Rookie Card Values and the Hall of Fame

Stone193 · February 26, 2004 12:47PM

Has anyone noticed a trend change - years ago there seemed to be a lot of speculation and increase in value of someones RC with the anticipation of their enshrinement - e.g. Reggie Jackson, Steve Carlton. Does it seem that type of excitement has waned in recent years if you look at the value of the latest selections. I thought of this with respect to the PSA 10 Robinson who is a lock in basketball.
Mike

aro13 · February 26, 2004 12:52PM

stone193 - Most players that go to the Hall of Fame have already seen their card prices rise as most collectors have already bought their cards in anticipation of their election. If a borderline player gets in there would be a rise in their prices and if a vintage player gets elected their prices really rise (see Bid McPhee and Vic Willis)

helionaut · February 26, 2004 12:58PM

Yeah, it was fun watching people "discover" Brett and Yount and Fisk and seeing the price guides raise their cards month after month. But I think it was kind of a fad in the hobby, but that was before everyone had ESPN, the net, ebay, and so many sports news outlets. When collectors got much more of their news and ideas from monthly magazines, it was easy to herd them one direction or another. Now, everyone and everything is analyzed all the time, there are no surprises anymore. Plus, the hobby has matured to a point where so many people are into rookies there isn't as much room for growth as there was. We're left with guys who once were big, then went down, but as they come to the end of their careers people look back and say,"Hey, he's pretty good, he could make Cooperstown/Canton/Springfield/Toronto/Waco...". I'm thinking about Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio, specifically, but I'm sure there are more in all sports.

Stone193 · February 26, 2004 12:58PM

aro13
Do you think that the tremendous decrease in value in RC's like Jackson, Carlton, Brett, Yount, Winfield etc. is an overall "correction" in the sportscard market? At one time, Carton's card was going for like $600, Jackson's was up there, Brett was in the $200 range etc.
Mike

Stone193 · February 26, 2004 1:08PM

helionaut
That's really good - that's what I was alluding to - fads, trends, etc. change and the way we thought in 1990 is far different than today! Does anyone remember how "mystical" it was to hear that so and so was a SPORTSNET seller - we thought - wow, this guy is in the inner sanctum - inside track man etc. So what's next?
Mike

DeutscherGeist · February 26, 2004 5:41PM

There will be some attention given to the rookie card prices of Wade Boggs when he gets in next year, but nothing major since almost everyone thinks he will get in and have bought his cards already. If Mattingly makes it in, his cards will be the ones to sky rocket. Ripken and McGwire will be no surprises, but their cards would be in the spot light again around the time they are inducted--don't expect a big jump though. After the induction ceremony, the card will decrease some since people are not so interested in it anymore--the hype would be gone. If McGwire becomes mayor of St Louis, his name will draw attention once again and may effect his card prices once again. You really never know. I think the fact Mattingly is the Yankees hitting coach will put him in the spot light again and may even become manager if he demonstrates any success in a few years after Torre calls it quits. Think of the publicity surrounding that. Interest in Mattingly will rise and so will his card prices and will force the Writers to reconsider his career.

This is just my take.

raiderscott · February 26, 2004 11:29PM

Reggie's card got all the way up to $700 and 2 months later it started taking the elevator down.

frankhardy · February 27, 2004 12:11AM

Don Mattingly was "The Man" in the mid to late 80's. I really wish he would get more consideration for the Hall of Fame. I remember as a kid wanting to own just one 84 Donruss Mattingly. I never did have the privelage until recently. I am haging on to it just for memory's sake.

Stone193 · February 27, 2004 12:21AM

Frank
were you surprised that Eck got in this year - were others? If he was a surprise and now is spotlighted, will there be a jump in his RC? Or, has that kind of kneejerk reaction to purchasing RC's dropped of the radar screen?
Mike

helionaut · February 27, 2004 2:06AM

The people that collect HOFers will all have to get an Eck, if they hadn't already, and his selection I think will make people realize he was prett good even if he was mostly known as "only" a reliever. Other guys on the bubble would get some kind of bump. I remember around when Bert Blyleven retired, his RC became the target of speculation, and got up to $35 in Beckett, IIRC. Now it's down to about $10. But if he gets in, it'll go back up to $35 at least. Same for the other pitchers in his strata. Gary Carter's election make his 75 RC at least a $40 item in 8, which figures because it used to sell for about $25. Since I always hated him and his perm and his big face and his epitomizing the Mets when they were particularly obnoxious I sub-consciously (or not) have avoided buying his card for my set, I am now forced to pay the HOF premium. If Jim Rice gets in, which could happen, he'll go the same way.

Actually, it would probably be smart to start picking up guys like Rice, Jack Morris, Tommy John, Blyleven, Rich Gossage, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, and other guys who have gotten around 40% of the vote recently. If it worked in the 90s, it should work today. I think someone did a study that showed that only one person has ever gotten more than 50% of the vote in one election and never gotten in eventually. Something like that.

