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NEED HELP on MERC POP WEIRDNESS!!!! ARE WE ALL CRACKING OUR CHANCES OF MAINTAINING LOW POPS??

marcmoishmarcmoish Posts: 6,305 ✭✭✭✭✭
in PCGS Set Registry Forum
I've been offred by a fellow board member TWO really nice Merc's. One is a 36-D, and 2nd is 37-S both are 67FB and rather nice examples.
My dilemma and I hope some others can shed some light on - is the 36-D had a POP of 30 with none higher exactly ONE year ago. Today the POP is 53 with 3 higher. Thats is a WHOPPING 27 NEW examples or is it?

The 37-S had 28 one year ago with NONE higher - today POP is 40 with 1 in 68FB.

What the heck? that many in ONE year......... imageimage


can anyone enlighten me here, and perhaps explain how there is suddenly a huge jump in POPS - is it all crackouts? How will or has it effected values and rarity.
....ANd if it is all crackouts are we not hurting our chances as each month goes by of higher and higher POPS - which would eventually bring values and perceived scarcity/rarity down?


Marc

Comments

  • LucyBopLucyBop Posts: 14,001 ✭✭✭
    the problem you now have is that the HepKitty attacks on many fronts...

    she is known for buying raw gems and getting them graded...

    she brought many key ms66fbl frankies on board.......

    and now, she is really focusing on raw Winged Libertys...

    image

    image

    image

    and off to PCGs they go.....
    imageBe Bop A Lula!!
    "Senorita HepKitty"
    "I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
  • FairlanemanFairlaneman Posts: 10,424 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Are all of the newer MS67 coins really MS67 coins ? This is a question you must ask yourself and in my opinion always see the coin before you buy one of the MS67 coins. Not only has this affected the later dates but to some extent the gradeflation is working its way into the earlier dates also.

    My little theory is that the graders have seen so many Modern Coins in the past few years and this has influenced the grade that is now assigned to a more classical coin issue. I am not sure if this is good or bad for a collector. One thing that a collector should do now is take a real good look at their coins before selling and make a determination whether some of them will upgrade or not. I hated to say this is what we must do but if we do not try for the upgrade someone else down the line will do it for sure.

    I don't know about the rest of you but in the last year or so I have seen many MS67 coins that plain do not stand up to some of the MS66 coins that were graded earlier. This is what I have based the previous comments on.

    Certainly new coins will hit the market, but as Marc has pointed out, is there really this many of them still out there waiting to be graded in the lofty grades ? I do not think so.

    Ken
  • LucyBopLucyBop Posts: 14,001 ✭✭✭


    << <i>is there really this many of them still out there waiting to be graded in the lofty grades ? >>



    i'm going to find em!

    imageBe Bop A Lula!!
    "Senorita HepKitty"
    "I want a real cool Kitty from Hepcat City, to stay in step with me" - Bill Carter
  • FairlanemanFairlaneman Posts: 10,424 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Lucy for almost thirty years I have walked into shows with the hope someone has brought a fresh Merc collection in to sell.

    It has not happened yet......image There is always hope and anticipation though. image

    Ken
  • jbstevenjbsteven Posts: 6,178 ✭
    I know for a fact that a certain PCGS grader will not give out ms68's to mercs without full bands. When this grader is at shows or at shows and the mercs are being submitted they are giving out ms68 NB to some when this grader is not around.

    I think it is crackouts, gradeflation and certain graders limit coins to certain grades.
  • bushmaster8bushmaster8 Posts: 5,616 ✭


    << <i>

    I don't know about the rest of you but in the last year or so I have seen many MS67 coins that plain do not stand up to some of the MS66 coins that were graded earlier. ...
    Ken >>



    How true! How true! I don't do too much with merc's., but I have noticed the same phenomenon has happened with Roosevelts big time!image
    "Wars are really ugly! They're dirty
    and they're cold.
    I don't want nobody to shoot me in the foxhole."
    Mary






    Best Franklin Website
  • FairlanemanFairlaneman Posts: 10,424 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think the new PCGS grading guide makes its appearance at the Portland ANA show. If nothing else is purchased this will be. I need to see if my grade skills need to be changed !

    On second thought I think the grade skills are fine just as they are now. image Work may be needed on the Cherry Picking skills though.

    Ken
  • marcmoishmarcmoish Posts: 6,305 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I hated to say this is what we must do but if we do not try for the upgrade someone else down the line will do it for sure.

    Ken,
    I hate to admit it - but as much as I adamently oppose these tactics -your correct - but that said, I am still very much bothered by my concern in relation to scarcity and perceived value.
    The for 36-D in 67FB as an EXAMPLE has been scarce period in this grade etc - is it now NOT scarce anymore with that many certified in past 12 months???

    Jason,
    I hear you but that much in the past 12 months?? What has chganged in the past 12 months?? I mentioned TWO particular dates above as examples - I'm seeing this across the board maybe not as much, and not really within the rarer dates - but this is ridiculous.


    Marc
  • FairlanemanFairlaneman Posts: 10,424 ✭✭✭✭✭
    People were calling out FOUL when PCGS was strict with the grades a couple of years ago. Was that when FOUL should have been called or is it NOW when it should be called ? So much for low Pops in the Merc Series, those days are now gone unless you collect MS68's. Hmmm...how long will it be before the 68's are a Dime a Dozen ?

