I recently returned form a long trip to Florida to take my 30-year-old collection to NGC to have it certified. I took the coins to NGC mainly because that is where my registry set of Bust halves was. I have no prejudice against PCGS, and in fact I might have done better if I had made the trip to California instead. To say that I had some disappointments in this transaction is an understatement since 112 of my 330 coins were body bagged. This is an entirely different story, and I do not wish to get into that today. I did however learn some interesting things that I thought I should be passed on.
First, in my opinion, this is a terrible time to submit large, raw, long-term collections unless you are considering selling. It is my feeling that our two largest grading services are so inundated with work they can barley keep up, and are therefore doing a poor job in giving the customer the time, and service they deserve. This poor performance is due to this “Hot” market and the grading curve that the graders are establishing for coins of all denominations.
These large certification companies are currently seeing more coins submitted to them due in part by the hot market, and also due to older collectors desires to bring their collections into the modern age. A grading curve has been established to put only the best coins in NGC or PCGS holders, and this curve should not exist, but does simply because of the large amount of submittals at this time.
In other words why should everyone have to do all these re-submittals just to get the correct grade? The grading standards should be fixed in stone; they should not be tightened or loosened depending on how many coins are coming through the door.
I am also of the opinion that in about 5 years very few coins with the exception of moderns, or re-slabs out of “ bad” holders, will be submitted to these two fine companies simple because most of the older better coins will be slabbed.
If I had this to do over again I would do two things, first I would not make any new purchases that were not certified by a company I liked. Second I would not have any of my raw coins certified at this time unless it was through a large dealer with some clout.
I do not want to get into my personal situation, except to say that this was very poor judgment on my part, and I hope that many of you do not make the same mistake.
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I was freaking out about one body bag yesterday. Now I feel like a jackass.
A man dies and leaves his $500,000 raw coin collection to his kids, who know nothing about the coins. The family sends them in to be certified so that they can be sold at auction. One third of the coins or approximately $166,500 dollars worth come back with what to us would seem like ridiculous BB’s, but to them that meant the coins were no good, so they sell them for nickels and dimes at the flea market. Just for argument sake lets say that some of these coins were very rare and should have been certified but the graders were in a hurry, or these coins were in “BAD” slabs, perhaps they were foreign coins and the graders were not well read enough to find them, or they had been dipped. At any rate this family who hired this company to certify their in heritance did not get what they paid for. Who is responsible for their lose?
How many posts are there on this forum in the last 3 years of slabbed coins by the top two companies that were body bagged and sent to the other company only to be slabbed? How many posts are there of coins re-submitted only to receive different grades.
I am not suggesting a government regulatory commission be put in place, but in all other “MONEY” industries someone is watching to make sure the customers don’t get cheated.
Perhaps the ANA should certify the certifier’s and require repayment for errors of any coins graded differently by two grades by one of their other approved companies.
I sympathize with your feeling that it shouldn't take multiple submissions to get a coin in the proper grade holder. That's an oft-repeated complaint. There are people who make a living trying to determine when the "right" time is to submit something.
I give you credit for sharing your story when it's clearly painful for you to do so. Please don't forget that your ability to enjoy your collection should not be diminished by your experience. It's one service's opinion on one particular day - nothing more.
If you are determined to submit them, it might be interesting to do it through one of the bigger firms and see if that makes a difference.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
What really gets my goat is the lack of concern by these companies for the mistakes they make, and even the unwillingness to admit to making mistakes when all of us here know what a poor job they do at times.
Not trying to be too controversial here, but how is it again that this is their mistake? The grading services don't want to body bag coins, when they do they're telling you that the coin has issues which makes them uncomfortable. Sounds like much of the problem here may actually lie with quality of the coins that were sent in. This is an unusually high percentage of bb's and that says a lot which I am not going to bother saying.
Grading is subjective and because of that there will always be disaggreement in what should and shouldn't go into a slab. It would be almost impossible to police. The grading services are doing nothing more than providing an opinion about your coin. the market decides if that opinion is worthwhile.
