Who the heck is Ian Stewart, and did anyone know who he is before Beckett mentioned his name?

TheRoach

I came across some of this guys cards selling on Ebay and they are totally inflated at this point. No room for profit if you are paying what I see them going for now. It's absurd. The time to get these was about 1-2 months ago. Not right after Beckettt says goods things about him. His '03 Prospect Premieres Auto is going for like $60-$70 a pop.

Is the guy even playing this year? I tell you what, I would never dump that kind of $$$ on a player that isn't guaranteed a spot on the field this year. Once the season starts and the guy doesn't play, I will pick them up for half of what they are selling for now. Isn't this a common rule that everybody should know?

I guess I wouldn't mine having about 10 of these right about now. I'd cash in on the people paying big $$$ for "the hype" that I am not so sure is even there? If Beckett listed a set for the first time in the newest Baseball issue and they picked one random rookie to price at $50, that alone would send thousands scrounging for these rookies at high, overinflated prices. That's obviously what has happened here with Ian Stewart. Good prospect? Not sure. I haven't looked him up in the Baseball America Prospect sections yet. I will assume he has potential though. Worthy of a $60 price tag right now? I doubt it.

Same goes for alot of the players in this year's Bowman Chrome set. The auto rookies of course. I looked up half of the guys that were selling for $40-$60 a pop and they are either 24 years old now or someone who is projected to hit 10 homers or less when they get the call. People - Unless they can bring a batting title or close to it up to the Major League level when they get the call, don't spend a penny on any of these "prospects" that don't have power or aren't expected to develop any. You're wasting your $$$ on these cards just because they are A) Autographed, and Bowman Chrome. Power and homers are the only thing that pays with rookies. I say this only if you are collecting any of these cards for investing purposes of course. If you are collecting them for any other reason, more power to ya.

Before you jump on the rookie hype that Beckett gives you, just look up the future of the guy you are about to invest $50 into before you spend that kind of $$. If you don't, you will be looking at a pile of Nick Markakis and Xavier Paul rookies one day wishing you had that pile of $$$ you invested into them back.

Again, just my personal opinion. I would enjoy some feedback from others. Thanks!



TheRoach

kuhlmann

i had some of his auto's did pretty well on them about 4 moths ago. plays for the royals i think in there farm.

jaybyrd

I too used to speculate, about fifteen years ago. I still have a bunch of Tracy Jones and Jay Bell rookies. But that was when you could purchase for 10 cents a card.

When you are talking about that much money for someone that hasn't even played, I would stay away. There always seems to be a lot of hype surrounding the next crop of rookies. But 98 % of the time they can be had for a lot less if you can just be patient. Even the players that turn out to be good pros usually see a downturn in their prices after they have been in the league for a couple of years.

Wasn't Ian Stewart the guy that pinned the song 'Year of the Cat'?

Stone193

Jaybyrd
We've had this speculation talk before but what about ROY's - Jerome Walton, Joe Charboneau, Alvin Davis, Gregg Olson, Pat Listach just to name a few that I have a bunch of collecting worm holes somewhere in the closet!!!!
Mike

ctsoxfan

<< <i>Wasn't Ian Stewart the guy that pinned the song 'Year of the Cat'? >>



Al Stewart.

Stone193

<< <i> Not right after Beckettt says goods things about him. >>


Doesn't that go right to the heart of the problem with a price-guide company branching into too many areas that can leave people wondering if there is something akin to insider trading or touting in order to "boost" the value in something to say nothing of increasing the amount of people jamming RC's into the mail pouch of Beckett grading? Just sort of a rhetorical question and not an indictment of Beckett - don't really know anything about their total operation.
Mike

jaybyrd

I know - it is getting late in Georgia and that was just my attempt at a small joke.

jaybyrd

I agree with Stone, that does seem like a conflict of interest.

RobE

Was he in the Pepsi softball tournament today?

Jenny Finch killed Pujols and Piazza today.
They were embarassed by her and Albert tipped his hat in amazement.