    What a FUN Hobby this has became. The TPG's really keep you on your toes sometimes. image Oh well, just watch and learn as a New Collector would and all will be just Peachy.





    Maybe......image

    Ken
  • jbstevenjbsteven Posts: 6,178 ✭
    marc

    I really think it comes down to the standards being relaxed a little. The big boys who submit coins all the time have been doing it for a long time and will keep doing it. i know that 4-5 ms68 no band coins were made at a certain show with show grading.

    It seems kinda funny that roughly 90 ms68 no bands were graded in 15 years before that but in 1 day 4-5 were graded. I know this as I have seen them and the cert numbers were very close to each other (I believe at least 3 were in a row).
  • onlyroosiesonlyroosies Posts: 3,300 ✭✭✭✭
    Don't forget that quite a few of the new mercs being made over the last year have come from NGC holders.
    I wouldn't attribute all the rise in the pops to PCGS upgrades. I have crossed many mercs over the course of
    last year. If you had a properly graded merc in an NGC holder and wanted to sell it, It just didn't make
    sence not to cross it. Tie this in with PCGS crackouts that didn't make it and tags that didn't get turned
    in and I'll bet those 2 items can account for 80% of the increase in pops.
  • CocoinutCocoinut Posts: 2,512 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Marc,

    I'm sure that some of the increase is due to crackouts. In its early years PCGS was very stingy with high grades, so some of the former 66's are now 67's or even 68's. I'm at work and can't refer to the early pop reports right now, but I know that many older coins were seldom graded above MS66, and even MS69 and PR69 modern commems were scarce until after the mid-1990's. If I go home at lunch today, I'll take a look at the Merc pops from the late 1980's-early 1990's, and post them here so you can see what I mean.

    Also, there are a few older collectors such as myself who still have raw Mercs. I probably have over 50 miscellaneous dates that I purchased in the '60's and '70's, plus an original roll of '45-P's (no full bands though - I checked when I bought the roll back in 1970. It was recognized as a rarity long before then.)

    Then there are coins that belong to those who lost interest in the hobby or have passed away, with coins still in their possession or passed on to heirs. These are the people dealers love to see, because they usually don't realize when they have something of value.

    It's probable that there are still original rolls of some of the scarcer dates from 1934 onward. Not a lot of them, but it would only take one gem roll to have a huge impact on the pops. The current hot market and emphasis on high grades would be enough to make many owners want to break up the rolls. It would be interesting to see the serial #'s of the coins added in the past year to see if they are consecutive.

    Regardless of the reason, over the long term pops can only increase.

    Jim
    Countdown to completion of my Mercury Set: 1 coin. My growing Lincoln Set: Finally completed!
  • gripgrip Posts: 9,962 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Jim
    I agree with your statment,there are rolls to be found,I know of more than one person in hes late 70's that have rolls of Indians,and Mercs.Think about how maney more there are not known??
    Al
  • marcmoishmarcmoish Posts: 6,305 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Jason,
    thanks for the info and yes it does sound retarded - this loosening up is going to hurt the "typical" 67's for example - those that are really fussy and choosy will fare much better when they need to sell . The 68's ...well are they really 68's? I mean you've seen 68's and you've seen 67's. I have too though way much less than you - truthfully - those I saw were just really nice 67's imho.

    Craig I actually did not think of that - the NGC twist in regards to Merc's . I actuaklly can see that as having occured.

    Jim,
    when you see the POP differences over last 12 months you'll see what I mean. You'll be very very surprised, actually not anymore - I'd like to see a more detailed examination of this - but again I'll have to assume it is the cause of the above explanations - mainly crack outs.
    AL, scary thought I hope no rollds of gem better dates - I highly doubt it but you know - you never know!!!
    Ken, I totally share with you the pain - it was definently foolish and now foul

    Thanks all for the comments
    Marc
  • CocoinutCocoinut Posts: 2,512 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Here are the populations of FB Mercs from 5 Population Reports over a 15½ year period. The first line for each month is the population, and below that is the percentage of Mercs in each grade in relation to the total FB Mercs at that point in time. Notice how the percentage of coins graded MS66FB or better has increased over the years. It's likely that in the first years of PCGS's existence, a lot of people weren't familiar with their standards, and submitted coins that they thought were 65's (or 66's), and found out the hard way that PCGS wasn't as generous as they had hoped. However, the huge increase in MS66FB or better over the last 4 years seems more likely to be due to grade inflation. Check out the numbers, and draw your own conclusions.

    image

    Jim
    Countdown to completion of my Mercury Set: 1 coin. My growing Lincoln Set: Finally completed!
  • marcmoishmarcmoish Posts: 6,305 ✭✭✭✭✭
    With those #'s posted - I'd really have to agree in the earlier years PCGS was much much stricter, they have absolutely relaxed last 12 months for sure - and the "new" 67 examples are they truly 67? the answer is NO!
    Jim, these #'s also reflect original interest at being quite low - as the years passed PCGS for example, as in this case, has gotten many many more coins to grade as certified PCGS Merc's have become very popular - so I can possibly understand the staedy rise somehwat thru end of 90's (10/1999 as you have) but the tremendous jump to 2004 - is what was disturbing me.

    I guess when you factor in NGC crosses, crackouts, and leaner grading it is all beginning to make sense now.
    WIth that in mind I shall continue my quest of being really picky as in the end.......it is all what the coin is in the eye of the beHOLDER.



    Marc
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