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resubmitting and cross overs effect on card population

AwfulBitsAwfulBits Posts: 191
in PSA Set Registry Forum
Seeing all the threads on here about people getting there cards back and cracking them out and resubmitting got me thinking about what effect this has on a cards population. The effect of this is obliviously more drastic in low population cards. For example: say I deiced to send in a card to be graded that had a PSA 8 population of say 4. When I get my grades it comes back as an 8, but I thought it was a 9 for sure, and after looking at the card again I’m still sure it’s a 9. So, I crack it out and send it back in to be graded. Again it comes back and 8. I now own a card that has a skewed population of 1/6 instead of it’s true 1/5 population. It’s also possible someone else did this and the cards real population is 1/4. Or I send it in a third time and it’s now 1/7.

I then started to wonder, what other things, over time artificially inflate a cards population.

Cross overs. While I think it is more common for cards to get crossed to PSA holders, I sure it does happen the other way around. Going from a PSA holder to an SGC, BGS ect. For example I am making a graded SGC set and I can’t find a suitable card in a SGC holder, so I buy a PSA card and cross it over. A few years go by and I sell the cards off. The person who buys it it working on a PSA set, so they cross it over to PSA. This card now has an inflated population.

The cracking a resubmitting cards that have qualifiers. As an example lets take a PSA 8 OC, It’s OC but would clearly be a 7 NQ. So it gets cracked out and resubmitted and comes back a PSA 7. The PSA population for the card in PSA 8 OC is now inflated.

Anyone else have any thoughts?


-Mike

Comments

  • DavinoDavino Posts: 333 ✭
    I think that is a valid concern and the only way to somewhat rectify the pop report would be for people to send in the old flips in order to have the crossedover card's old grade removed from the pop report.
  • BuckwheatBuckwheat Posts: 644 ✭
    That is certainly a factor that can't be accurately assessed. I definitely think it makes more of a difference in ow pop cards, and in high dollar cards. It is doubtful, however, that it effects the 9 pop very much, as at least in vintage, I can't see too many people taking the chance to lose a 9 by resubmitting.

    Also, it is likely that overall, a very small percentage of cards fall into this category. I personallly have several thousands of cards, and have only resubmitted less than 10. Also, in high pop cards, or low value commons, it rarely makes financial sense to resubmit to try to upgrade a 7 to an 8.

    But you are right that the pop report has to be higher than the actual number, even if we can't determine how much it is off.
    Ole Doctor Buck of the Popes of Hell

  • Lothar52Lothar52 Posts: 2,664 ✭✭✭
    PSA should get smart and offer something...for every 10 tops you send back to rectify the pop report you get 1 free grading....if u know you bust out alot..it would be wise for you to do this to benefit yourself...and psa would give a free grade and there pop report would benefit...its just they dont care prolly

    loth
  • NewbietoPSANewbietoPSA Posts: 129 ✭


    << <i>PSA should get smart and offer something...for every 10 tops you send back to rectify the pop report you get 1 free grading....if u know you bust out alot..it would be wise for you to do this to benefit yourself...and psa would give a free grade and there pop report would benefit...its just they dont care prolly

    loth >>



    I can see people taking their low grade cards that are a PSA 1 or 2 that are virtuously worthless and cracking them open for a free grade at a more expensive card. The best way to deal with this is probably to only pay for the car what it is worth to you regardless of the population report. Like saying to yourself I will only pay so and so for John doe in an 8.
  • mikeschmidtmikeschmidt Posts: 5,756 ✭✭✭
    Prudent collectors use the Population Report as a guide, and nothing else.

    I specialize in the 1955 Bowman set - and I can go over many nuances to you. Being aware of those nuances, and bidding/selling appropriately, are important steps.

    The 1955 Bowman #1 Hoyt Wilhelm card has a purported PSA 8 population of 18. I can tell you for a fact that this is not true. As a #1 card where no PSA 9 exists, and given my tracking of all Hoyt Wilhelm PSA cards to sell publicly over the past four years - I absolutely guarantee that this number is inflated by 20-30% or so, perhaps by a dealer that had a high-end 8 that was hoping to make a killing on the 9.

    Some perspective is also justified. Most PSA 10s will stay in their holder, for instance. Most vintage PSA 9s stay in their holder, too. Yes, there are stories of certain dealers getting key rookie cards from 9 holders into 10 holders - but the incidence of that is few and far between. Obviously, the most play is in PSA 8s from vintage sets and PSA 7s from major vintage sets (e.g. 1952 Topps, but not 1955 Bowman). The one-offs aren't so much a concern - it is more a concern when a cracked and resubmitted time and again.

    Education is probably more important than anything. If you collect a certain issue (let's say 1955 Bowman again), make an effort to build good relationships with all other 1955 Bowman collectors - and not just the Registry folk. Talk to them, talk to the dealers, and get a good network rolling. That way, you can build up an informational database that is many times superior to that offered by a Population Report. The Pop reports are good starting guides - but that's about it. There are many legitimate Population 8 PSA 8 cards from the 1955 Bowman sets that are harder to obtain than Population 5 or Population 6 PSA 8 cards from the same set. Learning the nuances and reasons why make all the difference.
    I am actively buying MIKE SCHMIDT gem mint baseball cards. Also looking for any 19th century cabinets of Philadephia Nationals. Please PM with additional details.
  • AwfulBitsAwfulBits Posts: 191
    MS,

    I agree you have to know what you are doing and the only way to do that is to self educate. When I first started to buy PSA cards, I didn’t belong to PSA and had no population report to go by. I only had the frequency of when certain cards in certain grades were offered for sale. Not to long ago I join PSA and now have access to the pop reports. I guess this topic kinda started partly from something you hit on, that the population report is a “guide”. I think most card collectors realize that price guides are just “guides” and that their prices are not carved in stone. Even in these price guides they say some legal stuff to the effect that they are just a “guide” when it comes to what the real value of a card is. But when dealing with the population report, I think it is not really represented as a “guide”, but more like fact. I think that many of the people that realize that price guides are just that, take the population report as 100% accurate.

    -Mike
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