Jaypers

It ain't just Stewart whose cards are ridiculously inflated. For other references, see: Adam LaRoche and Alexis Rios. Each has only 1 RC- the 2002 Elite Extra Edition, with Turn of the Century DieCuts parallels. Now THOSE are overhyped like crazy.

KallMaloneSay

Actually the market has determined that these guys are selling at these levels, Beckett is just following their prices (and almost correctly, Beckett actually has them underpriced a little). Stewart was a first round pick for the Rockies who hit like .370 with decent power in his Rookie Ball debut and is only 18 years old. Rios' name is everywhere in Baseball America, Sports Weekly, Fantasy Insider, etc. as he won the AA Eastern League batting title last year with a .352 avg and tore up one of the Hispanic Winter Leagues (against many Major League Pitchers) and is compared to the next Dave Winfield. LaRoche is probably overpriced as he does relatively well in the minors, which usually equates to average numbers in the majors, although the Braves starting 1B job is his to lose. Yes, most prospects fall on their face and are overhyped, but don't forget that Mickey Mantle was one of these wonderkind's in 1951 who fell flat on his face as a rookie and was sent back to the minors and considered a waste of the Yankees money. Last I checked that Mantle kid did alright when he was all done playing baseball.

You'll be paying for the hype, but if you buy wisely and hit correctly then you could have the steal of the centruy if you buy enough of the right guy. I'd advise to buy Jeremy Reed, but who knows, I don't have a functioning crystal ball. Sorry guys, but there is no big Beckett conspiracy here, they are just going off of what morons like us are paying for these cards, hoping we'll find the next Mantle or Pujols. Jason

Stone193

Jason
You are correct - I was just messin around - don't want to start another "conspiracy theory" movie here. But, I do have a question that I am only trying to recollect: wasn't it Beckett's philosphy and policy that they wanted to stay out of advertising and business ventures that COULD in any way allude to the possibility of conflict of interest. And, do you think they have strayed from that concept due to the escalating costs of operation and competition for their priceguide service? Or is it just plain good business to diversify and let everyone get over it.
Mike

Boopotts

Two words: Gregg Jeffries.

Anyone who spends fifty bucks on the RC of a player who hasn't seen a major league pitch deserves what's coming to them. If someone did a study, they'd see that the price of RC's across the board trends downward, at every date post-release. That is, they trend downward at 30 days post-release, 60 days, three years, etc. etc.


That's why I crack up every time I hear about someone buying this stuff as an 'investment'. Who ever heard of 'investing' in something that's expected to lose value? Ridiculous.

magellan

In the late 80's , we used to sell at card shows right around the time the RC craze was going strong. I still have 100's of cards of guys like Tracy Jones (& some of him too jaybyrd) . The one thing I never did was pay big bucks for them . I can remember being disgusted by what Gregg Jeffries cards were going for before he ever played in the majors. Eventually the insert card chasing and huge number of sets produced every year made us (partner & I) decide to stop doing shows. All of the focus had gone from collecting to rolling the dice on the newest hot card. Just had to throw in my 2 cents here.

Dave

helionaut

Once you sell a card, don't worry about how much it's worth. The key to investing wisely is buying AND selling, not buying and buying, which is where most "investors" lose track. I buy with the idea to flip within a year, usually, and much less in most cases. This is not long-term stuff. Why would I care what it's worth in 3 years? Not every card gets Alexis Rios-type hot, nor do they have to (though it is nice when they do). If you buy a handful of cards of a guy you like for a couple bucks each and a year later they're going for $10+ each, and do that a few times a year, you are basically subsidizing your own hobby.

I don't buy cards when they reach a certain price, sometimes missing out on a larger boat, but I'm not that much of a gambler. I first noticed Rios last fall when his Elite was going for about $40-50, and decided that was too much and stayed away. However, I'm sure I wouldn't have bought Nolan Ryan rookies when they were $200, either, and look where they went. I made that mistake by not doing my research. I didn't read how he was being spotlighted by hobby sport mags and, more crucially, I didn't figure out he only has the one RC. I think I thought he was in all the Donruss/Fleer/UD products like so many guys are.

