That last 10% can be VERY, VERY COSTLY!!
mojorob
Posts: 392 ✭✭
Being reletivly new to the PSA GAME and the Set Registry.....I have to continually ask mysef, where do I draw the line on this stuff as far as spending??
I have been in the 1960's Toy Collecting Game for many years.
I collected and spent large sums of money amassing, what I would consider top collections in the fields of: Vintage GI Joes, Aurora Model kits, Old Store Stock Toys from the 60's.
We didn't have a score board as such like the registry, but the collectors in the fields involved all knew who the heavy hitter's were and the who had the top collections in the country, much like the registry.
When it came to being in the top half a dozen or so in that particular field, like Vintage GI Joe Collecting, you find yourself........going over the deep end and spending what I consider "STUPID MONEY" to aquire those last hard to find rare pieces, that truely define "at least in your mind" your collection from the other's.
This is where the "competitive aspect" of collecting can take over and really screw you up as far as spending way too much money that you will NEVER EVER get back...... to be the top dog in a particular collecting area, or in this case PSA set building.
Just from brief observation since I joined PSA in October of last year, the only way I can see this making any "financal sense" to build a PSA set is that you have to start with a High Grade set, that you obtained at a decent price.
Hope it gradeds out nicely, then pick up another few high grade lots, once again at a reasonable prices and submit what you can from them.
The problem lies in the last 10-15% of trying to push that set to shall we say for lack of a better term"World Class Status" on the Registery.
This is where ......IMHO you can easily loose track of reality and start spending the STUPID MONEY to get those low pop commons like a 1972 Ron Reed PSA 9 for 510.00 mentioned in a CU post that is on the boards now.
It is that last 10% that will kill you in the long run!!
I am not saying that this particular card will prove to ba a poor investment, could possibly be quite the contray and I hope it proves to be for the buyer, however these are the "TYPES OF CARDS" that will prove to be very dangerous to obtain, at least in my past collecting experiences.
When ever you have the top tier of spenders going after the last rare cards, you are in very dangereous territory as far as spending way tooooo much.
Take it from someone that has.
As mentioned, I have been to the top of the summitt in other collecting fields and at the end of the day, and when I look back at history, I can honestly say that most of the mountains I attempted to climb, I would have been much wiser to only have scaled about 90% of them and left it at that.
CAUTION, that last 10% can be very, very costly!!
Just a word to the wise.
Please..........Your Comments.
PS. THANK GOD there wasn't a PSA registry for Vintage GI JOES & AURORA MODEL kits, back ten years ago..... or I would really be in the poor house now!!
CHEERS!!
Kirk
I have been in the 1960's Toy Collecting Game for many years.
I collected and spent large sums of money amassing, what I would consider top collections in the fields of: Vintage GI Joes, Aurora Model kits, Old Store Stock Toys from the 60's.
We didn't have a score board as such like the registry, but the collectors in the fields involved all knew who the heavy hitter's were and the who had the top collections in the country, much like the registry.
When it came to being in the top half a dozen or so in that particular field, like Vintage GI Joe Collecting, you find yourself........going over the deep end and spending what I consider "STUPID MONEY" to aquire those last hard to find rare pieces, that truely define "at least in your mind" your collection from the other's.
This is where the "competitive aspect" of collecting can take over and really screw you up as far as spending way too much money that you will NEVER EVER get back...... to be the top dog in a particular collecting area, or in this case PSA set building.
Just from brief observation since I joined PSA in October of last year, the only way I can see this making any "financal sense" to build a PSA set is that you have to start with a High Grade set, that you obtained at a decent price.
Hope it gradeds out nicely, then pick up another few high grade lots, once again at a reasonable prices and submit what you can from them.
The problem lies in the last 10-15% of trying to push that set to shall we say for lack of a better term"World Class Status" on the Registery.
This is where ......IMHO you can easily loose track of reality and start spending the STUPID MONEY to get those low pop commons like a 1972 Ron Reed PSA 9 for 510.00 mentioned in a CU post that is on the boards now.
