Gold and SILVER making a run..
topstuf
Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
Now....WHO....would have ever thought that? I mean with the recovery and no end in sight to Iraq and the country cleaning out all the old dusty jobs and such.
Gee.
My surprise is unbounded.
Gee.
My surprise is unbounded.
0
Comments
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Russ, NCNE
I was crowing when it made its move from $250 gold and $4.20 silver.
I.....AM.....pretty entertained right now.
Russ, NCNE
Public has not yet participated. And probably will NOT until 450-500 is breached.
THEN......I may think of taking back my position a bit.
In silver.....something.....is up. Do NOT know what. Nobody does.
But just a FEW demands for contract delivery on Comex and......Katie bar the door.
Let go when the paper shows everyone lining up at coin shops. Not until!
Might be good to also wait for Lou Rukeyser to do a head shake or something too.
But ......in actuality.......Our debt is higher than ANYTHING ....short of hyperinflation....can pay.
FACT!
But maybe I'm wrong and should buy some growth stocks....BEFORE....everyone moves to India.
Stocks? Sure.......REITS! Use the dividends to buy coins. I do.
Later today i will make it rain in Dallas. I will wash my car.
The general public is always the last in during a runup and the last out during a collapse. I see no reason why it will be different this time. If your UPS man is now touting metals it is time to get out!
<< <i>I am the sole reason gold has gone up. I sold my gold this past summer at around 360.
Later today i will make it rain in Dallas. I will wash my car. >>
Hahahahaha!
TP
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
a lot of selling before and occasionally they'd back up a little, but the lines came later.
Hyper inflation is hardly a given nor much desirable even to bulls. Indeed, even high inflation
isn't a sure thing. I would feel confident in predicting at least some uptick in inflation and future
actions by the fed and government will largely determine the amount we'll have. The debt is
not yet so massive that it must drag the dollar down. Future debt is significant but does not
much affect the economy until it is incurred.
edited to fix first word in 2nd line 2nd paragraph. (isn't not is.)
When Gold is down I'm happy because my new gold costs less (Dollar Cost Averaging)...
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
Greenspan: "I've been recommending that for years, there's nothing new about that. It would probably mean there is only one vote in the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] for that, but it is mine."
- Senate Committee Hearing, September 1997
Vladimir: That's what you think.
- Samuel Beckett, Waiting For Godot
The UPS driver is not an indicator of a top in gold because he's thinking of buying for the wrong reason. He's still thinking like a speculator. He doesn't realize that the game has changed from wealth appreciation to wealth preservation, just as few noticed in 1996 when the stock market went turned into a casino. He doesn't know it, but he believes in the Greenspan put.
The lines for gold in 1980 were not there because everyone wanted in on the great money maker. They were there because the buying power of their savings was collapsing and assumed the trend would last forever. Little did they know that Volcker was about to fix the problem by slamming the US into the worst recession since the 1930s. That's not the circumstance today. Today we have the Greenspan put making everyone feel like they can't lose, not in the stock market, not in real estate, not in consumer debt. But it's not true. The day of reckoning will come. Greenspan knows this. That's why you occasionally here him make public statements like the one in my post above. Later he gets to say, "Don't say I didn't warn you."
Atomic
Vladimir: That's what you think.
- Samuel Beckett, Waiting For Godot
Positive BST Transactions (buyers and sellers): wondercoin, blu62vette, BAJJERFAN, privatecoin, blu62vette, AlanLastufka, privatecoin
#1 1951 Bowman Los Angeles Rams Team Set
#2 1980 Topps Los Angeles Rams Team Set
#8 (and climbing) 1972 Topps Los Angeles Rams Team Set
Silver is another story. More is committed out than exists. (to most calculations)
I was in my first coin shop in 1979. The lines started BEFORE the collapse. In fact on the day OF the collapse, they were out the door and on the sidewalk. I got a call from my wholesaler that he was changing the price on 90% coins and would take what I would commit THAT MINUTE and no more until figuring the multiple. I told the guy in line that he was the last one to get what I quoted and told the rest of the line that they could stay or leave, but it would be significantly lower. All chose to stay as they knew that everyone would be doing the same.