BTW, yes, I heard of Ian Stewart when reading draft reports. It didn't stick, though, so I was surprised by how well his PP auto is selling. I keep understimating those XRCs. Still kicking myself for not buying that 2001 PP Prior auto for $60 at that show that time.

TheRoach

I couldn't agree more Boopots. In all reality, I wouldn't have the money to pay for many of these at the going rate anyway, but even if I did, I would never pay that much for a guy that "has potential". Each year there is 20-30 guys that have potential. Only few make it if any. Just think about it, each year we pretty much see the same guys on each team give or take a new addition here or there. Guys like Jeff Bagwell, Ivan Rodriguez, Troy Glaus, gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa, Bernie Willliams, Luis Gonzalez, Juan Gonzalez, Jim Thome, Frank Thomas, Roberto Alomar, Griffey Jr, javy Lopez, Andruw Jones, Derek Jeter, etc... have been playing their positions for years now. To take their spot you better be damn good.

My point is that there is limited room on alot of these teams. I will say that Ian Stewart may have a better chance to play 3B in Colorado then most places, but he is still a gamble to invest in now considering that he will not be ready until at least 2006 they are saying. Do you really think that this guys cards will hold their current selling price for this long? Why buy high and hope this guy makes it so you can recoup some of your investment? Why not just wait a year and buy them for around $20 ( if that ) and then hope he gets back up to the $60 selling price he is at now.



TheRoach

KallMaloneSay

Wow, most of you guys are absolute pessemists when it comes to prospect collecting, ya'll must've got in on the wrong players at the wrong times. As for Stewart hitting $20 at the end of the year, very, very unlikely unless he does a faceplant. I beleive the opposite to at some point the Prospect Premieres AUTO will dry up to only one to three per month are on ebay. Look at the Mauer Bowman Chrome AUTO, it came out booking at $60 and was selling for about $40 on ebay for the first few months. After a year it was still booking at $60, but was now selling for $60 or so after shipping. It now is booking at $100 and a centered raw one will usually sell right around $100. Same goes for the Prince Fielder Prospect Premieres AUTO. It came out at $50 and was selling $30 on ebay, then stayed the same but went up to $50 on ebay, and now it books $125 and I haven't checked lately, but it's still probably going for nearly $100 online.

Boopotts

Jason-

As I've said before, I think you're a real asset to these boards, and I invariably enjoy reading your posts.

But I have to disagree with you here. Bear in mind, the analysis one presents for 'investing' in RC's on these boards almost always occurs post-mordem' i.e, some guy gets hot, and everyone piles on, slapping themselves on the back for having got in on the ground floor. What's missed in all this is the dozens of guys every years who don't make any kind of splash whatsoever.

This is just bad analysis. The fact is that all RC's, and all subsets of RC (for example, 'real hot' cards, 'sleepers', etc.) trend downward. That's irrefutable. Now a guy can, conceivably, make money in a market trending downwards IF he's real, real good at sorting the wheat from the chaff. But in a market that trends as viciously downward as the RC market, I submit that it's virtually impossible to realize a profit.

To that end, I offer the following challenge: let's let everyone take 1000 'virtual' dollars and buy RC's from now until opening day. We can use whatever price guide we want, although something like low Beckett would probably be the best. From now until October 31, a guy can sell those cards at anytime, so long as he 'sells' using the current edition of the same price guide which he used to determine his 'buy' price. If over 15% of the participants in this challenge can realize any kind of profit at the end of the season I'll be stunned. And, I'll publicly recant on these boards, and admit outright that certain guys who do their homework can make money by speculating.

If this interests anyone, let me know. Maybe we can start a thread doing this, or perhaps we'll designate someone to keep track of the 'buys' and 'sells'.

TheRoach

That's right BooPotts. I'll even do one better than that. I will openly admit shame with myself if anyone who is currently paying $125 or more for the Alexis Rios Elite rookies can show me a sale that resulted in a decent profit starting April 1st and ending October 1st.

Anyone paying that kind of $$$ for the Alexis Rios rookies right now is going to be praying that he comes out banging home runs! I know there is "only 1,000", but every card has a ceiling for profit, and this guy's card hit that long ago.

