Beckett Pricing vs. PSA Supply/Demand
scottsusor
Posts: 1,210
In another thread, jaybyrd said:
"See where I'm going with this. The cards purchased later in the year were kept in better condition. Anyone think this theory has any validity."
And Virtualizard responded:
"Absolutely! I don't think this is necessarily a "theory", I believe it to be fact. In the set that I am most familiar with - 1970 Topps baseball - I can tell you that I have purchased bulk lots through various sources, complete sets, singles, etc., and the cards in the best condition are overwhelmingly from the final series. This can be seen in the POP Report as well. When I was collecting the set in PSA 8/9, the 9s from the 7th series would generally sell for little, if they even ended with a bid. Just look at some of the sets on the registry - you will see many that are loaded with PSA 9s near the end of the set, while the lower numbered cards are mostly 8s with a few 9s here and there. Sort of contradicts Beckett's pricing of high #s, huh?"
Gentlemen, in my humble opinion, it isn't really a contradiction, its apples and oranges. Yes, its a fact that you'll find a higher percentage of higher grade cards as you go up in series numbers because they had less time in the hands of their buyers (usually kids, but not always) before being stowed away somewhere. BUT, keep in mind that Beckett's guide prices are based on total number of raw cards produced/distributed to the general population in that year.
Professional card grading sort of evens out the playing field but the graded card population (and consequential pricing) is really a different type of animal. Submitters have traditionally submitted the best condition cards they have for grading. And since the best condition cards, per the above, will tend to be those produced later in each year, we see a preponderance of last series vs. first series cards graded. Also, the submitters have mistakenly been under the impression that raw value will carry over to graded value. And perhaps it did, to a certain degree, in the early days of commons being submitted for grading.
But now we can see the true picture from the graded card side of things. High numbers have no inherently higher value than do low numbers. In fact, especially if Topps really was (as has long been suspected) destroying certain card numbers in an effort to make it harder for kids to find favorite players, all players on their favorite team, and to complete sets -- Then "rarity" shifts radically from the lower number of cards produced/distributed (high numbers) to the cards throughout the sets that really WERE NOT distributed in equal quantities due to factory destruction.
Quite an intricate web that professional card grading has woven here, eh?
Scott
"See where I'm going with this. The cards purchased later in the year were kept in better condition. Anyone think this theory has any validity."
And Virtualizard responded:
"Absolutely! I don't think this is necessarily a "theory", I believe it to be fact. In the set that I am most familiar with - 1970 Topps baseball - I can tell you that I have purchased bulk lots through various sources, complete sets, singles, etc., and the cards in the best condition are overwhelmingly from the final series. This can be seen in the POP Report as well. When I was collecting the set in PSA 8/9, the 9s from the 7th series would generally sell for little, if they even ended with a bid. Just look at some of the sets on the registry - you will see many that are loaded with PSA 9s near the end of the set, while the lower numbered cards are mostly 8s with a few 9s here and there. Sort of contradicts Beckett's pricing of high #s, huh?"
Gentlemen, in my humble opinion, it isn't really a contradiction, its apples and oranges. Yes, its a fact that you'll find a higher percentage of higher grade cards as you go up in series numbers because they had less time in the hands of their buyers (usually kids, but not always) before being stowed away somewhere. BUT, keep in mind that Beckett's guide prices are based on total number of raw cards produced/distributed to the general population in that year.
Professional card grading sort of evens out the playing field but the graded card population (and consequential pricing) is really a different type of animal. Submitters have traditionally submitted the best condition cards they have for grading. And since the best condition cards, per the above, will tend to be those produced later in each year, we see a preponderance of last series vs. first series cards graded. Also, the submitters have mistakenly been under the impression that raw value will carry over to graded value. And perhaps it did, to a certain degree, in the early days of commons being submitted for grading.
But now we can see the true picture from the graded card side of things. High numbers have no inherently higher value than do low numbers. In fact, especially if Topps really was (as has long been suspected) destroying certain card numbers in an effort to make it harder for kids to find favorite players, all players on their favorite team, and to complete sets -- Then "rarity" shifts radically from the lower number of cards produced/distributed (high numbers) to the cards throughout the sets that really WERE NOT distributed in equal quantities due to factory destruction.
Quite an intricate web that professional card grading has woven here, eh?
Scott
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Don't get me started on Beckett's pricing. It is unchanged for commons in over 15 years and really is irrelevant to any intelligent discussion of pricing. They long ago gave up the ghost of keeping up with it.
Almost all final series cards were produced in less quantity (and likely played with less, thus accounting for their relative higher quality) as Topps didn't want to repeat earlier fiascos of not getting their end of the year baseball series product to sellers before the football card season. While there may not be a premium for graded high numbers vis a vis low pop cards, the SMR still reflects a difference by series. The SMR price by series tends to correlate to the Beckett price + the grading fee + a small profit to encourage submissions.
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Believe me, I'm not trying to make the SMR out as totally accurate either. It at least has a clue in what is a much more volatile market than the raw card market. Beckett is so incompetent in it's vintage commons prices that, really, it's not worth the paper it is printed on. As I said, the commons prices have remained the same since the mid 1980's even though the cards are now nearly 25 years older. $1.50 for NM 66's and 71's? $2.00 for 65's? $4.00 for 60 Topps? Stop it, you're killing me.
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