But having NO gold is foolish in my opinion. WHEN the public.......not there yet.....starts buying, I will lighten up. In no circumstance will I ever sell it ALL. 100 oz of gold will give you a start in any country in the world.
Other things are "investments." Gold is a speculation. I am the world's worst gambler, but also an avid reader and student of economics. The debt is actually going to end in a wrenching DEFLATION. But it will be so severe that the dollar may not last as the reserve currency of the world.
We will see. Trading gold makes sense and holding does too. IMO, the trend is up just due to amazing mismanagement of our US economy.
We SHOULD be able to pull a Volcker and raise rates, but we're painted into one hell of a corner right now and the "public" is very vulnerable due to massive debt and those WITH any assets have them in a very overvalued stock market via mutual funds.
We shall see.
<< <i>How much is silver now? >>
NY Spot $7.59
Vladimir: That's what you think.
- Samuel Beckett, Waiting For Godot
<< <i>But having NO gold is foolish in my opinion. WHEN the public.......not there yet.....starts buying, I will lighten up. In no circumstance will I ever sell it ALL. 100 oz of gold will give you a start in any country in the world. >>
And Greenspan agrees with you...
"Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted."
- Alan Greenspan - May 20, 1999
Vladimir: That's what you think.
- Samuel Beckett, Waiting For Godot
Seriously though, instead of raising taxes, let's just cut out the excess spending.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
This is a long term gold and silver bull market. Get used to it. Last time you saw it was 25 years ago.
roadrunner
- Prepare a new budget every month
- Live on less than you make
- Invest for the future (15% of your income) via paid-for real estate and good growth stock mutual funds
- Have a 3- to 6-month emergency fund in a highly liquid money-market account WHEN, NOT IF, an emergency happens
- Pay off all your debts, and quit borrowing money
Sounds simple, doesn't it? It is simple, but THIS WORKS.
Guys and gals, I don't care what the naysayers are advising. Don't listen to the negativity that the sky is falling. There always have been and always will be political and economic problems in the U.S. and the world. Don't think we are in some unique place in history. We aren't. There is nothing new under the sun.
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
Borrowing to consume is what's a killer.....
"Sell all that you have and give to the poor........" - JC
Let me give you a real world example. Suppose you borrow $10,000 at 5% from your local bank. You say to yourself, "I can easily make 10% in real estate or precious metals or a good growth stock mutual fund." This ought to be a no-brainer, right? Wrong! Suppose you did this, and, 6 months later, you lost your job, your wife became ill, your child needed an expensive operation, your tenant trashes your property, or any number of other things. What would likely happen is you would sell your "investment" at a loss due to unforeseen circumstances. You liquidate your investment for $5,000. However, you still owe the bank $5,000 PLUS interest. I guarantee you, over the long run, leveraged investments WILL FAIL.
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
I'm sorry, but that statement is absolutely false. You can't make that guaranty because risk is not absolute. Certainly, on average, in some control group of investors, some will fail. Many will win. But there are no guarantees either way.
Does leveraged investing increase risk? Absolutely. But it also increases reward. There are no guarantees, but there are very few guarantees in life anyway....
I know you think that we are not at a unique juncture in history.
But can you point out another situation where the predominant reserve currency (savings) held throughout the world was a fiat currency (and that currency was issued by the largest debtor of all time) ?
We (the USA) can not continue much longer on our present course (large budget and trade deficits, job outsourcing, etc.) without some MAJOR reversal. That reversal of economic flow will come when the Dollar drops drastically.
Your advice has merit (or has had merit) for certain economic cyles of the past. I certainly agree on the getting out of debt part. But I believe that future "cycles" are going to be quite different, at least for the next two years. I wouldn't touch growth stocks or bonds right now. (Maybe stocks of companies that have LEGITIMATE and proven oil reserves would be good now, but that is about it). Maybe by 2006 or '07 it will be time to get into growth stocks.
But keep on bashing precious metals. I honestly am interested in hearing what the "naysayers" think.
PS: The general public is still clueless about precious metals. The UPS driver is an exception. We have a LONG way to go before the "shoeshine boy" and everyone on the street is talking about precious metals.