I remember coming onto these boards awhile back and asked numerous people if they were a COLLECTOR or an INVESTOR. I was surprised how many people responded with "COLLECTOR". The way I have been hearing it, most of the regulars here are investors, hands down. There isn't one collector that I know that would shell out tons of $$$$ on these "prospects" without hoping for some kind of quick profit down the road. Who can afford to tie up $1000 on 7-8 Alexis Rios rookies and then wait at least 2-3 years for the guy to come full bloom?

It's not pessimism Jason, I love "investing" in prospects more than you know. I really do. I have been collecting for over 15 years now and have enjoyed every minute of it. I am just trying to make sense of the whole rookie binge. I've sia dthis before - if you pump $40-$60 into 15 different players from this years Bowman Chrome, how many of those guys are actually going to make you any profit. especially when you should be deducting the $$$ you lost out from the ones that didn't pan out for you.

I do agree with you about Laroche. I have read 3-4 different articles about this guy. They do say that he has the job at first locked up. It's his to lose. However, they do day that he has been in the minors for awhile and he won't blow anyone away with his power. Does that justify the hefty pricetags that are on his cards right now? Heck no. Not in my opinion.

I will do a little study myself. I will pretend that I just purchased 5 each of the following:

5 - '02 Elite Alexis Rios for $125 a piece
5 - '02 Elite Adam Laroche for $90 a piece
5 - '03 UD Prospect Premieres Ian Stewart for $60 a piece
5 - '02 UD Prospect Premieres Prince Fielder for $90 a piece


Boy, I just added them up and that's 20 rookies for $1,825 total. I just checked the Laroche and one is going for $83 with 2+ hrs to go. I may even be a bit lower on the Rios, The Stewarts are just about right, and the Fielder's sometimes sell for $100, so I am pretty fair there also.

I will revive this thread on June 1st to report what kind of profit I expect to make if I list all of the rookies I just purchased for $1,825 on Ebay at that moment. I will take the average price that these cards are going off for on that day or close to it. I'd venture to say that after tying up alot of $$$$ for about 3 months, I will be disappointed to find that I will only get back just about $1,000. After I deduct my Ebay and Paypal fees, I will be out even more.

For fun, let's hear your thoughts on what anyone thinks I will get back on the very same lot if I resell them on June 1st after paying $1,825 for them today. i am curious to see how many people think there will be a profit. Just post the dollar amount that you think the lot will sell for on June 1st.


Thanks for your time. As a collector/investor, I really do hope that we all can make the most possible with any of our transactions. Even though my opinion may seem like it attacks the high end investor, that is not my intention. I am just sharing my opinion on this particular topic. I would be lying if I said that I have not lost lots of money in my years of "prospecting". I do feel like I have learned alot from all of those losses though.



TheRoach

TheRoach

FYI - After doing a quick check on the '02 Elite Alexis Rios rookie, I was shocked to see them selling for an average of $150 or so now. Boy, I was way off on that card. I got them for a steal at $125 a piece!



TheRoach

Beachbum

I do not fall in love with my cards anymore...I had a quick one year learning curve with far too many Dontrelle Willis in my closet which is my own fault because I'm too lazy when it comes to listing cards; anyway, I will dump them all over time and I don't expect I can do any worse there.

Then, there are the successes...in fact so good, I regret not making more profit:

1. Every Barry Bonds auto card I could buy last summer ( you were wrong JS ! ) ...average profit 60% plus...14 cards sold
2. Every Barry Bonds PSA 10 / BGS 9.5 Tiffany or '87 Fleer.....doubled my purchase price ( wrong again JS )
3. Sold all my Delmon Young SPX at 15 % profit and same for Weeks...I love them , but PSA grades these cards as "8" and no way I keep cards like that knowing they will "8" them.
4. Bought Edwin Jackson, Andy Marte, Felix Pie, Kenny Lewis in bulk lots and am sitting on a nice investment there.
5. I bought Rios going back 3 months ago at $46 & $48 for my first two......I looked crazy using BIN @ $90 for a LOT of two; Now I own 15 I'm grading & flipping, no love or time lost, but profit all the way.
6. I'm in high on Laroche, but I'm grading and getting out.
7. I'm already working on players in HS from the Team USA Olympic sets like Larish, Clement and have huge #'s of auto cards from both...waiting.
8. I have 10 complete B.C. sets of '03 BCDP as I swore I wasn't buying on the Ebay market like I did with Willis or Harden...now I have the motherlode.

