How on earth does PSA come up with SMR prices?

goodriddance189

i was looking up some of my cards on the online SMR and i'm really confused. how the hell does PSA find market info for some of these cards? for example, the SMR for a 1979 OPC Ken Dryden PSA 9 increased to $48 this month. interesting, considering i own the only PSA 9 Dryden, and i bought it over 18 months ago. they also list prices for around 20 PSA 10's from the same set, even though there has only been on 10 graded (Gretzky).

i can understand inaccurate prices for cards in the SMR, but how can they list cards that don't technically exist yet?

Hockeybonkers99

good question,

I wish I knew the answer to it.

ctsoxfan

<< <i>for example, the SMR for a 1979 OPC Ken Dryden PSA 9 increased to $48 this month. interesting, considering i own the only PSA 9 Dryden, and i bought it over 18 months ago. they also list prices for around 20 PSA 10's from the same set, even though there has only been on 10 graded (Gretzky). >>



Wow, interesting observation! I know nothing about hockey cards, but how strange that you own the only 1/1 in that card, yet it's price goes up. Perhaps it has something so to with demand for the card, but how that is measured is anyone's guess.

MorrellMan

Good call - how could they have known I was lusting after that 1/1? Could there be some activity on this card comparably graded by one of the other companies?

'59 Morrell's are priced up thru 9s and there is only one card graded as high as 7!

scottsusor

Just a guess here, but I'd imagine they have a computer program that adjusts values for all cards in each set based NOT on true market value but rather on their relative supply/demand compared with all other cards they've graded in that set. In other words, for example, your 1/1 last month was 1/1 amongst, say 10,000 total cards graded for that set. This month, its 1/1 amongst 10,100 total cards graded for that set. Hence, an adjustment upward. But if they really do this, then Sports "Market" Report is really misnamed.

Scott

Fuzz

The section at the front of the pricing section of the printed SMR version called "Cards not yet graded or few known" explains how they do it.
It is clearly just an estimate. I have several 1 of 1's that are listed in the guide as well. At least your goes up as mine have gone down or stayed flat.
Fuzz

poeandbb

It appears that the SMR pricing is based on "heads it's $100, tails it's $500." That "price guide" is so far off base, they may as well not even have a price guide.

ydsotter

Good point...
This was the first point I brought up when I joined a few years ago.

At what point does SMR need to acknowledge that a card CONSISTIENTLY sells 2x-10x smr or how can they price card in a grade that doesn't exist...

Consistiently... is a few years worth of data sufficient?
is no data whatsoever sufficient?

If GR wants to sell his dryden...
the most useful info to the buyer and himself would be a notation that there is insufficient data to list a value.

Aknot

Well if you had price reports on a few '84 #123 Topps Marino rookies graded at 9, and they go up in price (because of circulation) you can only assume the 10 even if there was only one would also go up. If people are willing to pay "X" for 9's on a consistent basis logic only dictates you would pay more for a 10 as long as it was availiable. Just because it is out of circulation (being held by only one person) does not stop it from growing (or decreasing) in value. Unless they say they do it only based on that cards "movement" and not the combination of the moving of all cards of that player/set/card.

pc

the smr is an example of a guide where collectors
and traders can provide input and take an active
role.i email joe orlando with many transactions and
he has been great at recognizing them and adding them
to the SMR.so for you CENSORED that have 2 psabashing
posts get involved instead of criticising.the SMR like much
in life IS WHAT YOU MAKE IT.YOU GET WHAT YOU GIVE.

poeandbb

I'm already paying to receive the SMR. Do I have to contribute to it also? I realize that it is impossible to keep accurate prices on so many cards, but it would be nice if the SMR could be within 35-40% of the going price of some stable cards.

wolfbear

I'd like to see it become a quarterly.
The resources expended to put out a monthly, would instead be used to make it more accurate.

But hey, isn't there another thread going,
where buyers are complaining that dealers want more than SMR for their cards ?

It would be nice to have it both ways,
but in the meantime try repeating : it's only a guide, it's only a guide, it's only ...

Hubcap

As you may know or may not know, PSA "insurance" and USPS shipping charges are based on the card value in PSA 8 condition. If SMR prices rise to market value levels, the "insurance" and USPS shipping charges would escalate dramatically. That might deter submissions.

My problem is that the USPS Postmaster confirmed that PSA pays a flat rate of $8 per parcel regardless of the size, and there is no insurance on the parcel. The package is registered though. Is this true?

NickM

Pricing on high grades that don't exist is ridiculous. A N/A listing should be made in those cases. The first one of a key card in a grade higher than previously known will normally beat all estimates, as long as there are 2 or more deep-pocketed collectors who could use it.

Nick

purelyPSA

Hubcap - If you heard it from the postmaster, I'd guess it is. If not...

1967topps

I don't think they make any effort to compare population stats for baseball COMMONS, instead
all commons in a series tend to get the same price. Like your example of having the only 9,
lets see if anything happens with the [sorry if y'all are tired of hearing about this one,
I'm almost done ] 1967 Duke Sims PSA 9 1/1 that I got from a wax pack and sold for 350
to that guy that wins all the 1967 PSA 9's (that I need, anyway). We'll see if the SMR for it
changes from $60 to something else - probably not - as pointed out by other readers, PSA
really doesn't have time to do this - and I agree there are more important things to do that
research populations/ebay prices of commons, especially given the large # of sets they calculate
SMRs for.

1967topps

OK the last 2 1967 Mickey Mantle #150 PSA9's sold for within a few dollars of each other on
ebay, $17xx each . I realize PSA doesn't have time to track all auctions but lets see if there's any
effect on one of the most valuable cards in this set?

VintageVikes

(I'd like to see it become a quarterly.)

That's about all I receive as it is. Never received a Feb or March issue.

miami3

Nice post good riddance189!

I agree with you that the SMR is often way off when it comes to current market time pricing but I feel that it would be next to impossible for PSA to keep up with the times unless they started some type of a real time price format similar to the stock market.

The SMR just like Beckett should be used as a guide only and only reflects the authors opinion of what the cards should sell for.

Just to show you how crazy the prices are on ebay, I recently sold off three 1959 topps cards that are considered low pops (12 or lower) on ebay. The cards had SMR's in the $23-35.00 range, but all three sold for over $400.00 each!!! I also know many of you have seen this happen with your particular sets that you are either buying or selling.

I think that if someone could come up with a "real time" price index based on closed ebay prices and major auctions, they will hit a home run with collectors and could make big bucks selling online subscriptions.

Regards,

Jim

WinPitcher

a 1/1 card that sees movement either up or down i would think would be because the cards in grades under it move. example if the 1/1 you speak of is in psa 9 and the 15 psa 8 move upward it stands to reason that the 1/1 9 moves up as well. if the cards in 8 move downward then the 1/1 in 9 can remain stable or go down as well, and quite possibly move forward while the 8z move down. The 7z in the group also influence the prices.

CON40

Don't forget that player demand also has an impact... if demand for a player's early cards increases (like Pujols RCs), most likely a trickle down effect will positively impact later cards. And the reverse is true of course! When demand for a player's early cards softens (like Jeter's 93 SP) then most likely all his cards will see a decrease. Their are exceptions due to set demand, scarcity, condition sensitivity, etc., but I think this plays a role.