PPS: Has anyone else noticed that Palladium has gone from $200 to $300 in the past month or so ?
Notice that he did not say he was buying precious metals. I would suggest that he invested in an area where he has significant expertise and that leverages his knowledge and experience to further mitigate the risk.
<< <i>Gold entered a bull market run when it got north of $311 an ounce, silver is in its early stages and with the traditional gold to silver ratio of 17 to 1 silver is tremendously undervalued. cheers, alan mendelson >>
Gold and silver are commodities that respond to supply and demand. Much of the demand may be speculative or result from attempts to corner the market by actually taking delivery. There is no "ratio". This is not the 19th century.
Too much debt is what you have to worry about...
Gold and silver are commodities that respond to supply and demand.
While this is fundamentally true, I submit that prices of commodities respond most strongly to perceptions, rather than reality.
Case in point - how many times have you turned on the news and heard them begin a story with "Oil prices rose today on fears that......."
<< <i>Gold and silver are commodities that respond to supply and demand.
While this is fundamentally true, I submit that prices of commodities respond most strongly to perceptions, rather than reality.
Case in point - how many times have you turned on the news and heard them begin a story with "Oil prices rose today on fears that......." >>
Obviously this is very true, but it's not only true for commodities, it's true for
everything else as well.
In this case however, my perception would be that despite many years of
strong fundamental reasons for silver to advance it didn't. It didn't because
the perception remained that silver is abundant and will always be abundant.
It didn't because peoples' perception has been that with the fed targeting
gold prices and a multitude of more interesting investments there was no log-
ical reason for silver to increase. It didn't because people believed that with
out inflation silver could not perform well.
All these perceptions are changing and now silver is playing catch-up on a
couple decades of much improved fundamentals.
<< <i>Gold and silver are commodities that respond to supply and demand.
While this is fundamentally true, I submit that prices of commodities respond most strongly to perceptions, rather than reality.
Case in point - how many times have you turned on the news and heard them begin a story with "Oil prices rose today on fears that......." >>
Perception is everything. Bush attacked Iraq under the perception that they had WMD. The stock market tanked yesterday under the perception that more terrorists will attack US interests. Alan Greenspan is holding the rates low under the perception that the jobs will pick up.
Nobody knows that the heck is going to happen in the future, other than hope and fear.
Rhodium has shot up from 400 to 730 in 2 months. How to get it though ?
And the three UPS drivers didst approach from the East, bearing gifts of growth stocks, frankincense and myrrh......
Borrowing is GOOD (as TDN points out) when the conditions are to use the funds to buy or use something that will spin off income.
BUT.....borrowing to GET ....with the MEANS to REPAY dwindling daily......well.....
Here we are, folks.
www.AlanBestBuys.com
www.VegasBestBuys.com
cladking - yup, absolutely.
Rhodium has shot up from 400 to 730 in 2 months. How to get it though ?
aV - cheap jewelry!
Silver at $7.73
7:11pm CST
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
Well, I'm poor; therefore, I'm selling silver and giving myself the money. IT WORKS!
the Asian market, has been buying up the majority of silver reserves in the world for some time, how would a mass sell off of silver by the US affect world power and dominance?
Sort of off the beaten path of this thread but, i just wanted to jump in and sound intellegent.
Great thread with greater posts.
Thanks for the ensightful read folks.
We now return you to the intelligent network.....
<< <i>Business cycle? I guess the Japanese buying $200 Billion of our debt last year was just another normal part of our old business cycle. Good thing someone one was buying up $2 BILLION a day in our daily debt creation. This sure is one strange "normal" business cycle we're in. >>
Xenophobia at its best--despite the fact that a vast portion of our national debt is owned by Americans, everyone seems to focus in on foreign-owned debt. Be that as it may, national debt is a very normal thing. You have spoken in other threads about other nations "holding up our economy;" why do you think Euros even exist as a currency anymore? We are not the only nation whose debt/currency is largely owned by others. As for the national debt, that's politics. If I had it my way, I'd axe Social Security, Medicare, Welfare, Medicaid, and the other quasi-socialist economic drains, reform the tax system so the rich can't keep getting out of their taxes through loopholes, and then work on bringing the national debt down a bit. Then again, I'd be impeached in about 10 days too, so...
