All this gold and silver talk....

Birdman

I have a question for the veteran collectors out there. If there is a bull run in silver and gold that is similiar to the ones that occured when the Hunt's tried to corner the silver market and when gold went through the roof during the Iran hostage crisis, how are coin prices affected? For the collectors that were collecting during these time periods what were your experiences.

Obviously, the intrinisic value will be wherever these commodities are trading, but how is the numismatic value affected?

Is the numismatic value consistent or does it get inflated as more and more people believe they need to get long silver and gold through the coin market. If so what kind of numismatic inflation would we likely see if silver somehow was trading at $50 and gold at $800 again.

I would be interested to hear some of the veterans' experiences.

mrearlygold

I had lines out my shop in 1980 sometimes.

Coin prices had gone up considerably. There were issues on grade however which became more pronounced as time ticked on.

Rgrds
TP

MoneyLA

the biggest percentage changes to coins back in 1980 came with "common date" coins but the real stars of the market were the ms65 morgans that went through the roof both on a dollar value and a percentage value. morgans not only benefited from the price of silver but also the new numismatic interest.

ive written extensively on the new bull market in silver and gold for more than a year. but this time I dont think morgans will be the star of the market, though they will certainly benefit.

cheers, alan mendelson

atomic

<< <i>the biggest percentage changes to coins back in 1980 came with "common date" coins but the real stars of the market were the ms65 morgans that went through the roof both on a dollar value and a percentage value. morgans not only benefited from the price of silver but also the new numismatic interest.

ive written extensively on the new bull market in silver and gold for more than a year. but this time I dont think morgans will be the star of the market, though they will certainly benefit.

cheers, alan mendelson >>



What coins will be the stars and why not Morgans? Curious to hear your thoery.
Atomic

MoneyLA

Hi Atomic: Im not ruling out Morgans for having big percentage gains... in fact that's what Im buying now, MS65 and better pcgs morgans. I even picked up an ms67 but had to pay about 35% more than I paid about two years ago for a similar coin.

I dont think morgans will be the star because I dont see the big business promotion for morgans now that I saw back in 1979-80 when just about every corner coin dealer had original rolls and bags of morgans to sell. they just dont exist anymore like that.

i think junk silver might show the biggest percentage gains now because they currently lack a numismatic premium.

would ms65 morgans still be a good buy?? you betcha. though some dealers tell me that ms64 certified morgans might be the better buy now because they have a smaller numismatic premium.

Im curioius about your thoughts too? thanks and cheers alan

ps my most recent articles on silver/gold are in the "money alerts" section of my website. access is free -- not selling anything. and my original call of a bull market goes back to january 2003.

cheers, alan mendelson

cladking

Rising gold and silver prices had a dramatic and direct effect on coin prices in the
last run up. Most collectors had significant amounts of junk silver lying around with
which to profit and much of the "extra" money was plowed back into coins. More im-
portantly the general public was sitting on silver by the ton. This was sold to the
dealers who made a fair cut off of it and also frequently profited by the increase be-
fore they had a chance to sell. This resulted in large amounts of cash in dealer hands
which often went to purchase more stock or build on personal collections.

This money mostly went into the coins which were hot at the time which was high
grade Morgans, walkers and the like.

If this is another major bull market in the metals there will be differences this time.
Chief among them is that the general public no longer has large amounts of silver on
which dealers can make a lot of profit. Collectors too, probably have a little less on
average but this is hard to get a feel for. Any profits which are realized will likely be
plowed back into the coins that are hot again and moderns would be a primary bene-
ficiery.

MoneyLA

Cladking wrote:

"moderns would be a primary beneficiery."

If you are referring to modern silver gaining along with the price of silver, I agree. I dont think the moderns have a big numismatic premium that would swallow up gains from the metal price going up.

are there underpriced modern silver issues? If so, I would bet on them. Since I dont know this sector, some tips would be appreciated?

cheers, alan mendelson

cladking

<< <i>Cladking wrote:

"moderns would be a primary beneficiery."

If you are referring to modern silver gaining along with the price of silver, I agree. I dont think the moderns have a big numismatic premium that would swallow up gains from the metal price going up.

are there underpriced modern silver issues? If so, I would bet on them. Since I dont know this sector, some tips would be appreciated?

cheers, alan mendelson >>



I was referring to moderns in general including the silver issues. The benefit to moderns
would be proportional to how well they've been doing in the past so it would likely be clad
and circulation issues which got the most new interest. Moderns would do even better un-
der these conditions except that many dealers simply aren't going to stock them no matter
what and any profits they put back in coins will go into other hot areas of the market. There
is no lack of such areas at the current time.

291fifth

The tendency of dealers to plow virtually all of their bullion profits into numismatic coins was very prominent back in the early eighties. Unfortunately, it led to a bubble that quickly and violently burst. Many dealers will remember this and are not likely to make the same mistake again. I am not seeing much "buying for stock" going on in my area unless the dealer can buy it very cheap. Some dealers only want items on consignment. I expect to see a lot more of this in the near future.

I really can't see dealers putting a great deal of money into moderns. The store dealers in my area seem to have a very low opinion of moderns. I can't say that I blame them as I have often been in their shops when the seller they have never seen before comes in with an SUV full of modern US mint products. They apparently wholesale a great deal of this material.

cladking

<< <i>

I really can't see dealers putting a great deal of money into moderns. The store dealers in my area seem to have a very low opinion of moderns. I can't say that I blame them as I have often been in their shops when the seller they have never seen before comes in with an SUV full of modern US mint products. They apparently wholesale a great deal of this material. >>



Generically moderns may well be in ample supply on the market and it's certainly true
that most dealers (and collectors) don't like them. In even greater supply with the mint
packaged sets and singles is the packaging. A large box of proof sets will yield 3 garbage
bags of debis and a few rolls of coins when they are busted up. You'll also notice if you
inspect the next SUV load of "moderns" that there will be a preponderance of proof sets,
some misc items and a handful of mint sets. Of more importance is what won't be there
and very rarely will be seen and that's the tough moderns like a 1983-P quarter or some
rolls of older clad. You also won't too often see slabbed coins except proofs and bullion
coins.

Certainly I wouldn't recommend someone buy moderns by the pound or the SUV full. By
the same token I wouldn't necessarily even recommend that they collect moderns at all.
I'm merely suggesting that if this is a bull market dealers are going to mainly buy whatever
is hot and/or whatever their customers are buying. Moderns should be a significant bene-
ficiary if silver and gold are in a major bull market.