Your hypothetical family could be taken for just as much with holdered coins. As long as there are people there will always be fraud.
rainbowroosie April 1, 2003
I am also of the opinion that in about 5 years very few coins with the exception of moderns, or re-slabs out of “ bad” holders, will be submitted to these two fine companies simple because most of the older better coins will be slabbed.
Many things in life run in cycles, and we will see how the coin grading services fare at the trough of this cycle.
<< <i>I recently returned form a long trip to Florida to take my 30-year-old collection to NGC to have it certified..............I would not have any of my raw coins certified at this time unless it was through a large dealer with some clout.................this was very poor judgment on my part, and I hope that many of you do not make the same mistake. >>
Ouch! One-third BB'd. Maybe next time you should submit thru those coin vault guys. They are pretty large NGC sumitters with clout.
From my own experiences in cracking out coins and resubmitting them in the 1988-1990 I concluded that unless one is in the top 100 or so graders in the world, it's much safer and profitable to buy nice slabbed coins and leave it at that. There is way too much at stake considering slabbed fees have usually been paid by the previous owner.
As far as your body bag experience goes I'd have to agree with Tonelover on that. Anyone collecting raw coins on the order of $100 or more per coin should often test their skills by submitting coins for grading. I still don't support buying raw coins unless you are talking problem free circs that do not require authentication. Just the liquidity issue alone pays for having slabbed coins.
I've specialized and collected MS seated liberty coins since 1973 and believe I need to have a second opinion by the grading service when I buy. But when I do buy raw, I find that 10% of the coins I buy get bagged for one reason or another...usually residue, AT, or stained....one of the drawbacks of buying toned coins. But that won't change my thinking about buying dipped coins.
roadrunner
<< <i>You could always submit your coins to ANACS. >>
I agree.Cheaper,quicker,no BBs.
You also make it sound like the companies body bag coins so they get to regrade them again just to make more money. No way! Why risk the reputation of your company over a few bucks? OK, some coins get bodybagged for things like questionable color/toning only to get slabbed at a latter time. Most bodybagged coins are graded that way because they are problem coins.
FrederickCoinClub
NOt a lot of concensus between companies.
I did see one AU55 early $10 that was so OBVIOUSLY polished, cleaned, and generally UGLY that I wonder how it got in a PCGS.
The graders are going to body bag themselves if they don't get to their original purpose which was uniformly grading COINS belonging to collectors of COINS. The temptation to make a bundle by slabbing modern eagles and stuff is plainly just being used as an ENDORSEMENT for those items which would otherwise be consigned to bullion buyers instead of being touted to fleece the public.
Next will be slabbed rocks for rockhounds. Finest piece of schist known.
Then it can be sold on TV.
One other confusing point is that all of the BB coins had blue labels on them that said they could be sent to NCS and then slabbed. What is this, a ploy to get another $10,000
out of my wallet?
As I said earlier all of these coins will go through a large dealer to PCGS in the fall. It would not surprise me to find that 15 or 20 will come back from them in BB’S but not the majority. I will also be careful to make sure that they are not submitted during a large show like Baltimore. I am still convinced that hundreds of thousands of dollars are being wasted sending in older collections to be certified at this time, and would advise any collectors that are considering doing what I did to just wait for the submittals to cool down. The 330 coins my wife and I submitted were only our coins that were pre- 1900 and our collection of moderns are nearly double that. None of these will be submitted to NGC and none will be submitted until these anomies are dealt with at these companies.
“At this point in my letter I am sure you are thinking, these people in Texas are just some poor uneducated coin collectors that just made some bad decisions through the years.
Please allow me to give you a little background on my wife, myself, and our collection. First the majority, approximately 80%, of this collection was acquired by us during a period from 1968 to 1985. The balance of which was acquired during the last few years from many of the countries largest dealers. We currently have total lines of credit available to us in an amount exceeding $300,000 at the following firms, Sotheby’s, Howard Rose Galleries, in N.Y., Heritage Coins in Dallas, Goldberg Coins, Teller Galleries in Maryland, and others.
We are considered experts by most of our peers in the numismatic area, the art of Mesoamerica, the Ancient art of China from the Warring States period to the Ming dynasty. We are the founders of, and curators for the ******Museum Of Ancient Cultural Arts in Texas, members of the Texas Rock Art foundation. We are also considered by our peers to be experts in the detection of fakes from all ancient cultures of Mesoamerica and China in materials made of wood, bronze, silver, gold, jade, stone, pottery etc.