No, it's not a normal business cycle. Our economy just left the longest period of expansion in HISTORY. I would not expect a "normal" recession at the end of a most EXTRAORDINARY expansion.
<< <i>This is a long term gold and silver bull market. Get used to it. Last time you saw it was 25 years ago. >>
What we saw 25 years ago were two people trying to corner the entire silver market. As I recall, COMEX permitted the Hunt Brothers to use their silver options as collateral for additional silver options, and repeating the cycle until they had about 10 times more silver (on paper) than they could actually afford. Yes, the underlying matrix was a time of extreme economic disturbance. Yes, silver prices would have risen substantially. But without market manipulation driving prices, and prices driving consumer speculation, they never would have touched $50 an ounce.
I'm not a "silver nay-sayer." I'm just loathe to jump on the "silver is going to go up forever" bandwagon. In the economy, we see a business cycle. In precious metals, we see a business cycle. Silver may or may not pass $10 an ounce, I don't know. My totally uninformed personal opinion is that prices will remain up until the election, but who knows? But as a student of history, I've found that frequently when the price on anything (be it tech stocks, silver, or land) starts going up and up, speculation takes over and ultimately prices drop.
EDITED to say: I'm sure the Japanese aren't buying our bonds just because they are altruistic people who want to "help us out." If they thought for half a second that the U.S. was insolvent, they wouldn't touch them with a ten-foot pole.
Long term is another matter. $8 to $10 is not unreasonable.
how would a mass sell off of silver by the US affect world power and dominance?
Short term - not at all. We'd still have our offense and the ability to project force.
Long term - not at all. Eventually the US will be to India/China what Western Europe is to the US today, regardless of it all.
I got some of that much needed rain too - just SE of you. Hope it will grow my seeds which will in turn grow my silver.
Regarding the subject of getting rid of social security - I suggest that the government pay everyone back what they owe them first, starting with me.
About the national debt and farming our jobs out overseas . . . I say get rid of 1/10 of the government jobs, and lower the salary of the ones that remain, including their outrageous benefits when they retire.
What's good for goosey, should be good for govvy.
The problem is that there are a lot of problems, but nobody really does anything about them except whine.
There is no telling what will happen in this twisted world. BTW, I would like to know the number of that Proverbs verse.
<< <i>Regarding the subject of getting rid of social security - I suggest that the government pay everyone back what they owe them first, starting with me. >>
No argument there! How did our stupid government ever manage to get in the truly ingenious position of using the next generation's social security taxes to pay the present generation's payments?
(BTW I wasn't trying to derail this thread by getting into politics, just saying that I agree that the government needs to be more fiscally responsible.)
This has nothing to do with xenophobia. Larry Summers made the following statement today:
Former Treasury chief says U.S. debts imperil stature
Wednesday March 24, 12:08 am ET
By Glenn Somerville
WASHINGTON, March 23 (Reuters) - U.S. stature as the world's leading financial power is increasingly jeopardized by mounting debts that make America dependent on Asia to fund its spending, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said on Tuesday.
"There is surely something odd about the world's greatest power being the world's greatest debtor," Summers said during an address to Washington's International Institute of Economics.
"There is surely a question that must be asked when, in order to finance prevailing levels of consumption, prevailing levels of investment, it is necessary for the United States to be as dependent as it is on the discretionary acts of what are inevitably political entities in other countries," he added.
[snip]
"It can be argued... that the incentive for Japan or China to dump Treasury bills at a rapid rate is not very strong given the consequences it could have for their own economies," he said.
"That is a... reason why a prudent person would avoid immediate concern," he said. "But it surely cannot be prudent for us as a country to rely on a kind of balance of financial terror to hold back reserve sales that would threaten our stability."
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040324/economy_summers_1.html
Vladimir: That's what you think.
- Samuel Beckett, Waiting For Godot
So did he discover this after leaving the Treasury? Or is it just a Democrat campaign speech? Because it sure as heck was going on while he was head of the Treasury.......