It is that last 10% that will kill you in the long run!!
I am not saying that this particular card will prove to ba a poor investment, could possibly be quite the contray and I hope it proves to be for the buyer, however these are the "TYPES OF CARDS" that will prove to be very dangerous to obtain, at least in my past collecting experiences.
When ever you have the top tier of spenders going after the last rare cards, you are in very dangereous territory as far as spending way tooooo much.
Take it from someone that has.
As mentioned, I have been to the top of the summitt in other collecting fields and at the end of the day, and when I look back at history, I can honestly say that most of the mountains I attempted to climb, I would have been much wiser to only have scaled about 90% of them and left it at that.
CAUTION, that last 10% can be very, very costly!!
Just a word to the wise.
Please..........Your Comments.
PS. THANK GOD there wasn't a PSA registry for Vintage GI JOES & AURORA MODEL kits, back ten years ago..... or I would really be in the poor house now!!
CHEERS!!
Kirk
0
Comments
You're absolutely right - I am down to the last 1% (3 or 4 cards), and I am afraid that my willingness to pay is very, very high (which is one reason I try to keep my list of needed cards private). However -- along the way, I have made some nice profits on upgrades, strategic sales, etc. So perhaps that balances things out a little bit.
"All evil needs to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
once a person's fanancial security is complete ..(house paid for, kids taken care of, substancial savings) they might have some money to pursue other interests.
while some people might go out and buy a sports cars..others might one to have the best baseball card collection in the world.
i say, travel around, eat some good food, enjoy a little dance here and there ....and if you have any money left ...spend it !
no sense in dying with a fotune under the mattress....take a cab and let the heirs take the bus.
Groucho Marx
now if your set building to make $$$...you need to do either 8 or 9 and then pray the market dont crash...i collect for the love of the cards...and how they look slabbed (which i think adds to the cards and makes it more official cause ya know its not tampered with).
Loth
Nice macho mantra--but not at all accurate. Actually the last 10% will uncover, I believe, who the fools are. If being a man means spending more money to prove how big your penis is or isn't then, yes, I suppose you have a point. Perhaps being a "boy" means exercising self-control and common sense? The fact is, set-building a major issue is expensive. You can't get to 90% without a substantial investment (usually 5-10k minimum).
I think I do understand where you're coming from with your comment--that the last 10% typically contains cards that require lengthy searches that are often fruitless and require great patience. I that regard I absolutle agree. As for spending $235 on a Long Duk Dong low-pop, I'm not so sure. Of course, what's expensive to me is not exactly what's expensive to others.
I guess it boils down to, you WILL lose money if being the first guy to own that "special" card is important to you. How much you can afford to lose and not have to sleep on the couch or hire a good divorce attorney will differ from collector to collector. I know a guy--actually not me--who runs to his mailbox when the credit card statement shows up so his wife won't know what he's spending...that's a problem...and I'm not sure it's all that unique
dgf
Awesome.
dgf
Regardless of what type of collector you are (deep or shallow pockets), there are some cards in any given VINTAGE SET that are inherently difficult to find. I've been working on the '69 Topps Baseball set in PSA 8 or higher since 1999. I consider myself a very prudent and patient collector looking for quality and value and I'm at 85%. I promise you that if someone tried to "bottom feed" on the toughest 67 cards (last 10%) in the '69 Topps Baseball set and think they'll get them at below SMR, at SMR or even double SMR, they'll will be in for a rude awakening. If these cards haven't surfaced in the last 3 years when dealers know that they could get $75+ for an 8 and $200+ for a 9, what's to make anyone think that it will get a lot easier? Some perceived "tough cards" do show up in small bunches, but most don't. It's all about supply and demand, and there will always be some vintage cards in short supply and therefore high demand and you don't have to be Alan Greenspan to figure out what that does to the price of the card. And oh, BTW I'm only talking about the '69 Basic Set. The Master Set will put hair on any man's chest. Try "waiting out" collectors on those high grade White Letter variations.
mojorob,
Good Post!!!
