Low mintage dates, survivorship numbers

ARCO

I found this article surfing the web and bookmarked it for reference. It is a great comparison tool to use to highlight the survivorship of some of the popular key dates and low mintage coins.

I thought some of you might enjoy it also. Survivorship article

Tyler

P.S. Check out the low survivorship of the 1909-o and 1911-D Barber quarters in Gem.

richbeat

Very interesting. Thanks for posting the link.

ealandg

It is an interesting article. There are also some great coins here. Hmmm. I wonder if they have layaway...

cladking

This is an interesting and valuable work in its own right however one has to suspect that
a more significant determinant of the percentage of a coin slabbed is the behavior of those
who just happen to collect that coin.

There could be some of these older silver coins in storage but with each passing year it looks
less likely.

roadrunner

I would imagine there are still significant quantities of unslabbed
1909-o and 1911-d Barber quarters. They are very scarce dates in gem grade but one has to also realize that there are still rolls of most, if not all Barber dates still out there. Roll sets still exist out there.

The .001% in gem grade only includes what is currently graded in MS65. If I were doing such an analysis I would include all grades at MS65 and higher as I am interested in all specimens existing in gem.
Many times the pops in 66 and 67 could be very close to what the number is for 65's. All of this plays a role in reaching a theory.

If one goes back to the seated quarters, you will find that the surviving numbers there for most better dates is on the order of 10-20% of the Barbers. In other words for every 10 key date Barbers in gem, there would be only one such seated quarter (ex. ten
1901-s barber 25c gems for every 1859-0 seated quarter gem).
Pops are one thing, but the popularity of the 1901-s is probably 100x that of the 1859-0. Net effect is that the 10x RARER 1859-0 in gem, brings a fraction of the price of the 1901s.

roadrunner

roadrunner

A missing part of the analysis is the quality of grading. I've seen some of the so-called MS65 slabbed 1859-0 quarters are imo most are of commercial 65 quality. The standards for MS65 early seated quarters seems to be pretty low these days. NGC is putting out some stripped and dipped pieces that are at best 64+. This distorts the pops. I'm only aware of one or two gem 59-0 quarters...James Stack / Reed Hawn being one of them. But I would imagine the standard for a gem 1901-s quarter is much tighter since this is a $35,000+ coin. The 59-0 only lists for around $10,000.

Very few truly gem O mint seated quarters exist (20-30 at most), never mind just one specific date like a tough 1858-0 or 1859-0
of which both have fairly ample-looking mintages.

roadrunner

Placid

Cracked out regrades can throw such info off.

Dave99B

Tyler - Interesting read. Thx for sharing.

Roadrunner - I doubt there are "significant quantities of unslabbed 1909-o and 1911-d Barber quarters". Very little raw or slabbed high-end material is available for those dates. And given the premium asked for these difficult dates in true GEM condition, I would expect most have found there way into legit plastic. Are there roll sets out there (either Seated ot Barber) - sure. Rolls of GEM 65+ condition material - unlikely in either case.

Dave