From the period of 1978 to 1981 we owned and operated Texas Coin Galleries based in Austin, Texas, a fully integrated, wholesale, and retail numismatic business. During that period we bought and sold hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars worth of both U.S. and World coins. We are members in good standing of Collectors Universe, and your NGC collector’s society.”
<< <i>One other confusing point is that all of the BB coins had blue labels on them that said they could be sent to NCS and then slabbed. >>
I may be wrong but I suspect many of your coins might have PVC damage? What did they say on the tags? If PVC damaged I don't think you can put the blame on NGC- rather I would commend them for NOT holdering them. I come across many dealers that don't have a clue why a coin has been body bagged until it is pointed out to them or why it was graded several points lower than expected so being in the coin business does not exclude you from missing something and having a coin bagged. Don't forget these are the same coins you sent in for grading- nothing has changed the coin itself- if they are problem free you have nothing to worry about other than the loss of grading fee's. I hope all turns out well. mike
Kidding aside, that's pretty impressive if you ask me. Fact: NGC is out there royally boning pre-20th century coins. I know they do it on seated material so it's no surprise that you have had a bad experience in the bust half area. I don't trust these guys like I did in 1989 and realize it is going to take on average 1-3 submissions to get a grade right today. In a few cases recently that did not work, and I finally sent them raw to PCGS and got the expected grades the first time. I still use NGC but less than I did. Their variability also exists on gold too. Consistency at NGC is a big problem in type material right now. While they seem to give out gifts too often to some of the majors following big auctions, they also slam other submissions to 1989 grading standards. I have mentioned before that they likely have a group of graders based in reality on 19th century type and a separate group of modern graders who know little about the subtle nuances of 19th century grading. I know that grading a thousand moderns a day can totally ruin one's eye for classics on the same day or week. There's a big difference between being right say 80% of the time (what each grader should be at in EVERY area he or she grades) and being right 60-70% of the time. I believe the modern guys grading classics at times may be at the 60% level.
Submitting at a major show imo stacks the odds against you even more. I might submit coins at a show to save on postage, but the coins will be taken back to the service for grading over the next few weeks. While I feel confident in my own grading abilities I still bounce off submissions against seasoned pros because the playing field right now is not level.....call it bumpy or curved....but it is not level. NGC may still give out the highest grades in the long run but their consistency up and down has expanded greatly over the past few years. They need to fix that.
roadrunner
Roadrunner, this is another good point. The consistence was just terrible on the coins that were slabbed. Some of the $20 gold came back as prooflike and some that had only a couple of tiny bag rubs came back as MS 61's.
There were many coins that came back as AT that may have been dipped but had NO toning, and coins that were marked as cleaned that had all the original toning. As I said I did not want to get into the details of all these mistakes as they would fill up a dozen pages here with pictures.
So back to one of my original questions, who in the world is watching these companies?
Lets look at the real world. If you want to get the best price for your collection at some time in the future you must have them slabbed by one of the top 3 companies and really buy one of the top 2, and all of this will become more important as the values go up.
This is exactly why anyone buying coins today who is not one of the top 100 graders, should be buying coins that they hand select, already in PCGS & NGC slabs. We sometimes wander from this path, but it is best to minimize such excursions.
roadrunner
Well in a way we are. The coin marketplace is too! Their product is on display for ALL to see and pass judgement on. The LAST thing we need is a Guvmint standard for eye appeal, MS65, etc. I'm sure the folks at NGC remember your submission so maybe a phone call or two might get you more info.
I think a lot of us here can feel your pain, (though perhaps not the magnitude of it!).
I was looking at the auction lots up at Portland last week and noticed the following string of, ironically enough, Saints.
Lots 6602 - 6608: (all dated 1927), PCGS ms64, NGC ms65, PCGS ms65, NGC ms65, PCGS ms65, PCGS ms66, PCGS ms67.
Prices realized: $805, $1092, $2875, $2070, $4370, $2127, $10,637.