I don't think that the last 10% will be as costly as trying to be one of the "heavy hitters".I mean,the last 10% of one's set is usually the lower pop cards that command premium dollars or they would have already been bought.They will more than likely hold most of their value unless they are really low pop cards and after purchase,the market is inundated with more of them.That is usually not the case as most of the time low pop cards are low pops for a reason.The area where "stupid dollars" are spent is when ego sets in and one finds themselves needing to be the top guy on the registry or among the top 3 or 4.I think that with most sets,being in the top 10 should be fairly obtainable and not too costly,although I have not done the research to back up this statement.
I think that as far as investment for the best return goes,my personal feelings are that anything 7 or better will yield the most return over the long haul.That is not to say that I am bashing collectors that build lower graded sets,I just feel that the higher graded cards will always command better prices.There are certainly bigger pop numbers for the lower graded cards in most instances.
Vic
I think generally speaking this is a very wise move, and helps ease the temptation to go out and overspend to get that last small remaining percentage that will more often than not, cost you way too much.
It is just human nature to when you get close to completing something, too throw caution to the wind and tell yourself, ahhh it is twice or three times what I should be paying, but it will get me to where I want to go TODAY.
Next week, or next month or next year when reality finally sets in, you say to yourself, "darn it "why did I spend so much to finish that set??
I was doing just great until the very end, then I blew it. <$$$$>
All I am saying, is that the set registry concept, which I totally enjoy, appreciate and use.........is geared to promote this type of spending madness.
So just a word to the wise........be prudent even when it gets down to the last 10-20% or so.
I know that is the toughest time, but a wise move it will ultimately be.
Just my .02
Kirk
Well everybody has to answer that question to themselves, as it is different for each person obviously.
I am just speaking in general terms, I know there are many success stories out there, where people have paid high and done very well.
What I am saying is that if it seems to good to be true..........well it basically is 9 times out of 10.
Beacuse of the registry, certain cards have gone up in value 5X 10X 20X, people that are buying these cards, and "anting up" should be very careful.
Sometimes folding ...........is the right move.
You can't play every hand and win in this game.
It may not be the big stars neither, but the commons can be the pain . If you want a very high end set you may need to re- submit them over and over untill you find the desired grade.
It's all about the thrill of the chase...
EO
You are what makes the world go round!!
God Bless You.
It appears that although there are very close to a few on the way to,or a little over the 90% mark,nobody has a complete set.
If for example Wetzel's 76 was once complete I honestly don't know, but what cards from 76 to 84 are missing cards either in 8 or better in oder to complete a Topps set from 76 up?
Before I fell off the chart at 93% there was a question about 75 cards to finish in 8 or better.It's changed since actively following the final 10% but where do things stand from 76 to maybe 84?
My Auctions
<< <i>EO,
You are what makes the world go round!!
God Bless You.
that's right so stop taxing the wealthy
and vote bush in '04.
Great post. And it certainly is a topic we all wrestle with, and come to different conclusions. If your set is strictly an investment, I think that paying top dollar to have the best set is not the way to go, although if you "knew" that there were no more to be graded, then the rare cards would be a good investment.
But it is like anything else. Perhaps many of you have heard of the law of diminishing returns. It applies to almost all in life, and basically you can get 80% of what you are doing for 20 % of the effort, money, etc. The last % requires increasingly more effort or expense per percent. An example that many of us can relate to who live in the suburbs is your lawn. You can have a nice lawn for a little work. But if you want to have a "perfect" lawn, it will require significantly more work. For most of us, it is not important, so we take our 80% with 20% of the work. You can be a good pianist with two hours a week practice. To be the best, you have to practice many hours per day.
For me, I like to know that I have put together a "World Class" set. If I am going to make an effort at something, then I am going to do it all out. I have spent a good deal of money, but even more importantly, a great deal of time. For me it is worth it. As Calleocho says, you can't take it with you. I would much rather spend my money on a great set, than to spend it on an expensive car or put it into the bank or stock market. Others would rather drive around in a beamer.
