Any futurists out there?

67standup

Looking back on the hobby/industry, there are some notable events:

Transformation from collectible-hobby to investment-industry (even pure collectors
cannot escape the value component of their collections)
Emergence of large-scale card shows in late 70's
1981: Fleer and Donruss (cards are junk, but further opened door to competition)
SCD: linked buyers and sellers like never before, spurned many businesses
Split among buyers/sellers of vintage and mass-produced cards
Internet (EBAY in particular)
Third party grading (no comment necessary)
Non-baseball finally gets respect in terms of investment value

Any thoughts on what can significantly drive down this industry? What can take it to another level?

uniship

Devil's advocate:

Fake cards. Trimmed and restored cards.

If it were not for these issues, I would invest far more into cards.

67standup

There are many events I didn't list. Good point as there's a definite correlation between potential for monetary gain and wrongdoing.

Skycap

I would add these to your list:

-Advent of the mega-auctions, such as Mastro, Superior, Lelands, Sothebys, etc.
-The rise and fall of Mr. Mint as one of the top forces in the hobby
-The transition from a virtual monopoly by Topps to countless numbers of manufacturers (you sort of touched on that)
-Chase cards, limited edition cards and cards containing other stuff (like uniform pieces)
-Development of high-tech cards
-Graded card registries


Skycap

Basilone

who will drive down the hobby?

unscrupulous a-holes.

jrinck

Here's an opinion of mine that isn't going to be popular with many on this board:

Within the next few years, the fanfare and popularity of the Set Registry will die down a bit, with many of the current high-profile collectors selling off their sets. As such, the market will be flooded with hundreds of thousands of commons (albeit high grade) and the cost of vintage commons will drop drastically. The star cards will always be in demand, however, and rare in high grade, so their values will not be affected by the decline of the Set Registry.

So I envision a day in the not-too-distant future where, say, 1971 Topps commons in PSA 8 will sell in the three to four dollar range. In other words, over time, the cost of commons will approach that of the equalivent quality raw, but with a modest premium due to grading/slabbing.

In a nutshell, what I'm saying is that the cost of vintage commons is high right now due to the competition of the set registry. Once that competition wanes, the subsequent drop in demand will see a flooding of the market for these otherwise relatively less desirable cards.

67standup

Not a popular opinion? I welcome that day! I do appreciate the pros of third party grading, but think the high premiums for commons and anything PSA 9/10 prices have gotten out of hand. Moreover, the disparity between super stars of a certain set and commons shouldn't be so high if rarity is a factor. Why should a 1975 Brett be worth xxxxtimes as much as a common of the same set, since the same number of each were produced? In fact, there's probably less of that common since people tend to hang on to stars.

Two predictions:

The market will appreciate rarity more, e.g., a 1968 Venezuelan Ryan rookie in mid grade versus a Barry Bonds in ultra-superduper-pristine-watchamacallit grade.

Pre-WWII issues will be in even greater demand.

Now these two events certainly don't rival major events of the hobby as listed.

For that prediction: counterfeit cards will become very sophisticated. Once high-end counterfeiters enter the scene - not Joe with a red pen in his garage - it will kick the industry back down into more of a hobby.

BugOnTheRug

jrinck,



<< <i>Within the next few years, the fanfare and popularity of the Set Registry will die down a bit, with many of the current high-profile collectors selling off their sets. >>




<< <i>Once that competition wanes, the subsequent drop in demand will see a flooding of the market for these otherwise relatively less desirable cards. >>


Are you seeing this now? I can respect your opinion, but what is happening that makes you come to this conclusion?

Conversely, the registry (and don't forget ebay) seems to grow stronger all the time; sure people sell their high powered sets from time to time, but it seems like there's always someone ready with the strong coin to buy. I remember Norte saying something like the 'trend' he sees with set building is that once the set is completed, it 's not such a big deal anymore and away the set may go. A good analogy would be the dog catching the car - what do you do with it now? . Maybe collectors get bored with their accomplishment and just want to move on. If the trend is cashing out, don't you think there will be gobs of 'new' money (meaning new collectors) thrown at it even 5 or 10 years from now? Grown men collecting cards will ALWAYS be competitive towards one anothers collections (especially as displayed in the public spotlight as it is now), and will ALWAYS be willing to throw major coin in that direction, even if that includes the commons to make the sets. The only way I see differently is if the registry is discarded. And if that happens, I won't be surprised if another way of 'registering' (read competition) is created. I think the 'publicity' of set collections is here to stay...........and that means stars and commons alike.

While certainly not in the inner circles of the workings, knowledge, and business of collectables, to the fella on the street like me, things seem pretty strong (at least for pre-1980 stuff) for the long term.

I just can't see 71 8's commons selling for $3-4 a pop anytime soon. If that's the case, I'll start saving my coin now!

BOTR