Vintage collector wondering about the modern card market

uniship

OK - somebody educate me. It seems a lot of people are actually buying modern cards - ungraded even. Do modern cards actually have pockets of long term strength? I am not being facetious - I would like to hear from Joe Stalin or some of you modern experts. What cards are people buying with legitimate long term potential? Is it only limited numbered cards? Game used? Hot rookies? Any sets sell well - consistently? Has any card set from 1999 appreciated in value? How about 2000? I honestly don't know, but I would entertain learning more about modern seeing that I will be having a table at the national this year. Educate me please. Thanks!

Rainman

i collect both modern and vintage, so am by no means an expert on either.

some cards which have appreciated

albert pujols
mark prior
hank blalock
dontrelle willis
joe mauer

the last 2 have been a lower % return and it's fluctuated more than prior/pujols

both= 2001 releases

sets which have consistently sold well

bowman chrome- 2001 + 2002

also, leaf certified 2001 sells pretty well (pujols auto)

"older" modern cards which have appreciated
arod
bonds
maddux
mcgwire
palmeiro

however, these tend to fluctuate

and there's the michael jordan rc of course. psa 10's going for 5k on ebay right now. but i'm bitter on that given as how they were selling so cheaply 10 years ago and i didn't hoard them like candy.

some people "spread their bets"- buying everything from ALL rcs, #d, atos, game used, etc. i tend to focus mainly on rcs of players i've researched from 1 product (usually bowman chrome)- i also try to pick up autos. i choose a handful of rookies to focus on rather than buying multiple cards of baseball america's top 100 rookies (that's a lot of $$$ to drop).

joker73

I'll defer to the others on the baseball end of things, though it seems that good rookie "speculators" and certain set builders (like the Heritage releases) tend to do ok in terms of preserving or building value over time.

With regards to football, the only thing that has held steady in value have been autographs of HOFers and current players who either don't sign much or will one day be enshrined in the Hall. Premiums are often paid for scarcity, but the bottom line is that a Joe Montana certified auto (for example) from one of the major manufacturers will always have a natural floor price-wise that most other cards simply don't have. Even high-grade rookie cards are no sure thing - just take a look at the ups and downs of key cards like Moss or Manning's SPA rookie in PSA 9 or 10 (and they really redefined and re-energized the modern card market). That's not to say you can't make some decent short-term money on potential stars (Brady's a great example, his '00 SPA wasn't even on the radar when that set was released). But, if history is any indicator, the demand will die down over the next year or two, and today's heights will be tomorrow's sales at a loss ...

Robert

goodriddance189

"best" rookie cards (B. Chrome, SP Authentic, etc) are primarily driven by performance, rather than hype. as long as there is a clear cut best card, i think investing in modern rookies (of proven players at least) is relatively safe. the rest of the lower tiered rookies seem to get lost in the shuffle of everything else. also, proven and up and comers with very few rookies always seem like safe investments. guys like Hank Blalock, Jose Reyes, etc should hold their value is their on the field performance improves.

complete sets have become almost obsolete with the proliferation of serial numbered and short printed base cards. base sets (minus the SP's sell for almost nothing), even for premium sets like Donruss Elite. i think theyre great investments from a collecting stance. large base sets like Fleer Tradition, Heritage, Archives, Topps Total, Topps, etc always seem to have a decent resale value. it seems that most sets with a long term collector base seem to hold their value, while one time sets like (insert name of Fleer set here)get lost in the shuffle.

game used and low serial numbered cards.....99% get overlooked once newer products get released.

autographs seem to be decent investments, and they haven't been totally ruined by overproduction. i would assume this is due to the signing fees companies must pay.


these are just my observations, and they might be off considering i havent purchased anything modern in almost 2 years

joestalin

well, no one in 1952 was buying Mantle cards...actually no one in 1955 was buying Mantle cards. Rose
wasn't a big seller in 1963 either...what does this tell us?

Today's market is all about hype, would you believe that a card is actually worth more if a guy ISN"T
in the majors? Once he hits the majors he is expected to produce big time, and usually they
don't and their card prices suffer. Everyone is looking for the next big star and today you are looking
for someone who might be starting this year...guys like Rios and Edwin Jackson.

If you remember back in 2001 Pujols was hugely over shadowed by other things, namely Ichiro
and Bonds, he got hurt in 2002 and his card prices were cheap, that was the last time and perhaps
the last time forever!

As far as solid products that deliver every year, you really have to do your homework. Bowman
chrome and bowman chrome draft have been up there year after year...actually since 99. There
are certain times then other products have a guys only rookie card, those are the times when
card prices can get crazy, like what happened with Josh Beckett's UC UV RC, and Willis' Bowman
chrome draft. I predict the same thing with a certain Ranger player who will have a shot at starting
this year.

Topps is solid and delivers the top rookies, playoff is starting to get the main rookies too. Upper
Deck puts out premeire prospects which puts out XRC's of guys who won't be playing for another 5
years! Their strongest contribution is always Ultimate..but it will cost you. I think a box of
bowman chrome draft is much better, you get a stack of rookies and chances are the hype monster
will strike a few of them. The bowman chrome gold refractors, with a print run of just 25 are the
premiere card to own of those rookies.

Here are some other opinions:

GU..dead, even beckett said it, how fleer can continue to sell 12 products a year in each sport only
putting GU in them is beyond me.

Autos: This is where it is at and if there are rookie cards today without ink then it is a rarity (Rios might be
one of the last ones). Bowman chrome and chrome draft are highly sought after. I though
DLP was great too.

Low Numbered...They can still be hot, rarity will sell almost anything, parallels are still hot in rookies, but
I think people will stop paying high premiums for autographs that are numbered or
just feature different foil or something.

Appreciation: Yes..99 Bowman chrome, 99 UD UV, 99 TT Sets, 01 Bow Chrome,01 Elite...I could go on
for a long time! 2002 Boxes of Donruss the rookies could be bought for 19 bucks a
pop at the end of the season last year, now they are close to 50 and will only
go up.

I think knowledge about the rookies and perhaps more importantly what cards they had issued
is the key. The beckett rookie roledex is an absloute as far as rookie buying/selling/speculating.

As far as set collecting, there are few sets that draw intrest yearly. Fleer tradition used to be
on of those sets, but fleer screwed that up. Heritage is perhaps the mainstay of collecting, the best
of modern worlds with a link back to the 50's. UD Vintage puts out a similar set, but they really
don't have the history to compete with topps. If I had to keep a hundred or so cards in a box
that would one day be sought after, a few of them would be base heritage short prints.

I hope I answered some questions! It isn't too late to run out to target and round up some heritage
boxes.

Kevin