When I sell, if I ever do, then I wil probably lose money, but I will have more satisfaction than if I built the 10th best set, and made a few bucks. It is all about what you want. When I am on my deathbed and look back at what I did with my collecting, I will have a lot more satisfaction about my collecting accomplishment than I would if I died with an extra $$ in the bank.
Does this mean this is all about "macho" and size? Perhaps it is, but if someone isn't proud of their collection, then why collect at all? I have a lot of admiration and respect for all collectors, and I think that each one of us has to decide what is important to us. That is why I am one of the 1%ers!!
And that's something you can never put a pricetag on.
My Auctions
Im 32...I have many of years collecting in front of me...I'm betting on the fact that there will be plenty more PSA 9s (higher POPs) from the 60s and 70s to surface in the next 20 years when I reach 52. For me it does not make sense to blow my wad on cards from the 60's and later when I (hopefully) have so many years of collecting in front of me.
Now in regards to the 50's and earlier....that is a whole different ballgame.
My motto is that you make your money when you buy the card..not sell it.
John
<< <i>The last card(s) for my sets are the high dollar cards that I keep putting off buying in hopes of finding a better deal....by the time there's nothing else to buy EXCEPT those cards, I have to resign myself to the fact that either I'm gonna wait forever for that better deal (that hasn't shown up at all) or pull the trigger and plunk down the cash it'll take. Like anything else, sober decisions are always the best - for me, a little (or a lot) of restraint is a requirement. >>
PLUNK DOWN THE DOUGH & BE DONE WITH IT DAMNIT! THEN YOUY CAN PURSUE MORE PROFITABLE VENTURES.
My .02/100........
Put the calculator down.... and close all of your price guides.
Dim the lights, and find your favorite classic rock album. Crank it up really loud, to where the neighbors will start complaining, and sing along... as loud as you can. Now just start typing in crazy high numbers for snipes and bid away with reckless abandon. Damn the torpedoes ... full steam ahead!
You'll live a lot longer ... and enjoy the experience more!
Mike
PS - I also find that wearing ski goggles and having a fan blow in my face really helps too.
I also agree with Art, in that I'm also not convinced that cards will always be going to be cheaper in the future. The high pop stuff will, but the lower pop stuff won't. Let's face it, the Baby Boomer generation is on the verge of retiring and many will have a lot of discretionary money to throw around. Again, it will all boils down to supply and demand.
I will certainly have to try that.
Oh wait, I guess I have done that in the past.
More than once actually, I LIVED IT for years at a time.
All good posts, but I really like Buckwheat's 1%er.
You see, I have had the 1%er mentality for many, many years.
Not neccessarily in building PSA sets, but as stated in previous posts to this thread in other collecting fields.
I am just here to tell you guy's that I have learned from my history, as just about every other collector that I have
run into that had these increadible collections has also learned a very painful lession, that it is VERY COSTLY to be in the top tier of any collecting field.
Many more times than not, more costly than you will ever get back out of it.
That is just a plain fact and the nature of the beast.
I just want you guy's to know that I had the Damn The Torpedos Mentality, the: I know I will probably never get my money back mentality, the: I am on a Mission From GOD Mentality, the: I want to be Number 1 mentality. the: I will complete this task at all costs mentality.
And so have many of my contemparies, each and every one to a man, has lost his collective butt$$$$.....when it has come time to sell.
Now I realize that many of you will say: Well I will never sell my collection.
But the funny thing is 9 out of 10 have sold, at least in the collecting fields I was in and they never thought they would either.
Especially when we were all in our collecting hey days, so to speak.
The PSA Registry is a reletively new thing as far as being on the scene, time wise.
I am just here stating a general thought, that if you think you will never sell you are probably mistaken.
And that my collecting history dictates: to PROCEED WITH GREAT CAUTION when spending the big bucks to round out these graded sets.
I am just speaking in general terms, and trying to pass on what I have learned from my experiences, all though be it in other collecting fields.
Frankly I sincerely wish everyone who is building PSA Graded sets continued enjoyment and success and nothing but.
It truely is a lot of fun and adds an interresting demension to our collecting passion and that is impossible to put a price tag on.
