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CAN WE FIGURE OUT THE MARKET VALUE SLABBED BY THE BIG THREE

CAN WE FIGURE OUT THE MARKET VALUE SLABBED BY THE BIG THREE

Someone posted some figures a week or so ago about how many coins PCGS, NGC, and ANACS were slabbing each month. The last report I received from NGC said they were doing 45,000 per month, sound right? What about PCGS and ANACS? So here is the question. What would you estimate the total market value is of the coins slabbed each month by only these three companies?

If we can make some general assumptions perhaps we can get close to a number.
First lets set a minimum value that most people would use in order to submit a coin for slabbing. I know that many times people with out to much knowledge send coins in, and then there are the collectors that just want their whole collection slabbed, even if they have a few cheap coins, but we need a general dollar bottom number.

Then what can we use as a middle dollar number, and a high end dollar number so we can come up with an average, and how much weight should we give to each category.
Perhaps we should have 20 to 5 for inexpensive coins to say middle priced coins, and 5 to 1 for middle priced coins to high end coins.
What dollar values should we assign to each category?

Who has a formula?

Comments

  • RussRuss Posts: 48,514 ✭✭✭


    << <i>The last report I received from NGC said they were doing 45,000 per month >>



    If that's accurate, it is less than half of what NGC claimed they were grading in a thread over at sleepy hollow.

    Russ, NCNE
  • GOLDSAINTGOLDSAINT Posts: 2,148
    Hey Russ,

    I got this off their website. I don't know how old it is ?

    "Numismatic Guaranty Corporation of America
    http://www.ngccoin.com
    The leading grading company in rare coins, currently certifying over 45,000 coins per month. "
  • dorkkarldorkkarl Posts: 12,691 ✭✭✭


    << <i>CAN WE FIGURE OUT THE MARKET VALUE SLABBED BY THE BIG THREE >>

    no.

    even if you could, why would you want to?

    K S
  • GOLDSAINTGOLDSAINT Posts: 2,148
    Here is why this might be a valuable tool. Many long time collectors, like myself, have decided that having their coins slabbed would be of great benefit if they decided to sell, to say nothing of protecting their coins, and having them professionally graded. Unlike inside this forum, out in the real World the majority of dealers, and coin buyers believe that a coin slabbed by one of these three companies means that the grade of the coin is fixed in stone, and leaves little room for discussion. Unless there are those here that believe that there is an endless supply of coins in the U.S. then we must hit a point where the majority of coins that are worth slabbing have been slabbed.
    If we come up with our best guess estimate of what we think a dollar amount might be then we would at least have this estimate to determine what dollar amount might be available to come into the market each month as the baby boom group readies to sell assets and retire.
    Since the trend is to have more collections slabbed, if that trend were to slow down significantly then that could mean two things. One that most collections were now in slabs or two that the market was starting to decline and many collectors with raw coins had decided to wait to see where the market was going.
    McDonalds managers do not keep track of the liquid coke they sell, they keep track of the containers, slabs are containers!
    Since the lead time to have coins slabbed seems to get longer through time with new business, a significant drop in slabbing could be an early warning sign.
    Having an estimate of dollar amounts slabbed each month could also be valuable information as to whether or not the market was expanding.
  • dorkkarldorkkarl Posts: 12,691 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Unlike inside this forum, out in the real World the majority of dealers, and coin buyers believe that a coin slabbed by one of these three companies means that the grade of the coin is fixed in stone, and leaves little room for discussion. >>

    note that it goes both ways, such that coins in slabs don't have the upward mobility that raw coins do.



    << <i>Unless there are those here that believe that there is an endless supply of coins in the U.S. then we must hit a point where the majority of coins that are worth slabbing have been slabbed. >>

    your incorrect. there is indeed an endless supply of coins, from a practical standpoint. realistically, pcgs & ngc are big business only because billions upon billions of moderns are minted each year.



    << <i>If we come up with our best guess estimate of what we think a dollar amount might be then we would at least have this estimate to determine what dollar amount might be available to come into the market each month as the baby boom group readies to sell assets and retire. >>

    therein lies the problem. there's no way to generate a reasonable estimate, since so many coins have been cracked back out.



    << <i>Since the trend is to have more collections slabbed, if that trend were to slow down significantly then that could mean two things. One that most collections were now in slabs or two that the market was starting to decline and many collectors with raw coins had decided to wait to see where the market was going. >>

    again, your assumption is that no body cracks coins OUT. i can tell you w/out a doubt that's a bad assumption.

    K S
  • GOLDSAINTGOLDSAINT Posts: 2,148
    Dorkkarl, I think all of us have a tendency to believe that what we discuss here on this forum is the way things are out there in America. This is just not the case. I know many dealers that never crack a slab and resubmit it. Most dealers unless they have a super coin just dont have any time for this , nor do most collectors. With a current 90 day submittal process for PCGS, one crack out takes 6 months, and that as we all know is a gamble. In addition I dont think most collectors crack coins out to be resubmitted because they buy what they like and are happy with the price they paid and the grade. The people on this forum, and in particular the ones of us that like to talk, and enjoy a good discussion, are the type "A" personalities of the coin World, the ones who's brians are always trying to figure out the angle.
    As far as the millions of new 2004 coins made this year, am I wrong in thinking that most will not be slabbed because of the fact that there are MILLIONS?
  • At what point does it become useless for coins to be graded...If most modern coins of today grade MS69 or PR69 what is the use in having them graded if you know that is all you are going to get from PCGS. Another reason that grading may be useless is the resubmissions the numbers are all wrong by people doing this...unless you know you have an MS70 or a PR70 you might as well forget it.
  • GOLDSAINTGOLDSAINT Posts: 2,148
    dlimb2, I think you are right, most moderns should not be slabbed unless they are special like Frank's 1948 ms 66 Franklin he posted last week.Its not that they are not worth collecting, and my set of Ikes, Franklins and Kennedy's may be worth sending in by my grand children, who know's. I also think many moderns are slabbed looking for the "brass ring" MS 70 coins. Many Morgans are in the same catagory. I have been buying common date slabbed Morgans that were ms 62's and 63's for $23 to $33 dollars slabbed just to pass them on to the family. Obviously millions of dollars are spent each year slabbing moderns that are worth very little above the slab cost.
    Perhaps my approach to this is wrong. These three companies do seperate out moderns from the balance of their other slabbing, I wonder if they would give us those figures seperatly?

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