The $1000 prospect challenge

KallMaloneSay

Alright, us prospect collectors have been called out to spend a hypothetical $1000 on prospects right now and see what they will be at in a few months/years/etc. So let's stop talking about it and just do it. I'll try not to give away all my sleepers, because every time I mention on this board who I'm picking up, they start to sell for 30% more on ebay the next day and I can't get them cheap enough (note to self: use the inverse of this method and rather than building up the guys you are buying, build up the guys you are about to sell). So I'll just use the list that I did on January 29th that I shared with ya'll. I'd probably update it a little, but it's relatively close.

Michael Hinckley
Adam Wainwright
Guillermo Quiroz
Dustin McGowan
Aaron Hill
Jamie D'Antona
Jeff Mathis
Jo Jo Reyes
JJ Hardy
David DeJesus

I'll check on ebay when I got time later, but I'll just go with an even $100 investment on each player. Wainwright, Quiroz, Mathis, and Hardy are selling for more now than when I made this little list for my good buddy Roach on January 29th, but I'll stick with them at current prices. I'll announce my quantities and prices paid a little later or tommorrow when I get a chance, lots of card shop paperwork to cut through right now. Let's have some fun boys, Jason

TheRoach

<< <i>Alright, us prospect collectors have been called out to spend a hypothetical $1000 on prospects right now and see what they will be at in a few months/years/etc. So let's stop talking about it and just do it. I'll try not to give away all my sleepers, because every time I mention on this board who I'm picking up, they start to sell for 30% more on ebay the next day and I can't get them cheap enough (note to self: use the inverse of this method and rather than building up the guys you are buying, build up the guys you are about to sell). So I'll just use the list that I did on January 29th that I shared with ya'll. I'd probably update it a little, but it's relatively close.

Michael Hinckley
Adam Wainwright
Guillermo Quiroz
Dustin McGowan
Aaron Hill
Jamie D'Antona
Jeff Mathis
Jo Jo Reyes
JJ Hardy
David DeJesus

I'll check on ebay when I got time later, but I'll just go with an even $100 investment on each player. Wainwright, Quiroz, Mathis, and Hardy are selling for more now than when I made this little list for my good buddy Roach on January 29th, but I'll stick with them at current prices. I'll announce my quantities and prices paid a little later or tommorrow when I get a chance, lots of card shop paperwork to cut through right now. Let's have some fun boys, Jason >>




The only guy I will agree with here is Quiroz. I like him a ton and think he will completely overshadow Rios if they both are playing the full season. You can get 10x the amount of Quiroz Bowman Chrome rookies, or Leaf Certified Auto/400 for what you will pay for one, WAY OVERPRICED Alexis Rios 2002 Elite rookie these days. What a joke. I don't care if it's the guys only rookie card and it's numbered out of 1,000, the guy hasn't seen a Major League pitcher yet.

As for the other guys you listed, I checked most of them on Ebay and their rookie cards are very cheap right now. Some had a few hours left to go and they didn't have a bid at 99 cents. Maybe that's a good thing? Anyway, if you are talking about spending $100 on one of these guys and then you'll post a profit when they go from $2 a card to $4 a card, well then I guess you will win. I don't see the fun in tying up a ton of my $$$ for several months on some guys that are a year or more away just so one day I can make $1 profit a card. The list of examples of guys that came out booking at $2 or so and then jumped to $20 or more is not too big.

I'll call anyone a fool right now that is buying an Alexis Rios '02 Elite, '02 Adam Laroche '02 Elite, or a 2002 Prince Fielder Prospect Premieres Auto RC at their current prices, for investment purposes. The smart people are the ones cashing in on them. They are laughing all the way to the bank. I see Laroche '02 Elite 5 card lots going off at like $75 a card. I don't agree with Beckett, but they still have him at $30. I am quite sure that they will catch up with him next month, but then we are close to the season opener. If he starts out slow, watch those cards nose dive. He will have to hit 10 homers in his first week just to catch up to the value that most people are paying right now.

I hear so many people looking for advice from certain collectors here. What makes anyone, even myself, so reliable when it comes to this matter? I could tell everyone in this room that I bought 15 '01 Bowman Chrome Pujols when they were at $100 a piece and then I sold them at $1,000 a piece last month. What proof, right? I have always said that their was no sure fire way of investing, but (thankfully) I have never had the big money to throw at these current, "hot" rookies like Rios and Laroche, and I probably wouldn't invest that way if I did. Way too much of a gamble.

Jason - If you were offered (8) '02 Alexis Rios Elite RC or (450) or so '03 Bowman Chrome Guillermo Quiroz RC right now with the stipulation that you could only sell them 6 months from now for your profit ( if any ), which pkg would you take? Both pkgs would cost you about the same amount of money. You could actually get more Quiroz for the same $$$$ actually.

Or how about (100) '02 Bowman Chrome Jason Stokes? He's probably not ready until late in the year or next year, but he is one hell of a prospect that could be had for about $10 a pop. Rios had one decent year last year and everyone jumped on the bandwagon. Laroche is almost 25 years old already and he is just pumped up because he is guaranteed the 1B job in Atlanta. They say he doesn't have much power. How exciting!!

I will be the first to post on this board if either of those 2 guys light it up this year and those Elite rookies get up to $400 a pop or so. But I will also be watching to see how many people lose about $300-$500 easily if those guys choke it up early. Currently, the amount to profit on either of these guys ( at their current prices ) is far less than the amont you can lose. Spend $160 on a Rios now and maybe make $20 or so if he takes off. Or, if he stinks it up, you will see his cards going off at $60 a pop because there will be so many listed and everyone will be selling them off. Keep that in mind.

Buy low. Sell high. Some people have seemed to forget this rule. Look at the current prices of Rios and Laroche and you will see what I mean. $160 for a Rios and the freakin' card isn't even autographed!! Geez. When the bottom falls out on these guys and lots of people lose their a$$es, you can say that I warned you.

If you are ever interested in what I collect and think that I am a hypocrite, do a search under my Ebay name - Pedroks20 - and see what I have been buying. I can't guarantee a profit down the road like others do, but I can tell you that my investments in the players I collect is usually minimal. I get great cards for $2 that book at $10. If the guy makes it, they will be selling for $30-$50 a piece. I don't spend thousands of $$$$ religiously on millions of prospects and then conveniently tell you what profits I made on the ones that hit. You can check my "prospects" on Ebay under my name.

Jason, do you buy under the same account as you sell? I know that kind of stuff could be personal to some, but the info is free for all to look at if you know the Ebay name. I would be interested to see how much you buy each month and what exactly you buy. Even if the few people went on to buy the same card as you, it wouldn't drive them up like you say. If the guy is hot, he's going to move up on his own anyway. Share your purchases with everyone. If it's personal, I understand. I just think that so many people talk about what prices they got their cards for so I thought it would be good to see that.



TheRoach

BowChromeProspects

I'm bored so I'm gonna make my $$Makers list from Bowman Chrome Draft exclusively...
(In no special order...)

Matt Cain
Matt Whitney
Justin Jones
DELWYN Young
Greinke (High now...but I see a definate upside)
CJ Lewis (reminds me of Upton a ton)
Clint Everts
Greg Miller (kinda expensive, but I see a huge upside)


I'd have more then fun with $1000 shopping spree on these players...