Two PCGS ms65's sold for considerably more than the PCGS ms66, one NGC ms65 sold for approximately what the PCGS ms66 sold for, one NGC ms65 sold for approximately half of what the other NGC ms65 sold for, while the PCGS ms67 sold for either 10x, 5x, 3 3/4 x or 2 1/2 x what the ms65's sold for, and 5x what the ms66 sold for.
I recognized the clear superiority of the one PCGS "65" as well as the clear inferiority of the PCGS "66" immediately, (unfortunately the funds were limited so bidding on the clear upgrade candidate was not going to be possible). In fact, i thought the 65 actually had slightly better eye-appeal than even the "67." Anyway, the opening bid for the 65 was $50 higher, but the final sale price eventually blew the 66 out of the water.
What i'm saying, in my usual long-winded way, is that what the consumer pays for at the grading service is an opinion. The "world series" is proving that even with the most basic collection of coins, the top graders in the country disagree on grades on a majority of the coins they see. They are usually within one point, granted, but still, there are no "grades set in rock."
Your situation is obviously different, in that one third of your coins weren't even given a grade, (and NGC obviously did have the time to make their usual pitch to have you pay to have the coins worked on, then pay again to have them put in a slab).
Perhaps having that great a number of "tough" coins submitted by a bigshot would give you an edge, but, then again, how often do we read that those same big shots are moaning about "how tight the services are right now" and that every coin they submit is a 5-star, no question upgrade blahblahblah....
You obviously take great pride in your collection, and clearly understand that to maximize value in sale, as well as protecting those who may be less knowledgable than you are who may inherit the coins, you must have the coins encapsulated by one of the major tpgs. Unfortunately the situation right now is perversely located somewhere between perfection, a crapshoot and a hard place.... even more perversely, the situation probably will not be changing anytime soon.
Good luck with your next round of submissions and, with regard to the cautionary tale above, make sure that when the coins do get graded, they are in the most advantageous slab possible (this goes for the ones which were slabbed on the first go-round, of course); as you must not only acknowledge that the regrade game exists and suffer it's vicissitudes, you must use your own superior knowledge to maximize all the benefit you can from it for you and yours!
z
ps: how consistent did you find the grades on the 2/3 which were encapsulated?
Tough submission results. I have no idea the accuracy of your results, but I'd add only this: If you're hoping to capitalize on the reputation, brand recognition, and guaranty of any of the TPG's, you have to do it their way. If you can sucessfully market the coins for maximum value raw, you don't need the TPG's. Honestly, it sounds to me like you already believe you know the grade of the coins you submitted, so I'd say the whole point is to increase their saleability. Apparently, you believe NGC's credibility is better than yours with regard to these coins. If you submitted your coins to NGC based on your opinion of other people's coins you've seen in NGC holders, why do you believe them idiots with yours.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
<< <i>
So back to one of my original questions, who in the world is watching these companies?
>>
Everyone is watching these two companies, because they are the market makers.
PCGS is known, from what i can tell, as generally a bit tighter when it comes to grading, but has a reputation for lack of customer service.
NGC is known, on the other hand, as somewhat looser, (which is often reflected in prices realized, which, more often than not do actually reflect the quality of the coin) when it comes to grading, but ironically, in this case particularly, has a reputation for superior customer service.
I'm pretty surprised that you did not get a response from Mr. Salzberg, considering their reputation with customer relations combined with the fact that you must have ponied up a fair bit of cash for that size order. Perhaps you could try giving him a call and giving them one more chance to see if they might not be able to come up with a customer-friendly solution?
I don't think that will ever happen. There will still be major differences of opinion. Grading is largely subjective, and computers, as far as I know, can't judge eye appeal.
I am considering submitting a group of some of my highest grade and highest potential raw Morgans, $20 Libs, $20 Saints and a couple of Ch Unc Bust Halves & other type coins (like a 1918-S Full Head Standing Liberty Quarter) to PCGS for certification & slabbing. This will be the first group that I've gotten graded, but I'm interested to see what PCGS thinks of these specific coins.
I will post a thread on this forum after I submit the coins with a list of them, and will certainly discuss the results on the forum.
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"