In the end, it is about buying before the Hype takes over because then it is TOO LATE. Buy on investigation and grunge work like subscribing to every rookie prospect magazine...buy before they are known and sell on HYPE. I can kick myself for not squeezing every last penny from a card, but if I made something, thats good enough.

The ONLY trap out there is not the $$$$ into rookies at all...ITS THE BOGUS $$$$ SPENT BREAKING WAX, A FORMER ADDICTION I'VE CHANNELLED INTO ROOKIE SPECULATION.


Stay away from wax garbage and the "illusory" 1/1 DK cards and sink $70 into a Laroche you grade & sell in May for $150.

I learned the hard way....Dontrelle Willis...but then I saw the light...it wasn't the player, but TIMING of the sale. So, don't be afraid to spend, just not at the apex or when its too late.


Michael

P.S. Welcome Jaypers to the "thinking man's Board"......your chrome friend

jaybyrd

Why are Alex Rios card so high? HYPE HYPE HYPE I don't know a lot about this guy, but isn't he an infielder with not a whole lot of pop in his bat. If he doesn't hit homeruns investing in his cards will probably be a losing proposition.

Like I said I don't know a lot about this guy. Correct if I am wrong.

Beachbum

JayBryd...the best analogy is the stock market....

Do all the stocks selling high actually have the numbers behind them to warrant their inflated prices??? NO !

But, hype drives up value. Unless, you're talking about staganant vintage which trades within a narrow margin day in and day out ( most of the guys are dead and their #'s are final )...yawn...then HYPE is the currency in all sport and Hollywood too.

If reality catches up with the Hype like Lebron, you can hold, otherwise, the smart people know after the hype is when you fold !

You don't want to be the last guy at the end of a day in a losing market ( see the last scene in "Trading Places " )...you want to be the one who bought early and sold higher, not highest ! Don't bemoan the system, use it to your advantage !

jaybyrd

Beachbum - I haven't really messed with new cards for quite a while. When I was speculating (fifteen years ago) I held on to the cards hoping they would be stars. I guess if you are just hoping to hold onto long enough to turn a profit it makes more sense.

Boopotts

Beachbum-

You really should take my 'challenge', and spend a fictional 1000 dollars on RC's. If you can prove my hypothesis wrong, more power to you.

Beachbum

I'm happy to "boopotts".

Can I partner up with Roach or KALLMALONE?

Stone193

Beachbum
No fair - ya gotta keep it honest and pair up with some deadweight like......me! A vintage - born again tryin to re-learn modern collector - how have you been - seems like a thousand years ago that you helped me out to integrate. Just messin' - I think you should take that Pepsi challenge tho.
Mike

helionaut

I think the anti-RC investment camp is missing the meaning of investment. The time to invest in Alexis Rios is not now that his RC is $150 or whatever, it was last fall when it was $40. Don't let the fact that you consider $150 a ridiculous price for an RC of someone yet to play in the majors. Just accept that people will pay it and let them. Whether the player has any actual success or not is irrelevant. Whether you would pay it is irrelevant. Investment is playing off the part of human nature that wants to own the hot thing now. The off-season is great for this because everyone starts picking up on who had a good year in the minors, end-of-year rookie products come out and speculation heats up. No one can have a slump when they aren't playing, so optimism builds. This happens with a handful of players every year. If you can develop an eye for spotting what that is before most other people, you can be successful.