BTW, I agree Mattingly would get a huge bump, but the way things are going, he's not. Since becoming eligible in the 2001 election, his votes have sank from 28.16% to 20.34% to 13.71% to 12.85%. But if he does become a manager and in 2011 we see him helming the $300 million-payroll Yanks to their 7th WS title in 8 years (Phillies stole one), his percentages should be going back up.

aro13 · February 27, 2004 2:12AM

stone193 - When you are referring to the prices for Carlton, Jackson etc., are you stating what cards sold for or what Beckett had them listed for?
I remember looking for Tom Seaver rookies. Beckett had them priced at $800 for near mint (the high column). When the SMR came out PSA 7's were selling for around $400. Now, somebodys prices were a little off. Beckett decided to add a graded card section but how could they justify a graded NM card as selling for $400 but an ungraded NM version as $800. They had to adjust the prices accordingly and eventually the "market" value was corrected.
It is interesting that the rookie cards you point out are mostly 1970 and 1960 Hall of Famers. I would guess that with EBAY and grading more and more of these cards are appearing on the market and the demand has not met the supply and hence the drop in price.
Eckersley is a good example and yet I do not think there was a big spike in his prices. Most people felt he would get in the Hall of Fame eventually but was a borderline first ballot guy. Many people would have already bought his cards that are persuing Hall of Fame sets.
Mattingly, I do not think is a good example of a player whose cards will rise in value. His cards are already priced at Hall of Fame levels for a serious candidate (even though some might argue he is not a serious candidate). Being a Yankee his prices are already somewhat inflated and although there are different circumstances surrounding their card values I think he would fall under the same category as Maris or Munson, two players who already command Hall of Fame prices even though they are not in the Hall.
Finally, the price increase is really only felt (currently) in the real vintage players. When a player like Bid Mcphee makes the Hall of Fame and thousands of Hall of Fame set collectors add him to their list the supply cannot possibly exceed the demand and the prices rise significantly. When a player like Eck makes the Hall the supply of 1976 Topps cards can meet the demand.

aro13 · February 27, 2004 2:15AM

~"Actually, it would probably be smart to start picking up guys like Rice, Jack Morris, Tommy John, Blyleven, Rich Gossage, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, and other guys who have gotten around 40% of the vote recently. If it worked in the 90s, it should work today. I think someone did a study that showed that only one person has ever gotten more than 50% of the vote in one election and never gotten in eventually. Something like that."~

Smart players to add as their prices are so low they could not help but go higher. In Bill James book about the Hall of Fame there is mention of that kind of statistic but with the "new" veterans committee I am not certain it will still have the same results.

Stone193 · February 27, 2004 5:13AM

aro13
I was referring to Beckett which unfortunately was king in the early 90's on pricing - around '92 I believe the Carlton was at $550 and Reggie at $600 (can't find a Beckett); by '94 april guide the Carlton was $450 and the Reggie $500 with a down arrow. Trust Beckett - depends whether you are buying or selling. You guys are right on target - so there's no need to expand on this - I do agree on some of the hopefuls - I have a PSA 8 John collecting dust with raw on all stated - one thing that we may all agree in this climate is - speculating on RC cards is a real crap shoot . Spec on RCs = the lottery; but it can be fun when you win

Mike

gonzer · February 29, 2004 1:05AM

Case in point is Ryan's cards especially his rookie. Leading up to '93 there was a frenzy at every card show in So. Cal. to get as many Ryans as possible. Prices for his rookie shot up to 1500.00. I myself bought as many different Ryans that I could and spent quite a bit. After being out of the hobby for the last 10 years I saw my investment go WAY downhill. Not to say all his cards de-valued but trying to find someone to buy his OPC rookie and expect the $$ you paid for it, chances are pretty slim especially when all my cards are non-slabbed.

Lothar52 · February 29, 2004 2:47AM

when i was collecting in 93...before i took a 6 year hiatus....Ryan was the KING of sportscards and everyone wanted his RC...it was unattainable for me and my friends. Now a psa 7 which back then would have been called close to mint....can fetch a much smaller fee then the 1500-2000 it did back then. I doubt mantle will ever experience this drop.....wouldnt it be wild if he did?

loth

gonzer · February 29, 2004 7:24AM

My sentiments exactly Lothar. I must have amassed over 1500 different cards and stickers of Nolan and now, well I still have 4 binders bulging with his stuff. No different than the speculation that drives the numismatic hobby.

jaybyrd · February 29, 2004 12:08PM

I think Mattingly cards will hold value whether or not he enters the hall of fame because he was a Yankee, and seems to be pretty well thought of by people who aren't even Yankee fans.

I love all the people on e-bay who say all Pete Rose cards will go sky-high when he enters the hall of fame. There may be a slight rise for a while if he is elected, but expect to see a downward turn on his cards after he is elected.

DeutscherGeist · February 29, 2004 3:16PM

Jaybyrd,

Well said. Mattingly cards will be steady even if he does not make the Hall of Fame. He is part of 80's baseball history, so anytime in 2040 when ESPN talks about the "good ole days," they cannot do a documentary without at least mentioning his name. Not only was he the best player at the time, but he also holds the MLB record for most grand slams a year and most home runs in a 8 day stretch.

Pete Rose: His cards will not sky rocket once he gets elected. One would see more people wanting to buy them on ebay, but once the fanfare is over, it will drop slightly. It is not a good idea to hype a card on an ebay auction. People know what they are bidding on, so any hype is excessive and very unprofessional that it may turn a lot of people off.

Rookie Card Values and the Hall of Fame

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