Just be careful guys.
That's all.
Mojorob
PS. To Mike T. : "It's a long way to the top.....When you want to Rock & Roll." AC/DC
"... I saw a Dead Head sticker on a Cadillac... a little voice inside my head said don't look back, you can never look back"
Mike T.
The punch line is that this same card sold for over $1100 recently. This is not to say that I got a great deal...it's quite possible that over the long run we might have both overpaid.
When you start a set, it's important to set realistic goals based on what you're willing to spend in both $$$ and time. With most sets, it's important to make sure to buy the well populated cards at significant discounts to SMR. This allows you to splurge on the tough cards. The last 10% takes about two to three times the amount of time that it takes to gather the first 90% of the set.
The biggest piece of advice that I could give you is to be patient. On a personal note, I set a goal in January 2004 to improve my 1964 Topps hockey set rating of 7.14 to 7.5 by the end of the year. As I started plugging my dream upgrades into my excel spreadsheet, I started to realize that I was probably kidding myself. (Those of you who know what a bloodbath the 1964's are on EBAY know what I am talking about). Just this week, I have had the good fortune to come to terms on two major deals with two guys that I have known for quite some time which will bring my set rating to almost 7.45! Good things happen when you least expect it!
Here's a link to an article that I wrote some time ago for SMR.
Building PSA graded sets on a budget
Good luck with your set.
Regards,
Alan
And stop outbidding me on cards that I want!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
High quality - Rob, The Duke - they take pride in having the best possible collection of a given year and don't necessarily want to own a complete set from every year.
Many sets - Look at what Davalillo, Stump and The King are doing - They have enormous collections from many different years - sometimes having extremely high GPA's while other time's settling for very good but having the best is not always the most imortant goals. They tend to be long term holders of cards.
Builders - Several of us (myself included) have built very nice nice and once they are done the challenge is over and the sets are sold. The thrill comes in the hunt.
Investors - Basilone is a prime exampe - They study the market and buy the values. Any card can be purchased from them for the right price and they tend to do a lot of buying and selling. Lmayer also fits into this category. They can assemble great collections - perhaps not completing as many sets as others - but at the end of the day they have very nice collections without a huge outlay of cash.
Submitters - Frank B, Brian, Mike, and Dude are examples of people who have built very nice collections through primarily finding raw cards and submitting them to psa themselves and selling the extras. I wish I had the patience for this type of collecting. They tend to own some very nice cards and I definitely want to buy from these guys if they sell.
Isn't it great that we can collect in whatever manner we want. Some people may look at others and think that they are doing it wrong but the reality is that it doesn't really matter who you chose to collect as long as you enjoy it.
Wayne
I have five graded sets, with GPAs ranging between 7.3 and 8.1. My cost basis in these sets is substantially below SMR. Two of the five are below 30% and those are not the lower graded sets. I had a great start with raw and worked some great deals early on.
Every time I upgrade, my cost basis as a % of SMR, increases. Someday I'll quit that nonsense.
I tried doing what he does for just one week several months ago....and it takes a TON of time. Going through hundreds and hundreds of eBay auctions every day, comparing to SMR and POP...take a huge amount of time...I do not know how he does it...each and every week.
this is not to say that i don't know a time WILL come when i have to drop some serious cash for a handful of cards and i am perfectly willing to do so.
BASILONE had a good point as well, you don't have to be locked into just one set. i have a more than few sets that i will focus on if the market for one set becomes inflated by a few heavyweights. it's all about fun for me and i'm perfectly content not being number one. ENJOY.
Great post. We all have different styles, and so just collect however suits your personality best.
When I don't get out what I put into it, I will figure the lost money cost as being the cost of the enjoyment I got out of it. Many things I spend money on that I will never recoup, such as vacations, a big screen TV, a piano, etc.
If losing money on a collection takes away your enjoyment, then certainly only buy the "deals". Personally, I buy the deals to resell, and help me to "pay up" for the rare cards I need for my set.
Nick
Reap the whirlwind.
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