To be more specific in regards to the topic of this thread, the time to invest in Ian Stewart's UDPP card is probably passing for now. The $100 mark seems to be the top for most unproven rookies, especially ones so young. However, there is still a little room to grow. Unless he really goes nuts in the minors this year, like performing even better at a higher level of competition, his card will soften. By the end of the year, I'd expect it to be easier to find at somewhat lower levels. This is another point of human nature, impatience. A lot of people paying $75 now will become bored or lose focus. Maybe they expect him to start in the majors and become the next Albert Pujols, whatever. More likely many of them have no specific expectations, they simply know that Beckett says he's a major star rising and his card is HOT, ergo the card must be acquired at any price. Eventually, they start selling them off because he's not Pujols. More patient investors will keep the price up so that it doesn't drop very far, but those willing to wait out his progress could be rewarded. Or not, that's the gamble you take with prospects and buying such high-dollar cards. I prefer getting the cards under $10 and waiting for them to double or triple. That's enough for someone like me with a more limited budget and predisposition for gambling.

Beachbum

As an intelligent a recapitulation of this thread as can be read....good work Helionaut.

You caught the essence of my intent.....some people ARE caught up in 1-3 names and express dismay....of course they will fall; but at the same time there will be a few Matt Chico's and Josh Rainwater's to pick up the slack and the profit opportunity is there all over again.

My amortized Rios investment over 15 cards is $ 100 even. I am selling all but 2-3 after they all come back from PSA.

Nothing will happen in the intervening two weeks to change the fact I will profit on these cards. I am not buying them now at $150 per.

However, there are more enough opportunities such as the names I mentioned and countless others whose bulk purchse for reasonable dollars can reward the savvy investor/speculator.

Michael

Jaypers

Whoa....this really is one cerebral board, dude. Not used to this at all. I need to rest my brain.

Hiya Mike....hey, since when are you a beach bum? You're in NY aren't ya? Are they growing palm trees there now?

Anyway, I'll just add my 2 cents. I've learned that timing definitely counts when unloading rookies or, in my case, rare rookie parallels. As in Gold Refractors. I had 22 of 'em end last night with the hopes they'd approach prices realized by DrCards. No such luck.

My theory is that you really have to wait until 1) a player is scorching hot and/or 2) the product in question is drier than the Sahara before listing it.

I was impatient. And I lost money on most of the cards I listed.

Ok, now if you'll excuse me I need to go have a good cry in the corner. :

Rainman

i'm a collector/gambler/investor...and yes, i think you can balance all 3, assuming you prioritize/realize your limits. i missed the 'ian stewart' train, and the 'prince fielder' train, and many other trains lately b/c i've had other priorities/don't need the 'thrill' i once found in day trading stocks. while i was successful as a daytrader, honestly, it took far more time than i felt it should...same w/cards. i can't and don't scan the message boards/ebay/beckett/baseball america/etc. 24/7, and while it likely costs me $ in 'flipping' the latest Alexis Rios, it saves me $ not spent on chasing those who were hyped yet don't produce.

something i haven't seen addressed is that RCs can be speculated on outside of the "beckett mentioned joe blow this week" timeframe. when players switch teams, approach or reach a milestone, come up out of the minors, etc., their rcs usually rise. same thing happens when the players 'fall off the radar' somewhat. examples include greg maddux and rafael palmeiro, two of my lifetime favorite players. a year ago, you could pick up psa 10s of these guys' rcs for <$50-100, including some of their most rare rcs (tiffanys, donruss). those same cards are now selling for 100-150+. sure it wasn't a "quick thrill" investment, but it's paid off rather nicely for me and also allowed me to pick up psa 10s of cards i had long wanted.

rather than rehash the 'modern v. vintage' debate or engage in an "investor v. collector" debate, i think the important thing is perspective. some of us are lifelong gamblers who are more comfortable w/risk (knowing that we can lose all our $). some of us are vintage only collectors/investors. some of us are a mix of collectors/gamblers/investors. for those who do invest, all i can suggest is "set your limits" and remember the warning "don't catch a falling knife." if you've made a nice profit, congratulations. consider taking some of it off the table if you're not as comfortable holding the cards. and most of all, remember what got you into cards in the first place (or should have): love of the HOBBY and GAME. to this day, i get a kick pulling out the sets i put together by hand. sure the cards aren't as flashy (there were no #d, game used, auto'ed, refractors, xfractors, razzle dazzle em) as today's cards (don't get me wrong, I love bowman chrome), but in their own way, the cards retain a certain elegance/reminder of simpler times.

