Wow! Gold dropped a lot today!
Monstavet
Posts: 1,235 ✭✭
Down over 10 bucks and bordering on crossing into the 300s again.
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Russ, NCNE
<< <i>Just a temporary correction on the road to $1000+ per ounce. >>
The japanese, you got to hand it to them. They have been trying hard to stop their currency from strenghtening. With this bogus terror alert, they are looking more and more desperate. What next ?
<< <i>Just a temporary correction on the road to $1000+ per ounce.
Russ, NCNE >>
Sincere question. Do you really believe that? Why?
If there is a swing the other way with the dollar gaining strength over the Euro, you will feel a sudden sinking feeling. Stick with coins that will always be strong, even in gold, with key dates!
NEVER LET HIPPO MOUTH OVERLOAD HUMMINGBIRD BUTT!!!
WORK HARDER!!!!
Millions on WELFARE depend on you!
Monsatvet. No village idiot where I live, we all take turns.
<< <i>Sincere question. Do you really believe that? >>
Nope. Was just getting the claim out of the way for the gold bugs.
Russ, NCNE
Thank you.
Forum AdministratorPSA & PSA/DNA ForumModerator@collectors.com | p 800.325.1121 | PSAcard.com
Gold 397.90 -12.30
Welcome back Monsta.
The Japanese basically provided instant liquidity of many BILLIONS of US Dollars that found their way instantly into bonds. These games and daily massive manipulations of all the major markets (stock, commodites, PM's etc) will be the daily routine as time goes on. Hang on to your seat, volatility is coming back.
roadrunner
$165 BILLION worth of our treasuries in 2003. Way to go guys.
Post 1943.
roadrunner
Oh while I'm on a roll regarding the fudging of numbers, did you know that they are considering changing the categorization of your local Mickey D's hamburger flipper from that of a service job to a manufacturing position? You see, they "assemble" the cash product! It would be hilarious were it not for the eventual consequences.
Forum AdministratorPSA & PSA/DNA ForumModerator@collectors.com | p 800.325.1121 | PSAcard.com
<< <i>Gee, anyone noticed that the (delayed) CPI was issued today? Yep, we have no inflation! >>
I can guarantee that after NOV 2004, the feds will notice inflation and raise rates dramatically. I also believe that they will raise 25 points before that. They should change the name of the Federal Reserve and people want to believe their numbers, ooh feds said this, feds said that, Alan Greenspan is the Chairman of an Enron like organization and yet no one audits the numbers he pulls out of the air. It gives them a position of authority. They should just be called Don of Private Bankers (DPB).
Do people believe Federal Express is a government organization ? I hope not, then why do they believe the Federal Reserve.
<< <i>
<< <i>Gee, anyone noticed that the (delayed) CPI was issued today? Yep, we have no inflation! >>
>>
It was reported on NBR last night that the CPI was up .5% for Jan and the core rate increased to .2%
A check of the Bureau of Labor Statistics site seems to confirm these numbers.
It may well give gold a big kick on Monday though most traders avoid action on one month's numbers.
I've been saying in each of these threads, gold's not that strong, but I won't knock a huge gain a great speculator, it's that our dollar is so weak against foreign currency gold is skyrocketing.
You'd probably be better off if you invested in Euros a year ago instead of gold. Probably less volatile as well. Perhaps not as fun to look at though, especially if you're investing in common date Saints.
<< <i> Gee, anyone noticed that the (delayed) CPI was issued today? Yep, we have no inflation! Hahahahahaha >>
Yea, no inflation if don't eat any food, use any gas or heat your house
coinpage.com
One way to play both the gold and numismatic side of the equation.
I would expect similar type gains from this month to some point later in the year. Gold is far stronger than most of the currencies out there battling it out. At some point in time, all currencies will be falling in price compared to gold. It is just a matter of time.
I lost what little touch of "respect" I had for the CPI index once I noticed on the web site that they use a "geometric average" in determining some or all of the separate constituents. Geometric averages are used in modeling to eliminate peaks and only consider the base (carrier) wave form so to speak. Unfortunately you and I can get killed by peaks over the long haul. There is no geoaveraging in our paychecks or the things we buy.
The arithmetic & geomean average of the numbers (10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10) is 10. Simple. But if you mix 'em up like this: (1,19,1,19,1,19,1,19,1,19), the arith. average is still 10, but the goemean (multiplicative root ave) is the 10th root of the PRODUCT of those numbers (ie. 4.34). Now which # is more inflated looking, the 4.58 or the 10? The CPI says this is 4.34% .....what do you think? Have fun with your numbers.
I read this on a web site yesterday. The GDP for Japan in the 4th qtr was reported as 7%. Quite impressive. Yet that is an annualized number. The 4th quarter gain was really only 1/4 of that.
On top of that, a new accounting change was used in calculating the number which was buried in a footnote. If the old method was used this fell to 2% for the year or 0.5% for the quarter. Numbers are fun.... and so easily massaged.
roadrunner
If I do a "back of the envelope calculation" based on my own experience and observations over the past 30 years, the CPI numbers seem about right.
(However, living in CT, where a modest home has increased in value from $ 50,000 to $ 2 million over the past 30 years, I can see that you view might be biased.
Have you worked out these differences on your own or verified which of the constituents uses the diff methods? The inferences that I got in reading on the CPI index web site was that they switched entirely to the geo averages in 1998. I may be misunderstanding their point however.
Still, the insidious nature of even a 3% "real" inflation rate over 100 years is to reduce your value by 95%. The slow transfer of wealth to the bureaucracy is what occurs. The real inflation rate is closer to 3% than 1%. AT least my standard of living here CT tells me that.
My house did appreciate 60% over the past 6 years but if it were worth $2 MILL now, I'd have sold it and had $1.8 MILL in coins now!
roadrunner
immediately sell all your gold bullion/ gold coins / gem generic saints
and buy paper usa dollars and hold then in non interest bearing accounts
yes yes
michael
RR -- I think we agree on this one. Personally, one impression that most bankers seem to have, which I disagree with, is that a little bit of inflation is a necessary thing. Severe deflation is of course generally disruptive, but I would rather that the central bankers target a range of -1% to 1 % (ie, have a zero goal, recognizing that exactly zero cannot be achieved) rather than 1 - 3 % which seems to be more typical. I do not believe there is any evidence that very slight deflation hurts consumer spending. People just aren't motivated to save with the knowledge that prices will be 0.5 lower next year.
Perhaps I am too sentimental, but I find it distressing to think that at some point, people will think about dollars the way they now think about yen or "pennies" -- as you point out .97 ^ 100 is about 0.05, so that, even with a very slow stable depreciation of the dollar, it will eventually become virtually worthless. The only way to avoid this is to target zero inflation, and back it up with discipline.