Beachbum

Hey Jaypers....

You should have spammed your auctions or at least let me know and I would have been taking a look see!!

You should link your auctions in your sig line at BGS as you see I do.

Yes, welcome to what is definitely a thinking man's board ! This is not to take anything away from the BGS people we know and love, but this board is uniformly more coherent and has more serious collectors. You will not find as many kids around either.

"Beachbum" reflects the fact that my idea of Paradise is reflected in the beauty and serenity of a Palm Tree slowly listing in a tropical breeze. Lacking that, a good box of Bowman Chrome will do.....


Michael

Jaypers

Guess what Mike- I DID have a link to my auctions directly underneath my name in my sig line! Ask anyone! Just took it down after they ended. So you have NO excuse for not bidding, sir! So there!

Beachbum

Jaypers....I'm sorry I missed them....LMK if something didn't sell or you have other Gold chrome.

E-mail me so I can save you listing fees.

Michael

Boopotts

The argument isn't that RC speculating is a bad idea because people shouldn't spend 150$ on a baseball card. The argument is that RC speculating is a bad idea because you are putting money in a market that trends sharply downward.

The thing is this: you can't point to the cards that have gone up in value, and use this as evidence that 'money can be made', since while this is technically true it's also misleading. The larger, and more pertinent question, is this: can somebody find enough 'hits' to compensate for the 'misses?' If you assume that a card has bottomed out when it become worthless (or, say, worth a negligable sum, say a dollar or so), then the number of cards in your portfolio that double in value must be greater than the number the bottom out. Given that the number of cards which will bottom out probably outnumber those which will double in price by AT LEAST a 2/1 margin, I submit that it's impossible, over time, to pick 66% 'winners' (and realize that the 2-1 ratio offered here is very conservative; a more realistic ratio would probably be something along the lines of 6:1, or maybe more).

helionaut

Uh, no. You can't use the "market trends sharply downward" argument since that's untrue. Some go up, then they go down over some amount of time, usually 6-12 months or more. Not what I consider sharp. Barring some Ankielian or Toe Nashian problem, some stay up for years, some have yet to come down. And anyway, like I said before, you are supposed to sell the cards before they drop in value. Otherwise you don't get your money back. After that, who cares? I agree with you that if you were to track the prices of every rookie card, nearly all of them would be worth less at some arbitrary point in the distant future than they are when they first come out. And if you were to invest your money by spreading it around on every card of every prospect that comes up, that's the surest way to fail. I'd rather pay $10 for one card I'm sure of than $1 each on 10 guys I have no idea about. That's why you need to do research, learn the market trends, and don't be afraid to sell when there is a profit to be made, even if it's smaller than you think it should be.

It's not like the stock market where a thousand things can impact a stock price, and the conventional wisdom is to hold stocks for the long-term. The market for cards is not that complex. Unlike stocks, which usually pay dividends and provide a return on your investment without selling off your stake, cards are get in/get out. Nor is it like a mutual fund that spreads investment over a wide range of things, diversification being a hedge against drops in any one area. I accumulate a position in one guy, wait a while for other people to catch up, and sell.

But you're right, there have been some misses. In my closet (in my house for which a significant part of the down payment was made by investing in cards) I've got a small box of duds and bad timing jobs that I probably paid $125 total for over the course of years. But in my defense, most of them came from a time when I was not too shrewd about the market and was always optimistic about a player's continued improvement (sell when the next book comes out) or a player's rebound (wait till next year).

If you were to total up all the money I've ever spent on cards and how much I've made back by selling, I'd be far in the red, as would all of us. But in the segment of my collection that is specifically an investment, I've done quite well, and my ratio of winners to losers in terms of dollars I'd say is not less than 15:1.

NickM

Boopotts - you are assuming that it is random as to which cards will be winners and losers in the long term. Intelligent analysis of players in the minors (and even before they are drafted) can help predict which players are likely to become successful and have large gains in card prices.

Nick